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I think both sides just wait it out at this point. If I'm Knies I sign for $7.5 x 5... but if I'm the Leafs, that's a BIG reach. If you take the deals for wingers at/above what you implied @ 6 you've got Hagel, $6.5Mx 8 as a 24yo, and he scored 75 pts (36 goals). Next winger up from the last 12...

If I were Knies, at 6 I think I'd just bet on myself to continue producing. I think we're past the point where there's any discount for early signing. Wingers who got 6 last year included Tyler Tiffoli (33 g, 32 yo, $6M x 4), Owen Tippett (28g, 25yo, $6.2M x 8), Tom Wilson(WTF, 29yo x 7)...

I've been thinking this. The Marner stuff now reminds me a lot of the people back in the day who really wanted Sundin to be Lindros and couldn't let go of Gilmour/Clark. Right down to statements about how the Leafs would never win with Sundin as Captain, and then declaring themselves correct...

Brian Burke, is that you? It's a fun narrative. Hire a GM in 2018, and then fire him after 3 (winning) seasons. Hire an up and coming coach, then fire him after his first full season in the job. How could Shanahan have missed it.

Liljegren, like all the Leafs, is learning a new system. So far he's been slower than others to figure out how to apply his skills in that system. I'm of the opinion that his skills are greater than some of those who have figured it out faster, and given time, those skills will show up. It's...

I really hope this is the case. I've been asking myself across the offseason what would be the indicator that the Leafs special teams can be counted on to not go missing again, and I think that getting production from the second PP unit could be it.

I don't get the jump from holdout to signs for less money "in a heartbeat"? My recollection is that the fanbase, media and Dubas wanted the main comparable to be Pastrnak's extremely team friendly deal, but Nylander's camp didn't accept that. The moment Pastrnak signed his deal, every fanbase...

Why? Outliers aren't inherently bad things. As some feedback - and this is just me personally, so take fwiw - when I read your arguments, I keep thinking they're halfway there. For example, you strongly dislike the Leafs cap structure. Your argument as I've seen it is that it's bad because...

I'd love a window into the alternate world where Nylander signs that deal (Assuming Nylander signs it, which isn't a small assumption). Just looking at the timeline, Nylander actually signed at end of November 2018 (right up against the wire as the story goes, with Nylander himself being the...

Great concept, do we have indication that either of these players would have signed these? For example, my recollection of the Nylander signing was there were 2 sources of outrage at the time of the signing: 1) Nylander's refusal to sign a bridge deal, which was still the norm at the time and...

So, how do you think the Leafs should have handled any one of those scenarios? Or are we just complaining that we don't like the way money flows in the NHL?

I've been wondering about this with Robertson. I think it's actually a really interesting case for whether the RFA rules actually work. As you point out, Robertson's issue is that as strapped as the leafs are, if he signs with someone for ~$1.5, the Leafs probably just match. No upside to...

Marner's playoff issue in 2024 wasn't tighter checking, it was that he didn't produce on the Powerplay. The Leafs went 1 for 21 at the same time as the Penalty Kill (of which Marner is also a key feature) crumbled (though to be fair, it's not like this was a strength). In '22 and '23, Marner...

If we're going to get meta, I'd suggest taking it up a level further and not getting to attached to any sort of "playoff style" (and beyond that, I think you've got some legwork to do on your premise re: playmakers, but meta's the phrase i'm bumping on, so let's stay there). Right now it's the...

Feels like reaching. Biggest reason Savard didn't have bigger playoff numbers was he played most of his career on teams that didn't make the playoffs. Argue that's on him if you like, but it's a team game. Even if your take holds somewhat true, Savard in his 25 playoff games doesn't have the...

At risk of missing the point... I don't think that McCauley fits this narrative. McCauley's 01-02 playoffs were probably the only time he really performed to his potential in the NHL with the Leafs (possibly the first half of the regular season back in Cujo's first year in Toronto). With...

Yes. Players like Marner are extremely hard to come by. Trying to be clever with cap space is an easy way to make the team worse.

That's a generous serving of irony there. In the hypothetical where we replace Marner's $11M with 2x $5.5 players, that's no guarantee of quality. Last year the leafs spent $5.5M on Tyler Bertuzzi and $5M on TJ Brodie. If that's what the Leafs got for Marner, that does not read as an...

I think it's polarising because the bolded statement is only true if we've decided the Leafs are better without Marner. I think there are a lot of people who have internalised the "nobody else has as top heavy a salary cap structure as the Leafs" to mean "you can't win this way". While that's a...

Media sells on entertainment, and the drama of running a big star out of town is more entertaining that a nuanced reflection. People are uncomfortable with relative probability, even if we don't "believe in fate", we tend to become fatalistic after the fact... "thing x was never going to...