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  1. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    Well, as I said, it's thought bubble of "I bet you could make the numbers work, so I wonder if someone has and I've just never heard of it because it's too mundane for news" rather than carefully considered business case of "someone should do this", but to hash it around a bit: - Would either...
  2. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    Exactly... unemployment insurance. You'd take out a policy which said "I will pay x into insurance fund y. Then when I'm negotiating an RFA deal if negotiations aren't going well, I can continue to get paid out of the fund". It would work on the one to many principle that any given year, few...
  3. IJustLurkHere

    what will Willie boy sign for?

    Topic is locked so I can't grab the quote, but FTR, #12877 was in the 2014-15 NHL thread: It will remain a classic.
  4. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    I've found myself wondering (i.e. I really don't know) whether there's some sort of income protection insurance available to pro athletes to cover these situations. It would seem to me there should be a market, as relatively few actually pursue a lengthy dispute, but it's valuable to be able to...
  5. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    That would be awesome. I hope that not only is it true, but that going forward that Dubas tips all his transactions this way.
  6. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    Management won't be so emotional over it. It may well go down to the wire if both sides believe the other is going to ease their demands as the window closes, but that's just tactics. Any attempt to be punitive would be a risk to a deal getting done.
  7. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    I've thought a while that one of the most interesting things about the standoff is that is IS hypothetical - there's a total lack of info and leaking to the media. The TO/Leafs press is voracious (many wouldn't put some of them past making stuff up entirely...) but all we've had is: 1) "Nylander...
  8. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    Without necessarily disagreeing... 7 years of $400k is $2.8 million dollars. At some point it?s real money.
  9. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    As far as fan expectations go, maybe, but if you're Dubas right now, you've got a 1 Dec deadline to decide that the Leafs are or are not going to be contenders. If you decide yes, you need to maximise the assets by either signing or trading Nylander. While it's theoretically possible to both...
  10. IJustLurkHere

    Stars @ Leafs - Nov. 1st, 7:00pm - TSN4, TSN 1050

    So I would only describe myself as a novice of advanced metrics, but surely part of their goal is to bring luck (or if we don't like the word, chance, or variation) into the discussion, not try to remove it? Probabilistically speaking, luck is in math... if I have a coin, everyone knows the...
  11. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    Is it though? We?ve gotten used to every decision in Leafsland being about the long term, but let us look at this year in isolation for a moment. The Leafs are 8-5, and when healthy have an amazing offence, great PP, solid goaltending... and cap space to burn. They also have a lot of middling...
  12. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    In the event of (c), the Leafs will have squandered one of their 4 greatest assets in a year where there is an excellent opportunity for a cup due to the low salaries of Matthews and Marner. I wonder what the blowback will be if we trade Nylander and he immediately signs for $7.
  13. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    Since Michael Nylander made over $25m as an NHL player (the bulk after gaining his reputation for being difficult), and William has already made around $3M, I doubt William?s lack of income is presenting the cash flow problems that you or I might experience in a similar position. I believe...
  14. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    Except this whole ?bad spot? thing is entirely premised on what Nylander is rumoured to be asking, without regard for what the Leafs May be offering. If we go back to the Sportsnet article quoting execs saying he was asking to much, there was a Kypreos suggestion the Leafs were offering 4 years...
  15. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    No problem - wasn't asking you to plant your flag on that hill and defend it forever more, just thought I might have missed some news. My worry is Nylander might dig in and make it a test case for 2nd contracts... but otherwise, the shift I think we've seen is that teams and players are both...
  16. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    Is there any reason to believe an ask of $8Mx 3? There?s good reason bridged deals come with that deep discount.
  17. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    I believe Trouba is on a 1 year $5.5M arbitrated deal because his demand on anything long term was $8M+. I suspect in the end he'll get his $8M+ rather than getting traded too. The few young, top end RHD (e.g Trouba, Rastolainen) which would make it worth trading are not likely to be traded...
  18. IJustLurkHere

    Contracts for the Big-3

    So, I?m not sure how people believe contract negotiations work, but No negotiation I?ve ever heard works by a TV like scripted process where 6 turns to 8 turns to 6.5 turns to 7.5 turns to 7 and everyone shakes hands... While there seems to be a view that the Leafs wanted 6ish (whether 6, 6.5...
  19. IJustLurkHere

    Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM

    It can happen during the season, but would be incredibly unlikely, and it?s not a way for a team to get a discount. There just isn?t mutual incentive. Marner and his agent know as well as anyone that he?s a great shot at 100 points this year. There?s no urgency for them to sign unless they get...
  20. IJustLurkHere

    Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM

    Yeah, if it gets that far, I think a trade the most likely outcome. I hope it won?t... realistically, this was always going to be a tough negotiation (regardless of Taveres), but my concern is this has the ingredients to go deep... and as a Leafs fan it has the perfect feel to Be the other shoe...
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