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Avalanche Sign MacKinnon [7 years, 6.3M AAV]

Deebo

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https://twitter.com/MikeChambers/status/751527049039192064

https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/751527904660582400


Nathan MacKinnon signs 7-year contract with Avs
? Mike Chambers (@MikeChambers) July 8, 2016

AAV here is $6.3M  https://t.co/1wKJ0gsEqG
? Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) July 8, 2016
 
Steal.

I think this deal, as well as Scheifele's, show that the concern of a Stamkos UFA deal with the Leafs would have made signing Matthews, Marner and Nylander extremely difficult was a little misguided.
 
Peter D. said:
Steal.

I think this deal, as well as Scheifele's, show that the concern of a Stamkos UFA deal with the Leafs would have made signing Matthews, Marner and Nylander extremely difficult was a little misguided.

I'm confused, steal or righteous comparables? Also, signing them wouldn't have been difficult, it's that other issue, and maybe that top end ufa dollar that would have been a problem wasn't out there for dear old Steve, hard to say.
 
I was very curious to see what the Avs would do with this contract. MacKinnon's had a pretty interesting career. 1st overall pick. Scored 63 points in 82 games in his rookie year and everybody figured he'd be the next PPG centre in the league. Followed it up with a disappointing sophomore season and even his scoring in year 3 didn't quite reach the level of his rookie season.

I remember after his rookie season he bulked up big time during the offseason. Apparently gained 12-13 pounds of muscle and weighed 208 pounds. His combine measurement put him at 190 lbs. Potentially a cautionary tale that getting bigger doesn't mean getting better? Especially for someone who relies so heavily on speed?

His training camp pictures per season are also funny:

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CarltonTheBear said:
I was very curious to see what the Avs would do with this contract. MacKinnon's had a pretty interesting career. 1st overall pick. Scored 63 points in 82 games in his rookie year and everybody figured he'd be the next PPG centre in the league. Followed it up with a disappointing sophomore season and even his scoring in year 3 didn't quite reach the level of his rookie season.

Yeah. If he can get back the offensive flair he showed in his rookie year, this is a great contract. If he gets stuck in the 50-60 point range, it's still not awful, but it's not spectacular, either.
 
Tigger said:
Peter D. said:
Steal.

I think this deal, as well as Scheifele's, show that the concern of a Stamkos UFA deal with the Leafs would have made signing Matthews, Marner and Nylander extremely difficult was a little misguided.

I'm confused, steal or righteous comparables? Also, signing them wouldn't have been difficult, it's that other issue, and maybe that top end ufa dollar that would have been a problem wasn't out there for dear old Steve, hard to say.

Steal as in I think this will look great for the Avs during the duration of this contract.  I think MacKinnon has the potential to be a top 5 to 10 player in the league.

As for the comparable aspect, people were concerned that those three would do great things during their ELC and would jump to $8-9 million salaries.  Whereas guys like MacK and Barkov are signed to $6 millionish contracts and if even two of the Leafs' studs reach their level we should be thrilled.
 
Peter D. said:
As for the comparable aspect, people were concerned that those three would do great things during their ELC and would jump to $8-9 million salaries.  Whereas guys like MacK and Barkov are signed to $6 millionish contracts and if even two of the Leafs' studs reach their level we should be thrilled.

It's probably pretty fair to say that nobody wants to re-litigate the Stamkos stuff but to me these contracts kind of show the opposite and I think you're kind of conflating two separate issues from that thread.

Mackinnon, Barkov and Schiefle have all become very good young players but they're also a case in point of how even exceptionally talented young players tend to have gradual development curves. In the nine combined seasons they've played they have just two 60+ point seasons between the three of them(Mackinnon's first and Schiefle's last) and three if you want to give Barkov credit for just missing that mark in 66 games last year.

If Nylander, Matthews and Marner have a roughly similar development curve then, yes, it would be reasonable to think that the Leafs could sign them to roughly similar extensions.

The issue there, though, wasn't whether or not Stamkos could then fit under the cap it was that if these guys have a roughly similar development curve(and that's to Schiefle/Barkov and not Mackinnon's weird stop and start one) then realistically the Leafs wouldn't be very competitive until year 3 at the earliest at which point you've burned the most valuable years of the Stamkos deal on a not very good team.

The idea that Marner/Nylander/Matthews might get substantially higher extensions was connected to the proposed(although not very popular) idea that they would form the basis of a competitive team immediately and produce results more similar to Toews/Kane in their early years.

(Kane and Toews, let's not forget, produced at a significantly higher rate than any of these three guys in their first three years. The least productive year either of them had pre-extension was roughly comparable to the most productive year Schiefle/Mackinnon/Barkov have ever had.)

So like I said, you're confusing two different points. Either the Leafs wouldn't get Toews/Kane like production from those guys in their first few years in which case the timeframe didn't make a ton of sense or they would get that production and then it would be unreasonable to expect them to sign these sorts of extensions.

The Kane/Toews extensions were for 10.6% of a 59.4 million dollar cap(6.3 million). Right now the Cap's at 73 million. If it grows at 5% per year over the next three years then 10.6% of the cap would be just under 9 million per.
 

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