Leafs chances for making the playoffs this year...

[ZBBM]

Is it too early to start a speculation thread on our chances for making the playoffs?

It's never too early.

Looking over the roster in the latest THN (and BTW Clarkson looks like a pretty mean dude on their PS'd cover), the state of the forwards looks worrisome to me.  We won't be as speedy, that's for sure. 

The defense could go either way: if Gardiner and Franson continue to blossom, & Gunnar keeps on keeping on, we should do OK.  The PK with Bolland added to McClement should be good, and that's a big factor. 

Another wildcard is goaltending.  I am not totally convinced that Reimer/Bernier can get it done, but our goaltending duo looks more solid than it's been in years.

I think it'll be touch and go for us to get in this season, just because the odds got longer with realignment (more teams in conference, DET in division).  I could see us winking in and out of the playoffs for the next few years.

 

[Redleaf]

Is it too early to start a speculation thread on our chances for making the playoffs?

It's never too early.

Looking over the roster in the latest THN (and BTW Clarkson looks like a pretty mean dude on their PS'd cover), the state of the forwards looks worrisome to me.  We won't be as speedy, that's for sure. 

The defense could go either way: if Gardiner and Franson continue to blossom, & Gunnar keeps on keeping on, we should do OK.  The PK with Bolland added to McClement should be good, and that's a big factor. 

Another wildcard is goaltending.  I am not totally convinced that Reimer/Bernier can get it done, but our goaltending duo looks more solid than it's been in years.

I think it'll be touch and go for us to get in this season, just because the odds got longer with realignment (more teams in conference, DET in division).  I could see us winking in and out of the playoffs for the next few years.

I think our chances of getting in are about the same as they were last year. However, I think Nonis revamped the lineup with the hopes of becoming a much tougher playoff team, should we get in. It should be very interesting to see how this team gels with the all the new faces. The most intriguing thing to watch, at least for me, will be how the goaltending shakes out. Is Bernier better than Reimer? I have my doubts, but if he is, we'll be watching more Leaf playoff hockey next year!

 

[Bill_Berg]

If the goaltending improves over last year, we'll be in.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If the goaltending improves over last year, we'll be in.

While I guess this is technically true, are you suggesting that our goaltending wasn't very good last season? Because if I had to choose two players as our MVP last season, Reimer would absolutely be one of them. His save percentage was 8th in the league at .924. NHL.com's stats for this only go as far as 1997-98 but we didn't have a goalie put up a SA% that high in that entire time. Reimer was arguably the reason we made the playoffs last season. And while his play last season was certainly amazing, I have my doubts that he or Bernier will be able to replicate that this coming season so the team in front of him better be a lot better defensively.

 

[dappleganger]

If the goaltending improves over last year, we'll be in.

What if the goaltending stays the same?

I'm ok with Reimer's 2.46 GAA and .924 SV% from last year. I think it'll be hard for him to improve on those stats so hopefully he can stay healthy. Also, his record of 19-8-5 was great too.

Bernier is an improvement over Scrivens.

Are people actually worried about this team's goaltending?

 

[Tigger]

Provided the Franson and Kadri contracts are suitably addressed ( and they don't have to run with a 20 man roster for too long ) I think they have a pretty good shot at it.

 

[L K]

I guess my problem is just that the new playoff system is kind of stupid.  It's not going to be easier to make the playoffs, but harder.  I'm not convinced that the Leafs are clearly in the top 4 teams in their division.  Relying on that 5th wildcard spot potentially is going to be tough too. 

Having an uneven conference split was a mistake IMO and I'm not sure the playoffs needed such a drastic retool.  Just take the top 8 teams from each conference and be done with it.  Garbage new system.

 

[mr grieves]

I don't think a 11.5 SH% is likely to repeat, and I don't think a 7th (?) in the NHL SV% is going to much improved upon. Giving up a bunch of low quality shots mightn't be a detriment to the team's GA, but it does mean the team's spending too much time chasing the puck around their own end. So, unless more regular play from defensemen adept at moving the puck speeds the transition and leads to more shots for, I think it'll be pretty hard to make it in, even without the realignment.

 

[maplesyrup]

50/50. Either we make it or we don't. 

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I don't think a 11.5 SH% is likely to repeat, and I don't think a 7th (?) in the NHL SV% is going to much improved upon. Giving up a bunch of low quality shots mightn't be a detriment to the team's GA, but it does mean the team's spending too much time chasing the puck around their own end. So, unless more regular play from defensemen adept at moving the puck speeds the transition and leads to more shots for, I think it'll be pretty hard to make it in, even without the realignment.

I'd say that Clarkson and Bolland can effectively replace the production lost by Frattin and MacArthur. A full season of Lupul (even with a decline in SH%) should give us similar numbers when it's all said and done.

Injuries will be a deciding factor (water is wet).

IMO they'll make it.

 

[Kin]

There are holes on the team but I think that's probably true for 27 teams in the league. Honestly with the league as tight as it is it really is going to come down to things like injuries and luck for just around everyone.

 

[Bender]

I think it'll probably be a tight squeeze. I picture a finsh anywhere from a low of 10th to a high of 6th.

 

[Deebo]

Does anyone else think Toronto might be in the weakest division?

I think 3 of the bottom 5 clubs in the NHL are in the new Atlantic division -- Tampa Bay, Florida and Buffalo.

The other 2 being Colarado and Calgary.

I might be off on my assessment of the bottom 5 clubs in the NHL.

 

[nutman]

I expect the Leafs to step it up this season, I think we will be in the upper part of the top 8. As for the playoffs, there to far away to call who will be in. But the Leafs, barring a major injury explosion should be in the top eight.

 

[bustaheims]

I expect the Leafs to step it up this season, I think we will be in the upper part of the top 8. As for the playoffs, there to far away to call who will be in. But the Leafs, barring a major injury explosion should be in the top eight.

There is no more "top 8." It's now the top 3 in each division that make the playoffs, along with the top 2 point getters that finish outside the top 3 in their division.

 

[Redleaf]

I expect the Leafs to step it up this season, I think we will be in the upper part of the top 8. As for the playoffs, there to far away to call who will be in. But the Leafs, barring a major injury explosion should be in the top eight.

There is no more "top 8." It's now the top 3 in each division that make the playoffs, along with the top 2 point getters that finish outside the top 3 in their division.

Ah yes. Things are about to get even more confusing this NHL season.....http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2013/08/14/the-new-playoff-format-is-baffling-awful-and-interesting-i-guess/

 

[Bullfrog]

There is no more "top 8." It's now the top 3 in each division that make the playoffs, along with the top 2 point getters that finish outside the top 3 in their division.

That math isn't working for me. Oh wait, just as I was typing it, it sunk in. So two wildcard spots PER CONFERENCE.

I'm not quite sure how the seeding works. Same as before, where division winners are now seeded 1 and 2 regardless of points and the other six (no.s 2 and 3 from each division + wildcard 1 and 2) are seeded sequentially? Or are the wildcards automatically 7 and 8 regardless of points/tie-breakers? So (sample points):

1. Division winner 1
2. Division winner 2
3. No. 2 or 3
4. No. 2 or 3
5. No. 2 or 3
6. No. 2 or 3
7. Wildcard 1
8. Wildcard 2

Or something stupid like this, where the no.2's are slotted 3 and 4 regardless of the points the no.3's and WCs have (e.g. where the no.2 in Division A gets seeded higher than no.3 in Division B even though they have less points, or the same points but less regulation wins, bags of peanuts, or whatever convoluted criteria set forth by the NHL):

1. Division winner 1
2. Division winner 2
3. No. 2a
4. No. 2b
5. No. 3a
6. No. 3b
7. Wildcard 1
8. Wildcard 2

 

[bustaheims]

That math isn't working for me. Oh wait, just as I was typing it, it sunk in. So two wildcard spots PER CONFERENCE.

I'm not quite sure how the seeding works. Same as before, where division winners are now seeded 1 and 2 regardless of points and the other six (no.s 2 and 3 from each division + wildcard 1 and 2) are seeded sequentially? Or are the wildcards automatically 7 and 8 regardless of points/tie-breakers? So (sample points):

1. Division winner 1
2. Division winner 2
3. No. 2 or 3
4. No. 2 or 3
5. No. 2 or 3
6. No. 2 or 3
7. Wildcard 1
8. Wildcard 2

Or something stupid like this, where the no.2's are slotted 3 and 4 regardless of the points the no.3's and WCs have (e.g. where the no.2 in Division A gets seeded higher than no.3 in Division B even though they have less points, or the same points but less regulation wins, bags of peanuts, or whatever convoluted criteria set forth by the NHL):

1. Division winner 1
2. Division winner 2
3. No. 2a
4. No. 2b
5. No. 3a
6. No. 3b
7. Wildcard 1
8. Wildcard 2

Like I said, there's no top 8, so trying to look at in that perspective is just going to lead to something that doesn't work. The new format works out to be, in the first round, the higher ranked division winner plays the lower ranked wildcard and the lower ranked division winner plays the higher ranked wild card. After that, the 2 and 3 from each division play each other - no seeding by conference or anything like that.

For the second round, the winner of the 2/3 matchup plays the winner of the matchup that included the team that won their division. From there, the way it plays out should be pretty obvious.

The format is similar to how things were before the league went to the "top 8 per conference" format, but, with the addition of wildcards instead of having the top 4 teams from each division make it, regardless.

 

[L K]

Yeah the playoff format is as such:

Atlantic
1 Boston 100 pts
2 Buffalo  99 pts
3 Detroit  98 pts
4 Florida    97 pts
5 Montreal  80 pts
6 Ottawa    70 pts
7 Tampa    69 pts
8 Toronto    60 pts

Metropolitan Division
1. Carolina  99 pts
2. Columbus 98 pts
3. New Jersey 97 pts
4. New York (I) 96 pts
5. New York (R) 90 pts
6. Philadelphia 80 pts
7. Pittsburgh 70 pts
8. Washington 60 pts

Round 1 of Playoffs:
M1. Carolina vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A1. Boston vs. WC1  Florida Panthers
A2. Buffalo Sabres vs. A3. Detroit Red Wings
M2. Columbus Blue Jackets vs. M3. New Jersey Devils

Round 2 of Playoffs:
Winner of M1/WC2 vs. Winner of M2/M3
Winner of A1/WC1 vs. Winner of A1/A2

Round 3 of playoffs:
Obvious

Where I think this format gets pretty silly is how it can really screw up the quality of opponent you face in the postseason.

The Atlantic division could have 5 teams make the playoffs with point totals of 100, 99, 98, 98, 97 while the Metropolitan division could have 3 teams make the playoffs with 90 pts, 89 pts, 88 pts

The Metropolitan division winner would play the 98 point "1st wildcard" team from the Atlantic.  Meanwhile the 89 and 88 point Atlantic teams would face off against each other.  Conversely the 100 point conference winning atlantic team would face a 97 point team rather than the 3 other teams that were inferior over the course of the season. 

This "old/new" playoff format rewards teams with a bad divison way too much.

 

[Bullfrog]

Got it. So really there's only going to be one possible out-of-division matchup in the first round per conference: when both wild cards come from the division. So it'll essentially be:

Division A1 v.s Division A4 (or WC2/Div.B5, if both WCs come from Div.B)
Division A2 vs. Division A3

Division B1 vs. Division B4 (WC1)
Division B2 vs. Division B3