Leafs @ Wings - Jan. 25th, 7:00pm - SN, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

@

22-14-9, 53 points | 20-19-9, 49 points

Projected Lines

Hyman-Matthews-Brown Komarov-Kadri-Nylander JVR-Bozak-Marner Martin-Gauthier-Soshnikov Gardiner-Carrick Marincin-Zaitsev Hunwick-Polak Andersen ​

Nyquist-Zetterberg-Mantha Athanasiou-Nielsen-Tatar Abdelkader-Sheahan-Jurco Miller-Helm-Glendening DeKeyser-Green Ericsson-Ouellet Kronwall-Jensen Mrazek​

Scratches

Morgan Rielly Josh Leivo Frank Corrado ​

Ryan Sproul Alexey Marchenko ​

Game Notes

TOR
?Andersen (20-10-8, 2.62 GAA, .920 Sv%) likely starts for the Leafs
?Rielly will not play against the Wings
?With 13 points in his last 10 games Mitch Marner has taken over the scoring lead for both Leafs players and league rookies
?His linemates aren't doing too bad either: Bozak has 10 points in his last 9 games and JVR just had a 10-game point streak snapped where he collected 3 goals and 11 assists
?Kadri has 12 points in his last 9 games

DET
?Petr Mrazek (10-11-5, 3.13 GAA, .895 Sv%) will start for the Red Wings
?Detroit lost last night in overtime 4-3 against the Bruins
?The Wings are 3rd last in the Eastern Conference and barring a miraciously turnaround will almost certainly see their 25-year playoff streak come to an end

Injuries

?Nathan Horton - Back - Out indefinitely                   ?Joffrey Lupul - ?\_(ツ)_/? - Out indefinitely ?Stephane Robidas - Old - Out indefinitely ?Ben Smith - Hand - Injured Reserve ?Morgan Rielly - Ankle - Day to day​

?Tomas Vanek - Lower Body - Questionable Wednesday ?Steve Ott - Shoulder - Questionable Wednesday ?Dylan Larkin - Upper Body - Injured Reserve ?Brendan Smith - Knee - Injured Reserve ?Jimmy Howard - Knee - Injured Reserve ?Johan Franzen - Concussion - Out for season​

Stream Options

https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams
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[Highlander]

Any word on Mogen? I thought he was skating the other day?

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Any word on Mogen? I thought he was skating the other day?

Still sore apparently, will likely get until after the ASG to recover.

 

[Zee]

Any word on Mogen? I thought he was skating the other day?

Still sore apparently, will likely get until after the ASG to recover.

Makes sense to keep him out until after the break.  If the Leafs win tonight, they have only the 1 game left tomorrow and are in great shape in the standings even if they lose tomorrow.

 

[Frank E]

Any word on Mogen? I thought he was skating the other day?

Still sore apparently, will likely get until after the ASG to recover.

Makes sense to keep him out until after the break.  If the Leafs win tonight, they have only the 1 game left tomorrow and are in great shape in the standings even if they lose tomorrow.

It's getting a little tight there, but I guess it depends on what they do with their games in hand.

 

[louisstamos]

Don't you have to roll 13 or higher on a Mogen?  Depending on what their armor class is...

 

[Zee]

Hope Awesome Matthews breaks out tonight.

 

[rdowdall]

Isn't it right about now when the slide starts to happen?

 

[bustaheims]

Isn't it right about now when the slide starts to happen?

I suppose that depends on how you view the team. The Leafs are still a team that has lost more than half their games. Their point total is buoyed by the fact that they have the 3rd most OT/SO losses in the league. They're going to OT in roughly 1/3 of their games - which is on the higher end of things (league average looks to be somewhere in the 20-25% range - I couldn't find clear numbers), so they'll likely see a dip in "loser points." Their overall win rate of just 50% is pretty sustainable - it's roughly in-line with their possession numbers, PDO, etc. They'll likely need a boost in the underlying numbers to maintain their current pace and lock down a clear playoff spot, but, it looks like they're likely to be at least be able to stay in the hunt for one of the last couple spots available to them.

 

[Highlander]

Don't you have to roll 13 or higher on a Mogen?  Depending on what their armor class is...

Although I am a Bacardi guy?I do love Captin Mogen.

 

[Kin]

That injury list for the Wings is a pretty solid reminder of how relatively lucky the Leafs have been this year healthwise.

 

[freer]

Isn't it right about now when the slide starts to happen?

I suppose that depends on how you view the team. The Leafs are still a team that has lost more than half their games. Their point total is buoyed by the fact that they have the 3rd most OT/SO losses in the league. They're going to OT in roughly 1/3 of their games - which is on the higher end of things (league average looks to be somewhere in the 20-25% range - I couldn't find clear numbers), so they'll likely see a dip in "loser points." Their overall win rate of just 50% is pretty sustainable - it's roughly in-line with their possession numbers, PDO, etc. They'll likely need a boost in the underlying numbers to maintain their current pace and lock down a clear playoff spot, but, it looks like they're likely to be at least be able to stay in the hunt for one of the last couple spots available to them.

Yes they have lost games in OT, so what, that is the way of the league now. Before it would of been a point for a tie, and none of the dumb shoot out crap. Which I preferred anyways. They will finish in second or third in the division.

 

[disco]

Two-thirds of the league have lost more games than they've won. Also, teams have had their win column artificially enhanced by getting a tie and winning the penalty kicks. The W-L-OT column is completely skewed. Goal differential is a better indicator of caliber. And the 'falling of the cliff' thing is from past teams. This is a completely different team, much more skilled.

Sounds like this Mogen character would be good to have for the duration of Rielly's injury Wings on the second of a btb. Go get 'em! Thanks as always CtB.
#LeafsAreActuallyGood

 

[bustaheims]

Yes they have lost games in OT, so what, that is the way of the league now. Before it would of been a point for a tie, and none of the dumb shoot out crap. Which I preferred anyways. They will finish in second or third in the division.

If you actually read everything that I posted, you'd see that they're doing so at a higher rate than almost everyone else in the league. They have the 3rd highest total OT/SO losses (9 - 1 behind the co-leaders), while being tied for having the lowest number of games played. They're unlikely to keep getting to OT at that rate. Some of those OT losses will become regulation losses.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

They're unlikely to keep getting to OT at that rate. Some of those OT losses will become regulation losses.

At the same time though how many of those OT games came because we coughed up leads in the 3rd period? That seemed to be a strange trend for awhile that likely wasn't going to continue.  Maybe their very high trend of scoring early and first doesn't continue either, but I wouldn't say that not going to overtime as much in the 2nd half of the season would necessarily be a bad thing.

 

[ZBBM]

That injury list for the Wings is a pretty solid reminder of how relatively lucky the Leafs have been this year healthwise.

This is where the abovementioned slide could kick in.

 

[bustaheims]

At the same time though how many of those OT games came because we coughed up leads in the 3rd period? That seemed to be a strange trend for awhile that likely wasn't going to continue.  Maybe their very high trend of scoring early and first doesn't continue either, but I wouldn't say that not going to overtime as much in the 2nd half of the season would necessarily be a bad thing.

Not necessarily a bad thing, no. Just an easy to identify reason why their point pace has a strong possibility of tapering off. I also think their trend of scoring first is likely to regress some - which, in itself will likely lead to less OT games/more regulation losses - as they haven't been great at coming back to win games they've trailed in.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

At the same time though how many of those OT games came because we coughed up leads in the 3rd period? That seemed to be a strange trend for awhile that likely wasn't going to continue.  Maybe their very high trend of scoring early and first doesn't continue either, but I wouldn't say that not going to overtime as much in the 2nd half of the season would necessarily be a bad thing.

Not necessarily a bad thing, no. Just an easy to identify reason why their point pace has a strong possibility of tapering off. I also think their trend of scoring first is likely to regress some - which, in itself will likely lead to less OT games/more regulation losses - as they haven't been great at coming back to win games they've trailed in.

Honestly, you sound a little desperate.

You had this team pegged as being a lot worse than they have been to this point and seem to be looking for reasons as to why you'll be right by season's end.

Sure, there will be some regression in some areas, but given the age of the team, there is room for improvement in a lot of others.

At this point it's probably only significant injuries that keep them out of the playoffs.

 

[Kin]

To my mind the biggest question the Leafs have in terms of keeping up their pace from the first half of the season really is whether or not the fatigue/whatever you want to call it that we've seen affect rookies in the past hits the current bunch they've got. Additionally, I suppose, it'll be interesting to see what happens to Andersen once he gets into uncharted territory in terms of games played and/or they have to start using McBackup heavily.

That said, for my prediction of where they'd finish to come true they'd only be able to get 25 points in the next 37 games which would be a pace like the Sabres put up trying to tank for McDavid so I think it's pretty fair to say that's not going to happen.

But on the third hand, like I said at the time, if I underestimated how the Leafs would do this year I still don't think it's a good thing for the club long term.

 

[McGarnagle]

I think the Leaf rookies have really overperformed en masse, which is a good reason as to where they are, but the biggest single reason is probably Andersen. Take the first half of the season with Bernier as the starter, and we're comfortably in a wild card.

That said, Andersen has been overplayed, completely tenderized in term of shots faced relative to others, and doesn't exactly have an injury free playing history. I'd say the leafs playoff chances really hinge substantially on his health.