Mitch Marner: what now?

[CarltonTheBear]

Marner's final season point totals:

82 regular season games, 26 goals, 68 assists, 94 points
7 playoff games, 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points

In the regular season he finished in a tie for 69th (nice) in goals, 4th in assists, and 11th in points. Among players with a minimum of 65 GP he finished 15th in points per game. Among those 14 players ahead of him 6 of them were wingers, 7 if you count Draisaitl as a winger.

Does anyone still see him getting $12mil like our buddy Brad Marchand suggested? Or how about even getting as much as Matthews?

For what it's worth @EvolvingWild, a prominent voice in the analytics community, has their contract projections model up for this years free agent class. You can find the link to it here. Their initial prediction for Marner is an 8-year deal at $10.113mil. On a 5 or 6 year deal their model has him just a shade over $9mil.

My prediction, much like Dubas wanting to keep Nylander below $7mil on the cap I think they'll try to figure something out that keeps Marner below $10mil. That probably means an 8 year deal is of the table. A 5 year contract would make his contract expire the same year as Matthews and Nylander's, so I'm guessing 6 years, $9.5mil.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I have to agree that something shorter is more likely since that's what we've seen in the past. 6 at 9.5 per seems about right.

One thing I'll bet on is that it happens later rather than sooner. If the team manages to rid themselves of some high priced contracts, maybe 8 years is suddenly back on the table.

 

[L K]

8*10 is my guess.

Kane got 10.5 coming off 133 points in 130 games in the two years before his deal started.  (He also had 457 career points by that time in 576 games)

Marner has 163 points in the 164 games before his contract.

Kane got 10.5M.  Kane also scored 43 points in the two playoff runs prior to his contract (plus the 71 other playoff points on his resume)

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Kane got 10.5 coming off 133 points in 130 games in the two years before his deal started.  (He also had 457 career points by that time in 576 games)

Marner has 163 points in the 164 games before his contract.

Some context for this though: Kane's P/GP in those seasons was 4th in the league. Marner's P/GP in those seasons was 25th. They're really not comparable.

 

[Guilt Trip]

He won't be getting Matthews' money even tho we know that'll be Paul's ask. JT had a lot to do with Marner's increase in points this season. He doesn't get those points playing with anyone else unless it's Matthews. I can see 8 years @ 10 per getting it done.

 

[Zee]

8x10 would be great. I like locking up one of our big guys for 8 years. Let's make it happen

 

[Bender]

I think $10m is fair. He's not a big scoring centre and thus doesn't deserve the same contract as Matthews. I love Marner and think he's great and he's going to make a lot over his career but anything over $10M and everything starts to accrue. We need every bit of cap savings we can get.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I think $10m is fair. He's not a big scoring centre and thus doesn't deserve the same contract as Matthews. I love Marner and think he's great and he's going to make a lot over his career but anything over $10M and everything starts to accrue. We need every bit of cap savings we can get.

10 is very fair. Are you listening Paul Marner????

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1121479385264078848

This is just utter stupidity. There was some talk when Matthews signed his contract about people being happy with it even though it didn't match what their own predictions were prior to the signing. So I'll go on record here to say that if Marner gets $11mil then Dubas signed a bad deal.

 

[Bender]

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1121479385264078848

This is just utter stupidity. There was some talk when Matthews signed his contract about people being happy with it even though it didn't match what their own predictions were prior to the signing. So I'll go on record here to say that if Marner gets $11mil then Dubas signed a bad deal.

Why does everyone think that players signing an offer sheet is going to happen? They've talked about it for years and it almost NEVER happens. I don't think Marner is willing to go to a team that has that kind of cap space for an extra $1-2mil per year if he can stay here and be surrounded by players that can help him excel. $ isn't the last word in everything. If I were offered $20k more per year to go somewhere else in my industry I'd have to think long and hard about whether the money is enough to get me to leave, because I like where I am.

 

[Hobbes]

I do think there's a huge urgency to get Marner signed but not because of the risk of offer sheets. Dubas needs cost certainty on Marner before he can even start to think about doing anything at all on our own UFAs or any others that might be coming up. He needs to know this number to be able to do any shopping at all on July 1st. There might be some players (UFAs) who would agree to take less money to come to Toronto and have a shot at a cup, but I doubt they're going to also want to wait until Oct 1st before signing. Until the ink is dry on Marner's contract, Dubas' hands are tied for everything else.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I do think there's a huge urgency to get Marner signed but not because of the risk of offer sheets. Dubas needs cost certainty on Marner before he can even start to think about doing anything at all on our own UFAs or any others that might be coming up. He needs to know this number to be able to do any shopping at all on July 1st. There might be some players (UFAs) who would agree to take less money to come to Toronto and have a shot at a cup, but I doubt they're going to also want to wait until Oct 1st before signing. Until the ink is dry on Marner's contract, Dubas' hands are tied for everything else.

The only July 1st shopping they'll be doing is for Canada Flag birthday cakes.

 

[Guilt Trip]

The media are idiots. If someone wants to offer him stupid money and he signs it, it will be see you later. He's a great player but he's not Matthews. I agree with CTB here. 11 mill is a bad contract.

 

[freer]

The media are idiots. If someone wants to offer him stupid money and he signs it, it will be see you later. He's a great player but he's not Matthews. I agree with CTB here. 11 mill is a bad contract.

I think 8.9 to 9.5 should be his top wage. Anything more then that is ridiculous IMO

 

[Leaffan61]

His market value is $9.5-10 million x 8. Add on the Dubas Premium and don't be surprised if he gets $11 million x 8.

 

[Zee]

The media are idiots. If someone wants to offer him stupid money and he signs it, it will be see you later. He's a great player but he's not Matthews. I agree with CTB here. 11 mill is a bad contract.

I'll bet Dreger is spewing whatever either Darren Ferris or Paul Marner is telling him to say.

 

[L K]

https://twitter.com/DarrenDreger/status/1121479385264078848

This is just utter stupidity. There was some talk when Matthews signed his contract about people being happy with it even though it didn't match what their own predictions were prior to the signing. So I'll go on record here to say that if Marner gets $11mil then Dubas signed a bad deal.

Why does everyone think that players signing an offer sheet is going to happen? They've talked about it for years and it almost NEVER happens. I don't think Marner is willing to go to a team that has that kind of cap space for an extra $1-2mil per year if he can stay here and be surrounded by players that can help him excel. $ isn't the last word in everything. If I were offered $20k more per year to go somewhere else in my industry I'd have to think long and hard about whether the money is enough to get me to leave, because I like where I am.

Because they need to justify their boring July 1st/Trade Deadline shows. 

 

[TML fan]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

 

[Zee]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

Matthews scores more goals and is a center which has more responsibility on ice as opposed to winger.  You can make a case that Marner also kills penalties while Matthews doesn't, however traditionally scoring centers are more valued in the league and are more difficult to replace.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

Matthews scores more goals and is a center which has more responsibility on ice as opposed to winger.  You can make a case that Marner also kills penalties while Matthews doesn't, however traditionally scoring centers are more valued in the league and are more difficult to replace.

The main reason it's unfair to compare the 2 players comes down to a few things. While their numbers are virtually identical regarding pts, Marner played exclusively with John freaking Tavares who has done nothing in his career but made his wingers a lot better. Marner does not get 94 points without him. Matthews played with 3rd liners. Centre is also the harder position to play and goal scoring is the hardest thing to do in hockey. The fact that the media keeps saying he should ask for Matthews' money is ridiculous and very misleading really.