2011 Blue Jays/MLB Thread

[GhostofPotvin29]

Frustrating to wake up to hear that Rauch gave up yet another home run to end the game.  :  I still can't get over how someone so big throws so soft.

Beede -- heard he can't re-enter the draft until 2014.  That seems like a long time for a youngster.  I understand trying to get better to be picked higher and thus get paid even better, but a lot could go wrong during that time as well.

Finally, has anyone put up a quieter 600 home runs than Jim Thome?  Congrats to him.

Beede could also find himself subject to new compensation rules for draft picks.

 

[Kin]

Thome will be a weird HOF case. On the one hand he's got the great career numbers. On the other he's got some pretty unimpressive credentials outside of it. Only one silver slugger award in the trophy case, unimpressive post-season record, his highest MVP finish is 4th, only five ASG's.

 

[Peter D.]

Thome will be a weird HOF case. On the one hand he's got the great career numbers. On the other he's got some pretty unimpressive credentials outside of it. Only one silver slugger award in the trophy case, unimpressive post-season record, his highest MVP finish is 4th, only five ASG's.

Thome to me is baseball's version of Chris Osgood.  As you say, the numbers are there, but when thinking of Jim Thome, you don't automatically think to yourself, "Now that's a Hall of Famer."  The guys on SportsNet kept referring to him as a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer based on reaching the impressive accomplishment.  I do think he gets in, but Jim Thome doesn't strike me as a first ballot type.

 

[Kin]

Thome to me is baseball's version of Chris Osgood.  As you say, the numbers are there, but when thinking of Jim Thome, you don't automatically think to yourself, "Now that's a Hall of Famer."

It's not the comparison I'd use just because whereas I think Osgood making the HHOF would rank up there with Clark Gillies or Glenn Anderson as one of the worst decisions they ever made, Thome isn't that bad. Osgood doesn't really have the numbers outside of the worst possible statistical measurement of a goaltender's ability. Thome's numbers are uniformly good. His career OBP is .403, career SLG is .558. His career OPS+ is 147.

Osgood would be making it entirely on the backs of his teammates. The issue with Thome is that his average season was 35-40 homeruns and 100 RBI's at a time when the Brad Fullmer's of the world were hitting 30 homeruns with 90 RBI's. Thome's career WAR is just at 71.1.

A good comparison with Thome, to my mind, is Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell put up numbers that, if he'd put them up in any other era, would have seen him as a first ballot HOFer. As is he only got 41.7% of the vote. Bagwell's actually a tough comp for Thome. Bagwell has slightly better numbers, won more awards and was a good defensive 1B. Bagwell's career WAR is 79.9. HOF voters may be impressed with the raw HR numbers but that's about all Thome has going for him compared to some of the other slugging 1B of his day.

 

[Erndog]

Thome to me is baseball's version of Chris Osgood.  As you say, the numbers are there, but when thinking of Jim Thome, you don't automatically think to yourself, "Now that's a Hall of Famer."

It's not the comparison I'd use just because whereas I think Osgood making the HHOF would rank up there with Clark Gillies or Glenn Anderson as one of the worst decisions they ever made, Thome isn't that bad. Osgood doesn't really have the numbers outside of the worst possible statistical measurement of a goaltender's ability. Thome's numbers are uniformly good. His career OBP is .403, career SLG is .558. His career OPS+ is 147.

Osgood would be making it entirely on the backs of his teammates. The issue with Thome is that his average season was 35-40 homeruns and 100 RBI's at a time when the Brad Fullmer's of the world were hitting 30 homeruns with 90 RBI's. Thome's career WAR is just at 71.1.

A good comparison with Thome, to my mind, is Jeff Bagwell. Bagwell put up numbers that, if he'd put them up in any other era, would have seen him as a first ballot HOFer. As is he only got 41.7% of the vote. Bagwell's actually a tough comp for Thome. Bagwell has slightly better numbers, won more awards and was a good defensive 1B. Bagwell's career WAR is 79.9. HOF voters may be impressed with the raw HR numbers but that's about all Thome has going for him compared to some of the other slugging 1B of his day.

We're having the Thome discussion elsewhere and one thing to keep in mind is that he's generally seen as a player who is/was extremely likeable (unlike, say, Canseco/Bonds, etc ) and a player who has probably done it his whole career the clean way (who knows really, but guys like Bagwell have been accused before).

Voters don't look at just home runs and vote a guy in (see Mark Mcgwire) and we've seen recently that players accused of steroids aren't getting in (just yet) so I think Thome, who like you say, has numbers across the board and is perceived as one of the good guys has a real good shot.

 

[Kin]

We're having the Thome discussion elsewhere and one thing to keep in mind is that he's generally seen as a player who is/was extremely likeable (unlike, say, Canseco/Bonds, etc ) and a player who has probably done it his whole career the clean way (who knows really, but guys like Bagwell have been accused before).

I really struggle with the idea that either of those things should matter. The HOF isn't a popularity contest or a clean living award. I don't mind the idea that character factors into things but without having any first hand knowledge of the kind of guy Thome is I'm not inclined to pay it much mind. I know there's a media perception of Thome as a great guy but there was for Kirby Puckett too.

As for the "accusations", I mean, first of all, who accused Bagwell of anything? He never tested positive, never was named in any of the various reports. Some people may have suspected Bagwell of something but if everyone who's been suspected of PED use by someone is kept out of the hall, nobody will go in. I've talked to people recently who questioned Alomar in that regard.

Voters don't look at just home runs and vote a guy in (see Mark Mcgwire) and we've seen recently that players accused of steroids aren't getting in (just yet) so I think Thome, who like you say, has numbers across the board and is perceived as one of the good guys has a real good shot.

Well, let's be fair. McGwire isn't just HR numbers either. McGwire's career OPS and OPS+ are better than Thome and he was a pretty solid defensive firstbaseman. If it's a straight numbers case, McGwire trumps Thome.

I don't know what should be done about admitted steroid guys like McGwire but, I think, absent of any sort of evidence BBWAA guys should treat guys without that on their records the same.

 

[Kin]

Just a thought but I was listening to people talk about Kyle Drabek and how he's struggled at AAA but how, because Vegas is such a good hitter's park, it was hard to get a good sense of what that meant. So anyone else think that a AAA team that wildly distorts numbers may be a bad idea and the Jays should maybe be looking for a slightly more neutral affiliate?

 

[bustaheims]

Just a thought but I was listening to people talk about Kyle Drabek and how he's struggled at AAA but how, because Vegas is such a good hitter's park, it was hard to get a good sense of what that meant. So anyone else think that a AAA team that wildly distorts numbers may be a bad idea and the Jays should maybe be looking for a slightly more neutral affiliate?

I'm sure, if the possibility arises, that they'll take a serious look at it. I imagine they'd also prefer to move back to a AAA affiliate that's, at the very least, on the East coast.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/Jays+prospect+Loewen+finding+life+outfielder/5264252/story.html

Update on Adam Loewen, the pitcher-turned-outfielder, much like Rick Ankiel.

 

[Peter D.]

I'm finding Dustin McGowan's road to recovery quite remarkable. 

 

[Newbury]

I'm finding Dustin McGowan's road to recovery quite remarkable.

It would be remarkable to see him make an appearance with the Jays in Toronto before the end of the season. I think the ovation would be quite a scene.

 

[dappleganger]

I'm finding Dustin McGowan's road to recovery quite remarkable.

It would be remarkable to see him make an appearance with the Jays in Toronto before the end of the season. I think the ovation would be quite a scene.

It's going to happen.

 

[draeko17]

I'm finding Dustin McGowan's road to recovery quite remarkable.

It would be remarkable to see him make an appearance with the Jays in Toronto before the end of the season. I think the ovation would be quite a scene.

It's going to happen.

That would be simply awesome.

 

[Arn]

I've not been able to follow the Jays as much this year due to a change of job and lack of mlb.tv, but would it be fair to say a lack of a bullpen has been the major issue? Have we anyone coming through to rectify that or will it have to be done by free agents?

At east Lowrie seems to be having a decent impact. Will be interesting to see how he goes when he has to start facing pitchers for the 2nd and 3rd time tho

 

[maplesyrup]

I've not been able to follow the Jays as much this year due to a change of job and lack of mlb.tv, but would it be fair to say a lack of a bullpen has been the major issue? Have we anyone coming through to rectify that or will it have to be done by free agents?

At east Lowrie seems to be having a decent impact. Will be interesting to see how he goes when he has to start facing pitchers for the 2nd and 3rd time tho

It could be than Janssen is the only returning member of the pen. We may see Litsch or Perez there too or someone else already in the system but to answer your question, it's going to be filled next year in part via the system and in part by via free agency. I'm confident it will be sorted.

McGowan is also a possibility should he fail in his bid to be a starter.

Edit: and yeah, the pen has stunk.

 

[Kin]

I've not been able to follow the Jays as much this year due to a change of job and lack of mlb.tv, but would it be fair to say a lack of a bullpen has been the major issue?

I think the issue is probably better summed up by saying that the problem is the pitching staff as a whole. Outside of Romero none of the starters are having much of a year either.

 

[maplesyrup]

I think the issue is probably better summed up by saying that the problem is the pitching staff as a whole. Outside of Romero none of the starters are having much of a year either.

Morrow's flashes of brilliance have been enough to keep me excited about him as a top of the rotation starter going forward too.

 

[Kin]

I think the issue is probably better summed up by saying that the problem is the pitching staff as a whole. Outside of Romero none of the starters are having much of a year either.

Morrow's flashes of brilliance have been enough to keep me excited about him as a top of the rotation starter going forward too.

Stunned though I am that you're optimistic about a Blue Jay, it doesn't change that he's not having a very good year.

 

[L K]

I think the issue is probably better summed up by saying that the problem is the pitching staff as a whole. Outside of Romero none of the starters are having much of a year either.

Morrow's flashes of brilliance have been enough to keep me excited about him as a top of the rotation starter going forward too.

His road stats anyway.  He's been awful at home. The exact opposite of last year where he was unhittable at home and a gas tank on the road.

As for the bullpen.  It's going to be an entire reload, and I'm having a hard time seeing how they are going to put together a top 10 bullpen (what the Jays will need if they are going to compete in the AL East given their rotation) when they are going to have to rely on every free agent panning out.  After Janssen and maybe Litsch, they need to grab a closer who doesn't suck, a strong set-up man, a reliable lefty specialist, and depending on the role Litsch takes, a long-arm. 

 

[maplesyrup]

I think the issue is probably better summed up by saying that the problem is the pitching staff as a whole. Outside of Romero none of the starters are having much of a year either.

Morrow's flashes of brilliance have been enough to keep me excited about him as a top of the rotation starter going forward too.

Stunned though I am that you're optimistic about a Blue Jay, it doesn't change that he's not having a very good year.

1. Why would you be stunned?
2. Can you point to the part where I was arguing with you? It's pretty clear I wasn't.