2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[#1PilarFan]

Well, but again, the point of trying to deal Arencibia is precisely because he does have value. I mean, like you say, if AA is serious about trying to acquire two pitchers he's got to give something to get them. So the "need" to deal him isn't about him being terrible and needing to be replaced just the "need" to address other areas of the club.

Sure, but there are other assets that can be used within the organization. With JPA, the Jays have the luxury of taking their time with D'Arnaud. I wouldn't mind dealing JPA somewhere in the midst of the 2013 season, but I think to do it before would be to take a serious gamble.

 

[Kin]

I just think that JP would make a pretty good - and affordable - (poor man's?) Victor Martinez by being able to give time at DH, 1B. and catcher while supplying some decent power in the late middle of the order.

Well, but again that leads us right back to the metric gap. Like I said, those at-bats at 1B/DH are, barring a significant improvement in JP's ability to get on base, essentially replacement level at-bats.

I understand AAA Vegas tends to inflate hitters statistics, but that was a massive MVP season he enjoyed a few years back. 

That's a bit of an exaggeration. He had a good year for Vegas but nothing all that above and beyond what most Jays prospects seem to do there. JP OPS'd .986 during that season. Yan Gomes this year was at .938, David Cooper probably had a better year in Vegas in '11 because of a .459 OBP and a .974 OPS, Snider was at .976 in his three shots in Vegas and basically on and on. Give me a week to prepare and I'd probably hit .280 at Vegas. 

 

[maplesyrup]

Well, we already know that Happ is capable of being a back of the rotation starter at the big league level. He's done so for a number of seasons now, and, in fact, looked like he might be capable of more (though, only for the one season). So, the team really only needs one other guy to step up. And, really, considering there are probably a dozen potential candidates in house already, there's a good chance that guy is already there.

I'd be okay with Happ in the 5. Maybe Alvarez can be the 4. Who knows. But even with that, we're still an injury away from another mess. I'd rather have the additional guy and then pull someone out the pen if needed.

 

[Kin]

Sure, but there are other assets that can be used within the organization. With JPA, the Jays have the luxury of taking their time with D'Arnaud. I wouldn't mind dealing JPA somewhere in the midst of the 2013 season, but I think to do it before would be to take a serious gamble.

A couple things. One, they have been taking their time with D'Arnaud. He's 23, going to be 24 before spring training. He should have been in the bigs this year. So they're not rushing him by giving him the job next year.

Two, yeah, of course there are other assets. But I'd be willing to bet you that just about any good, high value asset you can name in the Jays system is probably at a spot that the Jays would be weaker at with their departure than their long-term prospects behind the plate.

Third, and just to clarify, all I said is that they should look into moving JP not that it's a do or die thing. If teams don't jump, you hold onto him for a year. But being as the worst case scenario for the team is having to replace a catcher who is probably going to struggle to put up a bWAR of 2 for a season, I mean, I'm not sweating that.

 

[Kin]

But even with that, we're still an injury away from another mess.

But how many teams in baseball history haven't been a key injury or two in their starting rotation away from a mess? No team is going to be carrying 7-8 major league capable starters, especially not a team with a limited budget. I don't think you can look at the freak show of this year and say that the Jays need to build their team to address it happening again.

 

[maplesyrup]

But even with that, we're still an injury away from another mess.

But how many teams in baseball history haven't been a key injury or two in their starting rotation away from a mess? No team is going to be carrying 7-8 major league capable starters, especially not a team with a limited budget. I don't think you can look at the freak show of this year and say that the Jays need to build their team to address it happening again.

I'm just kinda hoping for 5.  :-\

 

[Champ Kind]

That's not the impression that I got from AA or Beeston. As I mentioned earlier, AA said he intends to add to the rotation and Beeston believes this team is ready to make big moves to push this team over the top.

Offensively, I don't think the Jays will have too much to be concerned about. With Bautista and Encarnacion, the Jays have two very good power hitters. I expect Encarnacion to take a couple steps back from this year, but his decline should be offset by a healthy Bautista.

This year, the Jays are more or less a middle of the pack offensive team, and that's with injuries, an underperforming Brett Lawrie, and some truly heinous numbers posted by guys who I think can and should do better, Rasmus being the primary offender. They will likely be a better team offensively net year even if they fail to make any acquisitions.

But Pilar, the front office was poised to make big moves last season, too.  The focal point was trading young talent for established pitching.  Gonzalez, Latos, Pineda, Garza, and on and on.  Subsequently, no deal was made because of acquisition cost.  Jays reporters like Griffin and Perkins were talking about upgrading at LF and DH going into last year.  Weren't people debating whether Lind could adequately fill a role last year, too?  Wasn't second base a question mark last year, too (in fact, last year was arguably better because at around this point debate was centred on the Jays potentially acquiring Brandon Philips.  No such dream scenario this year). 

I won't argue with you that the offense should be better next year.  But I would contest where you say that Lawrie underperformed.  For all we know, his performance this year may be what he's all about.  Too early to tell and, frankly, a .275 average with 15-20 home runs would be fine for me....as a second baseman.  I still think the Jays need to add a dependable, veteran, and above-average bat to the lineup, either at the 1B/DH, LF or 2B.  The other positions can be replaced internally.  Pitching is another kettle of fish, however.

 

[Kin]

I'm just kinda hoping for 5.  :-\

But even that, right, is pretty rare. I mean look at how well the Yankees have done despite how crummy Nova/Garcia have been or the Orioles with Hunter/Arrieta or Texas with Feldman/Holland and even with all of those cases they're all still an injury or two away from a mess.

 

[Andy007]

But even with that, we're still an injury away from another mess.

But how many teams in baseball history haven't been a key injury or two in their starting rotation away from a mess? No team is going to be carrying 7-8 major league capable starters, especially not a team with a limited budget. I don't think you can look at the freak show of this year and say that the Jays need to build their team to address it happening again.

And there's the part that baffles me. Why, again, is this team on a limited budget? The market and owner are both among the biggest and richest in the league. I don't understand why fans accept this as a reality. Bottom line is the team should be looking to acquire some front of the roation quality pitching and be damned the price. 

In regards to the 'freak show' of pitching injuries this year, it's hard to deny the ridiculousness of the amount of injuries, but I don't find it all that surprising that a 21yo with limited minor league experience, a 22yo with barely more experience and a 23yo who got torched in both the major AND the minors last year all couldn't stay in the starting rotation. These are the type of guys who should be called upon in the event of injuries, not 3, 4 and 5 in the commencement of a major league starting rotation.

 

[Andy007]

I'm just kinda hoping for 5.  :-\

But even that, right, is pretty rare. I mean look at how well the Yankees have done despite how crummy Nova/Garcia have been or the Orioles with Hunter/Arrieta or Texas with Feldman/Holland and even with all of those cases they're all still an injury or two away from a mess.

Yankees have had some pretty devestating injuries themselves this year. They just didn't have a razor thin bench, little to no depth, and a ridiculously frugal owner.

 

[Kin]

And there's the part that baffles me. Why, again, is this team on a limited budget? The market and owner are both among the biggest and richest in the league. I don't understand why fans accept this as a reality. Bottom line is the team should be looking to acquire some front of the roation quality pitching and be damned the price.

Well, that'd be a little bit like saying that pre-'05 NHL lockout the LA Kings should have been a top 5 payroll team because Philip Anschutz is one of the league's richest owners and LA is such a big market. I mean, the market's appetite for the sport, the revenue capabilities of the ballparks, those are things that matter more than just the population of the city/net worth of the owner. 

Reality is that every team is on a limited budget. Even the Yankees are making noise about not wanting to pay the luxury tax. I think the Jays have room to grow their payroll but they're never going to be competing with the Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox in terms of payroll.

 

[Andy007]

And there's the part that baffles me. Why, again, is this team on a limited budget? The market and owner are both among the biggest and richest in the league. I don't understand why fans accept this as a reality. Bottom line is the team should be looking to acquire some front of the roation quality pitching and be damned the price.

Well, that'd be a little bit like saying that pre-'05 NHL lockout the LA Kings should have been a top 5 payroll team because Philip Anschutz is one of the league's richest owners and LA is such a big market. I mean, the market's appetite for the sport, the revenue capabilities of the ballparks, those are things that matter more than just the population of the city/net worth of the owner. 

Reality is that every team is on a limited budget. Even the Yankees are making noise about not wanting to pay the luxury tax. I think the Jays have room to grow their payroll but they're never going to be competing with the Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox in terms of payroll.

Exactly. No one is advocating having the league's highest payroll (although, really, it's not like there's a reason why that's an impossibility) but 80 million with little to no flexibility? That is an insult to fans, despite what obscure analogies you come up with that have no bearing on this situation.

 

[Kin]

Exactly. No one is advocating having the league's highest payroll (although, really, it's not like there's a reason why that's an impossibility).

Well, practically there is. I mean, the Blue Jays have a rich "owner" but that owner is also a corporation. They're going to operate the Jays on the basis of them being profitable for them whether in the long term or the short term. My "obscure" simile of a post back was just making the point that any team being run in such a manner is going to have a payroll that corresponds to the revenue the team generates or can generate. Toronto's a good market but the idea that they'll be able to generate the revenue to compete with a Boston or New York or LA isn't terribly realistic.

but 80 million with little to no flexibility? That is an insult to fans, despite what obscure analogies you come up with that have no bearing on this situation.

I haven't gotten the impression that there's no flexibility, just that AA hasn't liked the deals available to him. I think he's been wrong on some of those calls, Darvish in particular, but I don't get the sense that he couldn't have made that deal

 

[hockeyfan1]

...Darvish in particular, but I don't get the sense that he couldn't have made that deal

Considering Darvish's statistics in the Majors, how would he have helped the Jays?

 

[Peter D.]

Along with the roster moves, what's going to happen with the coaching staff could be just as intriguing.  The rumours of Farrell ending up back in Boston won't go away.  Even if he stays, where does that leave the rest of the staff, as well as the medical staff.  Would not surprise me if we see a complete overhaul.

 

[bustaheims]

Considering Darvish's statistics in the Majors, how would he have helped the Jays?

ERA under 4 and a WHIP of 1.28 . . . how would he not have helped? He had a rough patch, but, overall, Darvish has been very good this season. He would have been the Jays #2 starter with those numbers.

 

[Kin]

Considering Darvish's statistics in the Majors, how would he have helped the Jays?

Darvish ranks 8th in the American League in terms of bWAR for pitchers. He ranks, barely, ahead of Jered Weaver at 20-4 with a 2.73 ERA and a league leading 1.002 WHIP. 

The Jays have given a ton of innings to guys at or below replacement level. Best case scenario it's a difference of 5-6 wins. That's not in and of itself the difference between the playoffs and not the playoffs but it's not like he'd have just been signed for the one year or that you should only judge a guy on whether or not he'd get the team into the playoffs single-handed.

Edit: Interestingly, fangraphs has the gap at being pretty significant in Darvish's favor 5.1 to 3.0 for Weaver. Crazy to think that Weaver will get Cy Young votes and Darvish won't.

 

[#1PilarFan]

But Pilar, the front office was poised to make big moves last season, too.  The focal point was trading young talent for established pitching.  Gonzalez, Latos, Pineda, Garza, and on and on.  Subsequently, no deal was made because of acquisition cost.  Jays reporters like Griffin and Perkins were talking about upgrading at LF and DH going into last year.  Weren't people debating whether Lind could adequately fill a role last year, too?  Wasn't second base a question mark last year, too (in fact, last year was arguably better because at around this point debate was centred on the Jays potentially acquiring Brandon Philips.  No such dream scenario this year).

I think most of the speculation of potential acquisitions came from outside of the organization. The difference this year is that both Beeston and AA have acknowledged that big moves need to made and that the roster in its current form is not good enough to compete for a playoff spot, even without the injuries. Keep in mind, AA gets another high pick this year, so he can afford to trade a couple of good prospects. 

I won't argue with you that the offense should be better next year.  But I would contest where you say that Lawrie underperformed.  For all we know, his performance this year may be what he's all about.  Too early to tell and, frankly, a .275 average with 15-20 home runs would be fine for me....as a second baseman.  I still think the Jays need to add a dependable, veteran, and above-average bat to the lineup, either at the 1B/DH, LF or 2B.  The other positions can be replaced internally.  Pitching is another kettle of fish, however.

In terms of Lawrie, for all we know he's worse than what he's shown so far. We can't predict the future. However, Lawrie was a top rated prospect who has displayed some hitting prowess in the minors and majors, so in all likelihood he hasn't reached his peak. I don't think he's the .950ish OPS guy we saw in 2011, but I do think he at least has more pop in his bat than he's showed so far this year and with experience he should be able to increase his walk rate a little bit as well. So, yes, he should be better next year. 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The 2012 off-season is starting to look eerily similar to the 2011 off-season, which doesn't bode well, methinks.

How can the 2012 off-season start to resemble anything when it hasn't even begun yet?

In terms of the players available as UFA's? Both years had pretty weak crops.

Ahh, I was taking what he said to mean it was going like last off-season in terms of the moves that the Jays made last off-season, and was all sorts of confused.

 

[Champ Kind]

The 2012 off-season is starting to look eerily similar to the 2011 off-season, which doesn't bode well, methinks.

How can the 2012 off-season start to resemble anything when it hasn't even begun yet?

In terms of the players available as UFA's? Both years had pretty weak crops.

Ahh, I was taking what he said to mean it was going like last off-season in terms of the moves that the Jays made last off-season, and was all sorts of confused.

Actually, Potvin, I was, though that was only part of it.  Nik's point on free agent availability is astute, and Sarge earlier mentioned that acquiring pitching will likely be cost / asset prohibitive.  This, to me, sounds very familiar to last year's off-season.  We're also hearing that the team has to compete in 2013.  The same thing was said last year (2012 was identified, I believe, as far back as 2008 under the Ricciardi regime as the 'year' the team would turn the corner). 

Look, I get the fact that I'm making an, shall we say, experiential-based guess on a period of time that has yet to take place (off-season 2012, that it).  And maybe my perspective is coloured by a frustrating season.  But if Anthopolous' fundamental approach of buying low continues, I fret that next year's team will look - and perform - pretty much like this year's.