2013 Draft Day Thread

[Heroic Shrimp]

"Roberto, baby, you've always been the one for me.  I'm so sorry about Corey, I don't know what I was thinking.  He was young and I was confused.  But now I've got my head on straight and I know you're the one, for now and forever.  Corey is gone!  I know we can make this work, baby, just give me another chance."

~ excerpt from the new TSN series, New Jersey Shore

 

[cw]

Mike Gillis should have been fired a while ago. I don't mind him trading Schneider. I felt that should have been considered some time ago under the circumstances - it could have helped their playoff run. But I will never believe that a #9 1st round pick in return was the best he could do for the Canucks franchise. Struck me as a panic move.

link to May 10th:
Luongo says goodbye again; hopes he's not saying hello next fall
Luongo made his comments about an hour before Vancouver general manager Mike Gillis addressed the media. It sounds like Gillis plans to grant Luongo his wish. Asked about the likelihood of Luongo being here next season, Gillis said simply: "I think it is unlikely."

Under the awkward circumstances, I think Luongo has handled this pretty well. He did put his Vancouver condo up for sale in May.

Unbelievably, Gillis couldn't flip one of the better young goalies in the league into an asset that could help his aging contender now.

At the draft, either McGuire or someone else on the broadcast team said the Oilers offer was a lot better.

I can't help but think that had he been dealt at the deadline that the return would've been a lot better. It's not as if he's a prospect. He's a guy who's played quite well in his 100 or so games, and had 3 good seasons in a row with a good SV% and Win%.

That's only worth the 9th overall pick?

The thing that I find totally amazing is that Gillis only managed a return of Kassian and a 9th overall for Schneider and Hodgson. Terrible asset management IMO. Now Edler could be on the move? Gillis might as well just hold onto him so he doesn't get fleeced again.

It was pointed out during discussions prior to the deadline that moving Schneider would solve the problem Gillis was facing at the draft and give his aging contender a better shot in this year's playoffs.

It also had to be widely known that a cap crunch was coming prior to the signing of the new CBA so moving Luongo was going to be tougher - not easier. And Gillis had to know that the owner didn't want to eat millions on a Luongo compliance buyout long before the draft.

Gillis also had to know from the offers he was receiving, confirmed by Luongo's comments at the deadline, how much Luongo's contract curtailed moving him.

I can understand why they'd want more from the Oilers being within their division but I also think there are limits to that - not much more before it compromises the overall strength of the franchise of talent.

For example, I can't believe the Flyers wouldn't offer their first (11th) plus an offensive young roster player to get Schneider at the deadline or prior to the draft.

I'm shocked at the low return Gillis accepted for Schneider - a good quality starting goalie - the position of most impact. First rounders are very roughly 50/50 propositions whether they'll work out. He should have received at least one guaranteed decent/impact NHLer with a couple of years before he becomes a UFA in return - because that's what he gave up.

If I owned the Canucks, I would have fired Gillis before the 2nd round of the draft. This was a terrible deal for the Canucks. Gillis had one really good card to play and blew it. Now, I think they should fire Gillis (probably won't happen) and bring in a GM to consider blowing it up because even without Schneider's contract they only have $4 mil in cap space to sign 7 more players. The anticipated Ballard compliance buyout can double that but it's hard to add much to impact the roster when you've got $1 mil average left to sign players. Buying out Booth could help but how much better will they be with that dough in the wake of losing Derek Roy?

To me, this trade smells as bad as Mike Milbury's days as GM of the Isles.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

It was pointed out during discussions prior to the deadline that moving Schneider would solve the problem Gillis was facing at the draft and give his aging contender a better shot in this year's playoffs.

It also had to be widely known that a cap crunch was coming prior to the signing of the new CBA so moving Luongo was going to be tougher - not easier. And Gillis had to know that the owner didn't want to eat millions on a Luongo compliance buyout long before the draft.

Gillis also had to know from the offers he was receiving, confirmed by Luongo's comments at the deadline, how much Luongo's contract curtailed moving him.

I can understand why they'd want more from the Oilers being within their division but I also think there are limits to that - not much more before it compromises the overall strength of the franchise of talent.

For example, I can't believe the Flyers wouldn't offer their first (11th) plus an offensive young roster player to get Schneider at the deadline or prior to the draft.

I'm shocked at the low return Gillis accepted for Schneider - a good quality starting goalie - the position of most impact. First rounders are very roughly 50/50 propositions whether they'll work out. He should have received at least one guaranteed decent/impact NHLer with a couple of years before he becomes a UFA in return - because that's what he gave up.

If I owned the Canucks, I would have fired Gillis before the 2nd round of the draft. This was a terrible deal for the Canucks. Gillis had one really good card to play and blew it. Now, I think they should fire Gillis (probably won't happen) and bring in a GM to consider blowing it up because even without Schneider's contract they only have $4 mil in cap space to sign 7 more players. The anticipated Ballard compliance buyout can double that but it's hard to add much to impact the roster when you've got $1 mil average left to sign players. Buying out Booth could help but how much better will they be with that dough in the wake of losing Derek Roy?

To me, this trade smells as bad as Mike Milbury's days as GM of the Isles.

When the day comes (and it will) that Mike Gillis gets fired, I think the only chance he ever gets re-hired as a GM is by a bad team that fails to look at his actual record as GM.  He's running that team into the ground, and I kind of hope ownership keeps letting him do it because it's so amusing.

I've felt bad for Luongo through all of this, and he's been extremely graceful through the whole process.  And now I feel bad that he's stuck long-term (though via a big contract he willfully signed) with a team that's going to be very hard-pressed to contend again for years.

 

[Kin]

When the day comes (and it will) that Mike Gillis gets fired, I think the only chance he ever gets re-hired as a GM is by a bad team that fails to look at his actual record as GM.  He's running that team into the ground, and I kind of hope ownership keeps letting him do it because it's so amusing.

I've felt bad for Luongo through all of this, and he's been extremely graceful through the whole process.  And now I feel bad that he's stuck long-term (though via a big contract he willfully signed) with a team that's going to be very hard-pressed to contend again for years.

Although with all of that said I like what the Canucks did in the actual draft yesterday as much as just about any team.

 

[ZBBM]

Nice, New Jersey trades for the 208th pick and drafts Anthony Brodeur and Marty makes the announcement

I missed it but it must have been quite the moment. Classy of Lou too.

I didn't see it but honestly, why would anyone feel honored by this?  If NJ wanted the kid they would have not waited until the end to do this.  How much of a genuine thrill could it be for the son (or the dad), knowing that the only reason this is happening is symbolism and it's all under false pretenses?  I have never understood these "use your last draft pick to honor so-and-so who has no chance of making the NHL" things.

 

[ZBBM]

When the day comes (and it will) that Mike Gillis gets fired, I think the only chance he ever gets re-hired as a GM is by a bad team that fails to look at his actual record as GM.  He's running that team into the ground, and I kind of hope ownership keeps letting him do it because it's so amusing.

Gillis will get re-hired the day after somebody re-hires JFJ.  Which is to say, never.

 

[cw]

It was pointed out during discussions prior to the deadline that moving Schneider would solve the problem Gillis was facing at the draft and give his aging contender a better shot in this year's playoffs.

It also had to be widely known that a cap crunch was coming prior to the signing of the new CBA so moving Luongo was going to be tougher - not easier. And Gillis had to know that the owner didn't want to eat millions on a Luongo compliance buyout long before the draft.

Gillis also had to know from the offers he was receiving, confirmed by Luongo's comments at the deadline, how much Luongo's contract curtailed moving him.

I can understand why they'd want more from the Oilers being within their division but I also think there are limits to that - not much more before it compromises the overall strength of the franchise of talent.

For example, I can't believe the Flyers wouldn't offer their first (11th) plus an offensive young roster player to get Schneider at the deadline or prior to the draft.

I'm shocked at the low return Gillis accepted for Schneider - a good quality starting goalie - the position of most impact. First rounders are very roughly 50/50 propositions whether they'll work out. He should have received at least one guaranteed decent/impact NHLer with a couple of years before he becomes a UFA in return - because that's what he gave up.

If I owned the Canucks, I would have fired Gillis before the 2nd round of the draft. This was a terrible deal for the Canucks. Gillis had one really good card to play and blew it. Now, I think they should fire Gillis (probably won't happen) and bring in a GM to consider blowing it up because even without Schneider's contract they only have $4 mil in cap space to sign 7 more players. The anticipated Ballard compliance buyout can double that but it's hard to add much to impact the roster when you've got $1 mil average left to sign players. Buying out Booth could help but how much better will they be with that dough in the wake of losing Derek Roy?

To me, this trade smells as bad as Mike Milbury's days as GM of the Isles.

When the day comes (and it will) that Mike Gillis gets fired, I think the only chance he ever gets re-hired as a GM is by a bad team that fails to look at his actual record as GM.  He's running that team into the ground, and I kind of hope ownership keeps letting him do it because it's so amusing.

I usually have a fair amount of time for any NHL GM as most of them are decent hockey men with something of value to express. Gillis rubs me the wrong way.

I've felt bad for Luongo through all of this, and he's been extremely graceful through the whole process.  And now I feel bad that he's stuck long-term (though via a big contract he willfully signed) with a team that's going to be very hard-pressed to contend again for years.

I was never a big fan but my respect for Luongo has increased during this debacle.

I think they can probably make the playoffs again next spring but I strongly suspect it will just be a tease. Normally, I pull for Canadian teams but because of Gillis, I've enjoyed their failure.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

When the day comes (and it will) that Mike Gillis gets fired, I think the only chance he ever gets re-hired as a GM is by a bad team that fails to look at his actual record as GM.  He's running that team into the ground, and I kind of hope ownership keeps letting him do it because it's so amusing.

I've felt bad for Luongo through all of this, and he's been extremely graceful through the whole process.  And now I feel bad that he's stuck long-term (though via a big contract he willfully signed) with a team that's going to be very hard-pressed to contend again for years.

Although with all of that said I like what the Canucks did in the actual draft yesterday as much as just about any team.

I can't say I remember much beyond Horvat and Shinkaruk.

Anyway, they didn't move the albatross of a contract in Luongo (they never will) and are getting older, as the window starts to close on the Sedins.

My favourite moment of the draft (and team I think made out like bandits) was Jones falling to the Predators. With Weber, Rinne and Jones, and to a lesser extent Josi and Ellis (if he ever puts it together) their team is set on D for a good 7 years. Now if they could only get some forward help.....

 

[leafplasma]

The Schneider trade makes me wonder if the Leafs and Nucks ever had discussions involving Schneider rather than Luongo coming to the Leafs.  I would think that the trade of Frattin, Scrivens and a 2nd could be seen as comparable to the 9th pick that Gillis excepted.  Frattin and Scrivens would help and aging Nuck team now.  Maybe even Frattin, Scrivens and the Leafs first round pick(#21), would have done it.  Just makes me wonder if any of these discussions went down or maybe Nonis just valued Bernier more than Schneider when you factor in the reduced cap hit as Reimer and Bernier will basically be paid the same as Schneider alone.

 

[hockeyfan1]

The Schneider trade makes me wonder if the Leafs and Nucks ever had discussions involving Schneider rather than Luongo coming to the Leafs.  I would think that the trade of Frattin, Scrivens and a 2nd could be seen as comparable to the 9th pick that Gillis excepted.  Frattin and Scrivens would help and aging Nuck team now.  Maybe even Frattin, Scrivens and the Leafs first round pick(#21), would have done it.  Just makes me wonder if any of these discussions went down or maybe Nonis just valued Bernier more than Schneider when you factor in the reduced cap hit as Reimer and Bernier will basically be paid the same as Schneider alone.

That reason alone was the major factor.

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

Anything of note in any of our other picks?

 

[cw]

The Schneider trade makes me wonder if the Leafs and Nucks ever had discussions involving Schneider rather than Luongo coming to the Leafs.  I would think that the trade of Frattin, Scrivens and a 2nd could be seen as comparable to the 9th pick that Gillis excepted.  Frattin and Scrivens would help and aging Nuck team now.  Maybe even Frattin, Scrivens and the Leafs first round pick(#21), would have done it.  Just makes me wonder if any of these discussions went down or maybe Nonis just valued Bernier more than Schneider when you factor in the reduced cap hit as Reimer and Bernier will basically be paid the same as Schneider alone.

That reason alone was the major factor.

I'm not so sure. They ate some of Frattin's salary and he's a pretty good bang for his buck right now and still a RFA for his next deal. They'll probably be hard pressed to replace that skill for that dough. And we haven't yet got squeamish when we review what it will take to re-sign Bernier.

Further, if they had got Schneider, the salary going down the road is more likely to be Reimer - not Scrivens. Scrivens may have gone back the Canucks way but it's that type of backup and salary they'd need if they got Schneider, a proven starter. So they could have traded Reimer to recoup some of the assets lost acquiring Schneider and give them some cap relief via moving Reimer for taking on Schneider's cap hit.

If the Leafs didn't regard Reimer as a "maybe" when it comes to considering him as a top quality starter, they never would have traded for Bernier - who is also a "maybe". I don't think Lou Lamoriello or anyone else in the league regards Schneider as a "maybe". In the position of most importance, one doesn't mind paying a little more in cap space to get that question mark eliminated from their roster.

 

[cw]

Mike Gillis should have been fired a while ago. I don't mind him trading Schneider. I felt that should have been considered some time ago under the circumstances - it could have helped their playoff run. But I will never believe that a #9 1st round pick in return was the best he could do for the Canucks franchise. Struck me as a panic move.

link to May 10th:
Luongo says goodbye again; hopes he's not saying hello next fall
Luongo made his comments about an hour before Vancouver general manager Mike Gillis addressed the media. It sounds like Gillis plans to grant Luongo his wish. Asked about the likelihood of Luongo being here next season, Gillis said simply: "I think it is unlikely."

Under the awkward circumstances, I think Luongo has handled this pretty well. He did put his Vancouver condo up for sale in May.

Unbelievably, Gillis couldn't flip one of the better young goalies in the league into an asset that could help his aging contender now.

At the draft, either McGuire or someone else on the broadcast team said the Oilers offer was a lot better.

I can't help but think that had he been dealt at the deadline that the return would've been a lot better. It's not as if he's a prospect. He's a guy who's played quite well in his 100 or so games, and had 3 good seasons in a row with a good SV% and Win%.

That's only worth the 9th overall pick?

The thing that I find totally amazing is that Gillis only managed a return of Kassian and a 9th overall for Schneider and Hodgson. Terrible asset management IMO. Now Edler could be on the move? Gillis might as well just hold onto him so he doesn't get fleeced again.

It was pointed out during discussions prior to the deadline that moving Schneider would solve the problem Gillis was facing at the draft and give his aging contender a better shot in this year's playoffs.

It also had to be widely known that a cap crunch was coming prior to the signing of the new CBA so moving Luongo was going to be tougher - not easier. And Gillis had to know that the owner didn't want to eat millions on a Luongo compliance buyout long before the draft.

Gillis also had to know from the offers he was receiving, confirmed by Luongo's comments at the deadline, how much Luongo's contract curtailed moving him.

I can understand why they'd want more from the Oilers being within their division but I also think there are limits to that - not much more before it compromises the overall strength of the franchise of talent.

For example, I can't believe the Flyers wouldn't offer their first (11th) plus an offensive young roster player to get Schneider at the deadline or prior to the draft.

I'm shocked at the low return Gillis accepted for Schneider - a good quality starting goalie - the position of most impact. First rounders are very roughly 50/50 propositions whether they'll work out. He should have received at least one guaranteed decent/impact NHLer with a couple of years before he becomes a UFA in return - because that's what he gave up.

If I owned the Canucks, I would have fired Gillis before the 2nd round of the draft. This was a terrible deal for the Canucks. Gillis had one really good card to play and blew it. Now, I think they should fire Gillis (probably won't happen) and bring in a GM to consider blowing it up because even without Schneider's contract they only have $4 mil in cap space to sign 7 more players. The anticipated Ballard compliance buyout can double that but it's hard to add much to impact the roster when you've got $1 mil average left to sign players. Buying out Booth could help but how much better will they be with that dough in the wake of losing Derek Roy?

To me, this trade smells as bad as Mike Milbury's days as GM of the Isles.

One amendment to the above:

"Buying out Booth could help but how much better will they be with that dough in the wake of losing Derek Roy?"

Ankle injury means no buyout for Booth
That Canucks ?reset? won?t include David Booth, who can?t be paid off while injured
link

Currently, the Canucks have the 2nd worst cap $ available / per player to sign: $578 k per player. If they use a compliance buyout on Ballard, they'll shift to 3rd worst cap $ available / per player to sign with about an even mil per player.

And that's after trading Schneider.

Ballard was put on regular waivers today. Not the $100 unconditional waivers which is necessary for buyout purposes. They still have time to do that and seemingly have no choice with Booth's injury as they're desperate for cap room. In other words, they're in a bigger cap mess than I thought.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Ballard was put on regular waivers today. Not the $100 unconditional waivers which is necessary for buyout purposes. They still have time to do that and seemingly have no choice with Booth's injury as they're desperate for cap room. In other words, they're in a bigger cap mess than I thought.

I'm really unsure whether or not Gillis was truly aware of the cap trouble he was heading toward.  It's all well and good to talk up Luongo's trade value as he did and bluff about not giving him away as he really needed to do, but I really can't tell how much he privately recognized the both likelihood and the great necessity of giving Luongo away to help bail out his increasingly desperate cap situation.  He doubled down on a really bad hand.

 

[Kin]

I can't say I remember much beyond Horvat and Shinkaruk.

Well, I thought that right there was a pretty good start. After that I'm as clueless as anyone but they did draft the third Subban brother in the 4th round.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I can't say I remember much beyond Horvat and Shinkaruk.

Well, I thought that right there was a pretty good start. After that I'm as clueless as anyone but they did draft the third Subban brother in the 4th round.

Well Subban is really only significant because his brother won the Norris. He was picked in the 4th for a reason IMO, though he could always turn into something I guess.

I thought Calgary did really well at the draft (not hard with 3 first rounders)and I liked Edmonton's draft (for needs etc.).

I'm not really inclined to give a ton of credit to the Canucks as they traded away a major piece of their roster at a bad price IMO. If Nonis dealt Kessel or Kadri for the #5 pick, we could say the Leafs had a good draft, but on balance the cost outweighs the reward (or something). Not saying you're wrong, they had a better draft than Toronto, but what afforded them that opportunity was doing something that amounted to cents on the dollar. I hope Nonis never makes that kind of move.

 

[Kin]

If Nonis dealt Kessel or Kadri for the #5 pick, we could say the Leafs had a good draft, but on balance the cost outweighs the reward (or something). Not saying you're wrong, they had a better draft than Toronto, but what afforded them that opportunity was doing something that amounted to cents on the dollar. I hope Nonis never makes that kind of move.

Well, the way I'm looking at it is just what they did with the picks they had regardless of how they got them. I don't think the Canucks got great value for Schneider with the #9 pick but if I were going to be looking at things that way, I'd say the Canucks got way better value for Schneider(who we don't really know about long term) in the #9 pick than Calgary did for Bouwmeester, who's a pretty legit defenseman, for two so-so prospects and the #22 pick.

So that's the context for me. I like Horvat, I like Shinkaruk. Beyond that there's an extent to which anything beyond the first round is a total guessing game. If it weren't teams would have better records in terms of finding talent there. Anybody who gets picked in those rounds you could say "well, there must be a reason" like you do with Jordan Subban which, maybe fairly, renders any and all post-first round analysis meaningless. Maybe I'm just dopey and impressed with the familial connections. Still, like I said, if you asked me to give a first round draft grade to teams based on the little I know about these prospects? The Canucks would be one of the very few A students, along with Nashville and the Avs(although neither of them worked much for it) .

As for Schneider, I'm not as down on the trade as most, I think. I don't think it's spectacular or anything but honestly, I don't know that he's worth much more than that.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

James Reimer vs Cory Schneider vs Johnathon Bernier

JR : AGE 25~104 GP ~ 53W ~ 32L ~ .915SV% ~ 2.71GAA

CS: AGE 27~98 GP ~ 55W ~ 26L ~ .927SV% ~ 2.20GAA

JB: AGE 24~62GP ~ 29W ~ 20L ~ .912SV% ~ 2.36GAA


Other than Reimer's GAA being higher, I don't see any glaring differences between these 3 goalies. I am not saying that Reimer or Bernier are equal to Schneider, just that he's not far and away in a different world than them.

In the case of Reimer vs Schneider, the GAA difference can be attributed to, or atleast partly attributed to, playing on a Stanley Cup contender vs playing on a draft lottery contender.

 

[Bullfrog]

That's a fairly big jump in save percentage though. About the equivalent of an extra goal every third game; that could make a difference in a few wins.

 

[Kin]

That's a fairly big jump in save percentage though. About the equivalent of an extra goal every third game; that could make a difference in a few wins.

True. I would weigh that, however, against being three years older than Bernier. If you look at what Schneider at Bernier's there's really not much there.