2013 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[hockeyfan1]

Jose Bautista  @JoeyBats19
Not exactly the news i was hoping to announce...its a bittersweet day (injury is healing but not enough games left in season to come back)

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-bautista-done-for-season/

 

[bustaheims]

Bautista out for rest of season.  Femur bone bruise...

Good. Right now, the Jays need to lose as many games as they can and improve their draft position.

 

[Peter D.]

One of the few bright spots as the days wind down on yet another lost season is that Lawrie has been stellar defensively since he's returned from injury. It's as if he makes at least one highlight reel play per game. And his offense has come around too. Exciting to see him temper his attitude and generate that towards his play. He's showing he may be just scratching the surface as one of the best young talents in the game.

 

[Champ Kind]

Some incredible (not in a a good way) JP Arencibia stats, by way of Shi Davidi:

Still, since hitting his eighth homer in a 6-5, 11-inning win at Baltimore on April 24, Arencibia has posted a slash line of .185/.225/.315 with 12 homers and 37 RBIs. Without plus defence as a complement, that level of offence isn?t going to cut it.

Overall, his on-base percentage is .234.  On base!!!

 

[Deebo]

I remember reading that his OBP is among the worst in history, like bottom 5 ever.

 

[Peter D.]

How can anyone with as many plate appearances as he has be hitting below .200?  I wish he could fight back against his detractors with improved play on the field as opposed to a war of words.

I've thought that having him back as a backup catcher next year would be fine.  Now, I think he could really poison the atmosphere surrounding the team.

 

[Corn Flake]

How can anyone with as many plate appearances as he has be hitting below .200?  I wish he could fight back against his detractors with improved play on the field as opposed to a war of words.

I've thought that having him back as a backup catcher next year would be fine.  Now, I think he could really poison the atmosphere surrounding the team.

Usually you would want your backup catcher to be a solid defensive option if nothing else, but if JP can't even be that, then he should be out of a job.

I don't understand how a guy with stats as bad as his wouldn't change his approach. shorten your damned swing and just start slapping balls around. Stop swinging for the fences.  Or maybe he just can't hit MLB pitching. 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I remember reading that his OBP is among the worst in history, like bottom 5 ever.

Consider his on base percentage, a paltry .241 at time of writing. Only nine other hitters to qualify for the batting title ever posted an OBP below .250. Only three of those hitters got on base worse than JPA?s current clip.

...

Unbelievably, Arencibia?s inability to make consistent contact has robbed him of even .400 slugging percentage. A low OBP and a low slugging percentage makes for a very low OPS ? on base plus slugging. OPS isn?t perfect but it is a reasonable snapshot stat for overall production. J.P. Arencibia is the only qualified player in baseball history to hit 20 home runs without cracking a .650 OPS. The only one. Ever.

The worst season by OPS for a 20 home run hitter. Maybe you prefer OPS+, for its league-adjusted goodness? How many hitters that were eligible for the batting title, do you think, hit 20 home runs with an OPS+ below 70? Again: just one. Poor old J.P. and his OPS+ of 67.

http://blogs.thescore.com/mlb/2013/09/12/the-company-j-p-arencibia-keeps/

 

[KoHo]

Among catchers JP Arencibia has the WORST:

-AVG (.195)
-OBP (.230 - next lowest guy is .283)
-SLG% (.364)
-OPS (.594)
-BABIP (.235)
-WAR (-0.6)

Also has the fewest runs scored and the most strikeouts. He's truly having one of the worst seasons of all time, and to boot it turns out his good-guy persona was just a media show hiding his mad egotism and overall dickishness. There is no way AA can bring this guy back next year. If anyone hasn't earned a spot for next year, it's him.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm sure the team will look to upgrade behind the plate this offseason, but I'm equally sure they won't give up on JPA either. Even they can get him back to last season's levels, that would probably be good enough for them. He's still a very good power bat, and, if he can work on his pitch selection and cut down the Ks, he'd be a perfectly good bottom of the order bat behind the plate.

 

[Kin]

I'm sure the team will look to upgrade behind the plate this offseason, but I'm equally sure they won't give up on JPA either. Even they can get him back to last season's levels, that would probably be good enough for them. He's still a very good power bat, and, if he can work on his pitch selection and cut down the Ks, he'd be a perfectly good bottom of the order bat behind the plate.

I mean, it's something you can live with if need be but even at his previous levels it's something a good team would be looking to upgrade on. You might not give up on him but you can't be planning on giving him 400+ at bats either.

 

[Champ Kind]

He's still a very good power bat,

Wait, what?  Did you read Potvin's quote a few posts above?  There's mroe to power hitting than an occasional home run.

 

[bustaheims]

Wait, what?  Did you read Potvin's quote a few posts above?  There's mroe to power hitting than an occasional home run.

I recognize that, and I never said anything differently. I'm just saying that, from a power perspective, he still has value. His OPS and slugging are bad partly because he strikes out so much and partly because his pitch selection has gotten worse. There's no arguing that he's having an awful season overall. Nevertheless, he has 37 extra-base hits and has driven in 53 runs - perfectly acceptable numbers for a catcher (similar numbers to someone like Brian McCann). The power is still there. It's everything else that needs to improve.

 

[Champ Kind]

Wait, what?  Did you read Potvin's quote a few posts above?  There's mroe to power hitting than an occasional home run.

I recognize that, and I never said anything differently. I'm just saying that, from a power perspective, he still has value. His OPS and slugging are bad partly because he strikes out so much and partly because his pitch selection has gotten worse. There's no arguing that he's having an awful season overall. Nevertheless, he has 37 extra-base hits and has driven in 53 runs - perfectly acceptable numbers for a catcher (similar numbers to someone like Brian McCann). The power is still there. It's everything else that needs to improve.

I think we're sort fo saying the same thing, although you're seeing the glass half full and I'm not, I suppose.

What I do find remarkable is that his OBP has dipped to .230 and, of his 37 extra base hits, 20 of those are home runs.  I'm no stats historian, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find many instances of players who hit around 20 home runs having more HRs than doubles.

You know, JP's season is shaping up very similarly to Dan Uggla's.  22 HRs, 10 doubles, .181 average.  Although since he will take a walk, his on base is .310.  That's one tough contract to take (I think he's around $10M).

 

[bustaheims]

What I do find remarkable is that his OBP has dipped to .230 and, of his 37 extra base hits, 20 of those are home runs.  I'm no stats historian, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find many instances of players who hit around 20 home runs having more HRs than doubles.

It's actually not that unusual. Just this season, you have Uggla, Wil Venable, Coco Crisp, Arencibia, Evan Gattis, Adam Laroche, Brian McCann and Mark Reynolds having hit 20-22 HRs and have more homers than doubles.

 

[Champ Kind]

What I do find remarkable is that his OBP has dipped to .230 and, of his 37 extra base hits, 20 of those are home runs.  I'm no stats historian, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find many instances of players who hit around 20 home runs having more HRs than doubles.

It's actually not that unusual. Just this season, you have Uggla, Wil Venable, Coco Crisp, Arencibia, Evan Gattis, Adam Laroche, Brian McCann and Mark Reynolds having hit 20-22 HRs and have more homers than doubles.

How do you do that???

 

[bustaheims]

How do you do that???

I used this.

 

[Kin]

I recognize that, and I never said anything differently. I'm just saying that, from a power perspective, he still has value. His OPS and slugging are bad partly because he strikes out so much and partly because his pitch selection has gotten worse. There's no arguing that he's having an awful season overall. Nevertheless, he has 37 extra-base hits and has driven in 53 runs - perfectly acceptable numbers for a catcher (similar numbers to someone like Brian McCann). The power is still there. It's everything else that needs to improve.

Except that even at JP's best his SLG% was .438 which is roughly what Jose Reyes and Anthony Gose have slugged this year. Sure he's hit some homeruns but saying that means he's got value as a power bat would be a little bit like saying that someone who scored 12 goals had value as a goal scorer because 8 of them were on breakaways.

 

[bustaheims]

Except that even at JP's best his SLG% was .438 which is roughly what Jose Reyes and Anthony Gose have slugged this year. Sure he's hit some homeruns but saying that means he's got value as a power bat would be a little bit like saying that someone who scored 12 goals had value as a goal scorer because 8 of them were on breakaways.

It would also be good for 30th in the AL among qualified batters this season, which is, you know, not exactly the equivalent of a 12 goal scorer at all. It's right up there with Adam Dunn, who most people would very much consider to be a very good power bat.

 

[Kin]

It would also be good for 30th in the AL among qualified batters this season, which is, you know, not exactly the equivalent of a 12 goal scorer at all. It's right up there with Adam Dunn, who most people would very much consider to be a very good power bat.

Adam Dunn, of the 0.9 oWAR and -0.4 bWAR? I mean, you're right in that is pretty comparable to the value JP's been providing but considering that a slugging percentage of .433 would be up there with the best of JP's career and is 60 points off of Adam Dunn's career average would highlight that JP's career high of a 1.6 bWAR(who grade him well defensively) or 1.1 fWAR(who don't) is not the kind of thing a team would be satisfied with, kind of like a 12 goal scorer.