I agree with your statement. I would be very surprised if Leafs can with 2 or 3 of the games against Florida and I would also be surprised if they can get through the first round.
Stolarz and Tanev are influential enough to steal a game or two, maybe that can make the difference.
If they get the defense healthy and can somehow return to playing like they did at the start of the season, they could win a round or two. Maybe even more if the stars finally come through (not likely especially with whatever is going on with Matthews). But an injury to one of the top 5 dmen (especially Tanev, or McCabe) will spell the end, unless the goalies stand on their heads.
This game against Florida should tell us a lot. Florida has the Tkachuk injury plus they are down a defenseman - no excuses even if Tanev is still out. Show up on time, play smart for 60 minutes, try looking like a contender instead of a pretender.