Coyotes to stay in Phoenix, apparently

[bustaheims]

RIM's demise may not be as imminent as some want to believe, but, the reality is that they're likely one misstep from total collapse. Their revenue has dropped significantly (19% from Q3 to Q4, 25% from Q4 last year to Q4 this year), and if their new OS has anything more than minor issues, it's going to continue to drop. If they're going to survive as an independent entity, at the very least, they need to stem the tide.

 

[AvroArrow]

RIM's demise may not be as imminent as some want to believe, but, the reality is that they're likely one misstep from total collapse. Their revenue has dropped significantly (19% from Q3 to Q4, 25% from Q4 last year to Q4 this year), and if their new OS has anything more than minor issues, it's going to continue to drop. If they're going to survive as an independent entity, at the very least, they need to stem the tide.

It'd have to be one enormous misstep...like a $1-2 B acquisition gone bad.

They're sitting on $2 B and still profitable.

 

[AvroArrow]

And PS, people have been saying that they're on the verge of bankruptcy for the last 5 years.  It's as untrue now as it was then.

 

[cw]

Guys, I didn't mean to derail the thread.  If people want to converse on the topic, perhaps a mod could move the relevant posts.  Essentially, the idea that RIM is going bust, near bankruptcy, etc is utter crap.

$2.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, short-term and long-term investments at the end of the
quarter, which increased by approximately $610 million in the quarter

A company in that position is not on the verge of bankruptcy.

Plus, their so-called "loss" in the last quarter was not a monetary loss.  It was adjusted due to inventory problems or something (from same link):

The Company?s GAAP net  loss for the fourth quarter  of fiscal 2012  was  $125 million, or $0.24  per share
diluted, compared with GAAP net income of $265 million, or $0.51 per share diluted, in the prior quarter and
GAAP net income of $934 million, or $1.78 per share diluted, in the same quarter of fiscal 2011.  Adjusted net
income for the fourth quarter was $418 million, or $0.80 per share diluted. Adjusted net income and adjusted 2
diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter exclude the impact of pre-tax charges of $355 million which
are predominantly non-cash ($346 million after tax) for the impairment of goodwill and $267 million ($197
million after-tax) for an inventory provision taken primarily on certain BlackBerry7 products.

In addition, BlackBerry is the #1 smartphone in several markets.  I believe, UK, Latin America, and some others - don't remember them all.  They're also growing quickly in some emerging smartphone markets like Indonesia


It just really irritates me that people perpetuate the idea that they're in any way close to going bankrupt.  From the financials alone, they could survive about 10 years on the status quo.  Obviously, they're hard at work at going above and beyond the status quo to turn the stock around.

The stock tanked...there's no denying that.  But they're not close to busting or going bankrupt.

Well I didn't take the position they're close to going bankrupt:

As of this moment, they're not financially underwater like Nortel was (their shareholders are). So they would have a ways to go. But their brand is seriously damaged.

10 reasons why things can get worse for RIM
There are a gazillion articles like the above. That one is a little dated and actually rather kind.

RIM's future: dead, alive or reborn?
RIM's future: dead, alive or reborn?
The only somewhat positive sign is that cash increased by $610m leaving RIM with $2.1bn in its coffers, a fact pre-eminently featured in their press release. The message is clear: Look, we've got plenty of cash to last us until "late 2012" when we'll be back with new BB10-powered smartphones.

This is a dubious proposition.

RIM will undoubtedly undergo another two or three quarters of marketshare erosion and losses. Last quarter's combination of positive cash flow in spite of losses can't be repeated indefinitely, there's only so much inventory you can liquidate ? at a loss ? before you see the bottom of the cash register.

Having decent cash on hand is better than Nortel's situation was but they're on pace to burn through it pretty quickly - before the end of this year. If the new roll out doesn't happen or isn't a success before the end of the year, in the wake of a string of failures, they may not be able to recover from that and their best move may be to allow Microsoft to take them over sometime between now and then. If they wait too long and project to fall short, they'll be closer to worthless relative to where they've been.

...
The trouble for RIM is simply stated: too little too late, while the money runs out. If only the cure were as easily put.

I worked with the Playbook O/S last summer. Had to stop. It isn't ready for prime time - poor apps and development tools, support, etc. Meanwhile Apple & others are pulling ahead. I don't think RIM is about to go bankrupt - even if they run out of cash at the end of the year. But I do think they're in serious jeopardy of not continuing to be relevant in the foreseeable future. Where the Nortel parallel exists would be where those who held stock have lost big time.

 

[bustaheims]

It'd have to be one enormous misstep...like a $1-2 B acquisition gone bad.

They're sitting on $2 B and still profitable.

It really wouldn't have to be anything like that. If their new OS or their new handsets have any significant issues on roll out, their revenue will continue to drop (and, likely, drop more significantly than it already has) and put them below the point where they'd be profitable. Their net income dropped almost 65% from last year to this year. They can't take another hit anywhere close to that without dipping well past the point of profitability.

 

[cw]

RIM's demise may not be as imminent as some want to believe, but, the reality is that they're likely one misstep from total collapse. Their revenue has dropped significantly (19% from Q3 to Q4, 25% from Q4 last year to Q4 this year), and if their new OS has anything more than minor issues, it's going to continue to drop. If they're going to survive as an independent entity, at the very least, they need to stem the tide.

It'd have to be one enormous misstep...like a $1-2 B acquisition gone bad.

They're sitting on $2 B and still profitable.

They lost $125 mil last quarter. They've been in pretty steep decline. And they're selling something they don't have yet - something like they did with the Playbook. If they don't get it launched by the end of the year, their cash runs out. I'm sure they'll launch it. But if it has trouble like the Playbook, they're in serious trouble.

 

[hockeyfan1]

RIM's demise may not be as imminent as some want to believe, but, the reality is that they're likely one misstep from total collapse. Their revenue has dropped significantly (19% from Q3 to Q4, 25% from Q4 last year to Q4 this year), and if their new OS has anything more than minor issues, it's going to continue to drop. If they're going to survive as an independent entity, at the very least, they need to stem the tide.

It'd have to be one enormous misstep...like a $1-2 B acquisition gone bad.

They're sitting on $2 B and still profitable.

They lost $125 mil last quarter. They've been in pretty steep decline. And they're selling something they don't have yet - something like they did with the Playbook. If they don't get it launched by the end of the year, their cash runs out. I'm sure they'll launch it. But if it has trouble like the Playbook, they're in serious trouble.

The trouble with RIM, according to an article I read in Maclean's magazine on it's rise and fall, is that RIM, or rather, it's executives namely Balaillie and Lazaridis failed to gauge the ascension of Apple's success with it's devices such as the iPad and Phone, dismissing them as not having the appeal that would eventually propel them in high demand.  That was RIM's first mistake. 

The fact that the Playbook felt like a "rushed" tablet to many, due to it's flawed software issues goes to show that RIM's plan was not well thought out.  In a desperate bid to rival Apple, they failed to first of all understand Apple's rise and appeal of it's products, and that they would become a direct competitor to RIM's products, and market share.

RIM's flawed decision-making and execution of it's business due to an antiquated board and decision-making infrastructure, led to it's erosion.  When Apple chose to open a store right in RIM's backyard in Waterloo (not far from their headquarters), iit became an exclamation mark of it's victory.

I own a Playbook, and with the 2.1v update, it runs far more smoothly.  But I must admit, it's no iPad.

 

[cw]

The trouble with RIM, according to an article I read in Maclean's magazine on it's rise and fall, is that RIM, or rather, it's executives namely Balaillie and Lazaridis failed to gauge the ascension of Apple's success with it's devices such as the iPad and Phone, dismissing them as not having the appeal that would eventually propel them in high demand.  That was RIM's first mistake. 

The fact that the Playbook felt like a "rushed" tablet to many, due to it's flawed software issues goes to show that RIM's plan was not well thought out.  In a desperate bid to rival Apple, they failed to first of all understand Apple's rise and appeal of it's products, and that they would become a direct competitor to RIM's products, and market share.

RIM's flawed decision-making and execution of it's business due to an antiquated board and decision-making infrastructure, led to it's erosion.  When Apple chose to open a store right in RIM's backyard in Waterloo (not far from their headquarters), iit became an exclamation mark of it's victory.

I own a Playbook, and with the 2.1v update, it runs far more smoothly.  But I must admit, it's no iPad.

I think those articles are not far off.

I tried a Playbook for a few weeks with the 1.x O/S and spent hours with their tech support. I concluded that a 1970 DEC PDP 11 had better development tools. The Playbook had good hardware but the first operating system was a terrible joke - way too soon for prime time. They basically panicked. That product should have never gone to market at the time it did. They bought QNX, ported it and started shipping five months later - a crazy time frame to develop and debug something like that.

Applications are why people buy computers. They were scant on the Playbook when it came out as Playbook has this basically new proprietary QNX O/S. And this is where RIM has really hurt itself. With what has gone on, what software developer wants to invest software development in such a shaky direction? Apple or Android are a much better bet. So when RIM releases the new BB10, as I'm sure they will, they are facing a similar problem. They may deliver an operating system that works better than the first Playbook but the key is going to be the apps available for it. They just released the first development units that apparently don't look like the final product so those developers left willing to continue working with RIM don't have a lot of time and will have to retest when they get the hardware finalized ... while RIM's cash is projected to run out at year end.

So this is a bit of a desperate Hail Mary attempt with the goalie pulled to try to quickly get back into the game. It's a little like knocking yourself out, committed to throwing a big party at year end and you already know a bunch of people simply can't or won't show up. As they're a Canadian company, I wish them the best but it's a very tough situation to pull off as quickly as they're trying to.

 

[maplesyrup]

I actually like my Playbook.  :-\ Sure, I'd like more apps but really, the e-reader was the only one I absolutely needed to buy and in fact, it remains the only one I have bought. It handles most video formats (unlike the ipod as I understand) and suits my needs just fine. Now, I'm not going to say it's better than the ipad but value wise?  I think the Playbook wins there. What is it? $500+ vs $200.00? - Or something like that?

 

[Kin]

Well, regardless of the long term prospects of Blackberry(and my dislike for Jim Balsillie aside I hope they're alright) if we're going to look back fondly at that 350 page behemoth thread I would like to take this one opportunity to gloat about just how wrong people were about Balsillie.

From saying the NHL would crumble because they couldn't possibly stand up to someone with his money to saying that someone as shrewd as he was would never spend all this money on lawyers if he was wrong about the particulars to the even better argument that Jim Balsillie was such a terrrific businessman that his plans to put another team in Southern Ontario couldn't possibly be anything but roses and sunshine, well, wrong, wrong and super-wrong.

The guy's a jerk who tried to elbow his way into a league that wanted nothing to do with him and tried to do it on the cheap. Hopefully his footnote in the history of the league is the fairly obvious point that if you want to get into an exclusive club, you probably shouldn't go about pissing off the other members.

 

[cw]

As I suggested before, I hope RIM connects on their Hail Mary as well.

Hindsight is 20/20 but when you look back at the distraction Balsillie got himself into in 2009 going after the Coyotes, to some extent I can understand bitter shareholders wondering why he would allow something like that to take his eye off the ball at a time when his corporation needed 100% of his attention and focus. I'm sure the Coyotes didn't get 100% of his attention but it had to be a significant distraction with all the press coverage and lawyers.

The other interesting thing I got a sense of when I went through the introduction of the Playbook was similar to some things I felt when I went through the docket of court documents on Balsillie. This guy is a bit of a swashbuckler when it comes to managing things. That sometimes works well for an entrepreneur and sometimes it bites them. For Balsillie, it's probably been a bit of both.

I agree with Nik re his approach to the NHL. If he'd truly tried the front door properly, he'd probably be in the club. But from the outset, he schemed to save himself a buck. Everyone wants to save a buck but some wouldn't resort to the sorts of things Balsillie did for ethical reasons. Balsillie could have, for example, bought the Leafs and then sold them after he blessed expansion to Hamilton to get the Hamilton franchise. We may see Rogers and Bell do that. It wouldn't have been cheap but he might have made out ok financially and got his dream team. Over time, he definitely would have done well because he would wind up with a franchise that would probably be the 3rd or 4th most valuable in the league -which would dwarf what he'd have to pay for it and he'd get all the annual profits that would certainly have followed.

His net worth probably largely plummeted with the RIM stock so there's little chance of him being able to finance such a thing any time soon. With the collapse of RIM stock, maybe this has all worked out for the best even for him.

 

[ZBBM]

Apologies that my offhand smartypants remark caused such a kerfuffle.  My point is that Bettman, in retrospect, was right to look at Balsillie as a suspect owner.  And that Balsillie himself ought to be glad he didn't get the team, as that's one more financial headache he (as things have turned out) didn't need.

 

[hockeyfan1]

I actually like my Playbook.  :-\ Sure, I'd like more apps but really, the e-reader was the only one I absolutely needed to buy and in fact, it remains the only one I have bought. It handles most video formats (unlike the ipod as I understand) and suits my needs just fine. Now, I'm not going to say it's better than the ipad but value wise?  I think the Playbook wins there. What is it? $500+ vs $200.00? - Or something like that?

I like my Playbook, too.  For flash player (videos, etc), it is excellent.  In that regard, the IPad (not having Flash, cannot match it).  However, as good as the Playbook is on it's own, the iPad is far superior on it's own merits.  A family member of mine owns an IPad and apart from missing the flash capabilities, finds it easier to use and more intuitive than the Playbook, on a comparative note.

As for applications, I do not need much, if any, but, that Apple offers tons of apps for any and evey taste, which is one of it's strongest selling points for it's excellent devices.  The fact that, not only that, but, that they work seamlessly with few glitches if any, makes them simply one of the better quality products out there.  People will fork over the cash for an iPad, expensive or not.

The attraction for me as towards the Playbook was price, flash, portability, and relative ease of use.  Also , the fact that they were going to come up with the updated software was another.

Don't get me wrong.  I love the iPad & iPhone, even my MacBook Pro.  They are beautiful machines that just operate well. 
(All of them, with the exception of the iPhone 4s were gifts bought for us from relatives (birthday gifts)).  I must admit if I had to spend that kind of money on an IPad, I'd hesitate.  Which is why I bought myself a low-cost tablet -- the Playbook.

 

[ZBBM]

  They are beautiful machines that just operate well. 

This is the crux of it.  I started using Macs when they first came out ca. 1984 and have never used anything else since, even in the "down years" when it looked like the company might not make it.  The operating systems, ease of use, and capabilities far outstripped Windows/IBM/MS for years.  And they are beautifully designed (Ive is a genius, period, whereas Jobs IMHO may have been a business genius but had many many failings in other areas).

Nonetheless I don't consider myself an Apple acolyte.  If somebody else made products that worked as well, looked as good, and for a lesser price, I'd buy them.  And I have some concern as to whether Apple will abandon the computer biz altogether and manufacture solely iOS devices. 

 

[cw]

Which is why I bought myself a low-cost tablet -- the Playbook.

They were not that low cost when they came out. They slashed the pricing when it failed to get market acceptance.

For the applications like playing a video, it is good. I was also quite impressed with the hardware. It was in the business, MS office type apps (just being able to read those docs), email, development & support where it fell over for me.

For what you paid and what you want to do with it, it's a pretty good value. The upgraded O/S helps a lot too but that wasn't around when I originally checked it out (& wasted a bunch of time).

 

[hockeyfan1]

The Coyotes and hockey are now the talk of the town....

http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/47266-Once-an-afterthought-Coyotes-creating-excitement-about-hockey-with-run-to-conference-finals.html

 

[Kin]

The city of Glendale just laid off 50 people, apparently.

So, you know, keep writing those 25 million dollar checks to the NHL.

 

[Bates]

Yeah because those 50 jobs could actually be saved by letting the arena sit empty???

 

[Kin]

Yeah because those 50 jobs could actually be saved by letting the arena sit empty???

Well, they probably could but more to the point, it illustrates just what a terrible idea it was for Glendale to get into the arena subsidizing business in the first place.

 

[cw]

Yeah because those 50 jobs could actually be saved by letting the arena sit empty???

When they built the arena, subsidizing was not a part of the plan. But that's water long gone under the bridge.

The issue they've been facing since Moyes bailed out is whether they can find a way where the subsidizing is less than what it would cost them if the tenant left. If they do (and quite frankly, they did long ago except for Goldwater & the gift clause), then there will be fewer people laid off at the city. And all the jobs related to the operation of the rink and some of the jobs with businesses that enjoy some sales from hockey fans will continue.

If the team leaves, there will be a bunch more people looking for work - including more city employees.