Nik the Trik said:
It's hard to see. The contracts that we've seen that are real boat anchors aren't the ones that end when a guy is 36. They're the ones that end at 40+. Honestly, I see the Clarkson contract right now a lot like I saw the Grabovski contract a week ago. Yeah, too much, yeah too much term but provided that Clarkson can be even 75% of what people want him to be I'm pretty convinced that he'd be tradable.
I agree with some of what you're saying.
A contract becomes a boat anchor when it's cap hit is fairly large and the player cannot continue to play close to the level of cap hit he's getting. That often happens to those 40+ deals.
Clarkson is not a great skater. Doesn't pass the puck well. Doesn't have a high hockey IQ. He's not great defensively. His shot and hands are not great - just kind of serviceable for his projected role. But he does a couple of things with high regularity that a lot of players won't: he plays with a lot of grit and he goes to the tough areas of the ice to bang in his goals.
Gritty guys don't age well in the NHL. They tend to have a much shorter wick because they wear down and become injury prone/chronically injured much sooner. Darcy Tucker reached the place where he couldn't play up to his cap hit long before 40 (although $3 mil wasn't a true boat anchor) and he's 38 today, ending his career at 35. Ditto for Colby Armstrong - who was a heart and soul guy until he got hurt playing for the Leafs. Happened with Wendel Clark -really before he was 30 though he ended his career around 33. The only guy I can think of off hand who enjoyed a long career and kept doing it to some degree was Gary Roberts - I'm sure there are a few exceptions. Tucker lasted a little longer than he might have but he largely stopped playing gritty, lost his feisty edge and became a perimeter player/goal suck towards the end. Leafs bought him out when he was 33 or so. Leafs bought out Colby Armstrong when he was 28 or so.
Human beings are involved here and so it's not a rule we can cast in stone. But the odds are that Clarkson will feel like he's 42 when he turns 36 because of how he's played the game. That's a key reason that a bunch of NHLers won't play that way or can't play that way any longer.
So this contract may end when Clarkson is 36 but effectively, it's probably a 40+ contract in my mind.
On the upside, the construction of a Lupul-Kadri-Clarkson line reminds me a lot of what Vancouver (Nonis as ass't GM) did with Naslund-Morrison-Bertuzzi where the whole becomes greater than the sum of the parts. If those guys stay healthy and carry on from where they left off, that could be one of the most lethal scoring lines in the NHL next season. A player like Clarkson is something this forward group sorely lacked (not far behind a franchise center) and it gives opponents a much different offensive look than what Kessel will do from the right side on the other line. They may want to consider a fairly long deal with Kadri now.
In the short term, I don't think it's unreasonable to predict or expect that Clarkson should produce top 6 points with Lupul-Kadri. Kadri's going to find this guy goal sucking in the slot/in the tough places and put it on his blade - I'm almost sure of it. Clarkson will bang in his share of those opportunities. And maybe that's why Nonis swung for the fences on this deal.
Clarkson can play both wings so he could play with Kessel but he won't be able to keep up with Bozak & Kessel who tend to score on the move so I do wonder about the fit there.
Hopefully, Nonis can find away to shore up the D without the cap bucks he spent on Clarkson.
I don't expect Clarkson to be very tradeable in the latter half of this deal.