Draft Pick Watch - WE PICKED NYLANDER!!1!!

[L K]

There is still a mathematical chance at the playoffs but that is becoming more and more unlikely as the days go by.  Time to look at where the Leafs might wind up in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft.

3		Florida		75		62
4		NYI		74		68
5		Calgary		74		69
6		Carolina		74		74
7		Nashville		75		75
8		Winnipeg		74		75
9		Ottawa		74		76
10		New Jersey		74		77
11		Vancouver		75		79

12		Toronto		76		80
13		Washington		74		80
14		Columbus		74		82
15		Dallas		74		83
16		Detroit		75		84
17		Phoenix		74		84
18		Minnesota		74		85
19		NYR		75		86
20		Philadelphia		74		86
21		Tampa Bay		74		91

Right now the Leafs would draft 12th.  They officially cannot catch Buffalo and Edmonton for 1st/2nd overall and realistically can probably only drop as low as 9th.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

With their games in hand and how this team is free-falling 6th isn't even out of the question. Then we pray for the lottery to help us.

 

[ZBBM]

Are you issuing an invitation for Tank Nation to be resurrected?

 

[Mack674]

Tank. Might as well, need to rebuild again.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Are you issuing an invitation for Tank Nation to be resurrected?

The team is doing fine by themselves on that front. Just don't call up Boyd Devereaux.

 

[Kessel Run]

Are you issuing an invitation for Tank Nation to be resurrected?

The team is doing fine by themselves on that front. Just don't call up Boyd Devereaux.

Or Martin Gerber.

 

[rdowdall]

I believe there is a song that states "In the end it doesn't really matter".  I believe that all Leaf fans should follow this mantra.

Please do not mistake this post as one made in anger.  While I may be under the influence somewhat, I am not in any way angry. 

More so I am just puzzled.  Basically I do not understand how the Leafs can keep defying the odds.  I don't understand how this team can be this bad year in and year out.  Yes, last year they made the playoffs, but it was a shortened season, and they were starting to fall off near the end, and if the season was a full season there is a real possibility that they would have missed the playoffs last year as well.  They didn't, but for that reason above I don't know if I would really call it a feather in their cap.

Law of averages would imply that at some point this team would be decent.  That they would rebound, and sort of luck, for lack of a better word, itself in to a team that could compete.  That hasn't happened.  They have somehow managed to maintain the same status quo of failure for the better part of a decade.

It doesn't really matter where they draft.  They will ruin the player or trade them for some ill begotten magic beans. 

It doesn't really matter if they fire Randy Carlyle or keep him.  The person behind the bench will not be able to coach in this market because they will eventually make mistakes and that will be their undoing. 

It doesn't really matter if they fire Dave Nonis or keep him.  The next general manager or Dave Nonis himself will have or has a plan in place, and eventually the flaws of this plan will bring the house of cards that is the Leafs down to the ground, providing the rubble which the next GM will stick their flag into.  They'll attempt to plant seeds in the rubble.  They'll attempt to placate fans with the promises of hope, and of a future that is brighter than that of the present.  Those promises will be empty and the seeds will not bear fruit.

Really your only options are to abide by what is to transpire, or to walk away.  You can debate, and quote stats all you like, but in the end, it won't change the outcome.  It won't change the reality of the situation, and that reality is that this city will not or can not produce a winning hockey team.  I understand that you may have hope.  I understand that you may believe.  In the end though, those are wasted, because the best predictor of the future is the past, and the past 48 years says that there will be no winning in the sport of hockey for the city of Toronto. 

If you want, I can save this post and re-post it again next year with the 48 incremented by one.

 

[princedpw]

I'm not all that doom and gloom but I will say that the worst thing to happen to the Leafs organization over the last 30 years is the cap.  It took away a massive advantage that they had that could put them in the playoffs most years just as they were beginning to build a culture of using it. Darn. 

 

[jdh1]

The best thing for management can do this off season,is not panic and move the young players for a quick fix...Past GM's have done exactly that.If Nonis can withstand the temptation and work from the youth up,he will eventually succeed.

 

[rdowdall]

The best thing for management can do this off season,is not panic and move the young players for a quick fix...Past GM's have done exactly that.If Nonis can withstand the temptation and work from the youth up,he will eventually succeed.

Sure, until they draft a serial killer, or some kid that has leprosy.  Then they should trade those young players.  I don't expect them to get much for them.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

#CrapInTheBedpanForMcCann

 

[Leaflifer]

I won't let myself believe there is something inherently loser-ish about the leafs. I live in the west now and I hear it all the time. The conversation usually goes something like this:

BCer, "leafs suck, hey?
Me, "Actually they are a rebuilding team, all teams go through it."

But I have to ponder the honest response these days:

BCer, "leafs suck, hey?
Me, "Ayup."

 

[Jalili]

I'm not all that doom and gloom but I will say that the worst thing to happen to the Leafs organization over the last 30 years is the cap.  It took away a massive advantage that they had that could put them in the playoffs most years just as they were beginning to build a culture of using it. Darn.

That's an interesting way of looking at it.

To this day, I think the franchise messed up royally by not rebuilding back in 2005 as it should have.

 

[L K]

I'm not all that doom and gloom but I will say that the worst thing to happen to the Leafs organization over the last 30 years is the cap.  It took away a massive advantage that they had that could put them in the playoffs most years just as they were beginning to build a culture of using it. Darn.

That's an interesting way of looking at it.

To this day, I think the franchise messed up royally by not rebuilding back in 2005 as it should have.

You had to give them that one season, but I don't disagree that once they fired Quinn that maybe a rebuild was in order there.  My problem with what ended up happening is that there was no private discussion with the current core of the team.  There wasn't an opportunity to explain where the team was planning to go to allow McCabe, Tucker, Sundin, Kaberle etc. a chance to think about moving on over the offseason.  Instead we just waited until Fletcher treated everyone like stink and disrespected one of the best, if not the greatest, player the organization has ever had.

The Leafs still really haven't embraced the proper use of the cap IMO.  Bad buyouts.  Overpaying flawed players to substantial contracts.  Not leveraging draft picks and home grown players in your bottom 6.  Having your team up against the cap and yet you are the organization retaining salary on trades.

I really haven't seen a single year where the Leafs management have shown any sort of acuity for working the Cap to the teams advantage.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'm not all that doom and gloom but I will say that the worst thing to happen to the Leafs organization over the last 30 years is the cap.  It took away a massive advantage that they had that could put them in the playoffs most years just as they were beginning to build a culture of using it. Darn.

That's an interesting way of looking at it.

To this day, I think the franchise messed up royally by not rebuilding back in 2005 as it should have.

You had to give them that one season, but I don't disagree that once they fired Quinn that maybe a rebuild was in order there.  My problem with what ended up happening is that there was no private discussion with the current core of the team.  There wasn't an opportunity to explain where the team was planning to go to allow McCabe, Tucker, Sundin, Kaberle etc. a chance to think about moving on over the offseason.  Instead we just waited until Fletcher treated everyone like stink and disrespected one of the best, if not the greatest, player the organization has ever had.

The Leafs still really haven't embraced the proper use of the cap IMO.  Bad buyouts.  Overpaying flawed players to substantial contracts.  Not leveraging draft picks and home grown players in your bottom 6.  Having your team up against the cap and yet you are the organization retaining salary on trades.

I really haven't seen a single year where the Leafs management have shown any sort of acuity for working the Cap to the teams advantage.

And just the fact that they say they have an analytics budget that they don't use.  Why wouldn't you flex your financial muscle wherever possible in a cap system?  Even if you don't buy into it 100% it's another viewpoint to help make decisions.  Stuff like that.

 

[rdowdall]

I'm not all that doom and gloom but I will say that the worst thing to happen to the Leafs organization over the last 30 years is the cap.  It took away a massive advantage that they had that could put them in the playoffs most years just as they were beginning to build a culture of using it. Darn.

That's an interesting way of looking at it.

To this day, I think the franchise messed up royally by not rebuilding back in 2005 as it should have.

You had to give them that one season, but I don't disagree that once they fired Quinn that maybe a rebuild was in order there.  My problem with what ended up happening is that there was no private discussion with the current core of the team.  There wasn't an opportunity to explain where the team was planning to go to allow McCabe, Tucker, Sundin, Kaberle etc. a chance to think about moving on over the offseason.  Instead we just waited until Fletcher treated everyone like stink and disrespected one of the best, if not the greatest, player the organization has ever had.

The Leafs still really haven't embraced the proper use of the cap IMO.  Bad buyouts.  Overpaying flawed players to substantial contracts.  Not leveraging draft picks and home grown players in your bottom 6.  Having your team up against the cap and yet you are the organization retaining salary on trades.

I really haven't seen a single year where the Leafs management have shown any sort of acuity for working the Cap to the teams advantage.

And just the fact that they say they have an analytics budget that they don't use.  Why wouldn't you flex your financial muscle wherever possible in a cap system?  Even if you don't buy into it 100% it's another viewpoint to help make decisions.  Stuff like that.

I think this is the root of the Leafs problem.  Their arrogance to keep doing things the way that they think they should be done, rather than embracing ways that work in other markets. 

If you look back to 67, they refused to or couldn't adjust to the new draft system.  They never really understood the draft system and they still don't use it properly.  They could dump loads of cash in to building a drafting infrastructure that would be the envy of every team in the league.  With the financial resources they have at their disposal, they could have a draft training system in place for training new scouts.  Their scouts should be the best in the league.  I'm not sure that this is currently the case.

Then, because they refused to draft properly they started to rely on free agency.  They seemed to be able to utilize those dollars correctly during the Quinn years, but as was brought up by prince, they lost that leverage when the cap was introduced.  Again the Leafs failed to buy in to the system that was put in place for the league, thinking that somehow the financial clout that they carried would solve the problems that the created through poor decisions. 

Somewhere along the line, they have to stop relying on their money as a solution to a problem, and look at it as resource that they can utilize in order to avoid problems.  This too me is the where the Leafs are fatally flawed.  They have no incentive to *think* about what they should do.  They are constantly reactive, where they should be proactive.

 

[Kin]

With the financial resources they have at their disposal, they could have a draft training system in place for training new scouts.  Their scouts should be the best in the league.  I'm not sure that this is currently the case.

But what does that mean in a practical sense? What examples are there that scouting players is enough of a measurable skill that you can really train it or supplement one's skills by means of throwing cash at it? I can't think, off the top of my head, of a franchise in any sport who've had a big financial advantage over other teams and somehow been able to translate that into a way to quantify scouting in any meaningful sense.

I agree that it's frustrating that the Leafs can't use their financial clout to improve the team but they needed to fight the cap if they wanted to win with money.

 

[rdowdall]

With the financial resources they have at their disposal, they could have a draft training system in place for training new scouts.  Their scouts should be the best in the league.  I'm not sure that this is currently the case.

But what does that mean in a practical sense? What examples are there that scouting players is enough of a measurable skill that you can really train it or supplement one's skills by means of throwing cash at it? I can't think, off the top of my head, of a franchise in any sport who've had a big financial advantage over other teams and somehow been able to translate that into a way to quantify scouting in any meaningful sense.

I agree that it's frustrating that the Leafs can't use their financial clout to improve the team but they needed to fight the cap if they wanted to win with money.

Alright, then how does any organization build a solid employee base that is worth it's return on investment?  Detriot has one of the best, if not the best, European scout in the word in Hakan Andersson.  He is not going to leave the Detriot organization because Detriot does whatever it takes to keep him happy and to keep him employed within that organization. 

I don't know how the Detriot organization hired Andersson.  I don't know what his credentials are.  I know that he is responsible for a lot of the late round draft picks that Detriot is able to turn in to extremely viable NHL'ers. 

You look at Ottawa, and they have one of the best scouts in Pierre Dorian.  He is a very good judge of hockey talent, and the Senators have been really good at drafting and developing players over the years.  It's how they have remained competitive despite not have the financial resources of a team like the Leafs.

The Leafs need to find talent evaluators, and then they need to retain them. I don't know how you find them.  I don't know how you determine if they are good or not.  This is why I am not a president or a GM of a hockey team.  But the Leafs should know how to determine this, and they should find them.  And they have the resources to exhaust to find them.

 

[Kin]

You look at Ottawa, and they have one of the best scouts in Pierre Dorian.  He is a very good judge of hockey talent, and the Senators have been really good at drafting and developing players over the years.  It's how they have remained competitive despite not have the financial resources of a team like the Leafs.

The Sens have been good but are they better than the Leafs? If so, how do you separate scouting from development in terms of assigning credit for the players that eventually contribute? How do you separate draft position from the question?

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure a super-compelling case can be made that, outside of a few examples across all sports, that any team "scouts" particularly better than another.

The Leafs need to find talent evaluators, and then they need to retain them. I don't know how you find them.  I don't know how you determine if they are good or not.  This is why I am not a president or a GM of a hockey team.  But the Leafs should know how to determine this, and they should find them.  And they have the resources to exhaust to find them.

Again, I just don't know what money has to do with it. Outside of hiring someone who's experienced at the trade and letting them do the job for a couple years I don't see how you can judge them legitimately. I'm certainly not going to criticize the Leafs for not being able to do what essentially no franchise in professional sports has been able to do.

 

[rdowdall]

You look at Ottawa, and they have one of the best scouts in Pierre Dorian.  He is a very good judge of hockey talent, and the Senators have been really good at drafting and developing players over the years.  It's how they have remained competitive despite not have the financial resources of a team like the Leafs.

The Sens have been good but are they better than the Leafs? If so, how do you separate scouting from development in terms of assigning credit for the players that eventually contribute? How do you separate draft position from the question?

Honestly, I'm not entirely sure a super-compelling case can be made that, outside of a few examples across all sports, that any team "scouts" particularly better than another.

The Leafs need to find talent evaluators, and then they need to retain them. I don't know how you find them.  I don't know how you determine if they are good or not.  This is why I am not a president or a GM of a hockey team.  But the Leafs should know how to determine this, and they should find them.  And they have the resources to exhaust to find them.

Again, I just don't know what money has to do with it. Outside of hiring someone who's experienced at the trade and letting them do the job for a couple years I don't see how you can judge them legitimately. I'm certainly not going to criticize the Leafs for not being able to do what essentially no franchise in professional sports has been able to do.

So then how do you account for the dominance of certain teams over a period of time compared to others.  For example in the NFL, the Ravens have been pretty decent for a while now, whereas the Browns are horrid year after year. 

Detriot makes the playoffs every year.  Leafs, not so much.

Basketball has the Spurs, whereas the Knicks can't seem to get out of their own way.

Baseball is largely a money issue.  So I won't use any team there as an example.  If you have money, you can field a decent team.