General Leafs Talk v2.0

[moon111]

Maybe it's just me, but some of Franson and Gardiner's successful contributions in the playoffs came on taking advantage of a Boston team, which to me was starting to look worn-out.  I'm almost thinking it was an easier time for them to play then say at the beginning of the season.  I wouldn't be disappointed if Franson was traded.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Has Franson's worth been sorted? What would constitute 'more' than he's worth?

Well, that's probably a little difficult since you'll be hard-pressed to get everybody here to agree what kind of defenceman Franson is. But going through the list of cap hits for defencemen this upcoming season, if I was Franson's agent I would pick out Jack Johnson, Alex Goligoski, and Slava Voynov's as comparables. All offensive, top-4, 40 point-ish defencemen who aren't exactly perfect defensively. All 3 have long-term contracts worth between $4.1-4.6mil that they signed as RFAs.

If I was the Leafs and wanted a short-term deal I would look at Subban, Del Zotto, and Leddy. All on 2-year contracts ranging from $2.55mil-$2.85mil. Although I think Sather got great value on that Del Zotto contract and in my opinion Subban's contract is artificially lowered because he signed for very cheap in his first year which was a lockout-shortened season that he missed the first two weeks of. He'll earn $3.75mil this coming season.

So if I had to put a value on it, I'd say short-term he's worth about $3mil and on a long-term deal he's worth about $4mil. Usually the gap between a bridge and long-term deal would be larger than that, but I think because of his age there won't be much of a difference.

 

[Bullfrog]

I want to see him signed. I like Liles quite a bit, but I'd prefer Franson at this point. I tend to be optimistic about our players, but I think what we saw last year is what we get. Meaning, I think he's the real deal now.

 

[Kin]

I think right now it depends on how the team feels about Rielly. If they think he's got a legit chance at making the club this year I like Franson's potential trade value for maybe adding some high level young assets or draft picks which I think the team really needs. If they're down on Rielly then, yeah, having another offensive defenseman makes more sense.

 

[Tigger]

That seems pretty reasonable Carlton. I wonder if the sticking point is actually term and not AAV?

 

[hockeyfan1]

Franson should stay.  He's big enough on the defense and can score and move the puck well.  May be expensive too sign but that will depend on Nonis' point of view if he deems Franson either expendable or worthy of a stay.

Considering the fact that the Leafs don't seem to be too keen on Liles, and adding to the fact that (perhaps) none of the draft choices (defencemen) will make the team in earnest (enough to say, replace a Franson), it's best, for 'insurance' purposes that the Leafs keep Franson.

Subban or Del Zoto may come at a cheaper price but how well will they fit in on the Leafs roster, particularly Subban, he of the outgoing on-ice personality, a 'rah-rah' guy they could use?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That seems pretty reasonable Carlton. I wonder if the sticking point is actually term and not AAV?

I think you could understand why Franson would want a long-term contract at this point. He's 26 years old and has already signed 2 contracts past his ELC. Usually guys his age aren't talking about bridge contracts.

But going back to the point I brought up before, even if the Leafs would be fine agreeing to a 2-year deal worth $6mil or a 4-year deal worth $16mil, they can't sign a contract without leaving enough cap space to sign Kadri too. And of course the same could be said the other way about Kadri. It's entirely possible that both agents have contracts essentially agreed to but Nonis can't sign them without going over the cap.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think right now it depends on how the team feels about Rielly. If they think he's got a legit chance at making the club this year I like Franson's potential trade value for maybe adding some high level young assets or draft picks which I think the team really needs. If they're down on Rielly then, yeah, having another offensive defenseman makes more sense.

From what people in the organization have said about Rielly, I think it seems very likely that he'll be sent back to the WHL. I don't remember exactly who it was, but someone in the management was talking about how even if Rielly goes back to the WHL and absolutely dominates it will still benefit him as he'll know what it's like to dominate a league. And with Gunnarsson, Gardiner, Liles, Fraser, and Ranger all ahead of him on the left-side depth chart, he'll have to be lights out to earn a spot.

As for trading Franson, while I think he's going to be a solid defenceman in this league for a long time if we can find a trade that makes this team better of course go for it. I said that we don't have any defencemen in the system like Franson, but defence is still our position of strength prospects-wise. If we can make a hockey trade like the Schenn-JVR deal then absolutely go looking. But given Franson's potential hold-out situation and the fact that we won't be able to take any salary back in the deal it will likely be a trade that we lose.

 

[Tigger]

But going back to the point I brought up before, even if the Leafs would be fine agreeing to a 2-year deal worth $6mil or a 4-year deal worth $16mil, they can't sign a contract without leaving enough cap space to sign Kadri too. And of course the same could be said the other way about Kadri. It's entirely possible that both agents have contracts essentially agreed to but Nonis can't sign them without going over the cap.

Well yeah, the cap is the crunch but that shouldn't stop Nonis from signing reasonable contracts if he knows what he's doing ( I think he does ) and has a plan. Supposedly Loiselle knows what he's doing too, I think something will give here.

 

[pmrules]

That seems pretty reasonable Carlton. I wonder if the sticking point is actually term and not AAV?

I think you could understand why Franson would want a long-term contract at this point. He's 26 years old and has already signed 2 contracts past his ELC. Usually guys his age aren't talking about bridge contracts.

But going back to the point I brought up before, even if the Leafs would be fine agreeing to a 2-year deal worth $6mil or a 4-year deal worth $16mil, they can't sign a contract without leaving enough cap space to sign Kadri too. And of course the same could be said the other way about Kadri. It's entirely possible that both agents have contracts essentially agreed to but Nonis can't sign them without going over the cap.

Nonis is allowed to go over the cap in the offseason, so I don't think they have contracts and are just waiting for a shoe to drop.

 

[Kin]

From what people in the organization have said about Rielly, I think it seems very likely that he'll be sent back to the WHL. I don't remember exactly who it was, but someone in the management was talking about how even if Rielly goes back to the WHL and absolutely dominates it will still benefit him as he'll know what it's like to dominate a league. And with Gunnarsson, Gardiner, Liles, Fraser, and Ranger all ahead of him on the left-side depth chart, he'll have to be lights out to earn a spot.

I think I've gone into both of those things at length elsewhere, both the idea that the team is going to be religious about playing guys on their right sides and the fairly questionable track records teams have of keeping top 5 picked defensemen in junior for two years, but in the broad strokes I agree. They'll have to think that Rielly will have to be seen as a guy who can more or less step into the role Franson played last year in order to go down that role.

As for trading Franson, while I think he's going to be a solid defenceman in this league for a long time if we can find a trade that makes this team better of course go for it. I said that we don't have any defencemen in the system like Franson, but defence is still our position of strength prospects-wise. If we can make a hockey trade like the Schenn-JVR deal then absolutely go looking. But given Franson's potential hold-out situation and the fact that we won't be able to take any salary back in the deal it will likely be a trade that we lose.

I don't think that's necessarily the case or, at least, if that's the case it'll be a big reflection on how Franson's actually seen around the league. If a player is highly sought after teams don't really hesitate in offering valuable picks/prospects for him. See: the guy the Leafs will probably have to pay 8.5 million this season.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

I honestly don't understand the comparison to Subban. Subban plays #1-2 minutes, hits and is a pp beast.

Subban just had his first real "breakout" season and won the Norris at 24 having just signed a contract. Franson just had his first breakout season at 26 in a contract year mainly playing 3rd pairing minutes with a fair amount of PP time. I mean outside of them both being "offensive defence men" they don't really share any similarities whatsoever. Their pay structure should reflect that.

.56 PPG Subban
.41 PPG Franson

I just don't see it. I'd give him a Subban type deal and pay him full value (or trade him) when his next contract comes due. For all the talk about his size, he hardly uses it.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That seems pretty reasonable Carlton. I wonder if the sticking point is actually term and not AAV?

I think you could understand why Franson would want a long-term contract at this point. He's 26 years old and has already signed 2 contracts past his ELC. Usually guys his age aren't talking about bridge contracts.

But going back to the point I brought up before, even if the Leafs would be fine agreeing to a 2-year deal worth $6mil or a 4-year deal worth $16mil, they can't sign a contract without leaving enough cap space to sign Kadri too. And of course the same could be said the other way about Kadri. It's entirely possible that both agents have contracts essentially agreed to but Nonis can't sign them without going over the cap.

Nonis is allowed to go over the cap in the offseason, so I don't think they have contracts and are just waiting for a shoe to drop.

Sure, but teams usually only go over the cap in the summer when they have a plan to get under once the season starts. Usually that involves putting a player that they know is injured on LTIR or sending a big contract to the minors. Nonis doesn't really have any options to get under the cap since option 2 isn't allowed anymore.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't think that's necessarily the case or, at least, if that's the case it'll be a big reflection on how Franson's actually seen around the league. If a player is highly sought after teams don't really hesitate in offering valuable picks/prospects for him. See: the guy the Leafs will probably have to pay 8.5 million this season.

I was mostly referred to the fact that since the Leafs won't be able to take on any salary they likely won't get a player of Franson's caliber in return. So a team might offer them a nice looking draft pick or something, but it won't help the team now.

 

[Kin]

I was mostly referred to the fact that since the Leafs won't be able to take on any salary they likely won't get a player of Franson's caliber in return. So a team might offer them a nice looking draft pick or something, but it won't help the team now.

Gotcha. Although with that said the Leafs could probably take some salary back. Not much, no, but if the deal was larger than just Franson for X they could get something for now and something for later.

Anyways, I'd prefer the deal be more about futures anyway.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I honestly don't understand the comparison to Subban. Subban plays #1-2 minutes, hits and is a pp beast.

Subban just had his first real "breakout" season and won the Norris at 24 having just signed a contract. Franson just had his first breakout season at 26 in a contract year mainly playing 3rd pairing minutes with a fair amount of PP time. I mean outside of them both being "offensive defence men" they don't really share any similarities whatsoever. Their pay structure should reflect that.

.56 PPG Subban
.41 PPG Franson

I just don't see it. I'd give him a Subban type deal and pay him full value (or trade him) when his next contract comes due. For all the talk about his size, he hardly uses it.

Comparing Franson to the 2012-2013 Norris-winning P.K. Subban isn't right of course. But in the two seasons prior to signing his bridge Subban scored 74 points in 158 games (.47 ppg). In Franson's past two seasons he scored 50 points in 102 games (.49 ppg). So while Subban is a little more proven in a sense because of a higher games played, you can definitely compare the two offensively speaking at least when looking at their track record.

edit: On a bit of an aside here, while Subban's contract definitely looks great right now he and his agent are going to be laughing all the way to the bank when they ask for $7-8mil next summer.

 

[Jalili]

I don't think that's necessarily the case or, at least, if that's the case it'll be a big reflection on how Franson's actually seen around the league. If a player is highly sought after teams don't really hesitate in offering valuable picks/prospects for him. See: the guy the Leafs will probably have to pay 8.5 million this season.

I was mostly referred to the fact that since the Leafs won't be able to take on any salary they likely won't get a player of Franson's caliber in return. So a team might offer them a nice looking draft pick or something, but it won't help the team now.

I'm not sure how nice that draft pick would even be, considering teams are probably hesitant to trade their 1sts before the season starts. Maybe there's a team that's real confident that they're  a top 5 team, and are willing to trade one, but then the problem is that a pick in the late 20s doesn't really do much for us.

 

[Kin]

I'm not sure how nice that draft pick would even be, considering teams are probably hesitant to trade their 1sts before the season starts. Maybe there's a team that's real confident that they're  a top 5 team, and are willing to trade one, but then the problem is that a pick in the late 20s doesn't really do much for us.

Well, except that it's an asset that can be used multiple ways going forward. And teams aren't always right about where they are before a season begins. Also, that's why deals like that don't tend to be one for ones but involve prospects as well. If all Franson is worth is a late round first then people are overestimating his value to a team.

 

[Jalili]

I'm not sure how nice that draft pick would even be, considering teams are probably hesitant to trade their 1sts before the season starts. Maybe there's a team that's real confident that they're  a top 5 team, and are willing to trade one, but then the problem is that a pick in the late 20s doesn't really do much for us.

Well, except that it's an asset that can be used multiple ways going forward. And teams aren't always right about where they are before a season begins. Also, that's why deals like that don't tend to be one for ones but involve prospects as well. If all Franson is worth is a late round first then people are overestimating his value to a team.

Yeah, it would probably be part of a bundle that includes 1 or 2 decent, but decidedly non-elite prospects in addition to the pick.

That still doesn't do that much for us. Basically quantity for quality.

 

[Redleaf]

I'm not sure how nice that draft pick would even be, considering teams are probably hesitant to trade their 1sts before the season starts. Maybe there's a team that's real confident that they're  a top 5 team, and are willing to trade one, but then the problem is that a pick in the late 20s doesn't really do much for us.

Well, except that it's an asset that can be used multiple ways going forward. And teams aren't always right about where they are before a season begins. Also, that's why deals like that don't tend to be one for ones but involve prospects as well. If all Franson is worth is a late round first then people are overestimating his value to a team.

Yeah, it would probably be part of a bundle that includes 1 or 2 decent, but decidedly non-elite prospects in addition to the pick.

That still doesn't do that much for us. Basically quantity for quality.

Pass. I'd keep Franson, unless the offer was off the charts for a player of his calibre. I think he's a big part of the Leafs future moving forward.