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Goaltending conundrum

Sarge said:
Assuming I want him (and I'm not sure I do at the moment.)

Colborne or McKegg + our 2nd round pick + a salary dump (ie. Komi, Connolly, Army.) I don't know, am I even close? Like I said, I'm lost.

I'd imagine there would be better offers than that...but I've been off base before.
 
Omallley said:
If you believe Canuck fans on his worth, it is pretty low right now. I don't think Luongo's done himself any favours with his play, and that contract is a brutal commitment. From Vancouver's perspective, gaining cap space along (long term at least) is quite valuable.

Sure, but, as we both know and have seen time and time again, fans tend to not have the best grasp of trade values and they also tend to be much more emotional than management (or, at least, they maintain those emotions for longer). I just can't see Vancouver moving Luongo with getting a substantial return. They're in a tough spot because of his contract and his NTC, and, at the end of the day, they may just be forced into moving Schneider instead (though, that could also be an interesting situation - if they don't move him and some team signs him to a 1 year offer sheet, should Vancouver match, they won't be allowed to trade him this season and he'll become a UFA on July 1st).
 
Omallley said:
Sarge said:
Assuming I want him (and I'm not sure I do at the moment.)

Colborne or McKegg + our 2nd round pick + a salary dump (ie. Komi, Connolly, Army.) I don't know, am I even close? Like I said, I'm lost.

I'd imagine there would be better offers than that...but I've been off base before.

His NTC comes in to play as well.  There may be better offers, but they might be from teams that he won't go to.  For that matter we are all assuming that he would come to the Leafs, which he might not.  I would have to go through the teams that really need a #1 goalie and see what they could offer up.  I wonder if teams like the Devils or Red Wings would get in to the bidding.
 
Omallley said:
Sarge said:
Assuming I want him (and I'm not sure I do at the moment.)

Colborne or McKegg + our 2nd round pick + a salary dump (ie. Komi, Connolly, Army.) I don't know, am I even close? Like I said, I'm lost.

I'd imagine there would be better offers than that...but I've been off base before.

I would think VAN would want a goalie back.  Scrivens?
 
bustaheims said:
Omallley said:
If you believe Canuck fans on his worth, it is pretty low right now. I don't think Luongo's done himself any favours with his play, and that contract is a brutal commitment. From Vancouver's perspective, gaining cap space along (long term at least) is quite valuable.

Sure, but, as we both know and have seen time and time again, fans tend to not have the best grasp of trade values and they also tend to be much more emotional than management (or, at least, they maintain those emotions for longer). I just can't see Vancouver moving Luongo with getting a substantial return. They're in a tough spot because of his contract and his NTC, and, at the end of the day, they may just be forced into moving Schneider instead (though, that could also be an interesting situation - if they don't move him and some team signs him to a 1 year offer sheet, should Vancouver match, they won't be allowed to trade him this season and he'll become a UFA on July 1st).

So let Schneider reach RFA which I have no doubt will happen and sign him to a 2-year $15 mil contract. 

*runs*
 
Nik? said:
Right now Luongo's value is low because he's got the crazy contract, because there's not a world of difference between him and Schneider and because Canucks fans have decided to give him the Sedins, Kesler's and the rest of the forwards share of the blame. I don't think you can fairly look back over the last couple of years and say the reason the Canucks have come up short is Luongo.

I wouldn't say that.  Schneider's stats this past season were far better than Luongo's (albeit in fewer games)

Luongo 55 GP 2.41 .919
Schneider 33GP 1.92 .937
 
Corn Flake said:
So let Schneider reach RFA which I have no doubt will happen and sign him to a 2-year $15 mil contract. 

*runs*

No way Vancouver matches that and it costs the team that does a bundle in draft picks (two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd). So, no. A 1 year, ~$3.5M type deal might entice Schneider to sign and makes things tough for Vancouver - the compensation would likely be a 2nd round pick (depending on where the final numbers fall - could be a 1st and a 3rd - but, the offer can be massaged to fit just under whatever the threshold will be, and it's ~$3.13M right now). The compensation isn't good enough for them to walkaway so easily, but the cap hit makes things uncomfortable. If they match, they can't trade him for the entirety of the 1 year contract (can't trade players that were retained by a matched offer sheet for a full year after it's matched) and he'll be 27 before July 1st, 2013, and, barring any drastic changes to the way UFA eligibility is calculated . . . if the situation isn't dealt with shortly after the draft, things could get very interesting there.
 
Sarge said:
I really like the offer sheet idea - Really give Vancouver something to witch about.  8)

It's not a road I see Burke taking, but, it wouldn't shock me if someone tried it. Signed offer sheets are rare, but, this is sort of a unique situation where something pretty much has to happen with the goaltending situation in Vancouver, and where a 1 year offer sheet really forces their hand. Now, the smart move for Vancouver (if the situation isn't settled) would be to take Schneider to arbitration, removing the threat of an offer sheet, but, not the risk of a 1 year deal (since it would make him a UFA for 2013, I assume Schneider would opt for a 1 year deal in this scenario). They'd still be able to trade him, though, I would imagine Cory Schneider the impending UFA would have less trade value than Cory Schneider the RFA my team has had contract discussions with and have already agreed to a long term deal with.
 
Based on the scenarios I've laid out, my guess is Vancouver's decision RE: Luongo will be heavily dependant on whether or not they can get Schneider signed to a multi-season deal.
 
Omallley said:
Sarge said:
Man, I'm just so completely lost on Luongo. I have no idea if I like the player or contract, nor do I have the slightest clue what Vancouver's demands might be.

If you believe Canuck fans on his worth, it is pretty low right now. I don't think Luongo's done himself any favours with his play, and that contract is a brutal commitment. From Vancouver's perspective, gaining cap space along (long term at least) is quite valuable.

For what it's worth, a Vancouver writer (I forget who) who was on the air with Jeff Blair not long ago felt Luongo's trade value would be roughly a second rounder.
 
Nik? said:
Zee said:
I wouldn't say that.

I would(and did!). I don't think Vancouver was a significantly different team in front of either goalie this series.

Goaltending didn't lose the series for Vancouver this is true, but you can't deny that Schneider's stats overall are better than Luongo, even in the playoffs.  He played real well and Canucks just couldn't score.
 
Zee said:
He played real well and Canucks just couldn't score.

But that's what I'm saying. There wasn't a world of difference between how either guy played and the reason that the team lost wasn't down to goaltending.
 
The basic point is, VAN's flameout puts all these scenarios -- with both goalies -- in play.  If they had swept LA behind Luongo, then the chatter would all be what to do with Schneider.  This is much more interesting.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
The basic point is, VAN's flameout puts all these scenarios -- with both goalies -- in play.  If they had swept LA behind Luongo, then the chatter would all be what to do with Schneider.  This is much more interesting.

Interesting, but I don't see a Vancouver goalie ending up in T.O.
 
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
The basic point is, VAN's flameout puts all these scenarios -- with both goalies -- in play.  If they had swept LA behind Luongo, then the chatter would all be what to do with Schneider.  This is much more interesting.

I don't think Vancouver even considers trading Schneider.  He's younger and already better than Luongo.  The Canucks couldn't score enough, but Luongo did give up 7 goals in 2 games.  That's not good enough for the playoffs.  Schneider gave up 4 goals in 3 games, so he gave his team a chance to win in each game.
 
I could easily see New Jersey making an offer for Luongo especially with Brodeur finishing his career and Schneider signing a deal in Vancouver and Toronto missing out on both. 

I could see Burke thinking that Jonas Hiller is the answer.
 

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