Leafs chances for making the playoffs this year...

[Zee]

Detroit, Ottawa, NJ, Carolina all lost.  Good stuff.
Sportclubstats.com has them up to 70%.  That's an amazing turn around.  Hopefully Detroit, N.J., Carolina continue to slide.

I don't buy anything sportsclubstats is selling.  All they do is randomly figure out how many points the Leafs would have if they put together a certain record.  Look at the Habs, they have 1 fewer loss than the Leafs and stand at 91% chance to make it.  So you're telling me 1 loss difference would take the Leafs from 70 to 90?  C'mon.

 

[Madferret]

It's threads like this that anger the hockey Gods...

 

[Jalili]

If the playoffs were to be held today, the Leafs would play Boston.  What would their chances be of beating the Bruins this time?  Better, worse than last?

How about Tampa Bay or Montreal?

What does anyone think?  Any preferences and why?

It would really depend on what kind of additions Boston can make at the trade deadline, and also how they finish their season.

They finished last season on a really terrible streak which may have helped Toronto's chances of beating them a bit. On the other hand, they lost their #2 D-man Seidenberg for this season and are a lot weaker without him.

I think Boston could be beaten in the first round but I'd much prefer Toronto play Tampa Bay or Montreal.

 

[93forever]

If the playoffs were to be held today, the Leafs would play Boston.  What would their chances be of beating the Bruins this time?  Better, worse than last?

How about Tampa Bay or Montreal?

What does anyone think?  Any preferences and why?

It would really depend on what kind of additions Boston can make at the trade deadline, and also how they finish their season.

They finished last season on a really terrible streak which may have helped Toronto's chances of beating them a bit. On the other hand, they lost their #2 D-man Seidenberg for this season and are a lot weaker without him.

I think Boston could be beaten in the first round but I'd much prefer Toronto play Tampa Bay or Montreal.

I see the Leafs as buyers as well so who they get will make an impact as well.

 

[nutman]

I don't see a move at the deadline, Bolland is the guy we bring in.

 

[losveratos]

I don't see a move at the deadline, Bolland is the guy we bring in.

Any chance you think you can trade and get an improvement now (or minor decrease now) and a better future, you do it. Obviously.

I hope our management mans the phones constantly leading up to the deadline. It's super important that we don't miss any opportunities.

 

[moon111]

Detroit, Ottawa, NJ, Carolina all lost.  Good stuff.
Sportclubstats.com has them up to 70%.  That's an amazing turn around.  Hopefully Detroit, N.J., Carolina continue to slide.

I don't buy anything sportsclubstats is selling.  All they do is randomly figure out how many points the Leafs would have if they put together a certain record.  Look at the Habs, they have 1 fewer loss than the Leafs and stand at 91% chance to make it.  So you're telling me 1 loss difference would take the Leafs from 70 to 90?  C'mon.

Yet year after year, they had the Leafs basicly out of the playoffs with fans still all wide-eyed and optimistic.  I also think Toronto's schedule is much more dangerous with more 4 point games then Montreal has, which would influence potential outcomes greatly.

 

[Zee]

Detroit, Ottawa, NJ, Carolina all lost.  Good stuff.
Sportclubstats.com has them up to 70%.  That's an amazing turn around.  Hopefully Detroit, N.J., Carolina continue to slide.

I don't buy anything sportsclubstats is selling.  All they do is randomly figure out how many points the Leafs would have if they put together a certain record.  Look at the Habs, they have 1 fewer loss than the Leafs and stand at 91% chance to make it.  So you're telling me 1 loss difference would take the Leafs from 70 to 90?  C'mon.

Yet year after year, they had the Leafs basicly out of the playoffs with fans still all wide-eyed and optimistic.  I also think Toronto's schedule is much more dangerous with more 4 point games then Montreal has, which would influence potential outcomes greatly.

What fans were optimistic with the Leafs the last few years?  That site changes percentages more often than I change underwear.  Remember the year of the 18 wheeler?  That site had the Leafs solidly in the playoffs for a long while, and then the truck went over the cliff.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Detroit, Ottawa, NJ, Carolina all lost.  Good stuff.
Sportclubstats.com has them up to 70%.  That's an amazing turn around.  Hopefully Detroit, N.J., Carolina continue to slide.

I don't buy anything sportsclubstats is selling.  All they do is randomly figure out how many points the Leafs would have if they put together a certain record.  Look at the Habs, they have 1 fewer loss than the Leafs and stand at 91% chance to make it.  So you're telling me 1 loss difference would take the Leafs from 70 to 90?  C'mon.

Yet year after year, they had the Leafs basicly out of the playoffs with fans still all wide-eyed and optimistic.  I also think Toronto's schedule is much more dangerous with more 4 point games then Montreal has, which would influence potential outcomes greatly.

What fans were optimistic with the Leafs the last few years?  That site changes percentages more often than I change underwear.  Remember the year of the 18 wheeler?  That site had the Leafs solidly in the playoffs for a long while, and then the truck went over the cliff.

It's almost like predictions aren't always right.

 

[Zee]

Detroit, Ottawa, NJ, Carolina all lost.  Good stuff.
Sportclubstats.com has them up to 70%.  That's an amazing turn around.  Hopefully Detroit, N.J., Carolina continue to slide.

I don't buy anything sportsclubstats is selling.  All they do is randomly figure out how many points the Leafs would have if they put together a certain record.  Look at the Habs, they have 1 fewer loss than the Leafs and stand at 91% chance to make it.  So you're telling me 1 loss difference would take the Leafs from 70 to 90?  C'mon.

Yet year after year, they had the Leafs basicly out of the playoffs with fans still all wide-eyed and optimistic.  I also think Toronto's schedule is much more dangerous with more 4 point games then Montreal has, which would influence potential outcomes greatly.

What fans were optimistic with the Leafs the last few years?  That site changes percentages more often than I change underwear.  Remember the year of the 18 wheeler?  That site had the Leafs solidly in the playoffs for a long while, and then the truck went over the cliff.

It's almost like predictions aren't always right.

Yeah but that site is particularly random.  It just looks that the Leafs have 22 games left, and then simulates a season where the Leafs go 22-0 (100% chance of making it)  21-1-0 (100% chance of making it) etc and etc down to 0-22 (0% chance of making it).  I don't believe they look at any other factors like home/away, quality of competition etc.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't buy anything sportsclubstats is selling.  All they do is randomly figure out how many points the Leafs would have if they put together a certain record.  Look at the Habs, they have 1 fewer loss than the Leafs and stand at 91% chance to make it.  So you're telling me 1 loss difference would take the Leafs from 70 to 90?  C'mon.

The Habs have a 7-point lead over Columbus but the Blue Jackets have a game in hand. The Habs hold the tie-breaker there though so even if Columbus won that game in hand they still have a 6-point cushion for the final wild card spot.

The Leafs also have a 7-point lead for the final wild card spot but Columbus has 2 games in hand on them and they also currently have Toronto beat in the tie-breaker. So say Columbus wins those 2 games in hand they'll only need 3 more points to pass the Leafs for the final spot if the tie-breaker doesn't change. With how close things are that 3 point difference is a pretty big deal.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah but that site is particularly random.  It just looks that the Leafs have 22 games left, and then simulates a season where the Leafs go 22-0 (100% chance of making it)  21-1-0 (100% chance of making it) etc and etc down to 0-22 (0% chance of making it).  I don't believe they look at any other factors like home/away, quality of competition etc.

Actually, they do. They run something like 10 million simulations, and the odds are based on those results.

EDIT: According to the site, they ran over 15 billion simulations . . .

 

[Zee]

Yeah but that site is particularly random.  It just looks that the Leafs have 22 games left, and then simulates a season where the Leafs go 22-0 (100% chance of making it)  21-1-0 (100% chance of making it) etc and etc down to 0-22 (0% chance of making it).  I don't believe they look at any other factors like home/away, quality of competition etc.

Actually, they do. They run something like 10 million simulations, and the odds are based on those results.

EDIT: According to the site, they ran over 15 billion simulations . . .

Simulations that are totally random based on team records.  From their site:

"The algorithm does not know about things like trades, injuries, and matchups. It does not know that a team has started believing in themselves."


So yeah, if you think random chance is as accurate as anything else, then I guess this site is accurate.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Yeah but that site is particularly random.  It just looks that the Leafs have 22 games left, and then simulates a season where the Leafs go 22-0 (100% chance of making it)  21-1-0 (100% chance of making it) etc and etc down to 0-22 (0% chance of making it).  I don't believe they look at any other factors like home/away, quality of competition etc.

Actually, they do. They run something like 10 million simulations, and the odds are based on those results.

EDIT: According to the site, they ran over 15 billion simulations . . .

Simulations that are totally random based on team records.  From their site:

"The algorithm does not know about things like trades, injuries, and matchups. It does not know that a team has started believing in themselves."


So yeah, if you think random chance is as accurate as anything else, then I guess this site is accurate.

It's not though, it's based on strength of schedule and goal differential basically.  Those things you quoted above are unknowns it can't really account for.

 

[bustaheims]

Simulations that are totally random based on team records.  From their site:

"The algorithm does not know about things like trades, injuries, and matchups. It does not know that a team has started believing in themselves."

So yeah, if you think random chance is as accurate as anything else, then I guess this site is accurate.

Also from the site:

The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.

Basically, the site takes into account anything that is quantifiable, and make educated guesses at outcomes based on that. It doesn't take into account things it has no way of determining the impact on the lineup, nor does it include things that are of questionable impact on results.

 

[Big Daddy]

The algorithm cannot determine momentum.  It doesnt know if you've won or lost the last five games.  Momentum is everything

 

[Zee]

Simulations that are totally random based on team records.  From their site:

"The algorithm does not know about things like trades, injuries, and matchups. It does not know that a team has started believing in themselves."

So yeah, if you think random chance is as accurate as anything else, then I guess this site is accurate.

Also from the site:

The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.

Basically, the site takes into account anything that is quantifiable, and make educated guesses at outcomes based on that. It doesn't take into account things it has no way of determining the impact on the lineup, nor does it include things that are of questionable impact on results.

Yeah, so it's like a video game simulation.  If Leafs playing a team below them, and they're at home then it'll give the win to the Leafs in all likelihood.  It's still not a great way of predicting anything.  There's no way that site would have seen the Leafs going 7-2-1 in their last 10.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

There's no way that site would have seen the Leafs going 7-2-1 in their last 10.

I don't see the issue.  It runs the simulation millions of times, so it's not going to necessarily conform to a winning streak or to a losing streak.  Ideally those will off-set one another over the long term.  A winning streak adjusts the % odds of making it accordingly.

 

[princedpw]

The algorithm cannot determine momentum.  It doesnt know if you've won or lost the last five games.  Momentum is everything

Actually, from what I've read about sports, momentum is often nothing.  The best known study, I believe, is from basketball.  They showed that in basketball, shooters don't actually get "hot" --- having made your last shot does not make it more likely you will make your next one.

 

[losveratos]

The algorithm cannot determine momentum.  It doesnt know if you've won or lost the last five games.  Momentum is everything

Actually, from what I've read about sports, momentum is often nothing.  The best known study, I believe, is from basketball.  They showed that in basketball, shooters don't actually get "hot" --- having made your last shot does not make it more likely you will make your next one.

While that's likely true in hockey too (getting a goal doesn't mean your next shot has a higher shot%) it has almost nothing to do with what I would call momentum in hockey. When a team keeps possession in the zone and starts to get more shots on net and the opposition starts to collapse in, it seems to carry to the next shift and the next after that for a while. If no goal comes after a while then it seems to settle a bit. But I would still call that momentum.