Leafs @ Sabres - Mar. 20th, 7:00pm - SNO, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

@

43-25-5, 91 points | 31-32-9, 71 points

Projected Lines

Hyman-Tavares-Marner Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen Moore-Petan-Brown Rielly-Ozhiganov Muzzin-Zaitsev Hainsey-Holl Sparks ​

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart Sobotka-Mittelstadt-Thompson Sheary-Rodrigues-Nylander Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo Bogosian-Ristolainen Dahlin-Montour Scandella-Nelson Hutton​

Scratches

Tyler Ennis Martin Marincin ​

Jason Pominville Scott Wilson Matt Hunwick ​

Game Notes

TOR
?Sparks (7-7-1, 3.24 GAA, .902 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
?The Leafs, as you may have heard, are 1-5 in their last 6 games. They will look to avoid 3 straight regulation losses, something they haven't done all season
?Without Marincin, the Leafs started Nashville's game with Rielly-Hainsey on the top pairing and Holl-Oz on the bottom, but those pairings changed later in the game

BUF
?Hutton (17-20-5, 2.88 GAA, .910 Sv%) will likely start for the Sabres
?While not officially eliminated yet, Buffalo's season is definitely over. Assuming they win all their games the most amount of points they could finish with would be 91, definitely not enough to crack the top-8
?Willie's brother, Alexander Nylander, was recently recalled by the Sabres. He has 2 assists in 4 games after a respectable 31 points in 49 AHL games

Injuries

?Jake Gardiner - Back - Injured Reserve ?Travis Dermott - Shoulder - Injured Reserve ?Frederik Gauthier - Foot - Day to day ?Martin Marincin - Illness - Questionable Wednesday​

?Jake McCabe - Upper Body - Injured Reserve​

Stream Options

https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams
​

 

[Zee]

Sabres with no pressure but to mess up the Leafs, Eichel will have 3 points minimum tonight.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Sabres with no pressure but to mess up the Leafs, Eichel will have 3 points minimum tonight.

It's the new Leafs! I'm sure they'll play a responsible game defensively to keep the score dow... *remembers Sparks is starting*... make it 4 points.

 

[ZBBM]

Sabres with no pressure but to mess up the Leafs, Eichel will have 3 points minimum tonight.

It's the new Leafs! I'm sure they'll play a responsible game defensively to keep the score dow... *remembers Sparks is starting*... make it 4 points.

I have to miss this one but I predict, you haterpeople, that Sparks throws a shutout.

 

[herman]

I didn't think he'd do it (because Ozhiganov is meh), but
Reilly-Oz
Muzzin-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Holl

gives each pair a mover and a stopper, although M-Z is nominal at moving.

Interesting how Zaitsev's best game came when the Leafs forwards broke out as a unit.

The lack of stretch play also nerfed our super fun scoring chance numbers in volume, but I think that'll pick back up as the forwards learn to earn their ice together and establish OZ cycles (and play a lesser defensive outfit than the Predators).

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I didn't think he'd do it (because Ozhiganov is meh), but
Reilly-Oz
Muzzin-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Holl

gives each pair a mover and a stopper, although M-Z is nominal at moving.

Interesting how Zaitsev's best game came when the Leafs forwards broke out as a unit.

The lack of stretch play also nerfed our super fun scoring chance numbers in volume, but I think that'll pick back up as the forwards learn to earn their ice together and establish OZ cycles (and play a lesser defensive outfit than the Predators).

The lack of the stretch nerfed the super fun scoring chances, but it created situations where the team was attacking a defense with a puck on their stick and with speed. I'd take that over the long bomb any day. The stretch pass has a place in the game. I just think it's more of a sneak attack play, not a team standard breakout strategy.

 

[ZBBM]

I didn't think he'd do it (because Ozhiganov is meh), but
Reilly-Oz
Muzzin-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Holl

gives each pair a mover and a stopper, although M-Z is nominal at moving.

Interesting how Zaitsev's best game came when the Leafs forwards broke out as a unit.

The lack of stretch play also nerfed our super fun scoring chance numbers in volume, but I think that'll pick back up as the forwards learn to earn their ice together and establish OZ cycles (and play a lesser defensive outfit than the Predators).

Your optimism is refreshing.  And we can only hope Zaitsev will now become the defensemen we all knew he could be when we first didn't know anything about him.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

One other thought on the Powerplay. You heard it last night, the teams know exactly what the Leafs are doing every time they come up the ice. They've known it for a while. They actually had some success when the original puck carrier carried it into the zone with speed, instead of the drop pass that puts 3-4 players standing at the blueline, which essentially leads to a 1 on 4, forcing the short chip back to the point to try and set up. I've never been a fan of passes above the face off circles, especially when breaking into the zone. I think they lead to goals the other way. Their goal should be to set up shop in the corner and then work it back. I'm not a dump in fan with this talent, but, man, is it time to start ringing the puck around the boards?

Last night I also noticed they were stationary on the powerplay again. A stationary powerplay is succeptable to pressure which causes forced passes and lost pucks.

 

[herman]

The lack of the stretch nerfed the super fun scoring chances, but it created situations where the team was attacking a defense with a puck on their stick and with speed. I'd take that over the long bomb any day. The stretch pass has a place in the game. I just think it's more of a sneak attack play, not a team standard breakout strategy.

Yeah, I'm down with that, at least with this iteration of the backend. The theory behind using the stretch pass is sound, but I also really like having both aerial and running options, a la football, to prevent opponents from locking into easy defense.

Your optimism is refreshing.  And we can only hope Zaitsev will now become the defensemen we all knew he could be when we first didn't know anything about him.

I still see a lot of good tools in Zaitsev's arsenal, too much term on his contract with zero real upward development curve notwithstanding. Dude can really skate, he's fearless, surprisingly strong for his size, and is an offensive defenseman who actually takes pride in playing defense. I think the way the Leafs tend to play (namely the way our young forwards tend to care more about scoring) is a disservice to Zaitsev as the default stretch pass takes away both his skating ability and forces him into giving away the puck.

He'd look really good on a team that structures to play low-event like the Islanders, and I hope Lou takes a flyer on him, perhaps for an AHL tweener forward like Josh Ho-Sang. 

 

[herman]

One other thought on the Powerplay. You heard it last night, the teams know exactly what the Leafs are doing every time they come up the ice. They've known it for a while. They actually had some success when the original puck carrier carried it into the zone with speed, instead of the drop pass that puts 3-4 players standing at the blueline, which essentially leads to a 1 on 4, forcing the short chip back to the point to try and set up. I've never been a fan of passes above the face off circles, especially when breaking into the zone. I think they lead to goals the other way. Their goal should be to set up shop in the corner and then work it back. I'm not a dump in fan with this talent, but, man, is it time to start ringing the puck around the boards?

Last night I also noticed they were stationary on the powerplay again. A stationary powerplay is succeptable to pressure which causes forced passes and lost pucks.

Yeah, very stationary when entering and when actually set up, but also overly willing to skate the puck into 1v3+ coverage instead of laying it into the corner. A diagonal shoot-in or a ringer around the boards with the weak-side winger coming in with pace might do the trick as the PKs are bottling at the carrier side. If carrying, I'd prefer to see some diagonal entries as well, as the straight North-South is a much shorter track to work with and diagonals open up reversals to players streaking in the other way.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1108396806789050370

Did no one take their flu shots this year?

 

[herman]

Did no one take their flu shots this year?

Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey did.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

One other thought on the Powerplay. You heard it last night, the teams know exactly what the Leafs are doing every time they come up the ice. They've known it for a while. They actually had some success when the original puck carrier carried it into the zone with speed, instead of the drop pass that puts 3-4 players standing at the blueline, which essentially leads to a 1 on 4, forcing the short chip back to the point to try and set up. I've never been a fan of passes above the face off circles, especially when breaking into the zone. I think they lead to goals the other way. Their goal should be to set up shop in the corner and then work it back. I'm not a dump in fan with this talent, but, man, is it time to start ringing the puck around the boards?

Last night I also noticed they were stationary on the powerplay again. A stationary powerplay is succeptable to pressure which causes forced passes and lost pucks.

Yeah, very stationary when entering and when actually set up, but also overly willing to skate the puck into 1v3+ coverage instead of laying it into the corner. A diagonal shoot-in or a ringer around the boards with the weak-side winger coming in with pace might do the trick as the PKs are bottling at the carrier side. If carrying, I'd prefer to see some diagonal entries as well, as the straight North-South is a much shorter track to work with and diagonals open up reversals to players streaking in the other way.

To me, there biggest problem is their zone entry on the PP. It has been horrendous since the start of the season. Once they get set up, they're usually fine(except for when they set up and don't move their feet).

Which brings me to another point. That offensive zone face off on the PP is useless if they don't start winning some of those faceoffs. Lose that draw and the puck is down the ice, and then we get to watch the defense swing wide, the drop back to marner, the carry to the blueline with the lateral pass on entry. That leads to the player with no speed carrying the puck to the circles along the boards and trying to lay it back to the defense or whichever player is supporting......And out it goes again.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That offensive zone face off on the PP is useless if they don't start winning some of those faceoffs.

For what it's worth, Tavares is 61.8% (131-81) on PP face-offs this season, and he's taken 212 of the teams 345 PP face-offs. He takes all the face-offs on the top pairing. Nylander and Marleau share the face-off duties on the 2nd unit: Nylander's 19-16 and Marleau is 18-22. So both are hovering around 50% but like I said Tavares takes the vast majority so as long as he's around 60% I'm not sure that's something we can criticize the PP about.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Did no one take their flu shots this year?

Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey did.

Dan Girardi's out in Tampa indefinitely and the Islanders will be without Filppula for the next 4 weeks. But our old and crappy players are apparently indestructible. Not fair.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Did no one take their flu shots this year?

Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey did.

Nah, their RGP is off the charts.

 

[lc9]

Hard to see them winning tonight. 

 

[Chris]

Hard to see them winning tonight.

Sabres have been really bad for the past month. Leafs should be able to beat them, even having played last night. Might
not be easy or pretty though.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

That offensive zone face off on the PP is useless if they don't start winning some of those faceoffs.

For what it's worth, Tavares is 61.8% (131-81) on PP face-offs this season, and he's taken 212 of the teams 345 PP face-offs. He takes all the face-offs on the top pairing. Nylander and Marleau share the face-off duties on the 2nd unit: Nylander's 19-16 and Marleau is 18-22. So both are hovering around 50% but like I said Tavares takes the vast majority so as long as he's around 60% I'm not sure that's something we can criticize the PP about.

You and your fancy stats! Dammit!

 

[L K]

Just posting from Buffalo to remind everyone that this is not a real playoff team and the Sabres are going to show the Leafs what realynolayiff hockey looks like