Leafs @ Sharks - Nov. 15th, 10:30pm - SNO, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

@

12-6-0, 24 points | 10-6-3, 23 points

Projected Lines

Hyman-Tavares-Marner Marleau-Kadri-Kapanen Johnsson-Lindholm-Brown Ennis-Gauthier-Leivo Rielly-Hainsey Gardiner-Zaitsev Dermott-Ozhiganov Andersen ​

Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi Hertl-Couture-Meier Sorensen-Thornton-Labanc Goodrow-Suomela-Karlsson Ryan-Burns Vlasic-Braun Dillon-Karlsson Jones​

Scratches

Trevor Moore Martin Marincin Justin Holl ​

Rourke Chartier Radim Simek Tim Heed ​

Game Notes

TOR
?Andersen (10-5-0, 2.02 GAA, .934 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
?Freddy the Goat watch: Gauthier's CF has gone from 58.44% to 50.68% in a span of just 4 games. His "dominant" season is crumbling before our eyes. Will going up against one of the best possession teams in the league put him below 50% on the season?

SJ
?Jones (9-4-1, 2.79 GAA, .898 Sv%) will likely start for the Sharks
?Just as everybody predicted Erik Karlsson is absolutely torching the league as a member of the San Jose Sharks, he has a total of *checks notes*... 0 goals and 8 points in 19 games. Huh.
?Karlsson is rocking a 60% CF and by a number of accounts has looked electric, just a matter of time before the points start. He also leads the team in ice-time
?The Sharks as a whole currently have a 57.5% CF, which puts them 2nd in the league there. Like the other two teams that have been dominating possession this season (Vegas and Carolina) their finishing and goaltending talents haven't matched that yet. Those 3 teams rank top-3 in possession but bottom-3 in PDO. Weird little trend

Injuries

?Auston Matthews - Shoulder - Injured Reserve​

?Tomas Hertl - Lower Body - Questionable Thursday​

Stream Options

https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams
​

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Apparently some of you actually watch these west coast games and want a GDT for them? Weird, but I'll oblige I guess. Will add some game notes for San Jose in a bit.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

They've got a karlsson too?

 

[WAYNEINIONA]

Apparently some of you actually watch these west coast games and want a GDT for them? Weird, but I'll oblige I guess. Will add some game notes for San Jose in a bit.

Self employed and semi retired. I watch them all.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

?Freddy the Goat watch: Gauthier's CF has gone from 58.44% to 50.68% in a span of just 4 games. His "dominant" season is crumbling before our eyes. Will going up against one of the best possession teams in the league put him below 50% on the season?

cc herman

 

[herman]

The Sharks as a whole currently have a 57.5% CF, which puts them 2nd in the league there. Like the other two teams that have been dominating possession this season (Vegas and Carolina) their finishing and goaltending talents haven't matched that yet. Those 3 teams rank top-3 in possession but bottom-3 in PDO. Weird little trend

These three teams are in for quantity vs quality shots (Sharks are the highest in shot quality of the three).

 

[herman]

?Freddy the Goat watch: Gauthier's CF has gone from 58.44% to 50.68% in a span of just 4 games. His "dominant" season is crumbling before our eyes. Will going up against one of the best possession teams in the league put him below 50% on the season?

cc herman

Yeah pretty sure the Gauthier group is going to be on the receiving end of a lot of shots, but probably from the points.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

These three teams are in for quantity vs quality shots (Sharks are the highest in shot quality of the three).

<chart>

Yeah they're obviously getting a ton of far-away shots from Burns and Karlsson but that still looks deadly from the slot. San Jose, Carolina, and Vegas are all top-3 in SCF%, and top-6 in HDCF% as well (per NST). So it's not as if they're just trying to "game" corsi so to speak.

 

[herman]

These three teams are in for quantity vs quality shots (Sharks are the highest in shot quality of the three).

<chart>

Yeah they're obviously getting a ton of far-away shots from Burns and Karlsson but that still looks deadly from the slot. San Jose, Carolina, and Vegas are all top-3 in SCF%, and top-6 in HDCF% as well (per NST). So it's not as if they're just trying to "game" corsi so to speak.

SCF and HDCF numbers are always a bit choppy when I look at them; I think they're valuable in showing that those players are getting into the Danger Zone frequently, but how those shots are being set up will be more indicative of the success rate. Unfortunately, that data is not publicly available.

Having not watched the Sharks this season, their heat map looks like a lot of Burns/Karlsson shots from a distance turning into rebound 'flurry' chances, which results in the higher attempt numbers and might also explain the lacklustre results.

I'm having a lot of 'how to measure shot quality' thoughts this season.

 

[Highlander]

?Freddy the Goat watch: Gauthier's CF has gone from 58.44% to 50.68% in a span of just 4 games. His "dominant" season is crumbling before our eyes. Will going up against one of the best possession teams in the league put him below 50% on the season?

cc herman

Yeah pretty sure the Gauthier group is going to be on the receiving end of a lot of shots, but probably from the points.

time to stick a prod in the Goat, a little electricity may help his motor

 

[ZBBM]

Apparently some of you actually watch these west coast games and want a GDT for them? Weird, but I'll oblige I guess. Will add some game notes for San Jose in a bit.

Wimps.  Arn* will be here watching, the least you can do is stay up too.

* and WN29

 

[cujo4ever]

GO LEAFS GO!

 

[Bill_Berg]

I stayed up for the Kings game, but I'm not confident I'll make it through the this one. Did just chug a red bull though.

 

[herman]

What?s Goodrow thinking?

 

[Bullfrog]

What an idiotic penalty.

And a lucky bounce for Tavares!

 

[herman]

Lol

Ennis? missed tip was a better scoring chance than the one that went in.

 

[ZBBM]

Tavares makes them pay!

 

[ZBBM]

What?s Goodrow thinking?

Revenge for Kadri ripping out part of Jumbo's beard last year.  Idiot, and it cost them.

 

[Bullfrog]

Nice pressure by the 4th line there.

 

[herman]

Good gravy Gauthier?s group with an excellent first shift.