Lecavalier Bought Out

[KoHo]

But the Leafs would still have that. Adding Lecavalier wouldn't make Kessel or Phaneuf any less the main pieces of the team. Kessel would still be a better player than he is. Adding Lecavalier, even if he centers the first line, wouldn't make him the centerpiece of the team any more than Bozak centering the first line made him the centerpiece of the team.

In that case we're back to square one with a 1st line centre who doesn't actually have the capabilities to suit the position. The Leafs should be looking for a real 1st line centre, or at least a player with a potential to be one (Stastny). If Lecavalier commands a 3 or 4 year deal and started declining in his early 30's, what's he going to be like at 36 or 37?

Nobody is asking him to be "the guy". Just be better than Bozak.

Well that's a pretty low bar to set, don't ya think? Lots of players are better than Bozak. Lars Eller is better than Bozak. Derek Roy is better than Bozak. Doesn't make them 1st line centres.

What I'm getting at here, with you and with Nik, is that the Leafs should be looking to upgrade and bring in a bona-fide #1 centre. We've been down the path of shoehorning a player that doesn't fit the position before, and I'd like to not continue that.

Well, that's a given. You always want to upgrade at every position, if its possible. A "1st line centre" by your inflexible definition, may simply not be available. That doesn't mean you do nothing. If the Leafs don't bring Bozak back, they have to replace him.

Yes, but you don't have to replace him by signing an already declining player to a 3 or 4 year contract. There's better options than Lecavalier. The Leafs aren't so desperate for a centre that they MUST make a move and grab Vinny.

 

[KoHo]

In that case we're back to square one with a 1st line centre who doesn't actually have the capabilities to suit the position. The Leafs should be looking for a real 1st line centre, or at least a player with a potential to be one (Stastny). If Lecavalier commands a 3 or 4 year deal and started declining in his early 30's, what's he going to be like at 36 or 37?

The rate that he's been able to produce over the last few years is a fairly acceptable rate for a #1 center. He finished last year tied for 29th among players listed at the position despite playing in only 39 games. He's responsible defensively, wins faceoffs, he's been far more productive than Stastny has over the last 3 years...so he absolutely has the capability you're talking about. Likewise his PPG last year(.82) was basically exactly the same as his career PPG(.84) so there really isn't evidence of the decline you've now repeatedly mentioned

Considering the asset cost required to add Stastny(probably considerable) compared to Lecavalier(none) it seems pretty straightforward.

Lecavalier's not scoring 100, or 90, or even 70 points anymore like he once was. There's considerable evidence for decline, he's not who he was in his prime, and stating otherwise is incorrect. Lecavalier's PPG in his age 25-28 seasons was 1.07. His PPG is in three most recent seasons (age 30-33) was .81, quite a large difference. There's your decline that I've repeatedly mentioned, which apparently there's no evidence of.

 

[Frank E]

Yes, but you don't have to replace him by signing an already declining player to a 3 or 4 year contract. There's better options than Lecavalier. The Leafs aren't so desperate for a centre that they MUST make a move and grab Vinny.

Who?

 

[Corn Flake]

Yes, but you don't have to replace him by signing an already declining player to a 3 or 4 year contract. There's better options than Lecavalier. The Leafs aren't so desperate for a centre that they MUST make a move and grab Vinny.

Who?

My question exactly. 

We've been waiting since Sundin left for a 1st line centre to come available.. so Vinny is out there and WHO is better that is available?

 

[bustaheims]

Yes, but you don't have to replace him by signing an already declining player to a 3 or 4 year contract. There's better options than Lecavalier. The Leafs aren't so desperate for a centre that they MUST make a move and grab Vinny.

Who?

My question exactly. 

We've been waiting since Sundin left for a 1st line centre to come available.. so Vinny is out there and WHO is better that is available?

Especially when acquisition cost is factored in. Who is available that's better and whose acquisition would make the team better than Lecavalier at no talent cost?

 

[Kin]

Lecavalier's not scoring 100, or 90, or even 70 points anymore like he once was. There's considerable evidence for decline, he's not who he was in his prime, and stating otherwise is incorrect. Lecavalier's PPG in his age 25-28 seasons was 1.07. His PPG is in three most recent seasons (age 30-33) was .81, quite a large difference. There's your decline that I've repeatedly mentioned, which apparently there's no evidence of.

Except Lecavalier was never a regular 100 or 90 point scorer. He's only ever been above a PPG twice in his entire career and if Lecavalier is on the decline because he's not producing at the exact same rate that he did in two kind of flukey seasons then Stastny is absolutely on the decline and I'd be much more worried about a guy who starts declining at 25 than one who does so at 30.

Again, Lecavalier's points per game the last three years is almost exactly his career average. Mats Sundin only scored 90+ points once with the Leafs when he was 27 and then was "on the decline" for another 10 years of consistently excellent production. Lecavalier has not shown any sort of consistent downward trend the last few years that would indicate a gradually declining ability. Honestly, once you factor in that his ice time and PP ice time has gone down significantly since the days when he was scoring 90+ and 100+ and, yeah, there just isn't the evidence you're talking about.

I mean, I don't know how to break this to you but Lecavalier hasn't been Tampa's #1 center the last few years.

 

[Deebo]

I wonder if he doesn't get 6M, I mean if Bozak is out there and is going to get 4.5, you have to think Lecavalier is worth 5.5-6, maybe more.

 

[Kin]

I wonder if he doesn't get 6M, I mean if Bozak is out there and is going to get 4.5, you have to think Lecavalier is worth 5.5-6, maybe more.

It wouldn't surprise me. Although, that said, I'll have to wait and see Bozak get 4.5.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I wonder if he doesn't get 6M, I mean if Bozak is out there and is going to get 4.5, you have to think Lecavalier is worth 5.5-6, maybe more.

It wouldn't surprise me. Although, that said, I'll have to wait and see Bozak get 4.5.

In this years market with the cap going down, I don't think Bozak is going to be overpaid that much, if at all.

 

[mr grieves]

I wonder if he'll be looking for a longer term deal or, like Briere, to play his value back up. Of course, his value hasn't declined as far, so I'm sure he could get a longer deal... but maybe now that's he's be cut loose by his one and only he'll want to play the field. That's wishful thinking, I'm sure.

I wonder what this does to the market for Bozak, et al. 

 

[Deebo]

I've read it suggested that he might sign a 1 year deal and go back to Tampa next year.

 

[Champ Kind]

I wonder if he doesn't get 6M, I mean if Bozak is out there and is going to get 4.5, you have to think Lecavalier is worth 5.5-6, maybe more.

It wouldn't surprise me. Although, that said, I'll have to wait and see Bozak get 4.5.

In this years market with the cap going down, I don't think Bozak is going to be overpaid that much, if at all.

Sorry in advance, BWB, if you didn't say it, but why is there an automatic assumption that Clarkson will get 'overpaid' and Boaza (or Bickell, for that matter) won't?  Or, at least, to say it with any degree of certainty.  Yes, I agree that as a general rule some of the more astute among us can ballpark player value pretty well.  But did anyone expect Ville Leino to sign for what he did?  Or that Niklas Backstrom recently signed for about half of his last contract (granted, this wasn't a UFA situation, but the principle is that Backstrom likely wanted to stay in Minnesota.  How differerent is that from saying Clarkson wants to play in Toronto?)?

All I'm saying is, it looks like player value assumptions are, at times, being thrown around rather loosely.

 

[Corn Flake]

As for Bozak....

Vinny
Roy
Ribeiro
Weiss
Koivu
Bozak
Elias
Briere

Bozak is likely going to get paid less than most guys on that list, whatever the median number ends up being. So yeah $5+? Probably not so likely. 

Vinny likely gets the most.

 

[Champ Kind]

I've read it suggested that he might sign a 1 year deal and go back to Tampa next year.

Can they do that?

 

[cabber24]

I WANT HIM!

 

[lamajama]

Yes, but you don't have to replace him by signing an already declining player to a 3 or 4 year contract. There's better options than Lecavalier. The Leafs aren't so desperate for a centre that they MUST make a move and grab Vinny.

Who?

My question exactly. 

We've been waiting since Sundin left for a 1st line centre to come available.. so Vinny is out there and WHO is better that is available?

Especially when acquisition cost is factored in. Who is available that's better and whose acquisition would make the team better than Lecavalier at no talent cost?

x 10. Especially on a short term (3 years or less) deal. I just can't understand when everyone else clamors for a true 1C when 75% of
the rest of the NHL is looking for them - and the only true way to get
these guys are to luck out in the draft. They are simply not available
through trades (unless you gut the team to do it).

 

[Kin]

Sorry in advance, BWB, if you didn't say it, but why is there an automatic assumption that Clarkson will get 'overpaid' and Boaza (or Bickell, for that matter) won't?  Or, at least, to say it with any degree of certainty.

Well, I think there are two reasons people feel pretty comfortable in saying that Clarkson will be overpaid. One, is that even though Free agency hasn't started there is kind of a sense of player's value around the league. Secondly, and probably more importantly, Clarkson is in sort of the perfect position to be overpaid. He's coming off of two seasons with eye catching numbers(30 goals!) that I think a lot of people think he'll have a hard time producing consistently or improving on, given his age. Also he's in the sort of tricky vortex where I think ideally he's a 3rd liner but he's a very, very good 3rd liner and I think that's a player whose value people tend to over-estimate.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I've read it suggested that he might sign a 1 year deal and go back to Tampa next year.

I would think that is very likely. I was thinking about that yesterday.

 

[Corn Flake]

Lecavs dishing to JVR and Kessel on a nightly basis... how does that not strike everyone as an amazing thought??!!  A very legit 1st line now with plenty of size and finally a natural playmaker - something that other than Kadri this team really really needs to improve on.  This also takes HUGE pressure off Kadri to step into that role - one I don't think he should be expected to take on.. not yet anyway.

1st line centre problem solved for the next 3-4 years, at only the cost of a contract.  Leafs can use other means to fix other problem areas vs. spending a boat load of assets on a top centre.

How is this not a good thing??!!

 

[bustaheims]

I've read it suggested that he might sign a 1 year deal and go back to Tampa next year.

Can they do that?

Yeah, that they can do. The rule for buyouts is that players cannot return to the team that bought them out for a full season after the buyout. After that, it's fair game.