Luke Schenn Traded to Flyers for JVR!!!

[Redleaf]

Rumour has it Murray wants a #2 centre as a starting point for Ryan. I'm thinking they'd ask for Grabo for starters (I would anyway.) So, what else would we need to throw in? One of our top 3 prospects? I'm not convinced that sort of deal makes sense right now given we're looking for help at centre.

I'd have no problem at all giving up Grabbo and a 1st for Ryan. If the Leafs can get Luongo at a decent price than that 1st become a middle to low 1st rounder anyways. This is almost exactly what the Leafs need more of up front: size, skill and versatility.

A top line of..

Lupul-Ryan-Kessel

would be smmmmokin'!

Ryan is not a center.  He's a winger and he would probably be on the 2nd line with Lupul and Kessel both outpacing him in points.

You mean he didn't play centre for Anaheim. He's listed as a left winger or centreman.

http://ducks.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8471676

Says right-wing there.

This is what I meant about his versatility. He can play all 3 positions up front. Pretty handy guy to have on the team.

 

[Zee]

You're free to disagree but there's no confusion on my part.

I'm confused.... I mean, we're talking about Bobby Ryan again and in the JVR thread.

It started innocently enough, as it always does, Zee offered up drinks and, well...

Hey, I just used Ryan AS AN EXAMPLE.  It could be <insert top 6 winger here>.  Just saying that even if we didn't get a #1C, another top 6 winger might fit the bill just fine.

 

[Omallley]

Rumour has it Murray wants a #2 centre as a starting point for Ryan. I'm thinking they'd ask for Grabo for starters (I would anyway.) So, what else would we need to throw in? One of our top 3 prospects? I'm not convinced that sort of deal makes sense right now given we're looking for help at centre.

We can better that.  We'll give them our #1 center from last season in Bozak.   
Throw in MacArthur and maybe a prospect like Holzer or Blacker and I think we have a makings of a deal.

That will most certainly not be happening

Ryan had 31g and 57pts last season.  Bozak scored 18g and 47pts.  Just 10 less.  MacArthur scored 20g and 43pts.  Right there alone these guys more than make up the point production of Ryan.  And then we're giving them a prospect.  How is it not even close?  Sometimes I feel you guys way overvalue other team's players and lessen the value of our players. 

In comparison with Ryan, Kessel got 37g and 82pts and people on here would probably trade Kessel for Ryan straight up or even throw in additional assets for him.  Lupul got 67pts in a shortened 66game season for him.  Ryan played all 82games.  Even Grabovski who started off slow netted 51pts.  We have to be a bit more realistic as far as assessing value.  Granted value is subjectively higher when viewed by the team that possesses the asset by the GM, but breaking it down to production (which we should here since he's a skill guy and not a grinder), the package I offered up could be sweetened further, but is not a million miles away from being realistic.

This is a pretty big oversimplification though, don't you think? I mean, GMs aren't valuing their players based on their points from the previous season alone. Ryan's scored 30 goals in the last 4 seasons, putting him in the same company as Iginla, Parise, D. Sedin, Marleau, Nash, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk and Kessel. He's a big, physical winger. He's 25, and has already put up a 70 point season.

Hell, he's scored 5 fewer goals than Rick Nash in the last four seasons. What's Nash going to command on the trade market at a much higher cap hit? Any way you dice it, Bozak isn't a close to being starting point by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[Jalili]

Rumour has it Murray wants a #2 centre as a starting point for Ryan. I'm thinking they'd ask for Grabo for starters (I would anyway.) So, what else would we need to throw in? One of our top 3 prospects? I'm not convinced that sort of deal makes sense right now given we're looking for help at centre.

We can better that.  We'll give them our #1 center from last season in Bozak.   
Throw in MacArthur and maybe a prospect like Holzer or Blacker and I think we have a makings of a deal.

That will most certainly not be happening

Ryan had 31g and 57pts last season.  Bozak scored 18g and 47pts.  Just 10 less.  MacArthur scored 20g and 43pts.  Right there alone these guys more than make up the point production of Ryan.  And then we're giving them a prospect.  How is it not even close?  Sometimes I feel you guys way overvalue other team's players and lessen the value of our players. 

In comparison with Ryan, Kessel got 37g and 82pts and people on here would probably trade Kessel for Ryan straight up or even throw in additional assets for him.  Lupul got 67pts in a shortened 66game season for him.  Ryan played all 82games.  Even Grabovski who started off slow netted 51pts.  We have to be a bit more realistic as far as assessing value.  Granted value is subjectively higher when viewed by the team that possesses the asset by the GM, but breaking it down to production (which we should here since he's a skill guy and not a grinder), the package I offered up could be sweetened further, but is not a million miles away from being realistic.

Yeah but still, its macarthur and bozak. Sentimentality aside they're both middle of the road assets. Its hard to believe there aren't better offers out there already.

 

[Rebel_1812]

Ryan had 31g and 57pts last season.  Bozak scored 18g and 47pts.  Just 10 less. 

Ten less points and 13 less goals.  Bozak got alot of easy assists passing the puck to Kessel.

 

[Rebel_1812]

Rumour has it Murray wants a #2 centre as a starting point for Ryan. I'm thinking they'd ask for Grabo for starters (I would anyway.) So, what else would we need to throw in? One of our top 3 prospects? I'm not convinced that sort of deal makes sense right now given we're looking for help at centre.

We can better that.  We'll give them our #1 center from last season in Bozak.   
Throw in MacArthur and maybe a prospect like Holzer or Blacker and I think we have a makings of a deal.

That will most certainly not be happening

Ryan had 31g and 57pts last season.  Bozak scored 18g and 47pts.  Just 10 less.  MacArthur scored 20g and 43pts.  Right there alone these guys more than make up the point production of Ryan.  And then we're giving them a prospect.  How is it not even close?  Sometimes I feel you guys way overvalue other team's players and lessen the value of our players. 

In comparison with Ryan, Kessel got 37g and 82pts and people on here would probably trade Kessel for Ryan straight up or even throw in additional assets for him.  Lupul got 67pts in a shortened 66game season for him.  Ryan played all 82games.  Even Grabovski who started off slow netted 51pts.  We have to be a bit more realistic as far as assessing value.  Granted value is subjectively higher when viewed by the team that possesses the asset by the GM, but breaking it down to production (which we should here since he's a skill guy and not a grinder), the package I offered up could be sweetened further, but is not a million miles away from being realistic.

This is a pretty big oversimplification though, don't you think? I mean, GMs aren't valuing their players based on their points from the previous season alone. Ryan's scored 30 goals in the last 4 seasons, putting him in the same company as Iginla, Parise, D. Sedin, Marleau, Nash, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk and Kessel. He's a big, physical winger. He's 25, and has already put up a 70 point season.

Hell, he's scored 5 fewer goals than Rick Nash in the last four seasons. What's Nash going to command on the trade market at a much higher cap hit? Any way you dice it, Bozak isn't a close to being starting point by any stretch of the imagination.

I agree,  I would rather have Ryan then Nash.  However, I don't think the Leafs have the assets to make that deal.  What could they offer Anaheim?

 

[Kin]

Ryan had 31g and 57pts last season.  Bozak scored 18g and 47pts.  Just 10 less.  MacArthur scored 20g and 43pts.  Right there alone these guys more than make up the point production of Ryan.  And then we're giving them a prospect.  How is it not even close?  Sometimes I feel you guys way overvalue other team's players and lessen the value of our players.

I think this post right here sort of contains what is probably the most fundamental misunderstanding of how players are evaluated that we see today. Not just the idea that the only way a team will measure a player being the number of points scored but also the idea that two players can somehow be combined to form a rough equivalent of another player.

A team looking at a player is going to not just flip on over to NHL.com and look at their points column, they're going to look at what they can and can't do on the ice, how those goals are scored, how those points are produced and how that translates. A guy like Bozak, scoring 47 points on the top line playing with two ppg wingers, is not going to be seen as a guy whose point total reflects anything specific about his worth or a guy who will just pick up and produce those 47 points regardless of how he's used.

 

[Rebel_1812]

No one talking aobut JVR going playing as a center?  Due to the coaches remarks I think it is a certainty that he will try it at training camp and go from there. 

 

[moon111]

Seems weird to think a forward who played about the same amount of games as Komisarek and had only 9 assists more, would be the solution.  Maybe they're looking to add a little toughness to a line?  He did have the same amount of hits as Dupuis... okay in 13 more games, but who's counting?  The guy did take 5 faceoffs for Philly last year, even won a couple.  I see no reason using him as a bottom six center, there's better choices.  So hopefully Philly has been totally under utilizing him and he'll become the big #1?  Not likely, but A+ for trying I guess.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Seems weird to think a forward who played about the same amount of games as Komisarek and had only 9 assists more, would be the solution. 

This shouldn't even need replying, but in case you actually believe what you just typed: 

JVR = .56 PPG
Komisarek = .11 PPG

And I don't think anyone is saying he is the solution, just another good forward with potential to be very good.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Seems weird to think a forward who played about the same amount of games as Komisarek and had only 9 assists more, would be the solution. 

This shouldn't even need replying, but in case you actually believe what you just typed: 

JVR = .56 PPG
Komisarek = .11 PPG

And I don't think anyone is saying he is the solution, just another good forward with potential to be very good.

Strictly speaking, what he said is true.  Although, he just as correctly could have said that JVR had over 3 times as many assists as Komisarek.

Hey, how about this:
1) JVR scored just 10 more goals than Komisarek
or
2) JVR scored 11 times as many goals as Komisarek

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Oh I know it is true, but was questioning the belief that it was at all relevant to anything.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Oh I know it is true, but was questioning the belief that it was at all relevant to anything.

Oh, I know, I was just expanding on your thoughts.

 

[moon111]

Or you could say that JVR is more of a goal-scorer then a play-maker.  And maybe that's okay because the whole world knows that Bozak passes to Kessel and that's the only option teams need to defend against. 

 

[jonlleafs]

Ryan had 31g and 57pts last season.  Bozak scored 18g and 47pts.  Just 10 less.  MacArthur scored 20g and 43pts.  Right there alone these guys more than make up the point production of Ryan.  And then we're giving them a prospect.  How is it not even close?  Sometimes I feel you guys way overvalue other team's players and lessen the value of our players.

I think this post right here sort of contains what is probably the most fundamental misunderstanding of how players are evaluated that we see today. Not just the idea that the only way a team will measure a player being the number of points scored but also the idea that two players can somehow be combined to form a rough equivalent of another player.

A team looking at a player is going to not just flip on over to NHL.com and look at their points column, they're going to look at what they can and can't do on the ice, how those goals are scored, how those points are produced and how that translates. A guy like Bozak, scoring 47 points on the top line playing with two ppg wingers, is not going to be seen as a guy whose point total reflects anything specific about his worth or a guy who will just pick up and produce those 47 points regardless of how he's used.

Hmm... funny, after watching Moneyball, isn't that exactly what the Oakland A's did and pulled off a record setting 20 game win streak? 

Anyhow, yes, I know it's not all about numbers and I don't need your attitude to tell me that.  I've watched enough hockey to see the difference.  By the way, how many games did you actually watch from start to end last year and for the last few years?  I've probably missed less than 10 games watched in the last 3 seasons.  And the only reason why I missed them is because my DVR didn't record it properly or the broadcast was dropped or on the wrong channel being here in California. 

I know that Bozak isn't an elite talent and yes maybe he doesn't get the same points as he would without those 2 wingers, but you could be wrong.  I see Bozak's game kinda regress offensively from the first year because now instead of trying to score himself he always dishes even when he shouldn't.  I remember when he burst onto the scene, he was very creative and had some nice moves.  So if he's on a line without better players, he takes it in himself to try to score.  Maybe he gets more points than 47.  You and everyone else on this board would never know if this could happen or not without it actually happening.

So back to my initial post, yeah, we're doing a quantity over quality here.  We're giving up quantity for quality.  Duck's are giving up 1 great but not elite talent and would want to replace that with serviceable players and Bozak and MacArthur right away would do that AND they get a prospect in addition.

 

[Kin]

Hmm... funny, after watching Moneyball, isn't that exactly what the Oakland A's did and pulled off a record setting 20 game win streak?

Well, there are two problems there. For starters, it's sort of a misunderstanding of what Moneyball was really about. Moneyball was about the use of complicated statistics that adjusted for biases similar to linemates and style of play and park factors and replacing the judgments made by people who looked at simplistic statistics like home runs and RBI's. Just looking at something as simplistic point totals is most assuredly not what Moneyball was about.

The second problem, and this is a subtle point of the movie and easy to miss, is that Moneyball was about Baseball.

Anyhow, yes, I know it's not all about numbers and I don't need your know-it-all attitude telling me so.  I've watched enough hockey to see the difference.

If you knew that with any sort of authority you wouldn't say things like "Clarke MacArthur and Tyler Bozak will replace Bobby Ryan's production".

  By the way, how many games did you actually watch from start to end last year and for the last few years?  I've probably missed less than 10 games watched in the last 3 seasons.  And the only reason why I missed them is because my DVR didn't record it properly or the broadcast was dropped or on the wrong channel being here in California.

I tend not to watch hockey games as I find them unreasonably corporeal. I tend to dream-conceive them in my drum circle so as better to appropriate their spirit.

I know that Bozak isn't an elite talent and yes maybe he doesn't get the same points as he would without those 2 wingers, but you could be wrong.  I see Bozak's game kinda regress offensively from the first year because now instead of trying to score himself he always dishes even when he shouldn't.  I remember when he burst onto the scene, he was very creative and had some nice moves.  So if he's on a line without better players, he takes it in himself to try to score.  Maybe he gets more points than 47.  You and everyone else on this board would never know if this could happen or not without it actually happening.

We also don't know if the delicious sandwiches of Primanti Brothers would inspire Colton Orr to score 95 goals next year! We could trade him for Malkin!

So back to my initial post, yeah, we're doing a quantity over quality here.  We're giving up quantity for quality.  Duck's are giving up 1 great but not elite talent and would want to replace that with serviceable players and Bozak and MacArthur right away would do that AND they get a prospect in addition.

And that is still being roundly mocked. A mid-level prospect and run of the mill NHL'ers cannot land you one of the league's best goal scoring wingers. If it could, everyone in the world would make that trade.

 

[#1PilarFan]

Nik, you forgot to mention market inefficiencies in regards to Moneyball.

Just saying.

 

[Kin]

Nik, you forgot to mention market inefficiencies in regards to Moneyball.

Yeah, but he was referring to the movie rather than the book and the movie is less about the exploitation of market inefficiencies and more about the reliance on numbers over scouting.

But, you know, still helpful.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Or you could say that JVR is more of a goal-scorer then a play-maker.  And maybe that's okay because the whole world knows that Bozak passes to Kessel and that's the only option teams need to defend against.

Only option?  Lupul was on a 31 goal pace, and had 25 before he was injured.

 

[riff raff]

Nik, you forgot to mention market inefficiencies in regards to Moneyball.

Yeah, but he was referring to the movie rather than the book and the movie is less about the exploitation of market inefficiencies and more about the reliance on numbers over scouting.

But, you know, still helpful.

You also forgot to mention that, in the end, Oakland didn't actually win anything.

Championship-wise.