Luongo

[bustaheims]

Schneider is signed - that was the only landmine Gillis really had to worry about.  He doesn't have to worry about re-signing anyone of significance, they still have 5M in cap space...they could sit Luongo out until November / December if they had to (don't think it will get to that though)...looking at all the intangibles I'd say he's dead serious when he says he's going to take as much time as it needs to make a deal that benefits the organization. 

If Luongo doesn't get moved before the season, things get much more difficult for Gillis. It's not easy to move a player of that magnitude much before the deadline, and, if Luongo has been starting, then his value will have dropped even further. On top of that, the whole situation likely begins to become a distraction for the team in the dressing room and in their dealings with the media. The longer he waits, the less the Panthers are going to be interested (and, my guess is their interest is really only mild at this point as it is), Bernier probably gets moved and Burke will begin to feel like he's really in the driver's seat here. Waiting does nothing for Gillis but placate his ego. None of the teams interested in Luongo appear to have the desperation he needs them to in order to get the return he's looking for.

 

[Madferret]

Schneider is signed - that was the only landmine Gillis really had to worry about.  He doesn't have to worry about re-signing anyone of significance, they still have 5M in cap space...they could sit Luongo out until November / December if they had to (don't think it will get to that though)...looking at all the intangibles I'd say he's dead serious when he says he's going to take as much time as it needs to make a deal that benefits the organization. 

If Luongo doesn't get moved before the season, things get much more difficult for Gillis. It's not easy to move a player of that magnitude much before the deadline, and, if Luongo has been starting, then his value will have dropped even further. On top of that, the whole situation likely begins to become a distraction for the team in the dressing room and in their dealings with the media. The longer he waits, the less the Panthers are going to be interested (and, my guess is their interest is really only mild at this point as it is), Bernier probably gets moved and Burke will begin to feel like he's really in the driver's seat here. Waiting does nothing for Gillis but placate his ego. None of the teams interested in Luongo appear to have the desperation he needs them to in order to get the return he's looking for.

That's your take on it & I understand that but there isn't any kind of evidence that supports that theory, at least not right now. It does sound like you might have a few fingers crossed though ;]

 

[BCLeaf]

The way I see it is:

1. The only reason why Florida is in play is that Luongo?s wife does not want to leave Florida.  Florida got fleeced in the Bertuzzi-Luongo deal (not that it matters now, but perhaps ownership, not management, may still harbor some resentment).  Add on his high salary, not cap, for the next 6 years, Florida is not going to offer much if anything significant.
2. Gillis is trying to create an artificial market for Luongo.  Even the Van media is all over him on this.  He got painted into the corner after signing Schneider to that 3yr deal.  Everyone knows that he is bluffing.  This would be the Potvin-Cujo scenario come October.
3. Toronto needs a proven goalie for a couple of years.

This is going to be a poker game between Burke and Gillis to see who blinks first before the season starts.  Best scenario I see is that Luongo goes to the Leafs for 2 or 3 yrs where Toronto can easily pay his 6.7 mil salary and ship him off to Florida where they can use his cap space?.albeit that they would have to pay a few years at 6.7mil if he can last like Brodeur.  I?m sure there would be a bad contact that goes the other way.

 

[cw]

Schneider is signed - that was the only landmine Gillis really had to worry about.

I think he has something else to worry about: he has a 33 yr old goalie owed nearly $50 mil in a guaranteed contract who is a backup on his depth charts with a questionable short list of teams who would or could consider taking him.

He doesn't have to worry about re-signing anyone of significance, they still have 5M in cap space...

For now. The upcoming CBA is very likely to change that number downwards and we don't know what sort of grandfathering is going to be available.

they could sit Luongo out until November / December if they had to (don't think it will get to that though)...looking at all the intangibles I'd say he's dead serious when he says he's going to take as much time as it needs to make a deal that benefits the organization. 

bustaheims isn't the only one to raise the issues he did. He's not pulling them out of thin air. It's been a problem with goalies for decades.

Beyond that, Gillis is very constrained:
- Luongo has control over where he goes with his NTC
- a heck of a lot of NHL clubs are 'comfortable' enough in goal they don't need to consider taking such a risk with a 33 yr old goalie who may have slipped a little
- no GM in the league could pull off such a deal without getting approval from their owner
- small market teams struggling financially cannot afford to take such a risk

If you run through that factual criteria, the number of potential destinations for Luongo is few - which will keep the bidding price down.

"make a deal that benefits the organization."
If Gillis sends picks with Luongo's contract and gets that contract off his books, that alone is very likely to benefit his organization, assuming of course that Schneider is up to the task.

When the Flyers had to send a 3rd round pick with Roenick to get LA to take his contract, it underscored how the value of players had changed. Even though he was in decline, in a pure traditional hockey trade, Roenick was worth more than a 3rd round pick yet the Flyers had to send one to LA to get them to take Roenick off their hands. Cap space under the new CBA is an asset in a hockey trade.

If Luongo was in the final year or two of his deal, some teams would be falling over each other in a desperate effort to get him and would pay handsomely for the privilege. His deal would have happened ages ago. But that contract - both in terms of financial risk and in terms of long term cap space (in an uncertain CBA environment), along with Luongo having a say in the destination, make it very difficult for Gillis to move him at all. I don't care what Gillis says to the media. He can't escape the above facts.

 

[Madferret]

You guys are hoping for the worst case scenario to pan out so Burke has some leverage - I understand that. We will see what happens when it all plays out I guess - if Luongo goes to Florida or any other team for a package that's deemed "lacking" it should make for interesting discussions.

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

please go to florida ..please go to florida ..please go to florida!

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

You guys are hoping for the worst case scenario to pan out so Burke has some leverage - I understand that.

And you're assuming the worst case scenario for the Leafs - that Gillis doesn't think he has to trade Luongo, and that Burke is desperate to pick him up so will give up to get him.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

You guys are hoping for the worst case scenario to pan out so Burke has some leverage - I understand that. We will see what happens when it all plays out I guess - if Luongo goes to Florida or any other team for a package that's deemed "lacking" it should make for interesting discussions.

I don't think anybody is hoping for anything really. From what I gather as a general feel, not too many people really want Luongo anyway, at least I don't. I'm very indifferent about him and it's not just because of his contract. I don't really like his performance in the playoffs and some games I've seen him play.

Leafs Nation is not really pining for Luongo, as Gillis leads others to believe.

 

[bustaheims]

You guys are hoping for the worst case scenario to pan out so Burke has some leverage - I understand that. We will see what happens when it all plays out I guess - if Luongo goes to Florida or any other team for a package that's deemed "lacking" it should make for interesting discussions.

Not at all. I don't believe Burke is really all that interested in Luongo and honestly don't expect him to be a Leaf. I just think Vancouver is the team that are backed into the corner here, whether they want to believe it or not. The longer this goes, the less they're going to be able to get for him - and they're not going to be able to get much for him right now.

 

[cw]

You guys are hoping for the worst case scenario to pan out so Burke has some leverage - I understand that. We will see what happens when it all plays out I guess - if Luongo goes to Florida or any other team for a package that's deemed "lacking" it should make for interesting discussions.

I'd love Luongo's talent given the Leafs uncertain situation in goal. But I don't want his contract - even if the Canucks took Komisarek's. So in terms of hoping for something from this situation, I'm hoping Luongo gets moved somewhere other than Toronto that might free up a sensible interim starting goalie. But that's about it. As I've said before, that contract is so discouraging, it wouldn't shock me if Roberto finished next season in Vancouver.

 

[rdowdall]

You guys are hoping for the worst case scenario to pan out so Burke has some leverage - I understand that. We will see what happens when it all plays out I guess - if Luongo goes to Florida or any other team for a package that's deemed "lacking" it should make for interesting discussions.

Those that want Luongo here sure, those that don't probably not.  If that is what Gillis wants, then I hope Burke stays away.  5 players for a goalie?  How is that going to make the team better?  Great, now you have a goalie that can steal a game or two, but you have nothing to surround them with.  You also lose assets that could be a part of another trade.  If Gillis wants that, then great.  If a team like Florida feels they can pay that amount for Luongo, then so be it.  The Leafs will probably be bad again next year with the goaltending they currently have, but at least if they have their first round pick they should be able to get a good player.

 

[Rebel_1812]

You guys are hoping for the worst case scenario to pan out so Burke has some leverage - I understand that. We will see what happens when it all plays out I guess - if Luongo goes to Florida or any other team for a package that's deemed "lacking" it should make for interesting discussions.

I'd love Luongo's talent given the Leafs uncertain situation in goal. But I don't want his contract - even if the Canucks took Komisarek's. So in terms of hoping for something from this situation, I'm hoping Luongo gets moved somewhere other than Toronto that might free up a sensible interim starting goalie. But that's about it. As I've said before, that contract is so discouraging, it wouldn't shock me if Roberto finished next season in Vancouver.

Since Gillis is acting like this is Rick Nash 2 in terms of the kings ransom he wants; I think that will be the result.

 

[Tigger]

Gillis must be loving this - he's really got Burke by the cajones.

Not really. I think all of Leafland liked Luongo because he represented an upgrade in net without commanding a ton of assets in return. Instead, Gillis wants more than he paid for him originally. Gillis is the one who's going to look like an idiot if he has two starters making $9+m while needing to upgrade other areas.

Yeah, I don't think Burke's situation there is quite that dire either but Gillis didn't pay anything for Luongo originally, Nonis did. Sorry if I'm misreading you there a little but that's what it seemed like.

I said a while back that I wouldn't be surprised if Luongo was a Canuck next year, maybe there's some kind of reverse tampering charge available?...

 

[KW Sluggo]

please go to florida ..please go to florida ..please go to florida!

X2

 

[KW Sluggo]

There was an interesting aside by Bob McCown after he concluded his interview with Burke.

During the interview, McCown prefaced one of his questions by referencing  an off air discussion he had had with Burke.

After Burke left and as he was going to commercial, McCown made a remark to the effect that Luongo to the Leafs was not going to happen because Burke doesn't want him. Since nothing to that effect came out of the on air interview, it would appear that it was part of the off air conversation.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There was an interesting aside by Bob McCown after he concluded his interview with Burke.

During the interview, McCown prefaced one of his questions by referencing  an off air discussion he had had with Burke.

After Burke left and as he was going to commercial, McCown made a remark to the effect that Luongo to the Leafs was not going to happen because Burke doesn't want him. Since nothing to that effect came out of the on air interview, it would appear that it was part of the off air conversation.

I'd be a little surprised if Burke was just going out and telling radio personalities things like that, especially McCown who I never really thought Burke was particularly fond of.

 

[bustaheims]

I'd be a little surprised if Burke was just going out and telling radio personalities things like that, especially McCown who I never really thought Burke was particularly fond of.

Yeah. I don't see Burke being that cut and dry about any player with anyone outside the team's front office. As for not wanting Luongo, why would he have been involved in negotiations for him if he didn't want him?

 

[KW Sluggo]

I'd be a little surprised if Burke was just going out and telling radio personalities things like that, especially McCown who I never really thought Burke was particularly fond of.

Yeah. I don't see Burke being that cut and dry about any player with anyone outside the team's front office. As for not wanting Luongo, why would he have been involved in negotiations for him if he didn't want him?

Look, all I can say is that is what I heard. McCown said something like 'it ain't going to happen because he doesn't want him'

As for the negotiations, what negotiations?

Yes, they talked but it would be stretch to say there were negotiations. It seems clear from Burke's repeated references to being asked to "strip mine" his roster, that any discussions died at the preliminary stage and were likely pro forma in any event.

 

[KW Sluggo]

There was an interesting aside by Bob McCown after he concluded his interview with Burke.

During the interview, McCown prefaced one of his questions by referencing  an off air discussion he had had with Burke.

After Burke left and as he was going to commercial, McCown made a remark to the effect that Luongo to the Leafs was not going to happen because Burke doesn't want him. Since nothing to that effect came out of the on air interview, it would appear that it was part of the off air conversation.

I'd be a little surprised if Burke was just going out and telling radio personalities things like that, especially McCown who I never really thought Burke was particularly fond of.

Well, that was what was said.

I think I would be more surprised at the fact that it took Steve Nash 4 days to discover that he had children that he wanted to live close to.

And yet, that is what happened.

 

[KW Sluggo]

I would much rather Luongo and his contract go to Florida and then if the Panthers want to deal Theodore to us, I would be pleased to take on his one year $1.5M contract.