Luongo

[Etiam Vultus]

It was mentioned earlier that Jeff Carter got traded twice even with his monster contract.

In addition to what was noted about Carter being younger than Luongo, there is significantly more risk tying up years of cap space in a goalie as opposed to a forward.  Vinny Lecalvier is not playing at the level he should be based on his contract, but Tampa Bay can use him on the third line.  As a goalie, Vinny's level of performance would be a killer. 

The more I think about it, the less willing I am to take the risk on Luongo. 

 

[jdh1]

I'll pass on Luongo...I'm still stinging from the Darcy Tucker contract.

 

[TML fan]

Unless the Leafs are sending nothing but bad contracts back their way (Komisarek, Lombardi, Armstrong), no thanks.

 

[moon111]

I wonder if anyone's looked at the details of Loungo's contract?  I've heard $5.333 cap hit over 12 years.
No trade clause.  But did anyone else know Luongo did not get a no-movement clause?  This according to faceoff.com. 

2010-11 $10,000,000
2011-12    $6,716,000
=================
2012-13    $6,716,000
2013-14    $6,716,000
2014-15    $6,716,000
*Loungo can trigger trade*
2015-16    $6,716,000
2016-17    $6,716,000
*Team can move Loungo*
2017-18    $6,716,000
*$7 contract left for 4 years.  Buy-out amount (2/3rds of contract) = $4.7 million.
Spread out over 8 years = $587,000 a year.
2018-19    $3,382,000
2019-20    $1,618,000
2020-21    $1,000,000
2021-22    $1,000,000

To me, this isn't looking too bad anymore.  Throw in a Komisarek without Gartiner... ...maybe Burke is on to something.

 

[princedpw]

I wonder if anyone's looked at the details of Loungo's contract?  I've heard $5.333 cap hit over 12 years.
No trade clause.  But did anyone else know Luongo did not get a no-movement clause?  This according to faceoff.com. 

2010-11 $10,000,000
2011-12    $6,716,000
=================
2012-13    $6,716,000
2013-14    $6,716,000
2014-15    $6,716,000
*Loungo can trigger trade*
2015-16    $6,716,000
2016-17    $6,716,000
*Team can move Loungo*
2017-18    $6,716,000
*$7 contract left for 4 years.  Buy-out amount (2/3rds of contract) = $4.7 million.
Spread out over 8 years = $587,000 a year.
2018-19    $3,382,000
2019-20    $1,618,000
2020-21    $1,000,000
2021-22    $1,000,000

To me, this isn't looking too bad anymore.  Throw in a Komisarek without Gartiner... ...maybe Burke is on to something.

I think it depends tremendously on the next CBA.  The next CBA could say, for instance, that every year after 35 automatically counts fully against the cap regardless of whether a player retires to try to preclude teams from cheating their way around the cap with these tail-off deals.  Or there could be any number of variations on such ideas -- I have no clue, except that I believe it is extremely likely that somehow these deals will be severely curtailed, punished or prevented.  So if I were GM, I just don't think I could risk trading for Luongo prior to seeing the new CBA and how it will affect his deal.

 

[Redleaf]

I wonder if anyone's looked at the details of Loungo's contract?  I've heard $5.333 cap hit over 12 years.
No trade clause.  But did anyone else know Luongo did not get a no-movement clause?  This according to faceoff.com. 

2010-11 $10,000,000
2011-12    $6,716,000
=================
2012-13    $6,716,000
2013-14    $6,716,000
2014-15    $6,716,000
*Loungo can trigger trade*
2015-16    $6,716,000
2016-17    $6,716,000
*Team can move Loungo*
2017-18    $6,716,000
*$7 contract left for 4 years.  Buy-out amount (2/3rds of contract) = $4.7 million.
Spread out over 8 years = $587,000 a year.
2018-19    $3,382,000
2019-20    $1,618,000
2020-21    $1,000,000
2021-22    $1,000,000

To me, this isn't looking too bad anymore.  Throw in a Komisarek without Gartiner... ...maybe Burke is on to something.

I think it depends tremendously on the next CBA.  The next CBA could say, for instance, that every year after 35 automatically counts fully against the cap regardless of whether a player retires to try to preclude teams from cheating their way around the cap with these tail-off deals.  Or there could be any number of variations on such ideas -- I have no clue, except that I believe it is extremely likely that somehow these deals will be severely curtailed, punished or prevented.  So if I were GM, I just don't think I could risk trading for Luongo prior to seeing the new CBA and how it will affect his deal.

It would make more sense though to grandfather these types of deals in, so that it is stopped moving forward, but doesn't hurt a team that played fairly (used loosely) under the old rules.

 

[princedpw]

maybe -- under the old rules, in order to claim to not be violating the salary cap, the teams claimed that they fully expected the players to play out their contracts.  This is, of course, a lie, and everybody knows it.  However, it makes it quite a bit more difficult for teams who have signed these players to now argue that they should be grandfathered so that in case they dont play out the contract, it doesnt hurt them.  i mean, i suspect they'll try this but there might be sufficiently many teams pissed at the clubs who did it to call them on their hypocracy.

In any event, my point is that it is hard to predict what will happen. So I just wouldnt risk it.  The downside of wait-and-see is low.  The risk is high.  I'd prefer to mitigate my risk by waiting to see what happens.

 

[bustaheims]

2012-13    $6,716,000
2013-14    $6,716,000
2014-15    $6,716,000
*Loungo can trigger trade*
2015-16    $6,716,000
2016-17    $6,716,000
*Team can move Loungo*
2017-18    $6,716,000
*$7 contract left for 4 years.  Buy-out amount (2/3rds of contract) = $4.7 million.
Spread out over 8 years = $587,000 a year.
2018-19    $3,382,000
2019-20    $1,618,000
2020-21    $1,000,000
2021-22    $1,000,000

Just a couple little things - the summer of 2017 team can move Luongo disappears if he requests a trade in the summer of 2015 and is not moved (assuming the team he's traded to decides to honour the NTC after the trade, of course, as they have to option not to). Also, that buyout number only represents the actual cash he'd receive in a buyout. Unless the system is changed in the new CBA, the actual cap hits would look like this if he was bought out with 4 season remaining on his deal:

2018-19 - $2,534,667
2019-20 - $4,298,667
2020-21 - $4,916,667
2021-22 - $4,916,667
2022-23 - $583,333
2023-24 - $583,333
2024-25 - $583,333
2025-26 - $583,333

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I wonder if anyone's looked at the details of Loungo's contract?  I've heard $5.333 cap hit over 12 years.
No trade clause.  But did anyone else know Luongo did not get a no-movement clause?  This according to faceoff.com. 

2010-11 $10,000,000
2011-12    $6,716,000
=================
2012-13    $6,716,000
2013-14    $6,716,000
2014-15    $6,716,000
*Loungo can trigger trade*
2015-16    $6,716,000
2016-17    $6,716,000
*Team can move Loungo*
2017-18    $6,716,000
*$7 contract left for 4 years.  Buy-out amount (2/3rds of contract) = $4.7 million.
Spread out over 8 years = $587,000 a year.
2018-19    $3,382,000
2019-20    $1,618,000
2020-21    $1,000,000
2021-22    $1,000,000

To me, this isn't looking too bad anymore.  Throw in a Komisarek without Gartiner... ...maybe Burke is on to something.

I think it depends tremendously on the next CBA.  The next CBA could say, for instance, that every year after 35 automatically counts fully against the cap regardless of whether a player retires to try to preclude teams from cheating their way around the cap with these tail-off deals.  Or there could be any number of variations on such ideas -- I have no clue, except that I believe it is extremely likely that somehow these deals will be severely curtailed, punished or prevented.  So if I were GM, I just don't think I could risk trading for Luongo prior to seeing the new CBA and how it will affect his deal.

It would make more sense though to grandfather these types of deals in, so that it is stopped moving forward, but doesn't hurt a team that played fairly (used loosely) under the old rules.

That was my thought as well.  Those deals were negotiated in good faith, whether anyone thinks they're fair or not, so it would be hard to imagine the league could just change the rules on them in mid-flight.  Honouring the old deals, while not allowing any more going forward makes the most sense.

 

[moon111]

The way I look at it, the first 'out' in Luongo's contract is in 2015.  And although
Luongo has to initiate it, it would be pretty easy to get him do so if the Leafs
sent him to the minors.  If Komisarek was going the other way, the total
difference would only be an increase in $833,000 for the next two years. 
+Luongo+cheaper D-man from Marlies v.s. Komisarek+Gustavsson, cap-wise,
there's not a whole lot of difference.  Talent-wise, it would be huge rip-off
as the Leafs would end up better in net, and probably on the blue-line as well.

As far as I'm concerned, the contract isn't scaring me like it once did.  It's the
possible compensation.  I could live with Komi + any goalie prospect as compensation.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

On the other hand, if the kids need to be given extra development team time (Scrivens, Reimer, et al), signing an experienced/good netminder along the lines of a Vokoun, Bernier, Harding or the likes, would be a far better, saner, safer option.

At least at the goaltending position, I'm moving away from the "Just give the kids time" stance to the "assume the kids aren't going to ever be ready and make other plans.. if they end up emerging and taking over from a proven guy then yay for us."

Vokoun is the only stop gap I'm interested in. I liked Biron earlier but I'm not feeling as good about that now as I did earlier, mostly because the Luongo fan club is winning me over.

Vokoun has been traded to Pittsburgh for a 7th rounder.

 

[maplesyrup]

 

[Redleaf]

Who's left now?

Bob McKenzie ‏@TSNBobMcKenzie
PIT acquires right to Tomas Vokoun from WSH for 7th rd pick. Which suggests Vokoun's new contract in PIT is likely done or will be shortly.

 

[Corn Flake]

Who's left now?

Biron
Luongo
Ghost of Tim Thomas.

 

[Redleaf]

Who's left now?

Biron
Luongo
Ghost of Tim Thomas.

I'm thinking this only goes to strengthen the rumor that Luongo is coming to Toronto, Surely Burke would have offered more than a 7th rounder for Vokoun if he was in the plans.

 

[Zee]

Well there goes that.

 

[Corn Flake]

Who's left now?

Biron
Luongo
Ghost of Tim Thomas.

I'm thinking this only goes to strengthen the rumor that Luongo is coming to Toronto, Surely Burke would have offered more than a 7th rounder for Vokoun if he was in the plans.

I would think so too.  Although Vokoun may have had preferred destinations he was willing to talk to before July 1.  Vokoun has already signed for 2 years, $2 mil per.  Since this went down so quick I imagine discussions were already underway between PIT and Vokoun before this trade.

 

[The Red Polar Bear]

Who's left now?

Biron
Luongo
Ghost of Tim Thomas.

Harding?

 

[maplesyrup]

Lindback? Bernier?

 

[Corn Flake]

Who's left now?

Biron
Luongo
Ghost of Tim Thomas.

Harding?

Why bother.