Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
- Thread starter WhatIfGodWasALeaf
- Start date
ZBBM
Active member
Cullen of TSN:
He?s a 14-time 20-goal scorer, including last season when he buried 27, but there are some reasons to be wary about his production moving forward. Over the past three seasons, he has 1.35 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, the same as Alex Burrows and Nikolai Kulemin.
Another concern is that Marleau shot 14.2% last season, his best rate since 2009-2010. This matters because he generated 2.32 shots per game last season, his lowest since 2002-2003. If his shooting percentage comes down, that shot rate had better bounce back if he?s going to maintain this level of production.
Even if his game is declining, he?s not exactly limping towards the finish of his career. Marleau is still a very strong skater, has good size and hasn?t missed a game since 2008-2009....
Verdict: Adding Marleau does make the Maple Leafs better, but it?s really difficult to foresee his production from ages 38 to 40 being enough to justify the terms of this contract. The signing does indicate that Toronto sees that their window to be a contender is open, and they?re right, but there is a fair chance that the return does not match the investment. But, if the Maple Leafs end up going further in the playoffs with Marleau in the lineup, criticism will be muted.
So, some cautionary notes along with the upside.
He?s a 14-time 20-goal scorer, including last season when he buried 27, but there are some reasons to be wary about his production moving forward. Over the past three seasons, he has 1.35 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, the same as Alex Burrows and Nikolai Kulemin.
Another concern is that Marleau shot 14.2% last season, his best rate since 2009-2010. This matters because he generated 2.32 shots per game last season, his lowest since 2002-2003. If his shooting percentage comes down, that shot rate had better bounce back if he?s going to maintain this level of production.
Even if his game is declining, he?s not exactly limping towards the finish of his career. Marleau is still a very strong skater, has good size and hasn?t missed a game since 2008-2009....
Verdict: Adding Marleau does make the Maple Leafs better, but it?s really difficult to foresee his production from ages 38 to 40 being enough to justify the terms of this contract. The signing does indicate that Toronto sees that their window to be a contender is open, and they?re right, but there is a fair chance that the return does not match the investment. But, if the Maple Leafs end up going further in the playoffs with Marleau in the lineup, criticism will be muted.
So, some cautionary notes along with the upside.
Kin
New member
That seems like the sort of criticism that thinks of value in a production/dollars paid sense as a static concept that exists free of context.
Honestly, I'd guess that the odds that Marleau plays a shift for the Leafs in the 3rd year of that contract as 75/25 against with the 25 only happening if the first two years are really successful. Looking at it with a real concern for what his production might be at 40 seems to be sort of willfully ignoring the reality of the circumstances.
Honestly, I'd guess that the odds that Marleau plays a shift for the Leafs in the 3rd year of that contract as 75/25 against with the 25 only happening if the first two years are really successful. Looking at it with a real concern for what his production might be at 40 seems to be sort of willfully ignoring the reality of the circumstances.
ZBBM
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right? Who presumably set him up a lot. I just hope that isn't the beginning of a downward trend that, at his age, is almost inevitable. If he's not getting lots of shots on goal, then he becomes less of an upgrade on Hyman.
The indisputably good thing, I hasten to add, is that this surely pushes Hyman down the depth chart, where he belongs.
I also should add I'm not so worried about his 5/5 points avg -- if he plays with AM and Willie then that will go up I'd bet.
Kin
New member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Not primarily. He played 1100 ES minutes last year(1104 to be exact) and he played with Thornton for 369 of them. He played more with Pavelski, who's a shooter, and he played even more with Burns who was taking a ton of shots.
But again, worrying about his production maybe dropping is reasonable. Doing so in the context of worrying about whether his production will match his cap hit, especially in the third year seems better suited to some sort of salary capped fantasy league than the particulars of this actual contract.
ZBBM
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
OK, thanks for correcting me on that point. I don't watch the Sharks much (obviously) and just assumed he played with Thornton. That eases my concern somewhat. But I still am leery of term going to a guy who'll be 38 when he first suits up for us.
I just hope Lou is not Burke-ing the Shanaplan to kingdom come.
Kin
New member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
The absolute worst case scenario is that Marleau is old and plays terrible and a team that doesn't really need cap space has some of it tied up in a AHL player who is old and terrible.
There were no options to improve the team that weren't going to have a risk or downside of any sort. If Patrick Marleau were 34 he'd be looking for 6 years, not 3 and he'd be looking for 7-8 million per, not 6.
There's a potential downside to this deal, as there is all deals, but the actual chances of that downside really negatively affecting the team are very, very low.
I'd prefer Justin Williams 2-year 4.5/year contract over this one. Or a 2-year 5.5/year contract if one wants to argue that we needed to outbid the canes. Williams seems to have similar production, excellent possession numbers, playoff experience, but he's a notch number and we avoid the risk of that third year.
But I believe somebody said you don't always get what you want ...
It does seem reasonable to take some risk for no asset cost rather than no risk at all. It is a brief contention window.
But I believe somebody said you don't always get what you want ...
It does seem reasonable to take some risk for no asset cost rather than no risk at all. It is a brief contention window.
BlueWhiteBlood
New member
Zee said:
Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?
Kin
New member
princedpw said:
That's operating under the assumption that what Williams signed for is the absolute maximum the Canes would have offered. If Williams was open to offers from the highest bidder there's every chance that what it would have taken to sign him wasn't outbidding what he got by a nominal amount by increasing the term as well.
Again, the "risk of the third year" is effectively saying that you're worried that this front office can't pull off what pretty much every other front office seems to be able to when they've got a contract like this. A 6 million dollar cap hit with only 1.5 million in salary isn't going to be terribly hard to move.
Nik the Trik said:
It's also assuming that Williams wouldn't have demanded a 3rd year from the Leafs just like Marleau did. Williams spent 5 years in Carolina. He and is family already have a lot of familiarity there. But if he was uprooting his entire family to a new city for the first time then he might have needed the extra year for stability just like Marleau did.
What I really like about this deal (and the pursuit of Thornton) is that it shows management recognizes that there's a clear window to win a Stanley Cup in the next 2 years. That's not to say that the window closes after Matthews and Marner get their next contracts of course, but it changes a little bit. I wasn't sure if they would kind of sit on their hands a little bit and just be happy with whatever success comes their way during that time, and I'm glad that doesn't seem to be the case. They gotta go for it.
This team right now, especially in the current era that doesn't see a juggernaut like Chicago or LA or Boston exist anymore, is good enough to win the Cup with some tweaks. Marleau was one of those. Getting another defencemen now, or maybe waiting until the deadline if need to, is the next step.
This team right now, especially in the current era that doesn't see a juggernaut like Chicago or LA or Boston exist anymore, is good enough to win the Cup with some tweaks. Marleau was one of those. Getting another defencemen now, or maybe waiting until the deadline if need to, is the next step.