Mitch Marner: what now?

[Zee]

If I were Dubas, I wouldn?t be calling about any other teams? guys (until someone makes a real run at Marner) because I definitely don?t want other teams calling about my guy. I would not want anyone to stir the normally completely dormant RFA market.

If I call about Rantanen then Rantanen is definitely going to tell Colorado?s GM because he?s going to use my call as leverage. But then the Colorado GM is immediately going to call Marner. And Marner is going to use that against me.  I think Dubas wants things quiet. He doesn?t want to spook anyone.  It?s kinda like peace via mutually assured destruction in case anyone makes the first move.

It?s the kind of thing that once the dam bursts, it could really burst.  And if it didn?t involve Marner, it would be hilarious to watch. I mean if somebody offer-sheeted Marner for 13M, if I?m Dubas, I 100% turn around and offersheet Point for 10.5. Tampa for sure matches, (or we win massively if they don?t) but at least you prevent a Tampa discount.  Then I offersheet Tkachuck and then Rantanen.  And maybe I threaten Carolina for aho to get them to trade me Pesce for a couple of my surplus firsts.

Can work the opposite way too. If Marner's aware Leafs are looking at other guys he could get scared that they'll actually let him walk or trade him and he might be more willing to just sign. Normally guys want to stay where they are.

 

[Kin]

But it's Wednesday and you aren't allowed to officially make an offer until Monday. Leafs could ask for Marner's decision by Sunday with the intent of pursuing someone else like Aho. That's why you talk now.

Do you really still think, after years and years of Free Agent deals somehow coming together at 12:01 on July 1st, that teams and agents don't talk contract details until they're officially allowed to?

 

[Bates]

But it's Wednesday and you aren't allowed to officially make an offer until Monday. Leafs could ask for Marner's decision by Sunday with the intent of pursuing someone else like Aho. That's why you talk now.

Do you really still think, after years and years of Free Agent deals somehow coming together at 12:01 on July 1st, that teams and agents don't talk contract details until they're officially allowed to?

Wait a second you told me a ways back that it doesn't work that way ?

 

[Kin]

But it's Wednesday and you aren't allowed to officially make an offer until Monday. Leafs could ask for Marner's decision by Sunday with the intent of pursuing someone else like Aho. That's why you talk now.

Do you really still think, after years and years of Free Agent deals somehow coming together at 12:01 on July 1st, that teams and agents don't talk contract details until they're officially allowed to?

Wait a second you told me a ways back that it doesn't work that way ?

Where, exactly, do you think I said this?

 

[Bates]

But it's Wednesday and you aren't allowed to officially make an offer until Monday. Leafs could ask for Marner's decision by Sunday with the intent of pursuing someone else like Aho. That's why you talk now.

Do you really still think, after years and years of Free Agent deals somehow coming together at 12:01 on July 1st, that teams and agents don't talk contract details until they're officially allowed to?

Wait a second you told me a ways back that it doesn't work that way ?

Where, exactly, do you think I said this?

Dubas couldn't lead his pitch with contract demands? Or suggestions? In reality though there is no set plan and Dubas can talk to every agent and there's a decent chance they would entertain that call.

 

[Kin]

Dubas couldn't lead his pitch with contract demands?

What I said was almost exactly the opposite of that. I said, pretty clearly, that if Dubas was going to be seen as having serious interest in a prized RFA by their agent that he would have to talk about the specific details of a contract he was willing to offer that player.

 

[Bates]

Dubas couldn't lead his pitch with contract demands?

What I said was almost exactly the opposite of that. I said, pretty clearly, that if Dubas was going to be seen as having serious interest in a prized RFA by their agent that he would have to talk about the specific details of a contract he was willing to offer that player.

Or he could inquire as to what it would take to sign the player.....just as I said in my first post.

 

[Joe S.]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NHL_players_who_have_signed_offer_sheets

Maybe some should take the time to read this very short list of players who signed offer sheets.

You?d think RFA offer sheets were implemented just this season and marner is the first ever RFA in nhl history.

Honestly the talk radio, the articles even the discussion here is kind of ridiculous.

 

[Kin]

Or he could inquire as to what it would take to sign the player.

Right, and then we disagreed about that assertion. I did not say players and teams don't talk about specific details before they're allowed to.

Always happy to help when you need things slowed down.

 

[Zee]

But it's Wednesday and you aren't allowed to officially make an offer until Monday. Leafs could ask for Marner's decision by Sunday with the intent of pursuing someone else like Aho. That's why you talk now.

Do you really still think, after years and years of Free Agent deals somehow coming together at 12:01 on July 1st, that teams and agents don't talk contract details until they're officially allowed to?

They will absolutely talk numbers. Also none of these players live in a vacuum; they know exactly what the Leafs are facing and the decision they have to make regarding Marner. Dubas can be 100% serious with any of the other RFAs and there's no telling when they'll sign. I'll be surprised if all are done on the 1st, some might drag into training camp, including Marner. The talks you have now can be circled back on if it all goes to hell with Marner and similarly with Player X from any other team.

 

[Kin]

They will absolutely talk numbers. Also none of these players live in a vacuum; they know exactly what the Leafs are facing and the decision they have to make regarding Marner.

This may be a minor point but I don't think that's true. I think a lot of these guys do effectively live in a vacuum when it comes to these things. I don't think they're out there listening to any radio shows about cap issues or RFA negotiations around the league. They're not spending time on capfriendly to see who else might be their good comparables. I think a lot of players care exclusively about their own contracts and, when the season ends, leave the negotiations to their reps and head to some lakeside property somewhere.

Dubas can be 100% serious with any of the other RFAs and there's no telling when they'll sign. I'll be surprised if all are done on the 1st, some might drag into training camp, including Marner. The talks you have now can be circled back on if it all goes to hell with Marner and similarly with Player X from any other team.

Dubas can be serious but if he's honest about his intentions then he's going into these conversations telling agents that he probably can't talk any specific numbers as their clients aren't his top priority. You may think that's a valuable building block for some sort of hypothetical meaningful conversation down the road if things with Marner don't work out but considering the twists and turns that exist with trying to sign an RFA in the best of times, I think most agents are going to view that effort as being pretty transparently about covering his own butt as opposed to a genuine interest in their player.

To be honest, this sounds less like a well thought out strategy for Dubas and the Leafs and more like a personal frustration borne out of a desire to see Dubas "win" these negotiations and inventing an imaginary "yeah, well, two can play at this game" sort of thing.

 

[Zee]

They will absolutely talk numbers. Also none of these players live in a vacuum; they know exactly what the Leafs are facing and the decision they have to make regarding Marner.

This may be a minor point but I don't think that's true. I think a lot of these guys do effectively live in a vacuum when it comes to these things. I don't think they're out there listening to any radio shows about cap issues or RFA negotiations around the league. They're not spending time on capfriendly to see who else might be their good comparables. I think a lot of players care exclusively about their own contracts and, when the season ends, leave the negotiations to their reps and head to some lakeside property somewhere.

Dubas can be 100% serious with any of the other RFAs and there's no telling when they'll sign. I'll be surprised if all are done on the 1st, some might drag into training camp, including Marner. The talks you have now can be circled back on if it all goes to hell with Marner and similarly with Player X from any other team.

Dubas can be serious but if he's honest about his intentions then he's going into these conversations he's telling agents that he probably can't talk any specific numbers as their clients aren't his top priority. You may think that's a valuable building block for some sort of hypothetical meaningful conversation down the road if things with Marner don't work out but considering the twists and turns that exist with trying to sign an RFA in the best of times, I think most agents are going to view that effort as being pretty transparently about covering his own butt as opposed to a genuine interest in their player.

However, historically all RFAs generally want to stay with their own teams.  So how serious are they in fielding offers if at all?  The only reason they take calls is to go back to their current team with the leverage of "hey, look I've got team A willing to go this high".  So you can scoff at Dubas not really showing a genuine interest in signing some other RFA, but how genuine is the agent in having his player leave his current team?  It is a 2 way street in the end.  You think Dubas's middling interest in talking numbers to an RFA would be seen as any less genuine than some other GM in a similar situation?  A bunch of teams all have their own players to worry about first, but they keep doors open on all players just in case.  Also, these agents don't just have 1 client, some of them might have players who are also on the Leafs or other teams, they know each other, they know the situation and they act accordingly.  Dubas has shown a willingness to do things differently than GMs before him given the Nylander and Matthews contracts, and agents know this, so if anything I would think that they would take him seriously if he's contacting and leaving doors open like that.  Right now he wants to re-sign Marner, but in a week, who knows where things stand if they can't come to common ground.

 

[Kin]

However, historically all RFAs generally want to stay with their own teams.  So how serious are they in fielding offers if at all?

Probably not? It's one of the reasons why pursuing RFAs is probably a bad use of a GMs time and resources during the off-season.

So you can scoff at Dubas not really showing a genuine interest in signing some other RFA, but how genuine is the agent in having his player leave his current team?  It is a 2 way street in the end.

I'm not sure what is a two way street here but the reality is that if an agent is representing a highly sought after free agent then, no, it's not really an equitable back and forth. Again, look to the Tavares situation. He had teams flying out to practically beg him to sign, Teams didn't demand he audition for them. Anything other than genuine and sincere interest is going to be dismissed.

If your point is that Dubas shouldn't be interested in making an offer if these agents aren't serious about taking it then I agree. That's why he shouldn't really be thinking about other RFA's as an option if for whatever reason he's unable to sign Marner.

You think Dubas's middling interest in talking numbers to an RFA would be seen as any less genuine than some other GM in a similar situation?

No. I think the sort of nonsense "Hey, yeah, we're interested in signing your player but only in the event that we can't sign the player we really want. We can't actually make an offer until we figure out what's happening with Marner which may take weeks or months to resolve but, like, keep us in mind" thing would be dismissed no matter who it was coming from.

 

[Zee]

However, historically all RFAs generally want to stay with their own teams.  So how serious are they in fielding offers if at all?

Probably not? It's one of the reasons why pursuing RFAs is probably a bad use of a GMs time and resources during the off-season.

So you can scoff at Dubas not really showing a genuine interest in signing some other RFA, but how genuine is the agent in having his player leave his current team?  It is a 2 way street in the end.

I'm not sure what is a two way street here but the reality is that if an agent is representing a highly sought after free agent then, no, it's not really an equitable back and forth. Again, look to the Tavares situation. He had teams flying out to practically beg him to sign, Teams didn't demand he audition for them. Anything other than genuine and sincere interest is going to be dismissed.

If your point is that Dubas shouldn't be interested in making an offer if these agents aren't serious about taking it then I agree. That's why he shouldn't really be thinking about other RFA's as an option if for whatever reason he's unable to sign Marner.

You think Dubas's middling interest in talking numbers to an RFA would be seen as any less genuine than some other GM in a similar situation?

No. I think the sort of nonsense "Hey, yeah, we're interested in signing your player but only in the event that we can't sign the player we really want. We can't actually make an offer until we figure out what's happening with Marner which may take weeks or months to resolve but, like, keep us in mind" thing would be dismissed no matter who it was coming from.

I have no idea why you keep bringing up Tavares? That was purely a cash transaction, RFAs are a totally different situation entirely because you're dealing with compensation, and also the blowback of the rest of the league that has generally frowned upon handing out offer sheets. You'll need a GM who doesn't care about that and is willing to do whatever it takes if he truly believes it'll improve his team. Maybe Dubas is that guy and will be seen as more invested in this sort of strategy than some other older recycled GM who has never done offer sheets in the past. At the end of the day, Dubas calling agents on RFAs won't be viewed as any less "serious" as any other GMs putting in that call.

 

[Kin]

I have no idea why you keep bringing up Tavares?

Because regardless of UFA/RFA status, big deal free agents are going to need to be convinced to sign with a club if you really want them. That usually involves being made to feel as if they're a team's top priority and #1 choice, not an afterthought if the thing they really want doesn't come their way or a contingency plan.

Maybe Dubas is that guy and will be seen as more invested in this sort of strategy than some other older recycled GM who has never done offer sheets in the past.

Again, if the suggestion here were that Dubas should aggressively pursue a RFA and make him a big time offer sheet with eye popping numbers, sure. Maybe he'd be seen as more serious than someone else doing that(although most GMs don't take that approach because, again, it's not a very good one).

That's still not what's being discussed. It's the idea that an agent would take any GM seriously if they showed such little interest in a top tier free agent that they weren't even prepared to make a concrete offer when invited to do so.

At the end of the day, Dubas calling agents on RFAs won't be viewed as any less "serious" as any other GMs putting in that call.

Great, I never said he would be. I said, pretty emphatically, that anyone making that call would be dismissed as not being particularly serious about their interest in a player if they weren't prepared to actually make an offer.

 

[Bates]

So yesterday on Leaf's Lunch Lebrun was saying that many agents hate the talk period as every team that is looking for a winger, his example, phones every winger available and goes through the process to see what it would take and then makes a pitch to the one or two that best suits them. I would like to believe him but Nik told me this doesn't happen as agents only talk to folks with serious offers??? I'm back to whete we started, Dubas should be talking to every agent that has a player available on Monday.

 

[Zee]

So yesterday on Leaf's Lunch Lebrun was saying that many agents hate the talk period as every team that is looking for a winger, his example, phones every winger available and goes through the process to see what it would take and then makes a pitch to the one or two that best suits them. I would like to believe him but Nik told me this doesn't happen as agents only talk to folks with serious offers??? I'm back to whete we started, Dubas should be talking to every agent that has a player available on Monday.

Even if it doesn't come to an RFA contract offer it could lead to a team working out a trade for said RFA since that's generally more "acceptable" to the old boys club. So yes, calling everyone to see where they're at is valuable.

 

[Redleaf]

Some people think they know more then the rest of us.  :

 

[sickbeast]

When are teams able to give Marner an offer sheet? July 1st?

 

[Zee]

When are teams able to give Marner an offer sheet? July 1st?

Correct.  All UFAs and RFAs can accept offers on Monday (from teams not originally their own)