NHL WC 2014 - Leafs @ Wings - Jan. 1st, 1:00pm - CBC, SN 590

[Mot the Barber]

Well considering it was a Winter Classic in Detroit, a close game with a narrow victory via shootout (for either team) was the best possible scenario and that's exactly what happened.

I gotta say it was kinda cool and a refreshing change of pace. 

 

[Jalili]

Bozak is good at hockey. I don't care what anyone says.

He's a good player, just entering his prime.

Guy was a huge late bloomer in his college days.

 

[Madferret]

This game has shoot-out written all over it.

 

[leafplasma]

Bozak is good at hockey. I don't care what anyone says.

Yep with all the talk that we should have hung onto Grabs, with Bozak and the cap savings and the fact that he is a pretty complete player and liked in the room, the move is turning out to be a good one.

 

[mr grieves]

jonasTSN1050: That was just the second Leafs road win in the past 12 games.

Don't look now but Leafs have won 3 straight.

Those wins should be asterisked. The Leafs have 45 points. Jersey, Rangers, Ottawa are all within 4 points, have better records over the last ten, and beat the Leafs in the ROW tiebreaker. If they close the gap, all these SO wins won't do the Leafs much good at all.

This makes 10 times they've given up the lead late in the third and let the other team force overtime (conversely, they've done this thrice). If they're to make the playoffs, they will, at some point, need to start closing out games in regulation.

 

[ZBBM]

That was a pretty good game after the first. Hooray for the extra point.

 

[L K]

jonasTSN1050: That was just the second Leafs road win in the past 12 games.

Don't look now but Leafs have won 3 straight.

Those wins should be asterisked. The Leafs have 45 points. Jersey, Rangers, Ottawa are all within 4 points, have better records over the last ten, and beat the Leafs in the ROW tiebreaker. If they close the gap, all these SO wins won't do the Leafs much good at all.

This makes 10 times they've given up the lead late in the third and let the other team force overtime (conversely, they've done this thrice). If they're to make the playoffs, they will, at some point, need to start closing out games in regulation.

They have 47 points. 
They are 5 points up on the Devils and have gained the same number of points over their past 10 games (12-12)
They are 5 points up on the Rangers and have gained 1 MORE point than them over their last 10 games (12-11).
They are 6 points up on the Senators and have gained 1 MORE point than them over their last 10 games (12-11).
They have gained a point on the Rangers and Senators in their last 10 games and have gained as many points as the Devils over their past 10 games.
Philadelphia is a moot point because they aren't competing for a playoff spot against the top 3 teams in the Atlantic.

You are right though.  These shoot-out-wins are dangerous because of the tie-breaker and the Leafs inability to play a complete game/close out a game is concerning.  But in terms of the standings, the Leafs just played an unbelievably bad stretch of hockey (performance and results-wise) and still have a small cushion on the playoffs.

 

[leafplasma]

jonasTSN1050: That was just the second Leafs road win in the past 12 games.

Don't look now but Leafs have won 3 straight.

Those wins should be asterisked. The Leafs have 45 points. Jersey, Rangers, Ottawa are all within 4 points, have better records over the last ten, and beat the Leafs in the ROW tiebreaker. If they close the gap, all these SO wins won't do the Leafs much good at all.

This makes 10 times they've given up the lead late in the third and let the other team force overtime (conversely, they've done this thrice). If they're to make the playoffs, they will, at some point, need to start closing out games in regulation.

We have 47 points now.  I would love to complain about this team and probably should. 10 points of a possible 12 and points in our last 5 games including 3 wins in a row makes me bite my lip just a bit. 

 

[freer]

Good game, excellent atmostsphere. I am expecting Lupul to be suspended a couple of games for his cross check. Bozak was really good. 5 pts in two games, and the shot out winner. Kadri looked awful. He better pick it up or he will be on the fourth line.

 

[bustaheims]

Hope_Smoke: I'd love to sit here & be positive. Reality is, Leafs outshot horribly (again), blew a late lead (again) & now have 2 reg Ws in 21 games

This pretty much describes where I'm at. I like the points. I don't like much else.

 

[Kin]

Those wins should be asterisked.

Why should the Carolina win be asterisked?

 

[Kin]

Hope_Smoke: I'd love to sit here & be positive. Reality is, Leafs outshot horribly (again), blew a late lead (again) & now have 2 reg Ws in 21 games

There's a difference between "being positive" and enjoying a win. If you can't enjoy an exciting win, regardless of how you think they'll do tomorrow, something's off-kilter.

 

[Jalili]

It would be a big deal for the Leafs to pass one of Tampa or Montreal in the standings. Having one of the two wild card spots basically ensures a matchup against Pittsburgh/Boston first round.

I bet they would much rather draw one of Montreal or Tampa in the first round.

 

[mr grieves]

jonasTSN1050: That was just the second Leafs road win in the past 12 games.

Don't look now but Leafs have won 3 straight.

Those wins should be asterisked. The Leafs have 45 points. Jersey, Rangers, Ottawa are all within 4 points, have better records over the last ten, and beat the Leafs in the ROW tiebreaker. If they close the gap, all these SO wins won't do the Leafs much good at all.

This makes 10 times they've given up the lead late in the third and let the other team force overtime (conversely, they've done this thrice). If they're to make the playoffs, they will, at some point, need to start closing out games in regulation.

They have 47 points. 
They are 5 points up on the Devils and have gained the same number of points over their past 10 games (12-12)
They are 5 points up on the Rangers and have gained 1 MORE point than them over their last 10 games (12-11).
They are 6 points up on the Senators and have gained 1 MORE point than them over their last 10 games (12-11).
They have gained a point on the Rangers and Senators in their last 10 games and have gained as many points as the Devils over their past 10 games.
Philadelphia is a moot point because they aren't competing for a playoff spot against the top 3 teams in the Atlantic.

Right you are. NHL.com hadn't updated when I checked. Looks like they're keeping pace with that L pushed out of the L10 and replaced with a win.

You are right though.  These shoot-out-wins are dangerous because of the tie-breaker and the Leafs inability to play a complete game/close out a game is concerning.  But in terms of the standings, the Leafs just played an unbelievably bad stretch of hockey (performance and results-wise) and still have a small cushion on the playoffs.

The first part was the point. The "unbelievably bad stretch" was not, except for the results, very different from the first 15 games, on which they built the cushion. And though some things are looking better -- JvR and Kessel emerging from slumps, depth and defense scoring beginning to show up, a couple performances that look as good as anything they've done last season -- they still aren't playing the last period of games which much in the way of confidence, which is a concerning difference from most of last season.


Edit for another correction: Should've been 11th time this season they've given up a third-period lead. Whoops.

 

[mr grieves]

Those wins should be asterisked.

Why should the Carolina win be asterisked?

"Those" was a poor pronoun choice, not meant to cover the entire set of wins -- just 75% of them.

 

[Scot4bz]

I prefer to deal with current state facts as opposed to the "manufactured" statistics that do not take into account the actual points etc over the entire season to date. My opinion is that anything else is speculative (for what it's worth). I'll just enjoy the win today.

 

[Kin]

"Those" was a poor pronoun choice, not meant to cover the entire set of wins -- just 75% of them.

I still think that's a pretty drastic overrating of the importance of the various tie-breakers

 

[iwas11in67]

Half a season to go.  If the playoffs started today

Pittsburgh vs. Detroit (WC2)
Boston vs. Toronto (WC1)

This is a terrible playoff format.

Overall standings
Pittsburgh - 59 points
Boston - 54 points
Tampa - 50 points
Montreal - 50 points
Toronto - 47 points
Detroit 46 points
Washington 45 points
Philadelphia 44 points

The 7th and 8th place teams get to play each other in the playoffs under this format.  The 5th and 6th place teams have to play the 1st and 2nd place teams.  The 3rd and 4th place teams have to play each other.

We have to get into that third spot in order to avoid Boston or Pitt in round 1. There are many winnable games from now to the Olympic break in February. I agree this format stinks for us this season.

 

[Stickytape]

This is the first time I'm actually looking forward to an HBO 24/7 episode.

 

[mr grieves]

"Those" was a poor pronoun choice, not meant to cover the entire set of wins -- just 75% of them.

I still think that's a pretty drastic overrating of the importance of the various tie-breakers

With respect to the standings, maybe. But it would be a deliciously cruel irony if, after years of whining that the team's inability to win in a shootout has cost them the playoffs, what is appreciated in the GDTs as the team's newfound success in the shootouts ends up costing them the playoffs.

But with respect to what's evidence of a good team playing well, I don't think my concern is a great exaggeration of the importance what a SO win after coughing up a lead means. They're not good. Terrible teams don't get that far, sure. So, by process of elimination, I guess it's the mediocre teams that build their seasons on pity points and the skills competition. And mediocre teams tend not to make the playoffs or, owing to the rarity of being seeded against a terrible team in the postseason, get bounced quickly.