Official Armchair GM Thread 2015-2016

[Kin]

I mean just put yourself in these agents respective shoes. If you're Rielly's agent do you really take a deal that'll be paying him $4.5-5mil (assuming it's backloaded) when he's 27 years old? If the Leafs stance is that they're worried about how potential then I'm demanding a bridge deal. There's basically no downside to it for Rielly's camp if that's Toronto's position.

And pursuant to what I said earlier, given the state the team's in why wouldn't you value flexibility?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's a lot of risk in a short term deal when you play professional sports.  I think that sometimes we forget that signing a 6 year $24mil deal carries a lot more security than a 2 year $7m deal.

Absolutely, and I think that played a big role in the contracts of Klingberg (potential 1-year wonder) and Maatta (a number of injury/health concerns in his young career). But there's a line somewhere and if we're talking about those two options specifically I think Rielly will be comfortable taking that risk.

 

[Kin]

There's a lot of risk in a short term deal when you play professional sports.  I think that sometimes we forget that signing a 6 year $24mil deal carries a lot more security than a 2 year $7m deal.

When we're talking about the kind of money we're talking about it makes way more sense for a player in that situation to insure himself against catastrophic injury and sign the two year deal than it does signing the 6 year deal. The number of players in that sort of position to who, over the course of the 6 years, wouldn't still end up making 24 million or more is probably going to be small enough to not be a huge factor in an agent or player's thinking 

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I mean, I'd say there is a ton of risk in a long-term deal for Rielly since at this point you still don't really know what his offensive ceiling is or isn't.  Sure he has more seasons in the league than Klingberg did, but arguably worse seasons (I don't know the context of Klingberg to really accurately comment too much).  So do you look at Rielly not really significantly increasing his offensive production over his time in the league and say that will work against him?  I think ideally out of a 5th overall pick in his 3rd year you'd like to see more offensive production, even though I think there are valid reasons why it is lower than it might be elsewhere.

Of course there's risk but again, it's just an entirely different story with Klingberg. Rielly's outlook in the NHL has always been that of a top pairing defenceman. I don't think that his 3 seasons in the NHL have really changed that outlook. He hasn't really shown anything to make anyone think that he's going to crash and burn, now it's just trying to deteremine what type of defenceman he'll be. Can he be a Letang/Shattenkirk or more of a Yandle?

I mean just put yourself in these agents respective shoes. If you're Rielly's agent do you really take a deal that'll be paying him $4.5-5mil (assuming it's backloaded) when he's 27 years old? If the Leafs stance is that they're worried about how potential then I'm demanding a bridge deal. There's basically no downside to it for Rielly's camp if that's Toronto's position.

Now look at Klingberg. Your client just came virtually out of nowhere and scored a crap ton of points playing largely with two of the highest scoring players in the NHL. You take a 7-year deal for good money instantly. Imagine Andreas Johnson comes over next season and scores 60 points, how comfortable would you be signing him to a 7-year deal? That's basically the exact position the Stars were in with Klingberg. It's an entirely different type of risk/reward scenario.

Not just Klingberg though, look at all of these comparables to Maata from General Fanager:

Klingberg 7yrs @ $4.25M
Klefbom 7 @ $4.167M
Gardiner 5 @ $4.05M
Josi 7 @ $4M
Fowler 5 @ $4M
Hedman 5 @ $4M
Maatta 6 yrs @ $4.083M
Brodin: 6 yrs @ $4.166M
Larsson: 6 yrs @ $4.166M
Martinez: 6 yrs @ $4M
Carlson: 6 yrs @ $3.966M

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Not just Klingberg though, look at all of these comparables to Maata from General Fanager:

Klingberg 7yrs @ $4.25M
Klefbom 7 @ $4.167M
Gardiner 5 @ $4.05M
Josi 7 @ $4M
Fowler 5 @ $4M
Hedman 5 @ $4M
Maatta 6 yrs @ $4.083M
Brodin: 6 yrs @ $4.166M
Larsson: 6 yrs @ $4.166M
Martinez: 6 yrs @ $4M
Carlson: 6 yrs @ $3.966M

If you're a top-4, 30 point, two-way defenceman then you don't even need to bother negotiating a long-term contract, the work has already been done for you. Most of those guys (Gardiner, Brodin, Larsson, Martinez, Fowler) fit that description.

Others had higher upside and signed for a huge term but they had a limited body of work in the NHL, so they had very little leverage to lean on (Klefbom signed after playing 77 NHL games in 2 seasons, Klingberg signed with 60 NHL games in 1 season).

Some signed their contracts before breaking out big-time, that's Josi. At the time of the deal he very much fit into that 1st category (in fact I'm pretty sure he's the one who originally started that trend), I don't think anyone was expecting him to become a 50-60 point defenceman.

The two outliers left are Hedman and Carlson. Hedman's contract fits squarely into the Tavares category: Just an insane deal that no team in their right mind will even attempt to bring up in contract negotiations with one of their players. I could look into Carlsson's but his deal was signed 5 years ago, so that's a different climate anyway.

So again, I don't really think any of these guys are directly comparable to Rielly. They either don't have his upside, or they don't have 3 good seasons of NHL play under their belt. The only player that I feel checks off those 2 boxes is Dougie Hamilton. I can completely understand if someone maybe questions whether or not Rielly will ever hit his upside, or just how high it is. But if that's the case Rielly is more likely to negotiate a bridge-deal than sell himself short in UFA-eligible seasons.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I feel like Hamilton is the exception and not the rule.

Also consider a lot of those deals came together in a time when most predicted a steadily increasing cap. I wonder if the stagnant cap will play a factor.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I feel like Hamilton is the exception and not the rule.

But the type of player that he is doesn't even fit into that "rule", so he's not an exception to it, he's in a category of his own. The fact that those contracts clearly show that the rule is young, 30-point, two-way defenceman get 5-6 years at $4mil-ish should on its own be enough to explain why I don't think Rielly will get that deal. Why would Morgan Rielly take the same deal as Adam Larsson? I like Larsson, and they were in similar positions when they signed (high draft picks, 3 years of NHL service) but how quickly would the Leafs say no to a trade between them? 2 seconds? 5 seconds?

 

[Kin]

I feel like Hamilton is the exception and not the rule.

Also consider a lot of those deals came together in a time when most predicted a steadily increasing cap. I wonder if the stagnant cap will play a factor.

But doesn't that list of players establish there really isn't a hard and fast rule? You have players of pretty wildly varying skillsets/accomplishments being signed to fill a variety of roles. Like CtB says, there are guys on that list we wouldn't even think about dealing Rielly for and outside of maybe someone like Hedman there's nobody on that list that you can fairly say the team then would have expected to progress into an elite top-pairing guy(which I assume is still the hope with Rielly).

But more to the point, there really only needs to be one or two exceptions to a rule in a situation like this for it simply to become a new salary standard. 

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I'm not saying he takes the same contract and I've said before, slightly south of 5 million seems reasonable to me, call it 4.75. Over the length of the contract that equates to several million more than the guys listed.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Not just Klingberg though, look at all of these comparables to Maata from General Fanager:

Klingberg 7yrs @ $4.25M
Klefbom 7 @ $4.167M
Gardiner 5 @ $4.05M
Josi 7 @ $4M
Fowler 5 @ $4M
Hedman 5 @ $4M
Maatta 6 yrs @ $4.083M
Brodin: 6 yrs @ $4.166M
Larsson: 6 yrs @ $4.166M
Martinez: 6 yrs @ $4M
Carlson: 6 yrs @ $3.966M

If you're a top-4, 30 point, two-way defenceman then you don't even need to bother negotiating a long-term contract, the work has already been done for you. Most of those guys (Gardiner, Brodin, Larsson, Martinez, Fowler) fit that description.

Others had higher upside and signed for a huge term but they had a limited body of work in the NHL, so they had very little leverage to lean on (Klefbom signed after playing 77 NHL games in 2 seasons, Klingberg signed with 60 NHL games in 1 season).

Some signed their contracts before breaking out big-time, that's Josi. At the time of the deal he very much fit into that 1st category (in fact I'm pretty sure he's the one who originally started that trend), I don't think anyone was expecting him to become a 50-60 point defenceman.

The two outliers left are Hedman and Carlson. Hedman's contract fits squarely into the Tavares category: Just an insane deal that no team in their right mind will even attempt to bring up in contract negotiations with one of their players. I could look into Carlsson's but his deal was signed 5 years ago, so that's a different climate anyway.

So again, I don't really think any of these guys are directly comparable to Rielly. They either don't have his upside, or they don't have 3 good seasons of NHL play under their belt. The only player that I feel checks off those 2 boxes is Dougie Hamilton. I can completely understand if someone maybe questions whether or not Rielly will ever hit his upside, or just how high it is. But if that's the case Rielly is more likely to negotiate a bridge-deal than sell himself short in UFA-eligible seasons.

Well I mean I don't think any player is ever going to be directly comparable - you could probably go down that list, including Dougie Hamilton, and make cases for similarities and differences.  I would be surprised if that group plus some others aren't the group that is looked at for comparable deals.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Well I mean I don't think any player is ever going to be directly comparable - you could probably go down that list, including Dougie Hamilton, and make cases for similarities and differences.  I would be surprised if that group plus some others aren't the group that is looked at for comparable deals.

I mean I just did that and found that most of them had a lot more differences than similarities. Rielly's in a unique situation, he's 1) a high draft pick who was projected to be a top-pairing defenceman, 2) didn't reach that peak right out of the gate (as opposed to guys like Doughty/Pietrangelo), and 3) can still be reasonable expected to reach his ceiling. There hasn't been a large history of defencemen like that. And you certainly can't say that about any of those players except Hedman and maybe Klefbom, and I've explained why they aren't great comparables. note: Actually you can't say that about Klefbom either, drafted 19th overall. I was thinking of Nurse.

The fact is there is no real market established for a player like Rielly. He, Lindholm, and Trouba are going to be the ones to set the standard here for players of their abilities. They're going to look at players like Larsson and Brodin and Fowler yes but they're not going to say "that's what we should get", they're going to say "well if that's what they got then we should get that + this because they're in a tier of defenceman below us".

 

[Tigger]

A 2017/18 offering...

FORWARDS
J. Van Riemsdyk ($ 4,250,000) --- N. Kadri ($ 4,500,000) --- M. Marner ($ 925,000)
P. Laine ($ 925,000) --- W. Nylander ($ 894,166) --- Z. Hyman ($ 1,750,000)
N. Soshnikov ($ 736,666) --- A. Matthews ($ 925,000) --- C. Brown ($ 1,750,000)
T. Lindberg ($ 693,333) --- F. Gauthier ($ 863,333) --- L. Komarov ($ 2,950,000)

DEFENCE
M. Rielly ($ 5,000,000) --- V. Hedman ($ 9,750,000)
J. Gardiner ($ 4,050,000) --- N. Zaitsev ($ 2,500,000)
R. Valiev ($ 778,333) --- M. Marincin ($ 2,000,000)

GOAL
1. G ($ 5,000,000) --- 2. G ($ 1,750,000)

Extras
K. Kapanen ($ 894,166) --- T. Dermott ($ 925,000) --- A. Nielsen ($ 700,833)
---------------------------------------------------
2015 NHL Cap Limit: $ 71,400,000
23 Player Roster Cap Used: $ 59,810,830
Cap Hit from Buyout: + $ 1,333,333 one year remains
Cap Retained in Trades : + $ 1,200,000 five years remain
Long Term Injury Reserve: - $ 0 horton not engaged
Cap Space Available : $ 9,055,837

I included Laine and Matthews for fun, and of course Hedman. That is using today's cap limit, unknown goalies, largely positive guesstimates and did I mention Hedman and his cap hit?

 

[Peter D.]

I'd love to see Lamoriello pull what he did with the Devils and trade for a #1 goalie, whether it be at draft with all those picks or throughout the off-season.  Get a young guy in here with loads of potential who can grow with this team.  Whether it be Murray, Vasilevskiy, Subban, one of the Anaheim goalies, etc.  Instill that backbone in place.

 

[mr grieves]

Post-lottery offering:

FORWARDS
JVR (4m) --- Stamkos (9.75m) --- Nylander (.894)
Soshnikov (.736) --- Kadri (4.5m) --- Vesey (.900)
Komarov (2.95m) --- Matthews (.925) --- Marner (.925)
Laich (4.5m) --- Gauthier (.863) --- Brown (.686)

DEFENCE
Rielly (5m) --- Vatanen (4m)
Gardiner (4.05m) --- Zaitsev (.925)
Hunwick (1.2m) --- Marincin (1.5m)

GOAL
J. Bernier (4.15m) --- G2 (3.5)

extras
Harrington (.750) --- C. Greening (2.65m) --- Michalek (4m)

subtractions
Trade Boak at draft for whatever you can get 
Disappear Lupul
Guessing some cheaper D (Carrick) and F prospects to ANA for Vatanen

---------------------------------------------------

2016 NHL Cap Limit: $ 74.400
23 Player Roster Cap Used: $ 63.354
Cap Hit from Buyout(s): + $ 1.333
Cap Retained in Trades : + $ 1.200
Long Term Injury Reserve: 0
Cap Space Available : $ 8.5m roughly

• UFAs off the books in 2017-2018: Laich (4.5m), Michalek (4m), Greening (2.65), Bernier (4.15) = 15.3m, thus $23.8m cap space.
• Coming off in 2018-2019, when you'll need new contracts for Nylander, Marner, and a bunch of other RFAs (Goat, Kapanen, Dermott, Johnson, Soshnikov): Komarov (2.95), JvR (4.25) = $31m cap space
• Plus whatever the cap goes up to ($80m? So +$5.6m). Plus the $5m they get for Horton's LTIR = $41.6m

 

[Kin]

So here's some fun idle speculation. On Marek vs. Wyshinski the other day they talked quite a bit about the Blue Jackets. About how they're very much interested in winning now, that John Davidson very much thinks that this draft is more a top 2 than a top 3 and how they're desperate to get out from under some of their terrible contracts.

So....

Could the Leafs somehow make a trade for #3? What about something like JVR, one of the good but not too good F prospects and Pittsburgh's pick for #3 and Scott Hartnell? Or Jack Johnson?

Then you use #3 either on Pulijarvi or....trade down looking at Nylander or whatever D prospect they like best?

 

[sneakyray]

I'd love for them to trade up but to #3? I think that's a little high.  I was thinking that maybe one of bozak or Gardiner + the later pick might move them up maybe back into the top 15 or top 10 at most.

Love the idea though.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

So here's some fun idle speculation. On Marek vs. Wyshinski the other day they talked quite a bit about the Blue Jackets. About how they're very much interested in winning now, that John Davidson very much thinks that this draft is more a top 2 than a top 3 and how they're desperate to get out from under some of their terrible contracts.

So....

Could the Leafs somehow make a trade for #3? What about something like JVR, one of the good but not too good F prospects and Pittsburgh's pick for #3 and Scott Hartnell? Or Jack Johnson?

Then you use #3 either on Pulijarvi or....trade down looking at Nylander or whatever D prospect they like best?

I think if Columbus was serious about trading their pick then somebody else offers a better deal than the Leafs could put together.

I think if you want to make a trade like that then Calgary is a likelier option. Beyond goaltending I'm not sure what they're after though.

 

[Kin]

I think if Columbus was serious about trading their pick then somebody else offers a better deal than the Leafs could put together.

Maybe. But it's not strictly about making the best value offer. The way they talked about what Columbus would be looking for it would have to:

A) Involve some good pieces that would help a team immediately but aren't too expensive
B) Involve taking bad money back

There are a lot of teams who have good pieces, even good inexpensive pieces, but not many who have good inexpensive pieces like JVR who aren't really important to the team they're on and can eat some bad money. 

 

[rdowdall]

I think if Columbus was serious about trading their pick then somebody else offers a better deal than the Leafs could put together.

Maybe. But it's not strictly about making the best value offer. The way they talked about what Columbus would be looking for it would have to:

A) Involve some good pieces that would help a team immediately but aren't too expensive
B) Involve taking bad money back

There are a lot of teams who have good pieces, even good inexpensive pieces, but not many who have good inexpensive pieces like JVR who aren't really important to the team they're on and can eat some bad money.

Now that would be a master stroke by the management team if they could do it.  It would be nice if they took a dman there.

 

[mr grieves]

I think if Columbus was serious about trading their pick then somebody else offers a better deal than the Leafs could put together.

Maybe. But it's not strictly about making the best value offer. The way they talked about what Columbus would be looking for it would have to:

A) Involve some good pieces that would help a team immediately but aren't too expensive
B) Involve taking bad money back

There are a lot of teams who have good pieces, even good inexpensive pieces, but not many who have good inexpensive pieces like JVR who aren't really important to the team they're on and can eat some bad money.

Now that would be a master stroke by the management team if they could do it.  It would be nice if they took a dman there.

Yeah. It would be. I wonder if Gardiner, Rielly, one of the 3 highly touted Dmen (any one of whom might be better than the preceding 2, but likely not, say, Doughty), and something that emerges from the Leafs current pool would be a decent enough top 4 talent that you don't need a stud, Norris-level 1D back there to contend.

The last core was a failure because it was built from the wing, and its only quality piece on defense wasn't nearly good enough to play the minutes they gave him. Building from center's certainly an improvement at forward (especially when the pieces will likely add up to something much better than Kessel, JvR, and Lupul), but I wonder whether having a defense-by-committee (with lots of puck-moving talent and a great system) rather than one stud will cut it.