Other draft day targets

[Frank E]

Definitely tough. Because I am a bit of a data geek, I put together some charts on goalies being drafted from 1991-2010 (wanted to give the folks 5 years to become established, although folks could argue that isn't enough time). I scraped the data from hockeydb, and made one addition/generalization - grouping goalies into "busts", "backups" and "starters". I tried to keep it common sense and while some folks might argue a couple of the choices, I think it makes the data easier to consume. Have a look: https://public.tableau.com/profile/sean.sullivan4278#!/vizhome/NHLGoalieDraft1991-2010/Story1

The data is interesting. Some conclusions you can draw:

1) Starters coming out of the CHL are mostly drafted in the early rounds (1/2).
2) Starters coming out of Europe are overwhelmingly found in later rounds (5th or later).
3) Batting averages - Chance of drafting a goalie (starter or backup) at different points in the draft

1st/2nd round:
-CHL: 36.5%
-Europe: 45%

3rd/4th round:
-CHL: 21.5%
-Europe: 26%

5th round or later:
-CHL:10.3%
-Europe: 30.8%

Moral of the story: Drafting 11 euro goalies and Matthews needs to be the plan, obviously.

Definitely a data geek.

 

[Al14]

IMO it's harder to acquire a top defense man through trade or UFA.

So, after we draft Matthews as our starting centre, we should draft as many defense men as possible.  We should also look to draft a goaltender or two as well.

 

[Redleaf]

I know there are 2 or 3 goalie prospects ranked higher, but with the familiarity the Hunters have with Parsons, do we see the Leafs draft him, Perhaps with their second 2nd round pick?

Maybe they pick Filip Gustavsson with their second 1st rounder too?

Having 2 highly rated goaltending prospects in the organization seems like a smart way of figuring out the most important position on a hockey team.

https://toomanymenonthesite.com/2016/05/24/london-knights-goalie-tyler-parsons-raising-nhl-draft-value/

 

[Kin]

I don't get the sense that Hunter is going to favour London players to the extent that they'll make reaches like that. Familiarity doesn't mean you think he's better than everyone else.

 

[Redleaf]

I don't get the sense that Hunter is going to favour London players to the extent that they'll make reaches like that. Familiarity doesn't mean you think he's better than everyone else.

No. I agree. I went back to my post and added the idea of drafting Filip Gustavsson too. I can't think of a more important position than goaltending to spend at least 2 high draft picks on. Personally, if we were to assign positions on our picks (I know that is generally not how it works) I'd do this with the top 5 picks..

1a. Center (Matthews)
1b. Goaltender (Gustavsson)
2a. Defenceman (?)
2b. Defenceman (?)
2c. Goaltender (Parsons)

 

[Kin]

It's not something I'd do. I like the idea of identifying the goalie the team likes best of the top prospects and taking him somewhere but they have too many needs to concentrate on the position like that with 2 of their top 4 picks. If they want to add a second goaltending prospect(or third if you include Kasiskuo or whatever his name is) I'd hope they use one of their later round picks to go fishing in Europe.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't get the sense that Hunter is going to favour London players to the extent that they'll make reaches like that. Familiarity doesn't mean you think he's better than everyone else.

I don't know if using the Caps 2nd rounder would be that big of a reach, but it would obviously depend on if the goalies ranked ahead of him are off the board or not. Parsons is probably a mid-3rd rounder, so taking him 15 spots ahead of where he's ranked isn't a particularly uncommon thing once you start getting into the back-half of the 2nd round - though, they can probably wait until their own 3rd rounder (and maybe even New Jersey's) to take him, if they want him. I suspect they'll take one of the higher ranked goalies with Pittsburgh's 1st or their own 2nd, though.

 

[Kin]

I don't get the sense that Hunter is going to favour London players to the extent that they'll make reaches like that. Familiarity doesn't mean you think he's better than everyone else.

I don't know if using the Caps 2nd rounder would be that big of a reach, but it would obviously depend on if the goalies ranked ahead of him are off the board or not. Parsons is probably a mid-3rd rounder, so taking him 15 spots ahead of where he's ranked isn't a particularly uncommon thing once you start getting into the back-half of the 2nd round - though, they can probably wait until their own 3rd rounder (and maybe even New Jersey's) to take him, if they want him. I suspect they'll take one of the higher ranked goalies with Pittsburgh's 1st or their own 2nd, though.

Yeah, when I wrote that post what I was replying to was suggesting the Leafs take him with their 2nd round pick. I agree taking him with the Caps pick wouldn't be a reach.

 

[Frank E]

Kasiskuo or whatever his name is

That'd be Kasimir Kaskisuo there Highlander.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'd be surprised if Parsons jumped into the 2nd round. I think most will realize that a part of his success is due to the team that he plays for.

I wouldn't be surprised if we come away with one of him, Cliff Pu or Victor Mete though in the 3rd-5th rounds.

 

[bustaheims]

It's not something I'd do. I like the idea of identifying the goalie the team likes best of the top prospects and taking him somewhere but they have too many needs to concentrate on the position like that with 2 of their top 4 picks. If they want to add a second goaltending prospect(or third if you include Kasiskuo or whatever his name is) I'd hope they use one of their later round picks to go fishing in Europe.

I get where you're coming from, and I mostly agree with you. I just think, considering the value of goaltending and the unpredictability of goaltending prospects, with the number of picks they have, it might be in their best interest to take a couple of the higher ranked guys AND maybe go fishing in Europe for a goalie. There's obviously some potential playing time issues, but you can leave the European goalie with his European team for a couple years, and the team will have a better idea of the quality of the goalies currently in their system by the time the others graduate from junior.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I get where you're coming from, and I mostly agree with you. I just think, considering the value of goaltending and the unpredictability of goaltending prospects, with the number of picks they have, it might be in their best interest to take a couple of the higher ranked guys AND maybe go fishing in Europe for a goalie. There's obviously some potential playing time issues, but you can leave the European goalie with his European team for a couple years, and the team will have a better idea of the quality of the goalies currently in their system by the time the others graduate from junior.

Yeah I said before that I'd plan to come out of the draft with a goalie from the CHL, NCAA, and Europe. The CHL guy can take over for Bibeau/Sparks in 2 years when we get bored of them on the Marlies, the European guy can come over anywhere from 2-4 years, while the NCAA guy will take 4 years. Hart or Gustavsson should be one of those 3.

 

[Kin]

I get where you're coming from, and I mostly agree with you. I just think, considering the value of goaltending and the unpredictability of goaltending prospects, with the number of picks they have, it might be in their best interest to take a couple of the higher ranked guys AND maybe go fishing in Europe for a goalie. There's obviously some potential playing time issues, but you can leave the European goalie with his European team for a couple years, and the team will have a better idea of the quality of the goalies currently in their system by the time the others graduate from junior.

If this were another year I might agree but between the fact that nobody seems to love the goalies in this particular draft and that the Leafs might have a real shot at adding a good young goalie via teams looking to avoid losing someone in the expansion draft I don't think they need that sort of infusion of goaltending prospects all at once.

 

[bustaheims]

If this were another year I might agree but between the fact that nobody seems to love the goalies in this particular draft and that the Leafs might have a real shot at adding a good young goalie via teams looking to avoid losing someone in the expansion draft I don't think they need that sort of infusion of goaltending prospects all at once.

The possibility of adding a quality young goalie due to a potential expansion draft could be a valid point - depending on what actually happens in terms of expansion, of course. As for nobody seeming to love the goalies in this draft . . . I dunno. Goalies are strange animals, and, as you know, the unheralded types turn into real quality players.

 

[Kin]

If this were another year I might agree but between the fact that nobody seems to love the goalies in this particular draft and that the Leafs might have a real shot at adding a good young goalie via teams looking to avoid losing someone in the expansion draft I don't think they need that sort of infusion of goaltending prospects all at once.

The possibility of adding a quality young goalie due to a potential expansion draft could be a valid point - depending on what actually happens in terms of expansion, of course. As for nobody seeming to love the goalies in this draft . . . I dunno. Goalies are strange animals, and, as you know, the unheralded types turn into real quality players.

Sure, which is why I think you can use some of the later round picks and get roughly the same results. I don't have a problem with adding multiple goalies to the system, I just think that evaluating this group and choosing the guy you like best of the available ones and then doing the same thing again next year is probably a better means of introducing high calibre prospects into the system rather than going with your first choice and second choice in one year or paying too much attention to where you're drafting them from. That way you still add the same level of talent but you have less of an eventual PT issue and can make the choice with less regard to where you're making the choice from.

 

[iwas11in67]

I wonder if we can put together a package to move up in the draft to get Jakob Chychrun. That would be my draft day wish. (other than Mathews of course)

 

[Kin]

I wonder if we can put together a package to move up in the draft to get Jakob Chychrun. That would be my draft day wish. (other than Mathews of course)

It's probably possible(provided Chychrun ends up going 7-10 instead of 4-6) but I'd imagine any such discussion would begin and end with JVR going the other way.

 

[Tigger]

I wonder if we can put together a package to move up in the draft to get Jakob Chychrun. That would be my draft day wish. (other than Mathews of course)

Sergachev is maybe a more likely target, though a good one too.

 

[Frank E]

I wonder if we can put together a package to move up in the draft to get Jakob Chychrun. That would be my draft day wish. (other than Mathews of course)

It's probably possible(provided Chychrun ends up going 7-10 instead of 4-6) but I'd imagine any such discussion would begin and end with JVR going the other way.

Yeah, with Kadri re-signing they're running out high value assets to turn into high picks.

I'm all for the idea of turning JVR into a quality young defenseman, but I'd prefer that guy to be 20-21 years old given the longer learning curve for most young defensemen. 

If that can't happen, then I'm not opposed to JVR being moved for a top 10 pick in June to grab a defenseman.

 

[bustaheims]

Sure, which is why I think you can use some of the later round picks and get roughly the same results. I don't have a problem with adding multiple goalies to the system, I just think that evaluating this group and choosing the guy you like best of the available ones and then doing the same thing again next year is probably a better means of introducing high calibre prospects into the system rather than going with your first choice and second choice in one year or paying too much attention to where you're drafting them from. That way you still add the same level of talent but you have less of an eventual PT issue and can make the choice with less regard to where you're making the choice from.

That's fair, though, I suppose that would depend on how they feel about the potential crop of goalies in next year's draft, who, I imagine, they've done some at least some preliminary scouting on.