Phil Kessel

[Bonsixx]

For Kessel to hit 40 goals, if he continues at his current shot per game pace, he'll need a shooting percentage of 12.3% the rest of the way - above his career numbers but a good 3 percent lower than his career high. For 45, he'll need 14.3% - also below his career high - and, for 50, he'll need 16.3%, which would exceed his career high by almost a full percentage.

I'd say 40 goals is a very reasonable target - one that I'd say he's more than likely to reach. After all, he's done 30+ in 70 games twice in his career already. More than that might be pushing it, but, at the same time, in 39 games with Lupul on the Leafs, Kessel has scored 23 times with a shooting percentage of 17.1%, so, with that in mind, pushing 50 is not out of the question at all.

My big hope is he doesn't "cool off" to last year's pace, but keeps playing at a higher point pace.  If he does that 40+ is a given.

I'm trying to be realistic here, and given that he's gotten off to such a great start with 10 goals already, 40 is within reach.  Let's say he cools off to *only* last year's production for the rest of the 71 games remaining.  He scored 32 in 82 games last season, or 0.39 goals per game.  Take that pace for the next 71 games and he scores an additional 27.7 goals (call it 28), so that gives him 38 on the year.  Very reachable.

Mine (and every Leafs fan hope I assume) would be that he continues his elevated play for most of the rest of the season.  In that case 40+ goals would be a given.

"It was my understanding that there would be no math."

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I have a gambler friend who postulated that Kessel is mentally/psychologically fragile, and predicted he would get on the order of 5 points in 10 games after being shut down in Boston.  Kessel followed that up with 6 points in 4 games...  But now, after Kessel got 0 points last game, my friend is proposing I offer him 15-1 odds against Kessel getting 0 points in the next 6 games.  That is, he wagers say $100 bucks that Kessel goes pointless in 6, and if he does, I pay him $1500.  If Kessel picks up even a single point in the next 6 games, he owes me the $100.

Thoughts?  No wager has been made yet.  I'm tempted to decide how much money I'm willing and able to lose, and then divide by 15 for the money I'll almost inevitably win.

 

[maplesyrup]

Keep your money, dude.

 

[Tigger]

I have a gambler friend who postulated that Kessel is mentally/psychologically fragile, and predicted he would get on the order of 5 points in 10 games after being shut down in Boston.  Kessel followed that up with 6 points in 4 games...  But now, after Kessel got 0 points last game, my friend is proposing I offer him 15-1 odds against Kessel getting 0 points in the next 6 games.  That is, he wagers say $100 bucks that Kessel goes pointless in 6, and if he does, I pay him $1500.  If Kessel picks up even a single point in the next 6 games, he owes me the $100.

Thoughts?  No wager has been made yet.  I'm tempted to decide how much money I'm willing and able to lose, and then divide by 15 for the money I'll almost inevitably win.

I honestly don't see Kessel going pointless in the next 6 games given his ability and the teams they're playing, Columbus, Florida, St. Louis and Ottawa, should get something out of that at least if not against NJ and Boston.

 

[Corn Flake]

I have a gambler friend who postulated that Kessel is mentally/psychologically fragile, and predicted he would get on the order of 5 points in 10 games after being shut down in Boston.  Kessel followed that up with 6 points in 4 games...  But now, after Kessel got 0 points last game, my friend is proposing I offer him 15-1 odds against Kessel getting 0 points in the next 6 games.  That is, he wagers say $100 bucks that Kessel goes pointless in 6, and if he does, I pay him $1500.  If Kessel picks up even a single point in the next 6 games, he owes me the $100.

Thoughts?  No wager has been made yet.  I'm tempted to decide how much money I'm willing and able to lose, and then divide by 15 for the money I'll almost inevitably win.

15:1? Madness.  I would do it at 5:1. 

 

[bustaheims]

I have a gambler friend who postulated that Kessel is mentally/psychologically fragile, and predicted he would get on the order of 5 points in 10 games after being shut down in Boston.  Kessel followed that up with 6 points in 4 games...  But now, after Kessel got 0 points last game, my friend is proposing I offer him 15-1 odds against Kessel getting 0 points in the next 6 games.  That is, he wagers say $100 bucks that Kessel goes pointless in 6, and if he does, I pay him $1500.  If Kessel picks up even a single point in the next 6 games, he owes me the $100.

Thoughts?  No wager has been made yet.  I'm tempted to decide how much money I'm willing and able to lose, and then divide by 15 for the money I'll almost inevitably win.

You'll probably win your money, but, if he's so confident about it, shouldn't he be proposing odds in your favour?

I mean, for all we've ragged on Kessel for his consistency, he has all of three 6+ game pointless streaks over the last 3+ seasons. He will probably have one of those streaks this season, but, I certainly wouldn't put money it happening now.

 

[maplesyrup]

... maybe I'm reading the parameters incorrectly... I'm thinking he registers a point in the next 6 games, FWIW.

 

[Fanatic]

I have a gambler friend who postulated that Kessel is mentally/psychologically fragile, and predicted he would get on the order of 5 points in 10 games after being shut down in Boston.  Kessel followed that up with 6 points in 4 games...  But now, after Kessel got 0 points last game, my friend is proposing I offer him 15-1 odds against Kessel getting 0 points in the next 6 games.  That is, he wagers say $100 bucks that Kessel goes pointless in 6, and if he does, I pay him $1500.  If Kessel picks up even a single point in the next 6 games, he owes me the $100.

Thoughts?  No wager has been made yet.  I'm tempted to decide how much money I'm willing and able to lose, and then divide by 15 for the money I'll almost inevitably win.

I think your friend is right and although the odds suggest you should take that bet, I still think you might lose on Kessel. He does appear mentally/psychologically weak and I don't think he likes the attention he is getting right now. I would not be surprised at all to see him go into a scoring slump over the next 6 games while the spotlight is on the NHL's player of the month. But I hope I am wrong and I hope he scores 4 goals tonight in NJ.

But you know.... on the other hand, for him to just get a single point he just has to be in on, say, a Lupul or Connolly goal once in the next 6 and that seems very likely.

I would take the bet.

Glad that I could help.....  :-\

 

[Tigger]

Where in the world do people get this notion that Kessel will fall apart at any minute. What actual evidence is there to support this?

 

[Pucken Chronic]

Bet the house and car and children and .....uhhhh, just take the bet.

 

[L K]

Where in the world do people get this notion that Kessel will fall apart at any minute. What actual evidence is there to support this?

He rubbed his message off the board.  Proof positive of fragility.

 

[Tigger]

Where in the world do people get this notion that Kessel will fall apart at any minute. What actual evidence is there to support this?

He rubbed his message off the board.  Proof positive of fragility.

Right, how could I forget.

 

[Zee]

I have a gambler friend who postulated that Kessel is mentally/psychologically fragile, and predicted he would get on the order of 5 points in 10 games after being shut down in Boston.  Kessel followed that up with 6 points in 4 games...  But now, after Kessel got 0 points last game, my friend is proposing I offer him 15-1 odds against Kessel getting 0 points in the next 6 games.  That is, he wagers say $100 bucks that Kessel goes pointless in 6, and if he does, I pay him $1500.  If Kessel picks up even a single point in the next 6 games, he owes me the $100.

Thoughts?  No wager has been made yet.  I'm tempted to decide how much money I'm willing and able to lose, and then divide by 15 for the money I'll almost inevitably win.

Take the bet unless his rules state that injuries count.  If Kessel gets injured in the next game and can't play for 6 games it shouldn't count.

 

[Fanatic]

Where in the world do people get this notion that Kessel will fall apart at any minute. What actual evidence is there to support this?

He rubbed his message off the board.  Proof positive of fragility.

Right, how could I forget.

I think more of it comes from his overall demeanour. He is not just low key... he is often no key at all. He does not like the spotlight. The single biggest factor for me is how he plays in Boston. Some guys get traded away or leave on bad terms and they come back and just kill their old team - in your face! But Phil is not like that. He has often struggled badly in Boston and it's not unfair to look at that against the backdrop of whatever else we know about him (shy with the media, prolonged scoring slumps etc) and come to the conclusion that he is meantally weak. Is that such a terrible thing in and of itself?

 

[Tigger]

Where in the world do people get this notion that Kessel will fall apart at any minute. What actual evidence is there to support this?

He rubbed his message off the board.  Proof positive of fragility.

Right, how could I forget.

I think more of it comes from his overall demeanour. He is not just low key... he is often no key at all. He does not like the spotlight. The single biggest factor for me is how he plays in Boston. Some guys get traded away or leave on bad terms and they come back and just kill their old team - in your face! But Phil is not like that. He has often struggled badly in Boston and it's not unfair to look at that against the backdrop of whatever else we know about him (shy with the media, prolonged scoring slumps etc) and come to the conclusion that he is meantally weak. Is that such a terrible thing in and of itself?

In and of itself I think it's largely unknowable from what you're describing. A persons demeanor doesn't necessarily reflect how strong they are mentally.

From Phils play I don't see a reason to suggest he'll suddenly deflate, after not scoring against Boston this year he went on to score 6 points in his next 5 games.

Being shy or gregarious with the media or in general indicates next to nothing to me about the quality of a player and I think the notion of prolonged scoring slumps has been proven to be quite over blown in context.

 

[Number 5]

So....is this the beginning of the regression?

 

[Fanatic]

Kessel is one of the few Leafs to take a shot and have it saved tonight by Brodeur.

 

[Zee]

Kessel got a point and that guy wins the bet.

 

[Fanatic]

Kessel is in a scoring slump.

 

[Kessel Run]

Kessel is one of the few Leafs to take a shot and have it saved tonight by Brodeur.

What a bum!