Phil Kessel

[cw]

Not to sound negative, but I thought for sure Kessel would have slowed down by now. What he and Lupul are doing is absolutely nuts. A quarter of the way into the season and he'd probably be the favourite for the Hart trophy if it was given out right now.

Not wishing to continue to sound negative, I still believe there's a good chance Kessel and Lupul will go through a drop off sometime this season. I don't expect a 15 game goalless streak like last season (though it's possible) but I do expect it is likely they'll hit a dry spell.

As I went through in statistical detail last season, it is quite common for top goal scorers to experience a period of not scoring goals. Many of them experience 7 games or more goalless stretches in a season. And they might have a couple of those back to back.

Kessel is on pace to score 62 goals. Since the lockout, one player has exceeded 56 goals one time: Ovechkin with 65 in '08. The basic odds are that he won't be able to sustain his torrid pace for the next 61 games - because only one person has one time.

If he breaks 50, I think we should be ecstatic. Over 40, most should be delighted - I sure will be. But I'm sure some of the media will whine that he hasn't keep up that crazy pace and we might even see another thread suggesting "regression".

CW, you don't happen to have that statistical detail about other top goal scorers experiencing similar goalless stretches do you?

Couldn't find it. I'm pretty sure what I posted on the old site was it.

 

[maplesyrup]

This year, the player he is reminding me of the most is Martin St. Louis.

I thought about St. Louis too but with St. Louis being a fair bit more diminutive, I stayed away from the comparison. 

 

[cw]

Tried to go this with a couple folks at work last night... Just for fun (and no explanation required)... The player (past or present) Phil Kessel reminds you most of at this point is ____________?

I suppose I should throw what I came up with pout there... Big skates to fill but; Mike Gartner. - Same position, roughly the same size, both world class skills and wheels.

Out of the names mentioned (Hull, St. Louis), I think Gartner is the closest in style and skills. I've compared him to Mogilny in some ways but Alex used a little more finesse to score and the off wing in my opinion. Unlike many great goal scorers, Gartner shot right and played right wing so they also have that in common (though Phil has learned and exploited getting to the left side more this season, as I hoped he would, - more than ever and that is the single biggest difference compared to previous seasons). Therefore, Gartner seems closest of the bunch so far to me.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Tried to go this with a couple folks at work last night... Just for fun (and no explanation required)... The player (past or present) Phil Kessel reminds you most of at this point is ____________?

I suppose I should throw what I came up with pout there... Big skates to fill but; Mike Gartner. - Same position, roughly the same size, both world class skills and wheels.

Out of the names mentioned (Hull, St. Louis), I think Gartner is the closest in style and skills. I've compared him to Mogilny in some ways but Alex used a little more finesse to score and the off wing in my opinion. Unlike many great goal scorers, Gartner shot right and played right wing so they also have that in common (though Phil has learned and exploited getting to the left side more this season, as I hoped he would, - more than ever and that is the single biggest difference compared to previous seasons). Therefore, Gartner seems closest of the bunch so far to me.

A pretty fair comparison.  While no player is going to be a perfect equivalent, and Gartner may hold up as the best, the one minor distinction between Kessel and Gartner (and probably almost any other premier scorer) is that Kessel virtually never takes a slapshot.

 

[cw]

A pretty fair comparison.  While no player is going to be a perfect equivalent, and Gartner may hold up as the best, the one minor distinction between Kessel and Gartner (and probably almost any other premier scorer) is that Kessel virtually never takes a slapshot.

That's a good point.

 

[maplesyrup]

A pretty fair comparison.  While no player is going to be a perfect equivalent, and Gartner may hold up as the best, the one minor distinction between Kessel and Gartner (and probably almost any other premier scorer) is that Kessel virtually never takes a slapshot.

That's a good point.

With Kessel's snap shot (if that's the term the kids are using today) I think I'd be pretty angry with Kessel for trying too many slappers.

 

[pnjunction]

I think you have to give alot of credit to Lupul and even Bozak for Kessel's numbers this year.  Phaneuf has helped out too.

He's still creating chances and goals all on his own, but many of his goals are nice passes and rebounds for tap-ins and obviously for his assists someone else had to bury it.

 

[ZBBM]

A pretty fair comparison.  While no player is going to be a perfect equivalent, and Gartner may hold up as the best, the one minor distinction between Kessel and Gartner (and probably almost any other premier scorer) is that Kessel virtually never takes a slapshot.

That's a good point.

With Kessel's snap shot (if that's the term the kids are using today) I think I'd be pretty angry with Kessel for trying too many slappers.

I know I was whining about it last year (when, indeed, there was need for Kessel to vary it up), but that goal with a minute left last night was as good an example as any of why he can just stick with how he shoots best, thank you.

 

[maplesyrup]

I think you have to give alot of credit to Lupul and even Bozak for Kessel's numbers this year.  Phaneuf has helped out too.

He's still creating chances and goals all on his own, but many of his goals are nice passes and rebounds for tap-ins and obviously for his assists someone else had to bury it.

Lupul for sure... Bozak or Connolly for that matter? Not so much. I think Lupul and Kessel can play with just about anyone. - A big reason why help for line #2 tops my Christmas wish list.

 

[ZBBM]

I think you have to give alot of credit to Lupul and even Bozak for Kessel's numbers this year.  Phaneuf has helped out too.

He's still creating chances and goals all on his own, but many of his goals are nice passes and rebounds for tap-ins and obviously for his assists someone else had to bury it.

Excellent points.  We talk loosely about Kessel carrying the team but of course it's that whole line. 

If (after Grabs and Mac come back) that line with Kulemin can get rolling like they did last year, AND the first line keeps going (big ifs, both), we'd have a team to reckon with.

 

[cw]

A pretty fair comparison.  While no player is going to be a perfect equivalent, and Gartner may hold up as the best, the one minor distinction between Kessel and Gartner (and probably almost any other premier scorer) is that Kessel virtually never takes a slapshot.

That's a good point.

With Kessel's snap shot (if that's the term the kids are using today) I think I'd be pretty angry with Kessel for trying too many slappers.

Too often in golf, we see a guy win a major. And then their coach gets a hold of them and tries to 'improve' them ... that often leads to them falling  back. Arnold Palmer said it took him two years to get used to moving the position of his thumb on the shaft.

I wouldn't change a thing right now. He's scoring at a clip few ever experience.

His shot has something to do with his success, obviously. But I've wondered for sometime if it's just what is commonly observed. No question the quick release has bunches to do with it.

Compared with many of Gartner's early years, the goaltenders and equipment are bigger and better. In my opinion, we don't see as many slapshots scored by a winger blazing down the wing as we used to. A slapshot travels in the straightest trajectory using max speed and power to blow it by the goalie. A thing I've notice a few times is sometimes Kessel's shot dips more than a slapshot, maybe a little like an off speed pitch (though not as much). It stands to reason as it's unlikely to have the same velocity as a slapshot (which is why we don't see snap shots trying to win the hardest (fastest) shot competition at the all star game).

I'm not sure if it's intentional or not. You'd have to ask Kessel - if he'd even discuss it before the end of his career. I realize that he's capable of snapping it to a velocity close to a slapshot or maybe faster than some guys with that whippy flex shaft. But he doesn't seem to always quite get all of it and I've wondered if that has something to do with his success where the trajectory is a little more deceptive than the slapshots many goalies have faced.

Can't say that I could prove the above. But it is something I've wondered about when I've watched him score some of his goals and the goalie misses a shot I thought he should have had. It's happened too many times for me to conclude so many of the NHL goalies give up softies to Kessel.

Just wondered if anyone else has noticed that.

 

[ZBBM]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

 

[cw]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

Sometimes a little, yes. More than I expect.

 

[ZBBM]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

Sometimes a little, yes. More than I expect.

I freely profess my ignorance of hockey physics, but it's possible to do that intentionally?

 

[nutman]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

Sometimes a little, yes. More than I expect.

I wonder if the angle of the stick has anything to do with it.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

Sometimes a little, yes. More than I expect.

cw, who was that guy we heard about years ago whose slapshot defied physics in every conceivable way and actually accelerated after release (or so we were told...)?  ;D

 

[cw]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

Sometimes a little, yes. More than I expect.

I freely profess my ignorance of hockey physics, but it's possible to do that intentionally?

A golfer can take a little something off a seven iron or invoke a 3/4 knock down as opposed to a fuller swing. The less velocity, the more gravity comes into play.

The second Kessel goal last night isn't a perfect example of what I talked about above but it is an illustrative example of him taking a shot with something less than full velocity - kind of half snap/more wrister:
http://www.nhl.com/ice/recap.htm?id=2011020286
4:20 mark of the linked video above.

That trajectory stays pretty low when a bunch of NHLers might be going top shelf. It does seem to dip some. He released it quickly once he decided to shoot but it's not a rocket - very little backswing and a short time to develop flex in his shaft for the wrister. It was almost a flick at the net as opposed to something really forceful. He did benefit from a partial screen on that goal which may have helped fool Ward more than the shot.

Two other guys who enjoyed some success employing the snap shot who played for the Leafs are Franson and Jackman - dmen. Though not always for the same reason - it was a more accurate shot that got the puck to the front of the net. And those shots can really arc downward more than a Phaneuf/McCabe boomer.

 

[cw]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

Sometimes a little, yes. More than I expect.

cw, who was that guy we heard about years ago whose slapshot defied physics in every conceivable way and actually accelerated after release (or so we were told...)?  ;D

lol  ;D

I remember that post but don't recall the poster or player.

 

[ZBBM]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

Sometimes a little, yes. More than I expect.

cw, who was that guy we heard about years ago whose slapshot defied physics in every conceivable way and actually accelerated after release (or so we were told...)?  ;D

lol  ;D

I remember that post but don't recall the poster or player.

What, are you saying that's unpossible? 

Anyway, getting back to dipshots (so to speak) do you guys remember Nieuwy's 2 goals on Lalime in the first period of that game 7 a few years back?  I have a distinct (although perhaps mistaken) recollection that both them dipped and then went, immortally, 5-hole on Mr. Intensity.  I can't remember if they were half-slappers or what.

OTOH I also remember Sundin's 500th, the shorty in OT against Kiprusoff -- that was a half-slapper taken in stride IIRC and it just blew by Kipper.

 

[Omallley]

You're saying his shot dips?  Like a slider?

Sometimes a little, yes. More than I expect.

cw, who was that guy we heard about years ago whose slapshot defied physics in every conceivable way and actually accelerated after release (or so we were told...)?  ;D

lol  ;D

I remember that post but don't recall the poster or player.

Please tell me it was Brendl.