Phil Kessel

[BlueWhiteBlood]

If revenue projections next year make it look like the prorated 2.4 billion the league generated this year might actually grow by 5% or something we could be looking at a 72-75 million dollar cap and then someone like Kessel might really think that he could hit a crazy jackpot in free agency.

I think the issue with Kessel isn't going to be whether or not the Team wants to sign him right away or pay him like a star but rather what star Kessel is going to compare himself to. I mean, looking at that list you posted, I'm struck right away by the Corey Perry comparison. They have remarkably similar PPG over that span and both contracts will strictly be for UFA years. Now, Perry signed at 8.625 so, like you say, Kessel may very well price himself at 8.5 or higher.

That said...if you want me to make the argument that Kessel should get the same as Perry or higher, I can do that(Kessel's younger so the contract would be paying for more prime years). If you want me to make the argument that Kessel should be getting 1.5 million less than Perry I can do that also(Perry won a MVP, is bigger, more physical, can kill penalties, etc). So it'll be interesting to see both how highly Kessel values himself and where Nonis thinks Kessel fits in.

I think it's going to be an interesting negotiation for sure. I mean Stamkos is making 7.5 million and Perry is making 8.6+, so I think we'd have to be happy with an 8 x 7 year deal for Kessel, no?

One thing I hope it's not, is a difficult negotiation, where he actually starts thinking about free agency. But I get the feeling that Kessel isn't the kind of player where money is the end all, be all. Of course that's just a feeling and those are often wrong.

 

[Kin]

I think it's going to be an interesting negotiation for sure. I mean Stamkos is making 7.5 million and Perry is making 8.6+, so I think we'd have to be happy with an 8 x 7 year deal for Kessel, no?

Well, we'd certainly have to be happy with it assuming you mean 8 years/7 AAV but I think it's not legitimate to compare someone like Kessel to someone like Stamkos who signed as a RFA. The League can't have it both ways where the salaries of RFA's are artificially depressed and then try to compare UFA's to RFA's for the purposes of negotiation. Like I said, the main reason Perry strikes me as the best comparison on the list is that they'd both be signing their extensions as pending UFA's.

One thing I hope it's not, is a difficult negotiation, where he actually starts thinking about free agency. But I get the feeling that Kessel isn't the kind of player where money is the end all, be all. Of course that's just a feeling and those are often wrong.

I don't think money has to be the be all and end all for someone to still want to go into a negotiation and make the most that they can. I'm guessing that Kessel and his agent will put their heads together and come up with a number they like and they'll go from there. I'd like to think Kessel would take less money to stay in a good situation but that is sort of contradicted by how he left Boston so I'm not overly confident on that front.

 

[Corn Flake]

One thing I hope it's not, is a difficult negotiation, where he actually starts thinking about free agency. But I get the feeling that Kessel isn't the kind of player where money is the end all, be all. Of course that's just a feeling and those are often wrong.

I agree. His agent will help him remember that money is the be all end all though.  

He seems like the type that is either 100% happy here and will stay or he's just going to say "meh, time to move on" and be gone next year.  I have a feeling it's the former, but that's just my gut.  I was at game 3 when the crowd went right into the "THANK YOU KESSEL" chant as soon as he was on the ice, with Seguin no less.  It was spine tingling'ly awesome. I think he knows how much he's appreciated by the vast majority in Toronto. If he didn't know before that game, he knew then.

 

[Stickytape]

One thing I hope it's not, is a difficult negotiation, where he actually starts thinking about free agency. But I get the feeling that Kessel isn't the kind of player where money is the end all, be all. Of course that's just a feeling and those are often wrong.

I agree. His agent will help him remember that money is the be all end all though.  

He seems like the type that is either 100% happy here and will stay or he's just going to say "meh, time to move on" and be gone next year.  I have a feeling it's the former, but that's just my gut.  I was at game 3 when the crowd went right into the "THANK YOU KESSEL" chant as soon as he was on the ice, with Seguin no less.  It was spine tingling'ly awesome. I think he knows how much he's appreciated by the vast majority in Toronto. If he didn't know before that game, he knew then.

I was out in the square for game 6, and the crowd loved him, too.  I think the only person they cheered harder for was April Reimer.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Well, we'd certainly have to be happy with it assuming you mean 8 years/7 AAV but I think it's not legitimate to compare someone like Kessel to someone like Stamkos who signed as a RFA. The League can't have it both ways where the salaries of RFA's are artificially depressed and then try to compare UFA's to RFA's for the purposes of negotiation. Like I said, the main reason Perry strikes me as the best comparison on the list is that they'd both be signing their extensions as pending UFA's.

I see your point on that, but is Stamkos a "normal RFA"? I mean sure technically, but I find the RFA status goes away for players of that ilk, which are few. Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos and Ovechkin...

But yeah, I still think the Perry comparison is a good one, which probably puts Kessel where I said anyway, based on what you were saying with MVP/ Rocket Richard and all that.

I don't think money has to be the be all and end all for someone to still want to go into a negotiation and make the most that they can. I'm guessing that Kessel and his agent will put their heads together and come up with a number they like and they'll go from there. I'd like to think Kessel would take less money to stay in a good situation but that is sort of contradicted by how he left Boston so I'm not overly confident on that front.

Like Corn Flake says, his agent will most likely just go after as much as he can get, regardless of what Kessel is okay with. But I also feel he'd rather stay with the Leafs and finish what is started there, as opposed to going and starting over someplace else. We'll see... Either way, he's getting more than 7/ year I think.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

He seems like the type that is either 100% happy here and will stay or he's just going to say "meh, time to move on" and be gone next year.  I have a feeling it's the former, but that's just my gut.  I was at game 3 when the crowd went right into the "THANK YOU KESSEL" chant as soon as he was on the ice, with Seguin no less.  It was spine tingling'ly awesome. I think he knows how much he's appreciated by the vast majority in Toronto. If he didn't know before that game, he knew then.

Yeah, I think he is honest when he says he likes it in Toronto, even being a bit shy and all that. I feel he likes his situation.

 

[Kin]

I see your point on that, but is Stamkos a "normal RFA"? I mean sure technically, but I find the RFA status goes away for players of that ilk, which are few. Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos and Ovechkin...

I don't. Sure, players of that quality are going to get a lot of money but the comparison you still have to make is to what they'd get on an open market. If Stamkos was available on the open market as a 21 year old who'd scored 96 goals over the previous two seasons he'd have easily made more than 7.5 a year.

Like Corn Flake says, his agent will most likely just go after as much as he can get, regardless of what Kessel is okay with. But I also feel he'd rather stay with the Leafs and finish what is started there, as opposed to going and starting over someplace else.

I tend to think that negotiations work a little differently in this day and age. A guy like Kessel is mindful of the cap and that the money he gets does mean money that can't be spent elsewhere. So I don't think his conversation with his agent will be "I want to stay in Toronto, so go get me as much money as you can" but rather "I want X number of dollars and I'm happy to stay in Toronto if they give it to me". If, as you say, Kessel's first choice is to stay in Toronto I think it manifests itself just by the fact that he's willing to give them the choice to pay him what he wants.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

What more are you going to learn in 20 games?

Guy's elite. Leafs will be lucky to sign him for less than $8.5m per.

In other words, he'll likely get everything that comes off the books from the last buyouts, plus a decent chunk of what the cap increase.

This. 

Corey Perry money is not unreasonable to ask for.

But those guys are all net front players in a net front league.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I tend to think that negotiations work a little differently in this day and age. A guy like Kessel is mindful of the cap and that the money he gets does mean money that can't be spent elsewhere. So I don't think his conversation with his agent will be "I want to stay in Toronto, so go get me as much money as you can" but rather "I want X number of dollars and I'm happy to stay in Toronto if they give it to me". If, as you say, Kessel's first choice is to stay in Toronto I think it manifests itself just by the fact that he's willing to give them the choice to pay him what he wants.

That's fair. Ultimately, I think the negotiation will be how much he gets between 7.5 and 8.5 AAV, because you would think that players like this are going to get the max 7 years either way, or at least that should be the goal of the signing team. I think he falls somewhere around 7-8 a year, which I think is fair and I don't think the Leafs will even start below 7 a year, personally.

 

[Kin]

That's fair. Ultimately, I think the negotiation will be how much he gets between 7.5 and 8.5 AAV, because you would think that players like this are going to get the max 7 years either way, or at least that should be the goal of the signing team.

Is the max 7 years? I thought it was 8.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't think the Leafs will even start below 7 a year, personally.

I"m sure they'll try, but, I imagine it won't be with much gusto or expectation. I mean, Semin's getting $7M per from Carolina, and Kessel has outproduced him over the past 3 seasons - and quite considerably.

 

[bustaheims]

Is the max 7 years? I thought it was 8.

For re-signing your own players, it is 8. For UFAs changing teams, it's 7.

 

[Kin]

For re-signing your own platers, it is 8.

Typical NHL CBA, always sticking it to the big markets to the benefit of Owen Sound.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Is the max 7 years? I thought it was 8.

For re-signing your own players, it is 8. For UFAs changing teams, it's 7.

Oh, my mistake, I thought it was 7 across the board.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I"m sure they'll try, but, I imagine it won't be with much gusto or expectation. I mean, Semin's getting $7M per from Carolina, and Kessel has outproduced him over the past 3 seasons - and quite considerably.

I'm still scratching my head on that deal, but whatever.

 

[ZBBM]

Although with that said it's pretty amazing that as good as Kessel's been the last three years Stamkos has scored 45 more goals over that time.

Yeah. But I'd like to see a few more games before I pay him like a star.

Nik pretty much covered it for me, below.  It does make a difference, believe it or not, whether he is going to continue to play a bit more like (say) Corey Perry (as described by Nik) or whether it turns out that he can't sustain New Phil over the course of a season.  Hence my suggestion to wait to negotiate with him until we see how it goes over the start of the next season.  More data is never a bad thing.

Now, I'm not arguing that he shouldn't/won't be paid like a star; FWIW he showed me a level I didn't think he had and proved me wrong to that extent.  But whether he gets $8.5M or $6.5M or somewhere in between is important, if nothing else in terms of cap.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Although with that said it's pretty amazing that as good as Kessel's been the last three years Stamkos has scored 45 more goals over that time.

Yeah. But I'd like to see a few more games before I pay him like a star.

Nik pretty much covered it for me, below.  It does make a difference, believe it or not, whether he is going to continue to play a bit more like (say) Corey Perry (as described by Nik) or whether it turns out that he can't sustain New Phil over the course of a season.  Hence my suggestion to wait to negotiate with him until we see how it goes over the start of the next season.  More data is never a bad thing.

Now, I'm not arguing that he shouldn't/won't be paid like a star; FWIW he showed me a level I didn't think he had and proved me wrong to that extent.  But whether he gets $8.5M or $6.5M or somewhere in between is important, if nothing else in terms of cap.

Maybe I'm misreading both, but I don't really think you and Nik are saying the same things here.

 

[bustaheims]

But whether he gets $8.5M or $6.5M or somewhere in between is important, if nothing else in terms of cap.

Sure, but, the realistic difference that we'd see is more like the difference between whether he gets $7.5M or $7.75M. A couple month isn't going to make a significant difference when the Kessel camp can and will point to his production over the past 3 years in comparison to the best forwards in the game.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

But whether he gets $8.5M or $6.5M or somewhere in between is important, if nothing else in terms of cap.

Sure, but, the realistic difference that we'd see is more like the difference between whether he gets $7.5M or $7.75M.

Yeah even if he struggles (for Phil's standards) there's zero chance he gets a dime under $7mil on his next contract.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

But whether he gets $8.5M or $6.5M or somewhere in between is important, if nothing else in terms of cap.

Sure, but, the realistic difference that we'd see is more like the difference between whether he gets $7.5M or $7.75M.

Yeah, I'm firmly in this camp also. He isn't getting what Perry got, but he'll likely get a bit more than Stamkos, as Nik says, he's pending UFA as opposed to RFA (explained above).