Playoff push trade pickups...

[hobarth]

It really burns me that LL had basically 3 years to fortify the Leafs for the playoffs, he did bring in Andersen but he also brought in Marleau and people think he's brilliant, wow. His trade deadline deals were not inspiring and that has a lot to do with why TO hasn't won a playoffs series since LL was anointed GM.

I believe TO has possibly the worst 4th line amongst playoff contenders, Spezza and Simmonds are slow and basically their line lives in TO's zone when they're on the ice. Could TO use better d-men sure but the 8 to 10 minutes those 2 are on the ice is scary, frightening actually. We've seen a few of the Marlies given a chance with the Leafs in pretty well any role and I don't think any of them impressed. Robertson looks interesting and determined but in 8 games he has 1 goal, 12 shots so right now he's not talented enough for a the top 6 role and not big enough for the bottom 6.

TO's depth that Spezza and Simmonds are supposed to augment isn't there so I expect replacing them with players of value is what Dubie wants to do.

Speaking of depth, TO's 3rd line center, Kampf, has 21 pts in 60 games, Mikheyev has 16 points in 31 games, Engvall 22 points in 56 games, these are not the totals a competitive team needs to be competitive, these are the totals one should expect from a 4th line. Their defensive attributes are much appreciated but teams need to score to be successful, I would say there really isn't any offensive depth from this line.

There's a lot of work to be done so right now I'll be surprised at any success TO might have. The tragedy in this is I think TO's best players are in the right times of their careers to ensure a bright future for a properly constructed team. I don't feel that Dubie is totally to blame, covid has made it very difficult for Dubie to do the things he probably would have done. 
 

 

[dappleganger]

What about a trade based around Fleury + Kane for Nylander + Holl (plus whatever, maybe a 1st from TO, cap retention, etc)?

 

[Guilt Trip]

What about a trade based around Fleury + Kane for Nylander + Holl (plus whatever, maybe a 1st from TO, cap retention, etc)?

No. I like Kane, but not at that price.

 

[L K]

It really burns me that LL had basically 3 years to fortify the Leafs for the playoffs, he did bring in Andersen but he also brought in Marleau and people think he's brilliant, wow. His trade deadline deals were not inspiring and that has a lot to do with why TO hasn't won a playoffs series since LL was anointed GM.

I believe TO has possibly the worst 4th line amongst playoff contenders, Spezza and Simmonds are slow and basically their line lives in TO's zone when they're on the ice. Could TO use better d-men sure but the 8 to 10 minutes those 2 are on the ice is scary, frightening actually. We've seen a few of the Marlies given a chance with the Leafs in pretty well any role and I don't think any of them impressed. Robertson looks interesting and determined but in 8 games he has 1 goal, 12 shots so right now he's not talented enough for a the top 6 role and not big enough for the bottom 6.

TO's depth that Spezza and Simmonds are supposed to augment isn't there so I expect replacing them with players of value is what Dubie wants to do.

Speaking of depth, TO's 3rd line center, Kampf, has 21 pts in 60 games, Mikheyev has 16 points in 31 games, Engvall 22 points in 56 games, these are not the totals a competitive team needs to be competitive, these are the totals one should expect from a 4th line. Their defensive attributes are much appreciated but teams need to score to be successful, I would say there really isn't any offensive depth from this line.

There's a lot of work to be done so right now I'll be surprised at any success TO might have. The tragedy in this is I think TO's best players are in the right times of their careers to ensure a bright future for a properly constructed team. I don't feel that Dubie is totally to blame, covid has made it very difficult for Dubie to do the things he probably would have done. 

I think you are really overvaluing what you think production should be out of 3rd and 4th liners:

Mikheyev - 11G 5A 16P in 31GP - 29G 13A 42P in 82GP
Kampf - 8G 13A 21P in 60GP - 11G 18A 29P in 82GP
Engvall - 10G 12A 22P in 56GP - 15G 17A 32P in 82GP

42 points was 127 in forward scoring in 2018-2019 (the last full 82 game season)
32 points was 193 in forward scoring
29 points was 211 in forward scoring

32 NHL teams - 3 forwards per line.  Given that those three are also our defensive unit they are producing at the pace 2nd liners in the case of Mikheyev and Engvall and a high end 3rd liner for Kampf.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think you are really overvaluing what you think production should be out of 3rd and 4th liners:

I was doing a quick look at this but saw your reply before putting the finishing touches on it. That trio of Leafs was basically outscoring every single other 3rd line among East playoff teams except Florida (whose forward depth is absolutely bonkers and basically have three 1st lines) and Tampa (who that trio tied in points with). Honestly a lot of complaints about the team from the fan base come without really putting them in context of how other teams look.

 

[Zee]

What if Lyubushkin was their big add and nothing else is coming?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I will agree about the 4th line though. Simmonds and Spezza simply don't work together, and they haven't even dating back to last season with numerous of different 3rd members. It pains me to say it especially about Spezza but they've been just coasting for a long time now. It's not the teams biggest problem, because it's not as if they're really getting destroyed out there or anything like that, it's just that the Leafs could be putting together a 4th line that provides a lot more value. Either something like Robertson-Engvall-Spezza that has more speed with the first 2 guys and allows Spezza to permanently play on the wing where he belongs, or even by dropping Kampf to 4th line minutes and having a Kerfoot-Nylander duo on a 3rd scoring line.

 

[L K]

I will agree about the 4th line though. Simmonds and Spezza simply don't work together, and they haven't even dating back to last season with numerous of different 3rd members. It pains me to say it especially about Spezza but they've been just coasting for a long time now. It's not the teams biggest problem, because it's not as if they're really getting destroyed out there or anything like that, it's just that the Leafs could be putting together a 4th line that provides a lot more value. Either something like Robertson-Engvall-Spezza that has more speed with the first 2 guys and allows Spezza to permanently play on the wing where he belongs, or even by dropping Kampf to 4th line minutes and having a Kerfoot-Nylander duo on a 3rd scoring line.

The thing for me about Spezza is he still has that world class slap shot.  I'd love to see Spezza playing on a line with say Kerfoot and Kase to see if his production can spike.  Simmonds looks done as a player...that's a shame because I felt like before the COVID break that he was having a decent bounce back season but he has been awful since the return.  Spezza hasn't been much better but I at least still see the value.

"Wayne Train" hasn't done anything to make me see him as a guy who is contributing.

If Lyubushkin is our only acquisition I would consider the deadline a bit of a failure but I would also consider it a better offseason than the last few where we have traded 1st and 2nd round picks for guys who ultimately contributed very little to team success.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If Lyubushkin is our only acquisition I would consider the deadline a bit of a failure but I would also consider it a better offseason than the last few where we have traded 1st and 2nd round picks for guys who ultimately contributed very little to team success.

One way I look at it is that we haven't had the Jake Muzzin that we all know-and-love for any significant stretch of games this season pretty much. He was either on the IR or playing but looking like a shell of his former self. The absolute biggest addition the team can make this season in my opinion is getting the 20/21 Muzzin back. We've managed to have the 5th best record in the league without him all season long. If that Muzzin is who we get when he returns that'll be a massive boost to the team.

The reality though of course is he could come back and still not look right. But at least we're not giving up a 1st rounder for a guy who could make a big impact but doesn't because of injuries like we did last year.

 

[Guilt Trip]

If Lyubushkin is our only acquisition I would consider the deadline a bit of a failure but I would also consider it a better offseason than the last few where we have traded 1st and 2nd round picks for guys who ultimately contributed very little to team success.

One way I look at it is that we haven't had the Jake Muzzin that we all know-and-love for any significant stretch of games this season pretty much. He was either on the IR or playing but looking like a shell of his former self. The absolute biggest addition the team can make this season in my opinion is getting the 20/21 Muzzin back. We've managed to have the 5th best record in the league without him all season long. If that Muzzin is who we get when he returns that'll be a massive boost to the team.

The reality though of course is he could come back and still not look right. But at least we're not giving up a 1st rounder for a guy who could make a big impact but doesn't because of injuries like we did last year.

Just keep him and Holl apart except on the PK. Neither is good at moving the puck out so keeping them apart is better for both. Muzzin will be just fine. Leafs don't need much but if you can improve at any position you do it. The 1st can go for Chychrun or similar. No high prospects or 1sts for Rentals.

 

[hobarth]

I think you are really overvaluing what you think production should be out of 3rd and 4th liners:

I was doing a quick look at this but saw your reply before putting the finishing touches on it. That trio of Leafs was basically outscoring every single other 3rd line among East playoff teams except Florida (whose forward depth is absolutely bonkers and basically have three 1st lines) and Tampa (who that trio tied in points with). Honestly a lot of complaints about the team from the fan base come without really putting them in context of how other teams look.

We have seen year after year that even a reasonably successful defensive TO doesn't advance beyond the 1st round, we should therefore know that what TO has isn't enough to have any kind of playoff success. We've needed more offense every year but instead Dubie keeps wanting to load up on more defense, either d-men or forward. Of course he learned that from the waste, LL.

What we should know is that we don't have enough quality offensive forwards to thrive in the playoffs and one of the 4 key cogs is in serious decline.

I don't try to compare TO to other teams because watching TO I can/could see where TO is lacking and we can't overhaul the d, TO resigned Rielly?, so success has to come from someplace else, outscoring the opposition makes sense. Other teams might have the ability to have such poor offensive stats from their 3rd line but TO isn't one of those other teams.

The context was there. 

 

[Arn]

Yes. The thing this team is missing is offence.

That?s certainly a take.

 

[LeafsDownUnder]

I think you are really overvaluing what you think production should be out of 3rd and 4th liners:

I was doing a quick look at this but saw your reply before putting the finishing touches on it. That trio of Leafs was basically outscoring every single other 3rd line among East playoff teams except Florida (whose forward depth is absolutely bonkers and basically have three 1st lines) and Tampa (who that trio tied in points with). Honestly a lot of complaints about the team from the fan base come without really putting them in context of how other teams look.

We have seen year after year that even a reasonably successful defensive TO doesn't advance beyond the 1st round, we should therefore know that what TO has isn't enough to have any kind of playoff success. We've needed more offense every year but instead Dubie keeps wanting to load up on more defense, either d-men or forward. Of course he learned that from the waste, LL.

What we should know is that we don't have enough quality offensive forwards to thrive in the playoffs and one of the 4 key cogs is in serious decline.

I don't try to compare TO to other teams because watching TO I can/could see where TO is lacking and we can't overhaul the d, TO resigned Rielly?, so success has to come from someplace else, outscoring the opposition makes sense. Other teams might have the ability to have such poor offensive stats from their 3rd line but TO isn't one of those other teams.

The context was there.

19-20 0.952 PPG
20-21 0.892 PPG
21-22 0.966 PPG

sErIoUs DeClInE

 

[Bill_Berg]

That third line blows. Oh they have the old goal of the game so far? Pfff stats.

 

[Deebo]

https://twitter.com/mirtle/status/1505610837792374788

I'm scared.

 

[azzurri63]

Interesting thanks for sharing - but I don?t think the leafs have the assets to pull it off.

What about 2023 1st, 2nd, Niemala, Robertson?

I mean I guess but I think other teams can do better. I?m also tired of trading first round picks.

I wouldn't trade next years first. Although I'm pretty sure we won't finish low in the standings but with Bedard and Mikhov going 1-2 unless it's top 10 protected no way you give up that. Again I don't expect the Leafs to be in that position but you never know. Bedard is elite, generational in my opinion.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I don't mind the moves made this year.  Florida did some crazy payments this year but there wasn't any trade that I wish Dubas did instead of another team based on the costs vs the player except maybe the Fleury for a 2nd...if Fleury would have been willing to come to Toronto which I have never heard that he was open to that.

I don't think that I am not a Nylander hater but for the skill he has shown in the regular season and in the playoffs he is the one Leaf forward that really shies away from physical contact and has cost goals when bailing on being hit or hitting.  Matthews, Tavares, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Kampf, Kase and even Marner are throwing hits now and going in the 'dirty areas'.

So I really LOVE Nylander's talent but looking at other similar talented players you don't see such an avoidance to physical contact.  I am not looking for a Ryan Reaves, Nicholas Deslaurier, Tom Wilson style BTW.  If he simply played like Pastrnak (6'0" 189 lbs) who is the same age and a lighter physique I would be estatic.    I was even looking at Debrincat who is younger than Nylander but has 83 hits in his 63 games to go with his 34 goals.  I then discovered Debrincat is 5'7" and only 160-ish lbs compared to Nylanders 23 goals and 6'0" 202 lbs body.

I was wondering if a trade for JT Miller (I would add Motte too) for Nylander could have worked but I saw it basically suggested on The Athletic with the Leaf beat writers shooting it down as bad for the Leafs because it would only be 2 playoffs for Miller.  I was thinking it would only be 3 more for Nylander so...

Since JT Miller didn't get traded anywhere I question if he was even on the market.

The Leafs going with a d corps of Rielly/Lyubushkin, Giodano/Brodie, Muzzin + whoever (Sandin, Holl, Liljegren, etc) should be solid.

Goaltending might rebound...hopefully.

Wished we maybe got: Fleury, Motte, maybe Rackell and his 12 goals as RW, maybe RHD J Brown as an 8th d for the physical play,

I am glad we didn't get Chiarot (cost WAY to much) and Domi (hasn't played well for years).  Woof!

 

[bustaheims]

I don't think that I am not a Nylander hater but for the skill he has shown in the regular season and in the playoffs he is the one Leaf forward that really shies away from physical contact and has cost goals when bailing on being hit or hitting.  Matthews, Tavares, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Kampf, Kase and even Marner are throwing hits now and going in the 'dirty areas'.

So I really LOVE Nylander's talent but looking at other similar talented players you don't see such an avoidance to physical contact.  I am not looking for a Ryan Reaves, Nicholas Deslaurier, Tom Wilson style BTW.  If he simply played like Pastrnak (6'0" 189 lbs) who is the same age and a lighter physique I would be estatic.    I was even looking at Debrincat who is younger than Nylander but has 83 hits in his 63 games to go with his 34 goals.  I then discovered Debrincat is 5'7" and only 160-ish lbs compared to Nylanders 23 goals and 6'0" 202 lbs body.

Nylander scores a huge portion of his goals from the slot/in front of the net - very much dirty areas. He may not throw hits, but it's not at all accurate to say he's not willing to play tough minutes in difficult areas or bails on being hit. He picks his spots. No sense in taking a hit when there isn't a play to be made.

 

[Britishbulldog]

I don't think that I am not a Nylander hater but for the skill he has shown in the regular season and in the playoffs he is the one Leaf forward that really shies away from physical contact and has cost goals when bailing on being hit or hitting.  Matthews, Tavares, Kerfoot, Mikheyev, Kampf, Kase and even Marner are throwing hits now and going in the 'dirty areas'.

So I really LOVE Nylander's talent but looking at other similar talented players you don't see such an avoidance to physical contact.  I am not looking for a Ryan Reaves, Nicholas Deslaurier, Tom Wilson style BTW.  If he simply played like Pastrnak (6'0" 189 lbs) who is the same age and a lighter physique I would be estatic.    I was even looking at Debrincat who is younger than Nylander but has 83 hits in his 63 games to go with his 34 goals.  I then discovered Debrincat is 5'7" and only 160-ish lbs compared to Nylanders 23 goals and 6'0" 202 lbs body.

Nylander scores a huge portion of his goals from the slot/in front of the net - very much dirty areas. He may not throw hits, but it's not at all accurate to say he's not willing to play tough minutes in difficult areas or bails on being hit. He picks his spots. No sense in taking a hit when there isn't a play to be made.

Maybe I just hate him then...rats! 

 

[Kin]

So I really LOVE Nylander's talent but looking at other similar talented players you don't see such an avoidance to physical contact.  I am not looking for a Ryan Reaves, Nicholas Deslaurier, Tom Wilson style BTW. 

There are, in fact, lots of talented players who likewise have very few hits. Jordan Kyrou is credited with 4 hits on the year, Jack Hughes with 6, Johnny Gaudreau with 8, Patrick Kane with 9, Artemi Panarin 16, etc

Even if hits were a good measurement of toughness(Ryan O'Reilly, 15, Jonathan Toews, 17) Nylander is not out of place for offensively skilled forwards.