Post Mortem

[Kin]

The "David Clarkson signs with the Leafs" thread was actually pretty negative.  I don't think anyone knew it would be this bad, but the reaction was far from positive.

I'm someone who never liked the contract and said so in the above thread but there's a big gap between thinking Clarkson was overpaid, as you're correct to note that a lot of people did, and Clarkson proving to be a complete and utter failure as a competent third line player. That's something that, I think it's fair to say, was not a popular opinion before the season began.

 

[wnc096]

Regarding the defence... that will be tougher to improve.  We do have quite a few two-way defensemen developing (Percy, Finn), and some shutdown types who can actually skate (Granberg, Knodel, MacWilliam).  I'd like to see them fighting it out for some spots while we trade Franson and Gleason (good luck with that).

Obviously there are reasons to be optimistic about some of the young defenders the Leafs have in the system but I think that, looking forward, the Leafs need to be as much about identifying who doesn't fit as who does. Franson and Gleason are obvious points of improvement but I don't know that the kind of improvement we're talking about can be limited to replacing #4 and #5 guys like those two. I think the Leafs are going to have to seriously examine whether or not a top 4 of Gunnar, Phaneuf, Rielly and Gardiner is workable going forward.

I think it's more the forwards and the system than the defence.  the thing that i noticed the most is that forwards rarely backchecked this year....they just would hang around the blue line in the defensive zone and wait for the defence to hopefully turn the puck over and rush up ice.

Kessel in my opinion was the worst cherry picker I've seen since Bure, (still think he's an awesome player though)

I mean a colorado team that ices this defence:

Erik Johnson
Jan Hejda
Tyson Barrie
Andre Benoit
Nick Holden
Cory Sarich

has given up 40 goals less than Toronto...its got to be more than only the defensemen

 

[Stickytape]

The "David Clarkson signs with the Leafs" thread was actually pretty negative.  I don't think anyone knew it would be this bad, but the reaction was far from positive.

I'm someone who never liked the contract and said so in the above thread but there's a big gap between thinking Clarkson was overpaid, as you're correct to note that a lot of people did, and Clarkson proving to be a complete and utter failure as a competent third line player. That's something that, I think it's fair to say, was not a popular opinion before the season began.

Mm, fair point.

 

[Kin]

I mean a colorado team that ices this defence:

Erik Johnson
Jan Hejda
Tyson Barrie
Andre Benoit
Nick Holden
Cory Sarich

has given up 40 goals less than Toronto...its got to be more than only the defensemen

I didn't watch a ton of Colorado games this year but at a glance I don't know that I buy that you're talking about a group that we should thumb our noses at. It's a mix of young guys and veterans and includes a former #1 pick and a guy in Sarich that was an important part of a cup winner. On name recognition those guys aren't anything to write home about but I wouldn't rule it out that they were 40 goals better than the Leafs group either.

 

[hap_leaf]

I mean a colorado team that ices this defence:

Erik Johnson
Jan Hejda
Tyson Barrie
Andre Benoit
Nick Holden
Cory Sarich

has given up 40 goals less than Toronto...its got to be more than only the defensemen

I didn't watch a ton of Colorado games this year but at a glance I don't know that I buy that you're talking about a group that we should thumb our noses at. It's a mix of young guys and veterans and includes a former #1 pick and a guy in Sarich that was an important part of a cup winner. On name recognition those guys aren't anything to write home about but I wouldn't rule it out that they were 40 goals better than the Leafs group either.

The Av's are an interesting team and I think they have a bit of growth to achieve there as a team.  Their Corsi Close is not what you would expect for their place in the standings.  In fact they are down with the Leafs.  Therefore a long shot for playoff success?

http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2014/03/25/avalanche-still-among-top-teams-despite-poor-corsi-fancystat-numbers/17271/

 

[TML fan]

It's hard to judge this defence corps because of how awful they were at playing Carlyle's awful system. They are not as bad as they looked this season.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I mean a colorado team that ices this defence:

Erik Johnson
Jan Hejda
Tyson Barrie
Andre Benoit
Nick Holden
Cory Sarich

has given up 40 goals less than Toronto...its got to be more than only the defensemen

I didn't watch a ton of Colorado games this year but at a glance I don't know that I buy that you're talking about a group that we should thumb our noses at. It's a mix of young guys and veterans and includes a former #1 pick and a guy in Sarich that was an important part of a cup winner. On name recognition those guys aren't anything to write home about but I wouldn't rule it out that they were 40 goals better than the Leafs group either.

The Av's are an interesting team and I think they have a bit of growth to achieve there as a team.  Their Corsi Close is not what you would expect for their place in the standings.  In fact they are down with the Leafs.  Therefore a long shot for playoff success?

http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2014/03/25/avalanche-still-among-top-teams-despite-poor-corsi-fancystat-numbers/17271/

Makes Colorado a team to watch for an expected regression.  Similar sort of thing happened to them in 2009-10 where they looked on pace for a 100+ point season through January, with a young team that was initially predicted to finish near the bottom of the conference - but their underlying numbers were very poor.  Through the first 5 months, Craig Anderson gave them even-strength SV% of .930 ish, but then from the end of January through to the end of the regular season, that dipped to .915 and the Avs squeaked in as the 8th seed in the West.  This season their even-strength SV% is .930.

Now they won't necessarily regress - they've got a very talented roster offensively, they could improve their play possession-wise, etc.  But Varlamov is undoubtedly having a Vezina-calibre year for them, and I wouldn't really expect that to repeat itself next season.  These types of seasons are rare for a goalie to duplicate.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Out of curiosity, has a team, in recent history, gone from 3d in the conference to out of the playoffs in a 15 game stretch to end a season? I just can't remember seeing this before.

Personally, I find this to be a much more embarrassing collapse than the 10 minutes of games 7 - this is honestly one for the ages it would seem... Unless anyone remembers something worse to any other team.

I haven't checked this, but heard one of our fine radio personalities say that the Leafs were passed by 8 teams in the standings during the 8-game streak of futility.  Ouch.

 

[wnc096]

Out of curiosity, has a team, in recent history, gone from 3d in the conference to out of the playoffs in a 15 game stretch to end a season? I just can't remember seeing this before.

Personally, I find this to be a much more embarrassing collapse than the 10 minutes of games 7 - this is honestly one for the ages it would seem... Unless anyone remembers something worse to any other team.

I haven't checked this, but heard one of our fine radio personalities say that the Leafs were passed by 8 teams in the standings during the 8-game streak of futility.  Ouch.

This collapse rivals the 2011 Redsox.  Blew a 9 game lead on Sept 04 (where they had a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs) finishing with a 7-20 record, and were passed by the Devil Rays on the last day of the season.  Silver lining they won the world series 2 years later.

So there's hope??

At least the Leafs didn't wait till the last day of the season...

 

[Coco-puffs]

I mean a colorado team that ices this defence:

Erik Johnson
Jan Hejda
Tyson Barrie
Andre Benoit
Nick Holden
Cory Sarich

has given up 40 goals less than Toronto...its got to be more than only the defensemen

I didn't watch a ton of Colorado games this year but at a glance I don't know that I buy that you're talking about a group that we should thumb our noses at. It's a mix of young guys and veterans and includes a former #1 pick and a guy in Sarich that was an important part of a cup winner. On name recognition those guys aren't anything to write home about but I wouldn't rule it out that they were 40 goals better than the Leafs group either.

The Av's are an interesting team and I think they have a bit of growth to achieve there as a team.  Their Corsi Close is not what you would expect for their place in the standings.  In fact they are down with the Leafs.  Therefore a long shot for playoff success?

http://blogs.denverpost.com/avs/2014/03/25/avalanche-still-among-top-teams-despite-poor-corsi-fancystat-numbers/17271/

Makes Colorado a team to watch for an expected regression.  Similar sort of thing happened to them in 2009-10 where they looked on pace for a 100+ point season through January, with a young team that was initially predicted to finish near the bottom of the conference - but their underlying numbers were very poor.  Through the first 5 months, Craig Anderson gave them even-strength SV% of .930 ish, but then from the end of January through to the end of the regular season, that dipped to .915 and the Avs squeaked in as the 8th seed in the West.  This season their even-strength SV% is .930.

Now they won't necessarily regress - they've got a very talented roster offensively, they could improve their play possession-wise, etc.  But Varlamov is undoubtedly having a Vezina-calibre year for them, and I wouldn't really expect that to repeat itself next season.  These types of seasons are rare for a goalie to duplicate.

Agreed Potvin.  However, if the Leafs had a Corsi% of 47.3% we'd probably be in the same situation as the Avs.  Ours is quite a bit worse at 42.1%... Leaf fans that value Advanced stats would be thrilled to see an improvement of 5.2%!

 

[Coco-puffs]

Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace. 

So...be better then?

Well if you want to oversimplify it, sure.  Run a system that doesn't collapse in front of the net and allow point shots freely.  Spend money on improving the defense instead of adding forwards.  Bring back a physical bottom 6 who don't go 90 games without scoring a goal.

I don't disagree with the last two points. They need significantly better defenders and bottom six forwards. I question the extent to which those are "fixable" in any real sense this off-season but I can't disagree with better team = better results.

Well... the bottom six forwards COULD have been better this season had Carlyle not dressed Orr and McClaren so much this year.  Holland and Ashton should have been fixtures.  Hopefully firing Carlyle and bringing in a coach who will actually play younger players in that role will help.  If we can get Komarov back, that will also help.  It seems like our team speed was really impacted by losing him, Frattin, MacArthur, and Grabovski.  Raymond was the only guy with speed that came in. 

Regarding the defence... that will be tougher to improve.  We do have quite a few two-way defensemen developing (Percy, Finn), and some shutdown types who can actually skate (Granberg, Knodel, MacWilliam).  I'd like to see them fighting it out for some spots while we trade Franson and Gleason (good luck with that).

Teams that rely on heroic goaltending to win games have a hard time maintaining a good pace. 

So...be better then?

Well if you want to oversimplify it, sure.  Run a system that doesn't collapse in front of the net and allow point shots freely.  Spend money on improving the defense instead of adding forwards.  Bring back a physical bottom 6 who don't go 90 games without scoring a goal. 

Just so everyone knows Ashton has not scored a goal in 47 games in the NHL. He is half way to Orr current record. Just saying. (Stir the Pot) .

As for Gleason, I thought he was one of the better D-men we have had since coming to TO. I Know everyone here is high on Gardiner. Even know he can skate out of problems, he causes just as many with stupid plays.

Yeah... I'm sure it doesn't help that Ashton has played on the 4th line almost exclusively with an average of 6 mins of icetime.  He's also got 16 Goals in 24 games this season in the AHL.  Colton Orr probably wouldn't score half that many in a full AHL season.

As for Gleason.... he's a -13 in 37 GP for the Leafs.  He also has the worst Corsi% of all Leafs Defencemen (39.3%).  38 Goals Against in 37 GP (28 5on5, 10 Short-Handed).  I like his physical play, and that is about it.  He's essentially Mike Komisarek 2.0 for us at this point.

 

[slapshot]

I would rejig the roster as follows:

JVR Bozak Kessel (for another go around)
Lupul Kadri ___________ (new legit top six two-way winger, not Kuli)
___________ Bolland Clarkson (not sure about left side, would like an upgrade on Mason or Kuli)
Kuli McClement Bodie would be okay.

______________ and Gardiner
Rielly Phanuef
____________ and ___________ ?? (tough stay at home and a puck moving skater)

Bernier and _________________?

 

[Highlander]

gleason is a waste of time, I saw him get undressed in Phoenix this winter and it was bad.  We need MacWilliam or Nodule or even Percy whom looks poised beyong his years with the Marlies.

 

[bakeapples]

gleason is a waste of time, I saw him get undressed in Phoenix this winter and it was bad.  We need MacWilliam or Nodule or even Percy whom looks poised beyong his years with the Marlies.

Fat?

 

[Scot4bz]

The team should have stayed at Maple Leaf Gardens - home of the Garden Brothers Circus. A circus on the ice and definately many clowns.

And rip the "C" off Phaneuf's jersey. One of the worst captains in franchise history.

It was really a total team collapse and I think we are actually better than what the end result was (my eternal Leaf fan hope showing through). A coaching change is a must and it needs to be someone who is not afraid to sit out some players if they are not performing. We also need a coach that will make changes to the system/game plan when it is clearly not working. Carlyle surely must have had a few concussions this season after running into the same brick wall over and over again.

I would just like a little more accountability.

 

[Redleaf]

The team should have stayed at Maple Leaf Gardens - home of the Garden Brothers Circus. A circus on the ice and definately many clowns.

And rip the "C" off Phaneuf's jersey. One of the worst captains in franchise history.

It was really a total team collapse and I think we are actually better than what the end result was (my eternal Leaf fan hope showing through). A coaching change is a must and it needs to be someone who is not afraid to sit out some players if they are not performing. We also need a coach that will make changes to the system/game plan when it is clearly not working. Carlyle surely must have had a few concussions this season after running into the same brick wall over and over again.

I would just like a little more accountability.

There has been more and more talk these days about Phaneuf wearing the 'C', and whether or not it should be given to someone else. Perhaps there's something to this.

I wonder which player is more deserving of it on this team? I'd probably say Lupul, but I have a feeling he may get traded this off season. There's Reilly, but he's too young. Kessel and JVR don't seem like the right fits. Bozak? Someone new coming in next season? Just run with three Assistant captains for a season or two?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Why would Rielly be one of the first names brought up?

Sounds like you're just throwing out names of the top scorers and our top young player.

 

[AvroArrow]

There has been more and more talk these days about Phaneuf wearing the 'C', and whether or not it should be given to someone else. Perhaps there's something to this.

I wonder which player is more deserving of it on this team? I'd probably say Lupul, but I have a feeling he may get traded this off season. There's Reilly, but he's too young. Kessel and JVR don't seem like the right fits. Bozak? Someone new coming in next season? Just run with three Assistant captains for a season or two?

After trading Lupul, sign Callahan and slap the C on him?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

sign Callahan and slap the C on him?

I think I'd honestly have to take a break from this team if that happened. Callahan would be Clarkson 2.0.

 

[Redleaf]

Why would Rielly be one of the first names brought up?

Sounds like you're just throwing out names of the top scorers and our top young player.

I actually heard his name thrown out for the captaincy by someone in the media. I think its way too early to consider him right now, but down the road...