Tavares

[bustaheims]

What's to stop the Leafs from signing Tavares to only $10M/year, and giving his wife a job at $5M/year?  ;D

The guy who just got elected to the HOF.

Well, mostly the CBA his second-in-command negotiated, but, yeah.

 

[L K]

The Leafs, Sharks, and Islanders are considered the three favourites for Tavares and there's really not that much of a difference between the three there.

And that 300K would largely be negated by sponsorship opportunities in Toronto I would imagine.

 

[Zee]

The Leafs, Sharks, and Islanders are considered the three favourites for Tavares and there's really not that much of a difference between the three there.

How are they giving odds on who the favorites are if nobody is really talking?  Just guesswork?

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm starting to think the Leafs actually have a good shot here. Of the three, I think they've got the best outlook for the next five years, and that's got to be attractive.

 

[Kin]

I'm starting to think the Leafs actually have a good shot here. Of the three, I think they've got the best outlook for the next five years, and that's got to be attractive.

Eh. Personally I'd still give that edge to the Sharks.

 

[Zee]

I thought this would be over a long time ago and we'd hear he's going back to the Islanders, so I'm allowing myself to get excited now.  As a lifelong Leafs fan i'm fully prepared to have my heart ripped out and stepped on, but it is what it is.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Eh. Personally I'd still give that edge to the Sharks.

Goaltending is about even. Both average starters.

Burns and Vlasic give the Sharks the edge on defence. Although Vlasic's the type of player whose play could start to go downhill in the next couple of years (if it hasn't already, his CF% was below 50 the past 2 seasons). He's just starting an 8-year deal with a $7mil AAV. Could be looking at the next Seabrook there.

At forward I'd take Matthews/Nylander/Marner/Kadri over Pavelski/Couture/Kane/Thornton. I think as you go further down the depth chart too the advantage stays with the Leafs.

Both teams will be very top-heavy cap-wise. The Sharks' core is significantly older though. Couture and Pavelski are both UFAs after next season too and I think it'll be tougher for them to re-sign those guys than it will be for us to re-sign our RFAs. They might be forced to lose one of them.

I dunno, I'd go Toronto here.

 

[MadMonk]

The two worst scenarios for the Leafs are Tampa or Boston.  He'll probably go to Tampa or Boston.

 

[princedpw]

The two worst scenarios for the Leafs are Tampa or Boston.  He'll probably go to Tampa or Boston.

This is the way I handle my Leafs expectations too.

 

[Zee]

The two worst scenarios for the Leafs are Tampa or Boston.  He'll probably go to Tampa or Boston.

Yeah, that'll be picking up my heart and throwing it in the blender afterwards.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

How do Tampa and Boston fit Tavares under the cap? 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

How do Tampa and Boston fit Tavares under the cap? 

It'd probably require Tavares (and Kucherov for next year) to take a Stamkos-like "discount" in Tampa, but if they dump Callahan's contract and then trade Tyler Johnson that'd clear up a lot of space.

For Boston I think the prevailing theory is that if they get Tavares they'd have to trade Krejci, which seems doable.

 

[Kin]

Goaltending is about even. Both average starters.

Burns and Vlasic give the Sharks the edge on defence. Although Vlasic's the type of player whose play could start to go downhill in the next couple of years (if it hasn't already, his CF% was below 50 the past 2 seasons). He's just starting an 8-year deal with a $7mil AAV. Could be looking at the next Seabrook there.

At forward I'd take Matthews/Nylander/Marner/Kadri over Pavelski/Couture/Kane/Thornton. I think as you go further down the depth chart too the advantage stays with the Leafs.

Both teams will be very top-heavy cap-wise. The Sharks' core is significantly older though. Couture and Pavelski are both UFAs after next season too and I think it'll be tougher for them to re-sign those guys than it will be for us to re-sign our RFAs. They might be forced to lose one of them.

I dunno, I'd go Toronto here.

From what I'm reading, a Couture extension is just about done. Obviously a Tavares contract could throw a spanner in those works but that seems relatively safe.

I guess where we disagree primarily is with regards to the relative importance of the defense and the forward depth of each team. I think I'd take Hertl/Tierney/Donskoi/Meier and the rest over Kapanen/Hyman/Brown/Johnsson.

A Tavares-led Leafs, I think, you'd have to say were one of the more top-heavy talented teams and would be excellent contenders if they can figure the defense out. Him on the Sharks, however, and I think you'd be hard pressed to find a more balanced and deeper contender in the immediate sense. So while I think things might generally be rosier for the Leafs five years from now, if I had to guess who'd be more likely to win within those 5 years...yeah I'd still say San Jose.

 

[mr grieves]

Eh. Personally I'd still give that edge to the Sharks.

Goaltending is about even. Both average starters.

Burns and Vlasic give the Sharks the edge on defence. Although Vlasic's the type of player whose play could start to go downhill in the next couple of years (if it hasn't already, his CF% was below 50 the past 2 seasons). He's just starting an 8-year deal with a $7mil AAV. Could be looking at the next Seabrook there.

At forward I'd take Matthews/Nylander/Marner/Kadri over Pavelski/Couture/Kane/Thornton. I think as you go further down the depth chart too the advantage stays with the Leafs.

Both teams will be very top-heavy cap-wise. The Sharks' core is significantly older though. Couture and Pavelski are both UFAs after next season too and I think it'll be tougher for them to re-sign those guys than it will be for us to re-sign our RFAs. They might be forced to lose one of them.

I dunno, I'd go Toronto here.

Along those lines, I think I agree... but, if weighing the teams and wondering what's in that big binder he had prepared, I'd include a few other elements that teams might be pitching him: AHL team success/ prospect pipeline, NHL team's recent success, and resumes of the coaching staff. There I think it's advantage Leafs, Sharks, and draw.

I guess it might come down to whether JT's thinking of his chances in years 1 and 2 or 5, 6, and 7.

And there's the chance that back-channel lobbying comes into play, so I'd consider where he has friends / former teammates / players he might listen to.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

One pretty big thing in San Jose's favour in terms of who will have more success in the next few years is the playoff format. The Leafs will continue to have to go through Tampa and Boston to get to the conference finals, while San Jose is in arguably the easiest division in the league.

 

[Bill_Berg]

The Leafs should be in the mix for the full 7 years of a Tavares contract. SJ may have the edge now, but if you total odds on all 7 seasons, the Leafs have the edge. I mean assuming there are no changes anywhere in the next 7 years.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Goaltending is about even. Both average starters.

Burns and Vlasic give the Sharks the edge on defence. Although Vlasic's the type of player whose play could start to go downhill in the next couple of years (if it hasn't already, his CF% was below 50 the past 2 seasons). He's just starting an 8-year deal with a $7mil AAV. Could be looking at the next Seabrook there.

At forward I'd take Matthews/Nylander/Marner/Kadri over Pavelski/Couture/Kane/Thornton. I think as you go further down the depth chart too the advantage stays with the Leafs.

Both teams will be very top-heavy cap-wise. The Sharks' core is significantly older though. Couture and Pavelski are both UFAs after next season too and I think it'll be tougher for them to re-sign those guys than it will be for us to re-sign our RFAs. They might be forced to lose one of them.

I dunno, I'd go Toronto here.

From what I'm reading, a Couture extension is just about done. Obviously a Tavares contract could throw a spanner in those works but that seems relatively safe.

I guess where we disagree primarily is with regards to the relative importance of the defense and the forward depth of each team. I think I'd take Hertl/Tierney/Donskoi/Meier and the rest over Kapanen/Hyman/Brown/Johnsson.

A Tavares-led Leafs, I think, you'd have to say were one of the more top-heavy talented teams and would be excellent contenders if they can figure the defense out. Him on the Sharks, however, and I think you'd be hard pressed to find a more balanced and deeper contender in the immediate sense. So while I think things might generally be rosier for the Leafs five years from now, if I had to guess who'd be more likely to win within those 5 years...yeah I'd still say San Jose.

For the next year or two, yes SJ probably has a better shot.  But Pavelski is 33 and Thorton is about to turn 39.  Their window is 2 years and that's not giving you a ton of chances to win a championship considering the best team doesn't always win (injuries/luck/hot&cold goaltending etc).  The Leafs are approaching a 5+ year window of contending, based on their star players all being 22 and under.  They may be a step behind today, but that's a whole lot more opportunities to go all the way.

 

[Kin]

For the next year or two, yes SJ probably has a better shot.  But Pavelski is 33 and Thorton is about to turn 39.  Their window is 2 years and that's not giving you a ton of chances to win a championship considering the best team doesn't always win (injuries/luck/hot&cold goaltending etc).  The Leafs are approaching a 5+ year window of contending, based on their star players all being 22 and under.  They may be a step behind today, but that's a whole lot more opportunities to go all the way.

The other way to look at that is that they get to take some pretty healthy shots with the current group and then have a reasonable amount of cap money coming off the books to load up again.

Again, like I said, I think the greater probability of immediate contender-ness, especially when combined with what CtB said about the division layout, favours San Jose. Especially given Tavares is probably a little tired of hearing about his team could contend with just a tweak or two.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Interesting counter-point from Dom at the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/410179/2018/06/27/by-the-numbers-analyzing-the-impact-john-tavares-would-have-on-the-six-teams-vying-for-his-services/

By his game-score metric, the Leafs are equal to the Sharks WITH Tavares.

San Jose Sharks
2018 Record: 45-27-10 (11th)
Cap Space: $18.8M
Without Tavares: Top 10 Team (97 points)
With Tavares: Dark Horse (102 points)

Toronto Maple Leafs
2018 Record: 49-26-7 (7th)
Cap Space: $24.7M
Without Tavares: Dark Horse (102 points)
With Tavares: Cup Contender (106 points)

The easier division is certainly a big thing in SJ's favour.  As would be, for me, living in the Bay Area. 

 

[Bullfrog]

Eh. Personally I'd still give that edge to the Sharks.

Goaltending is about even. Both average starters.

Burns and Vlasic give the Sharks the edge on defence. Although Vlasic's the type of player whose play could start to go downhill in the next couple of years (if it hasn't already, his CF% was below 50 the past 2 seasons). He's just starting an 8-year deal with a $7mil AAV. Could be looking at the next Seabrook there.

At forward I'd take Matthews/Nylander/Marner/Kadri over Pavelski/Couture/Kane/Thornton. I think as you go further down the depth chart too the advantage stays with the Leafs.

Both teams will be very top-heavy cap-wise. The Sharks' core is significantly older though. Couture and Pavelski are both UFAs after next season too and I think it'll be tougher for them to re-sign those guys than it will be for us to re-sign our RFAs. They might be forced to lose one of them.

I dunno, I'd go Toronto here.

Bolded part is the main reason behind my thinking that the Leafs have the edge.