The adventures of Erik Karlsson

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/TerryMarcotte/status/965936074726965249

Oh my god why haha. Get the highest possible return you can get for Karlsson and worry about Ryan later.

 

[Kin]

Oh my god why haha. Get the highest possible return you can get for Karlsson and worry about Ryan later.

Well, the easy answer there is that they think clearing Ryan's cap number is a big part of "the highest possible return". But even beyond that I wonder how much Karlsson will realistically cost if the team that trades for him then has to decide whether or not to pay him 11 or 12 million per season. He's a good player, and worth a lot, but there is sort of a catch 22 where any young player that would be considered a good return for him and is affordable may be a more attractive option.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Well, the easy answer there is that they think clearing Ryan's cap number is a big part of "the highest possible return". But even beyond that I wonder how much Karlsson will realistically cost if the team that trades for him then has to decide whether or not to pay him 11 or 12 million per season. He's a good player, and worth a lot, but there is sort of a catch 22 where any young player that would be considered a good return for him and is affordable may be a more attractive option.

For me, I think Karlsson's true value comes as a semi-rental. You trade for him right now and you've got two playoff runs with a generational player at almost half what his AAV should be.

Tampa's name has been the one thrown around the most. How much would they pay to get two shots at the Cup with Stamkos-Kucherov-Hedman-Karlsson-Vasilevskiy?

 

[Kin]

Tampa's name has been the one thrown around the most. How much would they pay to get two shots at the Cup with Stamkos-Kucherov-Hedman-Karlsson-Vasilevskiy?

I don't know but in a way that's sort of my point. I assume Sergachev would be part of the ask, the main part, and then beyond that...Point? A couple firsts? A prospect like Foote? What's the return for Ottawa that makes you say "wow, what a good return" while not doing serious damage to Tampa's depth for those cup runs?

 

[bustaheims]

Oh my god why haha. Get the highest possible return you can get for Karlsson and worry about Ryan later.

Attaching Ryan to any potential Karlsson deal makes it pretty clear they don't have a ton of interest in moving Karlsson.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't know but in a way that's sort of my point. I assume Sergachev would be part of the ask, the main part, and then beyond that...Point? A couple firsts? A prospect like Foote? What's the return for Ottawa that makes you say "wow, what a good return" while not doing serious damage to Tampa's depth for those cup runs?

I imagine an offer would be built around one of Sergachev or Point, and then picks and prospects thrown in after that. It'll be a big haul but after that one main part the trade will look like quantity over quality. For the very reasons that you've suggested. I can't imagine sens fans will be happy with what they get back. There's only going to be a handful of teams that will either a) feel comfortable acquiring him as a rental or b) have the salary cap structure to be able to offer him a mega deal once his current one expires.

It's sort of a similar situation we were in with Kessel, but their Ryan ask would be like if we demanded whoever acquired Kessel took Horton on as well.

 

[Kin]

It's sort of a similar situation we were in with Kessel, but their Ryan ask would be like if we demanded whoever acquired Kessel took Horton on as well.

Well, yeah, except if Kessel had been in high demand and the Leafs had a lot of teams to play off each other. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it'll happen, I'm just saying that in your hypothetical package those "picks and prospects" may not be as valuable to Ottawa as shedding Ryan's contract. Obviously getting someone to agree to that would be a tall order but you can't blame Ottawa for trying to shoot the moon.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Well, yeah, except if Kessel had been in high demand and the Leafs had a lot of teams to play off each other. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it'll happen, I'm just saying that in your hypothetical package those "picks and prospects" may not be as valuable to Ottawa as shedding Ryan's contract. Obviously getting someone to agree to that would be a tall order but you can't blame Ottawa for trying to shoot the moon.

Valuable in what sense though? Shedding Ryan's contract isn't going to help their hockey team in any way. They aren't going to be anywhere close to the cap in the next few seasons if they're trading Karlsson and Hoffman and god knows what else. They'll be rebuilding. They may as well keep him around for another couple of seasons while that happens and then try shedding the contract when there's less term on it.

Trying to package Karlsson and Ryan just screams like a penny-pinching move by Melynk. They'll be giving up potential picks and prospects just so he doesn't have to pay Ryan's cheques.

 

[herman]

Trying to package Karlsson and Ryan just screams like a penny-pinching move by Melynk. They'll be giving up potential picks and prospects just so he doesn't have to pay Ryan's cheques.

To me, that perfectly encapsulates what Melnyk would do and why.

 

[Kin]

Valuable in what sense though? Shedding Ryan's contract isn't going to help their hockey team in any way.

Well, I know this doesn't really track much with Leafs fans but teams with internal caps have a situation where every dollar they spend on guys who aren't helping the team is a dollar they can't spend on someone who would, no matter what the league cap is. If you shed Ryan's contract then they'd have 7 million bucks to use. Also, they could then use that money in the short term to take one year bad contracts and add picks/prospects that way. Considering the picks/prospects from Tampa are likely to not be great/low round picks and they'll probably be drowning in picks/prospects anyway, freeing up some money that they can actually spend would be another avenue to building the team back up.

Trying to package Karlsson and Ryan just screams like a penny-pinching move by Melynk. They'll be giving up potential picks and prospects just so he doesn't have to pay Ryan's cheques.

Well, yeah.

 

[herman]

This is sensational stuff.

https://twitter.com/travisyost/status/966122612697964544

When's the Oiler one?

 

[Frank E]

This is sensational stuff.

https://twitter.com/travisyost/status/966122612697964544

When's the Oiler one?

I don't think that article is any good at all.  It's all speculation and opinion, and without any factual support.

 

[herman]

This is sensational stuff.

https://twitter.com/travisyost/status/966122612697964544

When's the Oiler one?

I don't think that article is any good at all.  It's all speculation and opinion, and without any factual support.

You could also look into how much access Yost has to the sens organization and draw what conclusions you'd like to from that. Most of the statements in that post are pretty verifiable.

This also happened.
https://twitter.com/DownGoesBrown/status/966450808899416065

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't think that article is any good at all.  It's all speculation and opinion, and without any factual support.

I'm curious which part of it you have a problem with. I'd say first that Yost isn't claiming that he has some sort of inside source feeding him all this information. It's clear it's just the thoughts of a fan/follower (I mean there's a reason he posted it on his tumblr and not on TSN where he writes). But I think it's a paints a pretty accurate picture of what's been going on with Karlsson and the sens in the past year or two.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm curious which part of it you have a problem with. I'd say first that Yost isn't claiming that he has some sort of inside source feeding him all this information. It's clear it's just the thoughts of a fan/follower (I mean there's a reason he posted it on his tumblr and not on TSN where he writes). But I think it's a paints a pretty accurate picture of what's been going on with Karlsson and the sens in the past year or two.

Yeah, that arguments he makes are very plausible - and, given his connections, I tend to believe him (especially since he's not trying to blow sunshine up people's asses). I think he's probably right - if Melnyk still owns the sens moving forward, Karlsson is playing somewhere else next season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yeah, that arguments he makes are very plausible - and, given his connections, I tend to believe him (especially since he's not trying to blow sunshine up people's asses). I think he's probably right - if Melnyk still owns the sens moving forward, Karlsson is playing somewhere else next season.

One thing the article didn't mention was the Olympics issue. Melynk was one of the most vocal owners in terms of not wanting to let players go and Karlsson was probably one of the most vocal players for it. Now, Melynk himself wouldn't have changed the NHL's decision there in any way, but that was when I first started to think that there might be a rift beginning there. Especially since Melynk weirdly made that comment about saying he's maybe let Karlsson go if he was Canadian.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm very comfortable in saying that if Karlsson leaves Ottawa it's like at least 90% because of Melnyk.

edit: Sorry, I meant to say when.

 

[ZBBM]

Karlsson is no doubt a smart fellow and he can see that his owner is a borderline nutcase, kind of a downmarket Ballard.  That can't be helping.

The problem for buyers is that there's no way to know if his dropoff this year is due to a no-heal heel or just the general sensishness of the sens.

EDIT: Dammit Carlton quit pre-channeling me.

 

[bustaheims]

Karlsson is no doubt a smart fellow and he can see that his owner is a borderline nutcase, kind of a downmarket Ballard.  That can't be helping.

Borderline?

The problem for buyers is that there's no way to know if his dropoff this year is due to a no-heal heel or just the general sensishness of the sens.

Honestly, I think the idea that he's dropped off is getting over-stated. Sure, his numbers aren't where we've come to expect them to be, but they're still very very good - he's putting up a 63 point pace on a tire fire of a team, and after missing training camp and the beginning of the season. Factor in that it's quite likely he's very unhappy about his current situation, and, well, I'm confident saying he's still the same Erik Karlsson who's carried his team offensively the previous 4 seasons. While his heel may not be quite 100%, it's not having the impact people are attributing to it - and we'll see that when he's playing somewhere else in October.

 

[ZBBM]

Karlsson is no doubt a smart fellow and he can see that his owner is a borderline nutcase, kind of a downmarket Ballard.  That can't be helping.

Borderline?

The problem for buyers is that there's no way to know if his dropoff this year is due to a no-heal heel or just the general sensishness of the sens.

Honestly, I think the idea that he's dropped off is getting over-stated. Sure, his numbers aren't where we've come to expect them to be, but they're still very very good - he's putting up a 63 point pace on a tire fire of a team, and after missing training camp and the beginning of the season. Factor in that it's quite likely he's very unhappy about his current situation, and, well, I'm confident saying he's still the same Erik Karlsson who's carried his team offensively the previous 4 seasons. While his heel may not be quite 100%, it's not having the impact people are attributing to it - and we'll see that when he's playing somewhere else in October.

I'm inoculating myself against possible libel actions here.

Well, the thing about any team that trades for him now is that they get 2 playoffs runs on his bargain deal, so there's plenty of time for them to have a look and see whether there truly is a dropoff or not.  The problem is that there seem to be very few clubs who are on the cusp and who have the assets to swing it.  Aside from TB, who's out there?  NSH doesn't need him, WSH probably doesn't have the assets, and ... ?