The core, on offense. On defense: well....

[Kin]

I looked at Hockey-Reference for defensemen managing positive CorsiRel and >50% CF% before turning 21 (its advanced stats go back to 2007-8). There are 27 such players. 17 were early picks (1st-15th), 10 were later picks. Chances are, obviously, better that you get a young, high value contributor with a high pick -- but there are young, high value contributors drafted in the late first and second.

Since the chances of the Leafs drafting very high are, I'd say, very low, the realistic question is how do they maximize their chances of getting a player like Subban, Letang, Maata, Severson, Hamonic, Carlson, Edler, Slavin, Faulk, or Gardiner? (and the premise is: if you add one of those, in his D+2 year, to Gardiner, Rielly, Zaitsev [on a team with a forward core of Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Kadri] do you have legitimate top-4? I'm inclined to think so, but mileages may vary...)

See, there's a slight problem with your premise. I'm assuming that list of 10 defensemen are the 10 who posted the 50%+ Corsi and the positive Corsi Rel before turning 21.

Problem is PK Subban wasn't in the NHL in his Draft+2 year. In his Draft+3 year, which is the only time he spent in the NHL prior to being 21, he played the grand total of 2 regular season games. Like I said before. It was not until his Draft+4 year where he had a solid rookie season.

Likewise, Jake Gardiner did not have positive numbers in those categories before he was 21. He was not in the league before he was 21. He also had his rookie season in his draft+4 season. So these guys are drafted and then full season, full season, full season and then they're NHL players. That means that anyone drafted now, in this year's draft, would not be making that solid contribution until the 2020-2021 season. Here are some other guys who don't seem to meet the criteria you set out:

Alex Edler(drafted 2004, rookie season 07-08)
Kris Letang(Drafted 2005, doesn't meet criteria until 08-09)
Justin Faulk(drafted 2010, doesn't meet criteria until 13-14)
Travis Hamonic(As far as I can tell has never met criteria)
Jaccob Slavin(Didn't debut in NHL until 21 and doesn't seem to have met criteria)

So it's not 10 guys. It's 3. Passing this very, very low bar you've set for high value contributor. Damon Severson with a smoking 50.7CF%  over 53 games for the Devil included. The only guys to do it for 60+ games are Carlson and Maatta, both being first round picks. So the evidence that you can get a guy like that outside of the first round is very, very sketchy.

That's true. But did LA draft forwards who've had the D+1, D+2, and D+3 that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander have had? Did Florida?

And do we have a better supporting cast than Doughty had in Jack Johnson, Randy Jones, Sean O?Donnell, Rob Scuderi, and Matt Greene? If so, do the Leafs really need a Drew Doughty?

I guess it depends on whether or not you see the pinnacle of hockey achievement as being the 2009-2010 LA Kings or last year's Florida Panthers.

I mean, if you'd like an example of a team with super-talented high-drafted forwards who tried to win the Stanley Cup with a pretty good cobbled together defense they exist and they rhyme with Moshington Mapitals.

Even with some pretty good forwards the Kings still needed Doughty, the Penguins needed Letang, the Blackhawks needed Keith and so on.

Well, this is where the forwards they have, having the D+1s, D+2s, and D+3s that they're having, comes in. The "least bad option" is only a sensible path because they seem to have gotten very lucky choosing all forwards with their high picks. What's "gone wrong" in their chances of drafting a high-pick defenseman is what's gone right in their selection of forwards. 3 rookies are on 50+ point paces, which, as far as I can tell, hasn't ever happened before.

What "went wrong" isn't that Matthews, Marner and Nylander are good, it's that the team never really tore down the shell of the old team and, in some cases(like trading for Andersen) put an immediate competitiveness ahead of potentially drafting some of those late 1st/early 2nd defensive prospects who could be on their way to helping right now as well as steering them towards another high draft pick this year.

Which is where we find the answer to your question. If next year's Leafs had Nylander and Marner and Matthews but didn't have JVR or Kadri or Gardiner...then there's actually a pretty good chance they could draft fairly high in next year's draft. If they used those guys to add other first round picks then they could easily have multiple picks in the top 15.

I'm sure taking a step backwards like that wouldn't be popular with people who are impatient for playoff appearances but at some point you have to ask if this team is ever going to go about things the right way. Crossing your fingers that the next Damon Severson is all the team needs for a championship defense is not the answer.

 

[Frank E]

Here's a list of UFA defensemen going into next season:

https://capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2018/caphit/all/defense/ufa

Shattenkirk is going to get paid paid.

 

[skrackle]

I think the Leafs are going to have to find a way to tank it to get the remaining missing pieces. I haven't gone through it with a microscope, but I seem to recall Tampa being pretty good at that. Let's just get really bad and draft Stamkos and Hedman. Tampa haven't won anything with their current team, but they are at least within range.

That and luck. The Leafs will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat and find a great player in the later draft rounds. It's not exactly a strategy, but not everything goes to plan.

The emerging core they have now is very young. The Leafs have time to get this right, but there's not a lot of margin for error.

 

[disco]

Just keep patiently building the D through the draft. The top nine's gonna be scoring for the next decade. But yeah, I agree. Everyone's hanging to the their top-four, top-two, #1 defensemen. They don't trade, only if they're in their year and in danger of walking (Shattenkirk). Edmonton had to give up fricking Taylor Hall to get one. I keep forgetting Morgan Rielly is only 23. Seems like he's been here a while. Defensemen usually don't peak 'till their mid-to-late twenties.

 

[mr grieves]

What "went wrong" isn't that Matthews, Marner and Nylander are good, it's that the team never really tore down the shell of the old team

A lot of folks were predicting another bottom-5 finish this season. If that'd happened, we could've had a redo of the 2015 draft. Things haven't gone way, largely because (1) the rookies are all really, really good and...

and, in some cases(like trading for Andersen) put an immediate competitiveness ahead of potentially drafting some of those late 1st/early 2nd defensive prospects who could be on their way to helping right now as well as steering them towards another high draft pick this year.

? and (2) they invested in a goaltender. I agree. And wasn't a huge fan of trading for Andersen. I didn?t think he was anything they couldn?t find later on, when they had the prospects they?d need in the system (or more of them, in the right positions).

Which is where we find the answer to your question. If next year's Leafs had Nylander and Marner and Matthews but didn't have JVR or Kadri or Gardiner...then there's actually a pretty good chance they could draft fairly high in next year's draft. If they used those guys to add other first round picks then they could easily have multiple picks in the top 15.

If Leafs management does something I think we all know there's very little chance of them doing -- trading Gardiner and Kadri? -- the Leafs could probably get a high draft pick. There's a better chance of Matthews and Andersen missing most the season with a serious injury, or maybe everyone underperforms with the veterans (Bozak, JvR, and Komarov) gone.

But I really don?t see them trading Kadri and Gardiner to bottom out again. The Andersen move -- and, to a lesser extent, the Boyle trade and Martin signing -- is what tells me their intentions.

And this is where your idea of ?realism? differs from mine. That the best way to get a top-pairing, nearly-NHL-ready is in the top of the first round is absolutely true. But management hasn?t done anything to suggest they plan to be drafting that high anytime soon.

So, from least to most likely, seems we?re down to:
[list type=decimal]
[*]Hoping our best current trade pieces ? JvR+ some prospects ? can land a top-pairing defenseman (very unlikely)
[*]Hoping whoever we draft this year in the mid/late first and beyond is a great player within 3 years (it doesn?t happen often, and even then only in the 3rd year)
[*]Hoping Dermott or Neilsen is developing into a top-pairing defenseman (I guess it?s possible)
[*]Hoping the expansion draft leads to something shaking out of the trade market; Anaheim, Minnesota, Carolina all have more good defensemen than they can protect (no idea ? we?ve heard a lot about expansion motivated moves, but haven?t seen many)
[*]Hoping we get that on the UFA market (Shattenkirk, maybe?)
[*]Hoping for an ?organic? step backwards by way of an injury that pushes the team into the basement (or however TB did it to get Hedman)
[*]Trading Marner or Nylander for a similarly talented defenseman (a la the Seth Jones trade)
[*]Becoming the Washington Capitals (trade for one as the window closes).
[/list]

 

[Bill_Berg]

It seems likely to me they are banking on Rielly and Gardiner to become top pairing defensemen. I don't really see many realistic ways, based on where they are now, to get someone better than them.

 

[Britishbulldog]

and, in some cases(like trading for Andersen) put an immediate competitiveness ahead of potentially drafting some of those late 1st/early 2nd defensive prospects who could be on their way to helping right now as well as steering them towards another high draft pick this year.

? and (2) they invested in a goaltender. I agree. And wasn't a huge fan of trading for Andersen. I didn?t think he was anything they couldn?t find later on, when they had the prospects they?d need in the system (or more of them, in the right positions).

The Andersen move -- and, to a lesser extent, the Boyle trade and Martin signing -- is what tells me their intentions.

Most of the 2016 draft selections were a head scratcher for me and then trading for Andersen rather than waiting until this summer to find a goalie downright confused me.  I bought in to the rebuild taking 5 years or more and that it would be painful, etc.

Running Bernier and all the other players one more season would have given the Leafs a decent crack at a Top 5 draft pick this season.  Instead we might just miss the playoffs like usual.

 

[mr grieves]

Running Bernier and all the other players one more season would have given the Leafs a decent crack at a Top 5 draft pick this season.  Instead we might just miss the playoffs like usual.

It'll be easier to take knowing we're already set at 1C, 2C, 3C, and 1W. In that sense, won't be anything like usual.

 

[Kin]

If Leafs management does something I think we all know there's very little chance of them doing -- trading Gardiner and Kadri? -- the Leafs could probably get a high draft pick. There's a better chance of Matthews and Andersen missing most the season with a serious injury, or maybe everyone underperforms with the veterans (Bozak, JvR, and Komarov) gone.

But I really don?t see them trading Kadri and Gardiner to bottom out again. The Andersen move -- and, to a lesser extent, the Boyle trade and Martin signing -- is what tells me their intentions.

And this is where your idea of ?realism? differs from mine. That the best way to get a top-pairing, nearly-NHL-ready is in the top of the first round is absolutely true. But management hasn?t done anything to suggest they plan to be drafting that high anytime soon.

So, from least to most likely, seems we?re down to:
[list type=decimal]
[*]Hoping our best current trade pieces ? JvR+ some prospects ? can land a top-pairing defenseman (very unlikely)
[*]Hoping whoever we draft this year in the mid/late first and beyond is a great player within 3 years (it doesn?t happen often, and even then only in the 3rd year)
[*]Hoping Dermott or Neilsen is developing into a top-pairing defenseman (I guess it?s possible)
[*]Hoping the expansion draft leads to something shaking out of the trade market; Anaheim, Minnesota, Carolina all have more good defensemen than they can protect (no idea ? we?ve heard a lot about expansion motivated moves, but haven?t seen many)
[*]Hoping we get that on the UFA market (Shattenkirk, maybe?)
[*]Hoping for an ?organic? step backwards by way of an injury that pushes the team into the basement (or however TB did it to get Hedman)
[*]Trading Marner or Nylander for a similarly talented defenseman (a la the Seth Jones trade)
[*]Becoming the Washington Capitals (trade for one as the window closes).
[/list]

I don't really understand why it seems in some regards we should be discussing this with the perspective of what we think the Leafs should do(Not play Martin on the 4th line) whereas when it comes to their defense we should be "Well, they're committed to going down the path, they should make the best of it". They seem no more or less committed to not taking a step back than they are to playing Martin every night and I don't see too many calls to simply discussing the 4th line with Martin on it as an accepted inevitabilty.

But, for the sake of discussion, sure. Let's assume that. The problem then becomes is that you seem to be jumping through hoops in order to reconcile "The Leafs aren't going to take a step backwards and draft high in the short term" with "I really want the Leafs to be a contender in 2-3 years" and so we're talking about winning a cup with a mediocre defense . What I'm saying is that if our best path to adding the top flight defensemen with a development pattern like a Keith or a Josi or a Weber or Subban we should probably be more realistic about the time frame it'll take for those guys to develop(and stop using our better 2nd round picks on wingers but that's another story). I'm ok with the idea that you're looking at your first real shot in 5-6 years because the way I see it Matthews, Marner and Nylander will all still be around then and playing good hockey, if no longer bargain basement cheap. The Bruins, the Kings...their cup wins were quite a while after they drafted their best forwards(Draft+7 for Kopitar, +8 for Bergeron).

(Those cup wins also relied on kind of flukey goaltending performances so they're not entirely realistic goals either but it did take roughly that long for those teams to become contenders post-drafting those guys)

Anyways, all that said, I think you're missing something from your list. If I felt the Leafs really needed to acquire defensemen who could be really valuable contributors in 2-3 years time, and to re-iterate I don't, but if I did then I think the best/most likely way to do it outside of drafting high is actually probably to try and target 20-21 year old prospects who aren't blue-chippers but who have high-end potential. We've discussed about JVR landing a Travis Sanhelm type and I think there are examples where that's worked reasonably well.