The Official 2012 MLB Thread
- Thread starter Erndog
- Start date
Corn Flake
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The Sarge said:
I think it would be weird. I mean, you play 82 games to figure out who the top 16 teams are. Why play 1 more to deal with 8 and 9? edit: yeah it was probably a joke. The 1-game play ins last night felt that way anyway.
Maybe it would be interesting if you say took the 6-11 seeds and let them duke it out in a 3-game mini series for the bottom 3 spots. I dunno.. still seems like a weird way to include teams that shouldn't be included.
bustaheims
Active member
The Sarge said:
Baltimore's success this season is a bit of an anomaly. They finished 11 wins ahead of of their Pythagorean W-L. Pythagorean estimates a team's expected record based on their run differential, and, while it's not a perfect stat, it does tend to be fairly accurate. Most teams who exceed their expected win total do so by 3 wins or less. The only other teams who finished 5 or more wins ahead of their pace this season were Cincinnati and San Francisco - each with 6 more wins than their expected pace. In fact, those 3 teams were the only teams in baseball to finish with a greater than 5 win difference in either direction. 18 of the 30 MLB teams finished within 3 wins of their expected totals. There's a very good chance that Baltimore's success is unsustainable.
maplesyrup
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Luck, anomalies, whatever. I'll take it.
bustaheims
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The Sarge said:
I'd rather not do the one season of mild success and back to mediocrity thing.
maplesyrup
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bustaheims said:
Sure. Me neither. Though if we're not going to pull out the check book, we're going to need something other than our good looks.
bustaheims
Active member
The Sarge said:
Well, I don't know about you, but, I do just fine with my charming personality as well. ;D
Corn Flake
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bustaheims said:
What did Oakland's number look like?
Kin
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The Sarge said:
But I think the point is that luck isn't something you can plan on or build towards. Baltimore's kind of fluke-y season is a great story and fun to watch, but there's no way to emulate it. If the Jays are going to win without spending a ton of money Tampa, or Oakland, are better examples than Baltimore.
Corn Flake
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Nik? said:
Thanks. Interesting the formula was able to calculate them to be that close. It was a pretty unlikely run for them, especially to actually beat out Texas for the division.
maplesyrup
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bustaheims said:
Oh, me too. A quick wit and the incredibly sexy mini-van I drive goes a long way too.
maplesyrup
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Nik? said:
That's fine. I did mention Oakland too.
Kin
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Corn Flake said:
Well, keep in mind that it's not a predictive formula. It's just about basing am expected W-L record off of run differential so a team that is better than expected and outscores their opponents by quite a bit, like Oakland this year, will have a good Expected W-L regardless of how they may have been perceived at the start of the season.
hockeyfan1
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The Sarge said:
Not a bad idea. It gives those seeded teams a 'fighting' chance at a potential playoff spot, and the fans of those respective teams some more 'hope'.
Kin
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The Sarge said:
Outside of creating an artificially exciting game of hockey, what's the rationale? Baseball had a legitimate issue where the strength of one particular division could mean that some teams had an unfair barrier to making the playoffs and really good teams didn't make the playoffs. Hockey doesn't have that. Every single team in a division in Hockey could make the playoffs and every year the #9 seed is a pretty mediocre team.
maplesyrup
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Nik? said:
Yeah, good point.
LeafsKessel
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I don't think it is a good idea to do a one game playoff between #8 and #9 seed because, like it was said earlier, #9 seed is not a really good team and the actual system is okay, so we don't have to change it.
L K
Active member
I'm torn between wanting Washington to regret not starting Strasburg and my general dislike of St. Louis (how many of their mediocre teams get to go to the post-season).
St. Louis has averaged 90.53 wins over the past 13 seasons and made the playoffs 8 times (7 of them as a division champion). How nice would it be for the AL East to suck like that.
St. Louis has averaged 90.53 wins over the past 13 seasons and made the playoffs 8 times (7 of them as a division champion). How nice would it be for the AL East to suck like that.