The Trade Deadline and the Goalie Issue

[Arn]

(Sorry for kind of plagiarising the Thread title from the Phaneuf thread)

Just read this piece by Mirtle in the Globe and Mail

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/deadline-looming-for-maple-leafs-decision-on-future-of-reimer-bernier/article28548339/

Obviously we've known that Reimer contract is up this year while Bernier still has term left.

There were some interesting stats also came up on. The general gist is that Reimer outperforms Bernier in the analytics.

In the "red zone" (basically the slot right out in front of the crease to between the hash marks where around 50% of goals in the NHL are scored from) Reimer ranks 2nd in the NHL for save percentage on shots from here (83.5%) while Bernier is significantly below league average with 66.3%. League average is 75.5%.

So, do you trade Reimer as his contract is ending, and value probably particularly high. Or do you try and work out a way to trade Bernier?

Or do you just keep both? Who, if anyone, is likely available in free agency that would be a better bet?

 

[Kin]

I think Reimer having outperformed Bernier this season is a pretty widely agree upon fact. I don't know that anyone really leans the other way even though I think Bernier has gotten some unfair criticism.

That said, I don't really think either goalie is a long term answer. I don't think trading Reimer means you're making a serious commitment to Bernier as a goalie for the future or vice-versa and I don't think they need to be scouting this year's free agent class to find one for next year.

I mean, absent Reimer's at time stellar play...anyone doubt we'd own the bottom of the league? Isn't that a pretty good argument for trading him?

 

[Tigger]

I hope James proves me wrong but I don't think you can commit to him as a starting goalie, he's going to make some dough on probably a contract with term, trade him, trade Bernier next year.

 

[caver]

any decent offer on either guy should be accepted....keep the rebuild going... 8)

 

[Highlander]

Reimer is still relatively young for a Goalie, I really like the guy, why? Because following him since Junior he has overcome every injury and become better, he has exceeded at every level because of his resilience and who he is.  He may not be our Goalie of the future, but I would rather him mentor Sparks, Bibeau or however with his resilient personality and work ethic. Not so sure about Bernier, perhaps the Habs will need a Goalie from Laval or someone else.
If we can get a high pick for Reims then I guess it will have to be so. I have just seen the Loafs give up on two many guys as they are starting to start to peak. Do I hear Steen or perhaps Stralman at this point?

 

[bustaheims]

Who, if anyone, is likely available in free agency that would be a better bet?

I understand the thinking behind the question, but the reality is that it's not really that important. The Leafs don't need their long-term solution in the NHL next season and they're not likely to find him as a UFA, either. For every player on the roster, there's only one question that needs to asked in regards to whether or not they should be willing to trade them and that's whether the player will provide more value to the team going forward 5 seasons from now than the return from trading him could. With both goaltenders, I'd say the answer is no, holding on to them won't provide more value in 5 years than the return on a trade potentially could.

 

[Arn]

Get where you're coming from Busta. I guess my query is do you run with, assuming Reiner goes, Bernier next year and have him backed up by probably Sparks. Or do we try and pick someone up on a one year deal to play in goal to keep Sparks in the A for another year. Do we want him up in a probably losing team so soon?

You'd imagine Bernier will be traded this time next year so do you want another veteran there and bring Sparks up post trade?

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm mixed. Reimer's probably my favourite player on the team along with Kadri. I see Highlander's point about him being relatively young for an NHL goalie, but he'll be in his 30s when this team starts competing. That's not super old for an elite goalie, but he's not that.

I think you just have to get the best return that you can and move on. If there's absolutely no market for them, then keep them.

 

[bustaheims]

Get where you're coming from Busta. I guess my query is do you run with, assuming Reiner goes, Bernier next year and have him backed up by probably Sparks. Or do we try and pick someone up on a one year deal to play in goal to keep Sparks in the A for another year. Do we want him up in a probably losing team so soon?

You'd imagine Bernier will be traded this time next year so do you want another veteran there and bring Sparks up post trade?

I don't think Sparks gets a full-time spot on the roster until he's at least ready to start 30+ games. So, yeah, they probably do pick up a cheap vet to backup next season, and run with Sparks or Bibeau (or possibly another prospect they add in a trade) after the deadline if Bernier is dealt - which, of course, assumes he plays well enough next season for a team to be interested.

 

[Kin]

You'd imagine Bernier will be traded this time next year so do you want another veteran there and bring Sparks up post trade?

I'd lean that way. Unless Sparks is absolutely just kicking the door down and too good for the AHL, you don't want to have to throw Sparks into the starter's role without being sure he's ready.

 

[Highlander]

Come on Loungo is 36 now. Johnny B was 44 in 67, Sawchuck was 38. Goalies come into their age older than any other player on the team. Why not Reimer who has proven this at every level?

 

[bustaheims]

Come on Loungo is 36 now. Johnny B was 44 in 67, Sawchuck was 38. Goalies come into their age older than any other player on the team. Why not Reimer who has proven this at every level?

Goalies also generally have shorter careers than players in other positions, and, outside of the truly elite, most start to fall off in their mid-30s - and, when goalies start to decline due to age, it's quite dramatic. They get a fraction of a second slower, and that can be enough to make them no longer NHL material.

 

[Highlander]

By the way both Bower and T.S were of Ukrainian decent?.in the draft something to think about????

 

[bustaheims]

By the way both Bower and T.S were of Ukrainian decent?.in the draft something to think about????

Both also played in a very different version of the NHL, so, no.

 

[Highlander]

Busta, they were willing to risk their handsome Ukrainian faces to hard shots, where the new Goalies look for the most part like ad guys? Oh, forgot that Sawchuck had the mask. LOL

 

[bustaheims]

Busta, they were willing to risk their handsome Ukrainian faces to hard shots, where the new Goalies look for the most part like ad guys? Oh, forgot that Sawchuck had the mask. LOL

They played 50 years ago. If that was a trend, it has long since ended.

 

[freer]

Come on Loungo is 36 now. Johnny B was 44 in 67, Sawchuck was 38. Goalies come into their age older than any other player on the team. Why not Reimer who has proven this at every level?

Hasek wasn't a number one until he was in his 30s. I agree with you Highlander

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Reimer has never started more than 35 or so games in any given season. I worry about his durability based on his past, and his consistency as he hasn't strung enough strong play together to trust his numbers this season. I may be wrong, but I just don't think he's the answer. Especially if he gets $4-5 M/season.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Come on Loungo is 36 now. Johnny B was 44 in 67, Sawchuck was 38. Goalies come into their age older than any other player on the team. Why not Reimer who has proven this at every level?

Hasek wasn't a number one until he was in his 30s. I agree with you Highlander

Hasek was 28 going into the season in which he first took a #1 role and also won his first Vezina Trophy.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Come on Loungo is 36 now. Johnny B was 44 in 67, Sawchuck was 38. Goalies come into their age older than any other player on the team. Why not Reimer who has proven this at every level?

Hasek wasn't a number one until he was in his 30s. I agree with you Highlander

Hasek was 28 going into the season in which he first took a #1 role and also won his first Vezina Trophy.

And Luongo was a starter in his 2nd season in the NHL at the age of 21, not sure what his current age has to do with anything.