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Canadiens @ Maple Leafs - Nov. 9th, 7:00pm - SN, Fan 590

azzurri63 said:
He's Berube's type of player so probably why he's in but he definitely doesn't help much. Not even dropping the gloves.
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In theory he's a Berube-type but in reality he just can't keep up. How many decent hits has he actually managed to get in this year. By the time he gets there the puck is long gone.
 
azzurri63 said:
He's Berube's type of player so probably why he's in but he definitely doesn't help much. Not even dropping the gloves.
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He's actually a player like Berube but there isn't much choice in regards to Reaves playing until Dewar is ready to go.
 
herman said:
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What do the units on the graph refer to. If I have a 1.0 for individual offense, for example? (The team would be expected to score 1 fewer goal if I didn’t play? That doesn’t seem to add up.)

Also, how can Reaves have the best “team offense above average” (more or less everyone else being negative)? What does that component mean? It can’t be that Reaves adds the most to team scoring chances …
 
Well, it is nice to see another complete game and a lead locked up and protected. As with Boston, sitting on the lead and giving the 4th line extra minutes gave Montreal some extended chances and momentum in the 3rd but ultimately a very nice effort overall.

And Ryan Reaves legitimately looks like a beer league hockey player being forced into NHL action...
 
What astounds me is that no where in the past two games did I feel like the Leafs would have blown their lead. Prior seasons, playing inferior teams, it's expected that the Leafs would have blown a lead or just not even showed up and lost the game.

But even when MTL was coming strong at the start of the 3rd, the D and goaltending and backchecking was solid. I don't flinch worrying about a softie going into net or the Leafs just laying down.
 
princedpw said:
What do the units on the graph refer to. If I have a 1.0 for individual offense, for example? (The team would be expected to score 1 fewer goal if I didn’t play? That doesn’t seem to add up.)

Also, how can Reaves have the best “team offense above average” (more or less everyone else being negative)? What does that component mean? It can’t be that Reaves adds the most to team scoring chances …
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www.nytimes.com

Improving our NHL projection model ahead of the 2019-20 season

Outlining the changes to Dom's prediction model.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
The cards use Dom’s game score model, which takes the game inputs and uses stat math to translate it to a single number stat, composed of the components in the legend on the chart.

Reaves had the highest team offense mark last game because he was on the ice (and contributed to) a 5v5 goal for.
 
Ozzie said:
What astounds me is that no where in the past two games did I feel like the Leafs would have blown their lead. Prior seasons, playing inferior teams, it's expected that the Leafs would have blown a lead or just not even showed up and lost the game.

But even when MTL was coming strong at the start of the 3rd, the D and goaltending and backchecking was solid. I don't flinch worrying about a softie going into net or the Leafs just laying down.
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It's very strange... where's the letdown and 3-4 goal comeback? It is different this year, some really good 60-minute complete games. Goaltending, wow. Tanev, wow. OEL, wow. We got some new toys and a coach with a fresh approach.

We just need to compose a third line that can contribute. I don't think it's a personnel issue I think it's a line combination issue.
 
cabber24 said:
It's very strange... where's the letdown and 3-4 goal comeback? It is different this year, some really good 60-minute complete games. Goaltending, wow. Tanev, wow. OEL, wow. We got some new toys and a coach with a fresh approach.

We just need to compose a third line that can contribute. I don't think it's a personnel issue I think it's a line combination issue.
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I'd love to see Marner lead his own 3rd line that could score and shut down.
 
Still laughing at this
Watch the PK guy jump to cover Knies expecting the bump to the wall. Nylander’s special skating skill is his upper body and head are basically unaffected by his skating, so it’s an easy read to take the free lane and just murder the next defender by showing he will drop the shoulder with that outside backhand drive has done plenty of times and cutting back forehand after triggering the response. The shot is stupid too. No wind up and barely any load and not aiming for a fancy spot.
 
Marner is constantly scanning and reading the play and mapping out the next couple of moves beyond the one he’s making. And he’s quick to adapt when the situation changes. He describes expecting Kampf to fire a one-timer, so he follows the play to the net like you do, but upon reading Kampf’s soft catch of the pass, he kicks back into gear to gain some separation to present Kampf with a clean target.

Kampf has no pass until Marner changes direction and beats his check to the slot.
 
Marner and Tavares have definitely turned it up a gear over the past several games.

Max Lapierre on Leafs Morning Take today said that he sees Berube's structure bringing more out of Tavares, kind of like how he did for Ryan OReilly in St Louis.

Definitely since Tavares recovered fully from his illness he's been finding the back of the net.
 
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