2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
- Thread starter Darryl
- Start date
bustaheims
Active member
Darryl said:
I'm pretty sure he means Nestor, the prospect that was traded for Santos.
EDIT: It also ignores the fact that the Jays wouldn't have Kevin Comer if it wasn't for the compensation pick they got for Gregg.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Andy007 said:
Santos was much better last season than Gregg. Santos ERA+ 119, WHIP 1.105, Gregg ERA+ 95, WHIP 1.642. Better SO/BB ratio too.
bustaheims
Active member
So, it would appear that the formula this season is 7 runs + Jays = win.
Andy007
Active member
Potvin29 said:
Why are you quoting stats from Gregg's season with an awful Orioles team? His save total and coversion rate with Toronto was better than Santos' last year with Chicago. He was also lights out when he wasn't strenuously overworked. 37 saves aren't anything to scoff at, particularly as compared to that train wreck we saw with Rauch and Francisco last season.
Andy007
Active member
Borschevsky-Antropov-Kulemin said:
No, actually this is the place where condescending, smug and undeservedly confident posters chime in with hyberbolic, pseudo-witty remarks; granted, of course, they have over a certain amount of posts, whereby otherwise they would be labelled as a troll.
Kin
New member
Andy007 said:
Because they're indicative of his performance. It's not like the Orioles being lousy is why Gregg sucked last year. Pitching doesn't really work that way.
Andy007 said:
Santos in 2011 vs. Gregg in 2010 isn't much of a comparison either. Santos' had the better whip by a significant margin, better K/BB ratio, better K/9, better BB/9, better bWAR, better fWAR.
Perhaps most importantly, however, was that Gregg's xFIP in 2010 was 4.05 which was a very strong indication that he'd be significantly worse the next year which...drum roll please...he was.
Andy007 said:
I think general consensus among the people who understand the numbers is that save totals are, in fact, something to scoff at and something they regularly do. Gregg was not good in 2010 and Santos was better than him by just about any reasonable calculation in '11.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Well, I was compiling a reply of stats, but since Nik has done so, with significantly more advanced stats to boot, I've got nothing else to add.
Kin
New member
Andy007 said:
While I'm here I also want to touch on this for a second. In 2010 Gregg definitely sucked when he was pitching without rest. He had an eye-popping 2.268 WHIP, a 7.90 ERA and a pretty terrible 12-16 K/BB ratio.
Santos, in 2011, had pretty significantly better numbers when pitching without rest. He pitched 10 games on no rest and gave up...zero hits. His WHIP was, I kid you not, 0.125. His K/BB ratio was 16-1. It can actually be expressed pretty neatly as a box score. 8 IP, 0 H, 1 BB, 16 K.
So Santos was lights out fantastic with no rest. Gregg was a trainwreck. To me that's a pretty big factor in Santos' corner. Sometimes you need a closer to go in back to back games and Gregg's inability to do so is probably one of the deciding factors why AA decided to go elsewhere and why Kevin Gregg followed it up by losing his closing job on the Orioles.
Andy007
Active member
Potvin29 said:
Fair enough, the stats certainly show Santos is the better player and that was a great post. If I had the opportunity to take either Santos or Gregg, no strings attached, absolutely I take Santos without hesitation.
My point is that the Jays were in a situation where they had Gregg as a FA and had an option to re-sign him. Instead, they let him go and sent Napoli to Texas for Francisco, a guy arguably worse than Gregg. Then, after Francisco flamed out, we flipped NESTOR Molina for Santos. So in relation to the actual train of events, I would have much preferred to keep Gregg for another year, which allows us to retain two valuable assets.
Kin
New member
Andy007 said:
I think that's sort of ignoring both the complexities of what AA was doing as well as the long-term goals of the club. Let's say the Jays did things the way you suggest, right now(assuming they didn't retain Gregg for this year) they'd have:
Mike Napoli
Nestor Molina
However, because they took the approach they did they have:
Sergio Santos
Daniel Comer(compensation pick for letting Gregg walk)
Pick #50 in the coming draft(compensation for Francisco)
Pick #58 in the coming draft(Compensation for Rauch)
Personally I think that's more or less a wash, if not a bit of an edge to the approach they took. Yeah, they'd have Napoli but Napoli loses a bit of value if you move him to DH/1B full time and the Jays already want to make room for D'Arnaud. Add in that they'd still be looking for someone to close out games and that Napoli can't really be judged entirely on what he did last year and I'm not sure they're that much ahead even without knowing who they draft.
But more to the point I'm not sure that if they'd decided to hang on to Gregg necessarily it means that they hold onto Napoli rather than flipping him for Francisco. Francisco was acquired in part because of the draft pick he'd yield and it's not like AA wouldn't be interested in upgrading the bullpen even if Gregg was around. I think it's probably more likely that the Napoli trade still happens and either Dotel or Rauch are the moves AA doesn't make.
Borschevsky-Antropov-Kulemin said:
Fixed.
On a separate note, I was going through the 1st rounders of the last few years, including names like Brett Cecil, Justin Jackson, Kevin Ahrens, Trystan Magnuson...obviously I can't analyze the more recent 1st rounders (the arms all look wicked, not sure about Smith Jr or Anderson), but it seems like the vast majority of 1st and comp rounds of like 2007-2009 were busts. The Jays ended up with JP Arencibia (a fringe starting catcher) , Travis Snider who may very well never play another game in LF for Toronto, and Brett Cecil who was never really that good.
I noticed more position players being taken early in the draft in JP's drafts than AA's, and a bunch of em busted. He drafted Russ Adams too didn't he? Is this because JP sucked the butt at drafting? Or are position players just more prone to busting? I guess only fighting for 1 spot on a team rather than 12...it makes sense.
Kin
New member
donkeyy0 said:
Well, the important thing to remember is that the MLB draft is a little different in that a higher percentage of all players are busts and that under the old CBAs guys often got drafted as much because of price/signability as they did on talent. Because JP tended to put his money into the major league club rather than the draft he made a lot of cheap picks that didn't yield results. I don't know if I'd say he flat out sucked because he did draft guys like Romero, Marcum and some other valuable arms but he definitely didn't make it a priority the way AA has.
Andy007
Active member
Yea that Russ Adams pick was a little weird. I think it was 14th overall and J.P. drafted Hill at the same position the year after or before with almost the exact same pick.
I also remember the write-up on Adams being that he didn't have the range for his position and his ceiling was below every-day player. Yet he was 1st rounder and also on the Jays yearly top prospects lists.
I also remember the write-up on Adams being that he didn't have the range for his position and his ceiling was below every-day player. Yet he was 1st rounder and also on the Jays yearly top prospects lists.
#1PilarFan
New member
The Jays picked Adams because they believed he could make the major league club in a year or two (unlike most MLB prospects) and he filled an expensive and valuable position at SS.
Of course, Adams couldn't play baseball very well so that didn't work out too well for JP, but considering the narrow-minded approach that JP had, he did pretty well for himself at the draft.
Of course, Adams couldn't play baseball very well so that didn't work out too well for JP, but considering the narrow-minded approach that JP had, he did pretty well for himself at the draft.
Heroic Shrimp
New member
Major pitchers duel at the Rogers centre today. 5 combined hits and 2 combined walks between Romero and Lester through 8 innings, Jays up 2-1.