2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[Kin]

The site I saw said he was throwing his curve 32% of the time? I think I read on twitter that his curve was pretty good too.

Yeah, that's my bad. I got the curveball and the cutter columns mixed.

 

[L K]

According to what I read up on Lincoln, he has two really good pitches and that's about it. His minor league era is also over 4 as a starter. I think the thinking with him orginally what that he would incorporate a 3rd pitch and that, combined with his fastball and cutter, would propel him into an effective starter in the majors. It looks like he will (or should) be only a reliever.

Morrow was in a pretty similar situation when he got here, and he's now a very effective starter. So, who knows?

A big difference is that Morrow started his career as a reliever and was being projected as a top closer/reliever.  He hit the majors in his second professional season (2007).  Near the tail end of 2008, he was sent down to the minors to work on becoming a starting pitcher.

Then in 2009 they made an about face and made him a reliever again in spring training.

Morrow was more jerked around in terms of starter vs. reliever.  Lincoln is more of a tried and failed to date, as a starter.

 

[Corn Flake]

Lincoln is more of a tried and failed to date, as a starter.

Maybe the goal here is not to have him try being a starter again.  The goal could be to keep him as a reliever and angle him towards being a closer. If he's got two pitches, it would make some sense.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

According to what I read up on Lincoln, he has two really good pitches and that's about it. His minor league era is also over 4 as a starter. I think the thinking with him orginally what that he would incorporate a 3rd pitch and that, combined with his fastball and cutter, would propel him into an effective starter in the majors. It looks like he will (or should) be only a reliever.

The numbers seem to back that up. It looks like he's flirted with a curve and a slider in the last couple of years but this year he's throwing either the fastball or the cutter about 91% of the time, mixing in a two-seamer and a change-up probably in his couple of starts.

His average fastball velocity is at 93 for the year which, out of the pen, is probably 94-95 so...there's that.

The site I saw said he was throwing his curve 32% of the time? I think I read on twitter that his curve was pretty good too.

I like this site so here's a recap of the trade with the pros/cons of both players: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/did-alex-anthopolous-just-make-a-bad-trade/

Somebody posted this in the comments:

"just a speculation, but the phillies reportedly asked for lincoln in a victorino trade, so maybe we?ll see a Hunter Pence deal tomorrow."

God I hope that's true. I totally don't get this deal. We sign bullpen arms in the offseason, draft tons of arms every year (all our best prospects are pitchers) and now trade our better OF positional prospects for.....what else, pitching.

With Bautista and Arencibia out as well as starting pitchers out, what's the point of trying to make it to the dance? It's not likely, so hold onto our better prospects until a good deal that will really help the team comes along.

This seems like trading uncertainty for even more uncertainty. Bleh. Not a fan at all.

 

[Beowulf]

This screams of a desperation move that didn't need to be made, especially the Snider move. My immediate reaction is that I hate this deal, but now I can only hope I'm proven wrong.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'm sure Snider being out of options next season played into it as well. I would've given him the spot to run with, but I guess if they did and he really struggled, there'd have been some tough decisions to make again.

 

[#1PilarFan]

The Thames deal makes a lot more sense.

He was always a so-so prospect who may be a borderline starting OF in the future.

Delabar's main problem has always been control. Now, given his K:BB, it seems like he's found it, and he'll be affordable for the forseeable future.

Still scratching my head over the Lincoln deal, but I have to think they're going to try him at starter.

 

[Andy007]

The site I saw said he was throwing his curve 32% of the time? I think I read on twitter that his curve was pretty good too.

Yeah, that's my bad. I got the curveball and the cutter columns mixed.

Yea I messed that one up too. It's the splitter he rarely uses.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm sure Snider being out of options next season played into it as well. I would've given him the spot to run with, but I guess if they did and he really struggled, there'd have been some tough decisions to make again.

Yeah. You have think that played a part here. I don't love the move and it certainly has potential to blow up in the team's face, but, I sort of understand it - especially if Lincoln ends up getting flipped for Pence (as unlikely as that may be).

 

[Andy007]

The Thames deal makes a lot more sense.

He was always a so-so prospect who may be a borderline starting OF in the future.

Delabar's main problem has always been control. Now, given his K:BB, it seems like he's found it, and he'll be affordable for the forseeable future.

According to Delabar's splits he pitches much, much better in the pitcher's oasis that is Safeco. Not that I was that high on Thames anyway but, yea, it might be something to be concerned about.

 

[bustaheims]

With Bautista and Arencibia out as well as starting pitchers out, what's the point of trying to make it to the dance? It's not likely, so hold onto our better prospects until a good deal that will really help the team comes along.

To be fair, these moves weren't just about making the playoffs this year. Both guys the Jays acquired are under team control through 2017.

 

[L K]

With Bautista and Arencibia out as well as starting pitchers out, what's the point of trying to make it to the dance? It's not likely, so hold onto our better prospects until a good deal that will really help the team comes along.

To be fair, these moves weren't just about making the playoffs. Both guys the Jays acquired are under team control through 2017.

Which is nice, but it would be cool if the team didn't only make deals with controllable being the primary positive aspect.

 

[Kin]

Which is nice, but it would be cool if the team didn't only make deals with controllable being the primary positive aspect.

It's sort of like rooting for the Baseball equivalent of North Korea. Things may stink but they're firmly under control.

 

[Frank E]

I really wish I could get into baseball.

The metrics and team management seem really interesting. 

I just find the sport itself kind of boring. 

 

[#1PilarFan]

According to Delabar's splits he pitches much, much better in the pitcher's oasis that is Safeco. Not that I was that high on Thames anyway but, yea, it might be something to be concerned about.

Well yeah. Righties are also posting a .950+ OPS against him. He's hardly a finished product, but he has a good fastball and an improving splitter. That should be enough to contribute to the bullpen as long as he can locate his stuff.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

According to Delabar's splits he pitches much, much better in the pitcher's oasis that is Safeco. Not that I was that high on Thames anyway but, yea, it might be something to be concerned about.

Well yeah. Righties are also posting a .950+ OPS against him. He's hardly a finished product, but he has a good fastball and an improving splitter. That should be enough to contribute to the bullpen as long as he can locate his stuff.

Snider's also striking out 30% of his at-bats too but most of us Jays fans like the guy.  Nobody's perfect.  ;D

 

[Kin]

Snider's also striking out 30% of his at-bats too but most of us Jays fans like the guy.

You've brought up the K rate a couple times now but, I mean, an out's an out right? There can be some productivity in flyouts/groundouts but there's also drawbacks. The ways a player makes his outs is a pretty minor component when you're weighing their offensive contributions.

 

[L K]

According to Delabar's splits he pitches much, much better in the pitcher's oasis that is Safeco. Not that I was that high on Thames anyway but, yea, it might be something to be concerned about.

Well yeah. Righties are also posting a .950+ OPS against him. He's hardly a finished product, but he has a good fastball and an improving splitter. That should be enough to contribute to the bullpen as long as he can locate his stuff.

Snider's also striking out 30% of his at-bats too but most of us Jays fans like the guy.  Nobody's perfect.  ;D

It's true.  Snider did have some very real flaws in his game.  But I wonder how much of that is him not getting used to the break on MLB pitches.  Take a look at some of the struggles from guys like Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Mark Trumbo struggled at times last year and wasn't demoted the second he struggled.  You can't give a guy sparing at bats and then demote the guy every time he struggles, meanwhile allow a guy like Juan Rivera or Frank Thomas two months of pathetic hitting and justify it as "well he's a veteran so it's ok".

 

[bustaheims]

It's a small sample size, but, of concern for me with Snider this year is that, while he's hit lefties well, his numbers against right-handed pitching are awful. My guess is that it's just a statistical anomaly (as his numbers against lefties so far are as well), but, it could also be that he's overcompensated for his struggles against southpaws, and, at the MLB level, he's paying for it.

In the past, he's been downright awful against lefties and so-so against righties at the big league level

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Snider's also striking out 30% of his at-bats too but most of us Jays fans like the guy.

You've brought up the K rate a couple times now but, I mean, an out's an out right? There can be some productivity in flyouts/groundouts but there's also drawbacks. The ways a player makes his outs is a pretty minor component when you're weighing their offensive contributions.

It is and it isn't I guess.  If you're striking out you're not putting the ball in play and you're not having a chance to get on base in the different ways, some of it randomness, that ball players do.  If Snider keeps striking out at that rate he's going to need to continue to have a favourable BABIP or develop into that 30 HR guy consistenly to justify a spot in the lineup.