2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[GhostofPotvin29]

Screw it, no playoffs since 1993, even can't miss prospects can miss, go for broke while the iron is hot.  I want me some playoffs and I want this to be as strong a team as possible when they have a very good shot. 

 

[TML fan]

I'm all for going all in, but I don't think it's the right time and I don't think Dickey is the right player. I wouldn't be giving up these assets just yet. Anthopulous may be flying a bit too close to the sun here.

 

[dappleganger]

I'm all for going all in, but I don't think it's the right time and I don't think Dickey is the right player. I wouldn't be giving up these assets just yet. Anthopulous may be flying a bit too close to the sun here.

One thing that keeps me from worrying about the assets given up is if the new acquisitions don't pan out and the jays flame out next year, AA can unload them (minus Josh Johnson) and recoup some talent.

AA is acquiring high end talent and there isn't really any downside to that.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Have Blue Jay fans not been screaming at ownership and AA to open up their wallets and get a starting rotation and some bats? Screaming that the Jays will never compete unless they spend more money?

Now that they're doing it, they're being told that they're doing it wrong? Or doing it to early? I don't follow the Jays nearly as closely as I use to but it's quite obvious that the AA is damned if does and damned if he doesn't.

 

[hockeyfan1]

I'm all for the trade, re: Dickey, Thole and a non-elite prospect to the Jays , and D'Arnaud, Syndergaard, Buck and a non-elite prospect to the Mets.  If this is the rumoured package. 

No one wants to do away with an organization's prospect (in this case for the Jays, D'Arnaud), but if a trade such as this were to improve a team with much-needed desperate help for the particular position that the acquitsd player will fill, then there should be no problem for Anthopoulos to take the 'leap of faith' and obtain what is required.

If the Jays organization can continue to churn out and add promising future prospects with good talent, there should be no need to panic if a current prospect is included in a deal.

If the above deal goes through, I'd say kudos to Anthopoulos for doing so.  It takes courage and brains to be a good GM and AA has been making the grade.

 

[Kin]

Have Blue Jay fans not been screaming at ownership and AA to open up their wallets and get a starting rotation and some bats? Screaming that the Jays will never compete unless they spend more money?

Now that they're doing it, they're being told that they're doing it wrong? Or doing it to early? I don't follow the Jays nearly as closely as I use to but it's quite obvious that the AA is damned if does and damned if he doesn't.

That's a little bit like me saying "You know, first my girlfriend is all upset with me because I don't have a car. Then she's upset with me when I sell the house to buy a Rolls-Royce. I mean, I can't win"

There are middle grounds here and lots of ways to spend money.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Have Blue Jay fans not been screaming at ownership and AA to open up their wallets and get a starting rotation and some bats? Screaming that the Jays will never compete unless they spend more money?

Now that they're doing it, they're being told that they're doing it wrong? Or doing it to early? I don't follow the Jays nearly as closely as I use to but it's quite obvious that the AA is damned if does and damned if he doesn't.

That's a little bit like me saying "You know, first my girlfriend is all upset with me because I don't have a car. Then she's upset with me when I sell the house to buy a Rolls-Royce. I mean, I can't win"

There are middle grounds here and lots of ways to spend money.

Like I said, I haven't followed baseball to closely since the strike back in the 90's. I completely get what you're saying and I agree in that I don't see the point of the deal especially if two top prospects go the other way. Can't we get Mike Piazza back from the Mets?

This team could just as easily end up being the Marlins from last year.

 

[maplesyrup]

This team could just as easily end up being the Marlins from last year.

I don't know about that. You might recall the Jays led the league in runs until all the injuries happened and now have replaced Escobar with Reyes and have replaced a bunch of bench guys with Melky. Izturis is the only downgrade offensively but the way KJ was hitting, I'm not sure folks will notice. Factor that in with a strong pen and a rotation which can be considered the best in the majors, I'm not sure how "easily" they can wind up being the 2012 Marlins. Honestly, regardless how one might feel about the Dickey trade on it's own, I can't imaging how anyone isn't completely charged about the 2013 Jays.   

 

[Zee]

I like the fact that the Jays are going for it and adding all this salary, means Rogers isn't tying the GM's hands and it bodes well going forward for the Leafs in terms of what Burke can do with burying contracts/buyouts etc.

 

[Kin]

Like I said, I haven't followed baseball to closely since the strike back in the 90's. I completely get what you're saying and I agree in that I don't see the point of the deal especially if two top prospects go the other way. Can't we get Mike Piazza back from the Mets?

Well, the point of the deal is pretty clear. The Jays are pushing their chips to the middle of the table. The problem, as some see it, is that the Jays are going all in with a pair of jacks.

Personally, I understand the deal and I certainly wouldn't categorize myself as hating it but, if we go by Fangraphs rankings, the Blue Jays have now traded their #1, #3, #5, #6 and #10 prospects from last year. Do they have a surefire ace? No. Are we sure about the middle of the order? No. Does the team have a great bullpen? Eh. I loved the Marlins deal because the club pared off some prospects and added a bunch of pieces. This deal deals two of the Jays top five prospects for a guy whose value is being overrated by quite a few folks. He finished tied for 16th in fWAR among pitchers.

The thing about this trade I don't like is that I really think that if D'Arnaud projects he stands to help this club a little more than Dickey does. Dickey just had the best year of his career and he put up a 4.8 fWAR. I think Marcum/Edwin Jackson could have added something in that range and you get to keep a guy who could add another middle of the order bat that could really help in the unlikely event that Edwin Encarnacion isn't a perennial MVP candidate

 

[Kin]

I don't know about that. You might recall the Jays led the league in runs until all the injuries happened and now have replaced Escobar with Reyes and have replaced a bunch of bench guys with Melky. Izturis is the only downgrade offensively but the way KJ was hitting, I'm not sure folks will notice.

I don't think that's an accurate representation of the Jays as an offensive club though. I don't recall when the Jays were leading the league in runs scored, how much say it may have been affected by games played, but even beyond that it's kind of an overly simplistic measurement. The Rogers Centre is an offensive park that inflates scoring. So is Fenway. So is New Yankee Stadium. So is Camden Yards. That's the majority of the Jays season right there where their runs scored figure is going to be inflated.

Compare the Jays to the Rays, who play in a park where their run totals are deflated, and you get a better picture of the Jays deficiencies. At a glance the Jays were a "better" offensive club than the Rays scoring 697 runs to the Jays 716 but in context the Rays were actually a significantly better team. The Jays had only two players who played in 50 or more games who had an OPS+ of over a hundred. The Rays had six. The Jays had three players who had an oWAR of better than 2.0,Lawrie(2.0) Bautista(3.1) and Encarnacion(5.1), the Rays had five guys over 2.0.

So the Jays had only two players who hit better than the average major leaguer and only three guys who added good value offensively. Reyes is a very good addition and Cabrera could be, provided his power wasn't all store bought but it's pretty likely that Encarnacion regresses by a fair measure.

None of this is to say the Blue Jays won't be a good offensive team. They could be if the right guys develop/stay healthy. But they weren't last year and, outside of Reyes, they haven't added anyone who we can be sure addresses that.

 

[Corn Flake]

While they may not truly have a 100% tried and true "Ace", I think it is tough to find another team who can send out 5 SP's as good as those 5, who are all capable of shutting teams down on a regular basis.  These 5 are going to eat up a TON of innings and stack up piles of quality starts. Barring complete unraveling of one or more than one of them and some luck in the injury dept. for once, they are going to be a formidable 5.  I just really like the depth of quality there.. something sorely lacking last year. Hell if even only 4 of those 5 are avaialable at any given time, they are going to be a big time threat. 

I like some of the other things about Dickey such as the Mets team record over the last 3 years when he started was 53-39 vs. 177-217 when he did not.  (source: Buster Onley).  Also the fact that knuckeball pitchers tend to have a lot more success in indoor stadiums (no wind... ball tends to float better). Rogers Ctr is a hitter friendly park but also a knuckleball friendly one too.  Hopefully that balances things out.

I'd like to wait and see what the final price tag is in this trade before getting too bent out of shape about it. The rumored deal is steep, but let's see.

As for the AL east... the Rays trading their ace away blows a huge hole in their chances and we all know the Red Sox are a mess.  Yankees crumbling and not really doing anything about it. Baltimore? yeah I will believe it when I see it that they can do that again.

 

[Kin]

While they may not truly have a 100% tried and true "Ace", I think it is tough to find another team who can send out 5 SP's as good as those 5, who are all capable of shutting teams down on a regular basis.

Not that tough. If the question is finding a team with five guys who are capable of that, in the same way that Romero is capable of it despite not doing it last year, I think there are at least 5 or 6 teams like that. Detroit,  Washington, Tampa, LA and SF immediately spring to mind.

I'd like to wait and see what the final price tag is in this trade before getting too bent out of shape about it. The rumored deal is steep, but let's see.

I agree with that. That said, all I'm saying about the deal is A) I think Dickey is being overrated and B) I don't like it. It's not the end of the world.

As for the AL east... the Rays trading their ace away blows a huge hole in their chances and we all know the Red Sox are a mess.  Yankees crumbling and not really doing anything about it. Baltimore? yeah I will believe it when I see it that they can do that again.

FWIW the Rays traded away their #3 guy from last year, not their Cy Young winning Ace.

 

[sucka]

As for performance at the Skydome (no, i refuse to call it Rogers Centre, but now that they're opening the purse-strings maybe that will change) for knucklers, does wind help make the movement more erratic or does a stable environment make it more effective?  I was on the fence about the price exacted for this trade, but I guess you can't go for it all in a half-assed manner.  Who knows how how committed Rogers to future spending?

 

[Corn Flake]

While they may not truly have a 100% tried and true "Ace", I think it is tough to find another team who can send out 5 SP's as good as those 5, who are all capable of shutting teams down on a regular basis.

Not that tough. If the question is finding a team with five guys who are capable of that, in the same way that Romero is capable of it despite not doing it last year, I think there are at least 5 or 6 teams like that. Detroit,  Washington, Tampa, LA and SF immediately spring to mind.

I honestly don't know those rotations well beyond the obvious names.  Those teams don't have even 1 starter at the end of the rotation that they probably shrug and hope for the best? 

As for the AL east... the Rays trading their ace away blows a huge hole in their chances and we all know the Red Sox are a mess.  Yankees crumbling and not really doing anything about it. Baltimore? yeah I will believe it when I see it that they can do that again.

FWIW the Rays traded away their #3 guy from last year, not their Cy Young winning Ace.

sorry yes I got price and Shields mixed up... Sheilds was probably their #2 but either way it was a 15 game winner they moved.  Kind of a big'ish deal.

 

[Kin]

I honestly don't know those rotations well beyond the obvious names.  Those teams don't have even 1 starter at the end of the rotation that they probably shrug and hope for the best?

Well, my point is that at this point that's largely what we're doing with Romero. But Detroit for instance has Verlander, Fister, Sanchez, Scherzer and then the question mark of Porcello. Washington has Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detweiler and the question mark of Haren. LA, in kind of an embarrassment of riches, has Kershaw, Greinke, Billingsley, Capuono, Beckett and then guys like Harang, Lilly and the new guy from Korea.

So the Jays certainly have moved into the upper echelon of pitching rotations but there are other clubs right there with them and, at least in the three examples above, those clubs all have those sure thing #1 guys as the anchors.

sorry yes I got price and Shields mixed up... Sheilds was probably their #2 but either way it was a 15 game winner they moved.  Kind of a big'ish deal.

I suppose. I think it's going to make them better this year, not worse, but that's not a sure thing.

 

[Corn Flake]

As for performance at the Skydome (no, i refuse to call it Rogers Centre, but now that they're opening the purse-strings maybe that will change) for knucklers, does wind help make the movement more erratic or does a stable environment make it more effective?

A calmer, indoor park is supposed to be better as the air movement (always is some) is more subtle and allows the pitcher to get the small amount of spin he wants (none is not good) and control it better.  I believe a windy ballpark causes problems for the pitcher controlling the ball and throwing for strikes.

 

[Kin]

As for performance at the Skydome (no, i refuse to call it Rogers Centre, but now that they're opening the purse-strings maybe that will change) for knucklers, does wind help make the movement more erratic or does a stable environment make it more effective?

The way I understand the physics of the knuckleball is that strong winds are kind of a mixed bag. On the one hand it can lead to a ton of movement, on the other it can lead to a ton of the same kind of movement which can get predictable.

I don't know that there's anything resembling a definitive statistical answer. Tim Wakefield didn't pitch particularly well in the Skydome but Dickey himself, in a small sample size, has pitched terrifically indoors in the last three years.

 

[Corn Flake]

I honestly don't know those rotations well beyond the obvious names.  Those teams don't have even 1 starter at the end of the rotation that they probably shrug and hope for the best?

Well, my point is that at this point that's largely what we're doing with Romero. But Detroit for instance has Verlander, Fister, Sanchez, Scherzer and then the question mark of Porcello. Washington has Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann, Detweiler and the question mark of Haren. LA, in kind of an embarrassment of riches, has Kershaw, Greinke, Billingsley, Capuono, Beckett and then guys like Harang, Lilly and the new guy from Korea.

So the Jays certainly have moved into the upper echelon of pitching rotations but there are other clubs right there with them and, at least in the three examples above, those clubs all have those sure thing #1 guys as the anchors.

Fair enough... let's just say the Jays are up there in the conversation with some of the better rotations in the league, with the question mark being who is the true ace of the staff.

sorry yes I got price and Shields mixed up... Sheilds was probably their #2 but either way it was a 15 game winner they moved.  Kind of a big'ish deal.

I suppose. I think it's going to make them better this year, not worse, but that's not a sure thing.

How does trading their #2 (or 3) of 15 games won make the Rays better? They got prospects for him.

 

[bustaheims]

How does trading their #2 (or 3) of 15 games won make the Rays better? They got prospects for him.

They got what might be the best major league ready prospect in baseball, who could significantly upgrade their offence (as well as a highly regarded pitching prospect), while they have more than enough pitching depth to make up for the loss of Shields.