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2015 NHL Entry Draft

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princedpw said:
It's just a general impression.  I don't have any particular stats on hand that back that up.  It's really more that winning the stanley cup when your top player is a center or defensemen seems more common than when the top player is a winger.  That's not based on any particular measurement but Crosby/Malkin, Toews/Keith (not to ignore Kane completely), Datsyuk/Lidstrom, Kopitar/Doughty come to mind when I think of recent winners. 

I do believe I have seen some stats that suggest that top-end forwards are more reliable 1st round picks than defensmen, but I don't have them at my finger tips.

I think I'd worry more about the expected or maybe maximal upside as opposed to the bust rate though.

But of course the experts should have way, way more info on each of these players than I do.  I have almost zero.

I agree about the relative importance of centers, what I was asking was about the relative predictability of centers vs. other positions. Personally I've never really gotten that feeling but, like you, I don't have anything in the way of numbers behind that.
 
LuncheonMeat said:
My preference is Strome, but like some here I don't know that much about Hanafin.  What are the chances that, five years from now Strome turns out to be a better player than McDavid?  Any?  And who is a comparable for Hanfin?

He has been compared to a Rob Blake-type or a Ryan McDonagh-type. Here are some (older) articles:

?For an old school guy, he?s maybe like a Rob Blake kind of guy,? a Western Conference amateur scout said. ?That big, that strong can skate, can do it both ways. Just one of those big horses every good team in the league has one or more of those guys. He?s going to be one of those guys who will be a fixture for a long time you can rely on a lot and using in all situations. ?
                                                       
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/noah-hanifin-is-more-than-a-consolation-prize-in-the-2015-draft-204036339.html

                                                -------------

Noah will likely be that minute eating, top pairing defenseman who plays against the opposition?s finest as well as on the PK and power play. A good comparison would be Ryan McDonagh, the Captain of the New York Rangers.

http://thehockeywriters.com/noah-hanifin-the-next-great-american-defenseman/
 
hockeyfan1 said:
LuncheonMeat said:
My preference is Strome, but like some here I don't know that much about Hanafin.  What are the chances that, five years from now Strome turns out to be a better player than McDavid?  Any?  And who is a comparable for Hanfin?

He has been compared to a Rob Blake-type or a Ryan McDonagh-type. Here are some (older) articles:

?For an old school guy, he?s maybe like a Rob Blake kind of guy,? a Western Conference amateur scout said. ?That big, that strong can skate, can do it both ways. Just one of those big horses every good team in the league has one or more of those guys. He?s going to be one of those guys who will be a fixture for a long time you can rely on a lot and using in all situations. ?
                                                       
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/noah-hanifin-is-more-than-a-consolation-prize-in-the-2015-draft-204036339.html

                                                -------------

Noah will likely be that minute eating, top pairing defenseman who plays against the opposition?s finest as well as on the PK and power play. A good comparison would be Ryan McDonagh, the Captain of the New York Rangers.

http://thehockeywriters.com/noah-hanifin-the-next-great-american-defenseman/

I think we should all get used to the idea of Hanifin coming to Toronto. I don't see Arizona passing on Strome. They have their star defenseman and are in need of a star centreman.
 
RedLeaf said:
I think we should all get used to the idea of Hanifin coming to Toronto. I don't see Arizona passing on Strome. They have their star defenseman and are in need of a star centreman.

The best teams in the league don't just settle for one all-star defenseman and OEL doesn't look like he's going to be winning the Norris any time soon. If that is the reason Arizona passes on Hanifin they'd be chumps.

That said, I'm happy with either so there's nothing really to get used to.
 
RedLeaf said:
hockeyfan1 said:
LuncheonMeat said:
My preference is Strome, but like some here I don't know that much about Hanafin.  What are the chances that, five years from now Strome turns out to be a better player than McDavid?  Any?  And who is a comparable for Hanfin?

He has been compared to a Rob Blake-type or a Ryan McDonagh-type. Here are some (older) articles:

?For an old school guy, he?s maybe like a Rob Blake kind of guy,? a Western Conference amateur scout said. ?That big, that strong can skate, can do it both ways. Just one of those big horses every good team in the league has one or more of those guys. He?s going to be one of those guys who will be a fixture for a long time you can rely on a lot and using in all situations. ?
                                                       
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/noah-hanifin-is-more-than-a-consolation-prize-in-the-2015-draft-204036339.html

                                                -------------

Noah will likely be that minute eating, top pairing defenseman who plays against the opposition?s finest as well as on the PK and power play. A good comparison would be Ryan McDonagh, the Captain of the New York Rangers.

http://thehockeywriters.com/noah-hanifin-the-next-great-american-defenseman/

I think we should all get used to the idea of Hanifin coming to Toronto. I don't see Arizona passing on Strome. They have their star defenseman and are in need of a star centreman.

Maybe, but like the Leafs they kind of suck as a team.  I think it depends on who they feel is the most talented player.  Hopefully they go with the consensus opinion and draft Hanafin, only b/c I would like to see the Leafs get a 1C.
 
If it comes down to either Hanifin or Strome for both teams, at least the Leafs won't have to worry about having a tough decision to make. ;)

By all accounts, I think the Leafs would do well with either player. Will one be dramatically better than the other down the road? That's Arizona's dilemma.
 
LuncheonMeat said:
RedLeaf said:
hockeyfan1 said:
LuncheonMeat said:
My preference is Strome, but like some here I don't know that much about Hanafin.  What are the chances that, five years from now Strome turns out to be a better player than McDavid?  Any?  And who is a comparable for Hanfin?

He has been compared to a Rob Blake-type or a Ryan McDonagh-type. Here are some (older) articles:

?For an old school guy, he?s maybe like a Rob Blake kind of guy,? a Western Conference amateur scout said. ?That big, that strong can skate, can do it both ways. Just one of those big horses every good team in the league has one or more of those guys. He?s going to be one of those guys who will be a fixture for a long time you can rely on a lot and using in all situations. ?
                                                       
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/noah-hanifin-is-more-than-a-consolation-prize-in-the-2015-draft-204036339.html

                                                -------------

Noah will likely be that minute eating, top pairing defenseman who plays against the opposition?s finest as well as on the PK and power play. A good comparison would be Ryan McDonagh, the Captain of the New York Rangers.

http://thehockeywriters.com/noah-hanifin-the-next-great-american-defenseman/

I think we should all get used to the idea of Hanifin coming to Toronto. I don't see Arizona passing on Strome. They have their star defenseman and are in need of a star centreman.

Maybe, but like the Leafs they kind of suck as a team.  I think it depends on who they feel is the most talented player.  Hopefully they go with the consensus opinion and draft Hanafin, only b/c I would like to see the Leafs get a 1C.

I'd be more than ok with Hanafin and Kylington (sp?) in the same draft assuming there are some good C prospects next year (Leaf scouting should have a good idea about that)....
 
Chev-boyar-sky said:
LuncheonMeat said:
RedLeaf said:
hockeyfan1 said:
LuncheonMeat said:
My preference is Strome, but like some here I don't know that much about Hanafin.  What are the chances that, five years from now Strome turns out to be a better player than McDavid?  Any?  And who is a comparable for Hanfin?

He has been compared to a Rob Blake-type or a Ryan McDonagh-type. Here are some (older) articles:

?For an old school guy, he?s maybe like a Rob Blake kind of guy,? a Western Conference amateur scout said. ?That big, that strong can skate, can do it both ways. Just one of those big horses every good team in the league has one or more of those guys. He?s going to be one of those guys who will be a fixture for a long time you can rely on a lot and using in all situations. ?
                                                       
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/noah-hanifin-is-more-than-a-consolation-prize-in-the-2015-draft-204036339.html

                                                -------------

Noah will likely be that minute eating, top pairing defenseman who plays against the opposition?s finest as well as on the PK and power play. A good comparison would be Ryan McDonagh, the Captain of the New York Rangers.

http://thehockeywriters.com/noah-hanifin-the-next-great-american-defenseman/

I think we should all get used to the idea of Hanifin coming to Toronto. I don't see Arizona passing on Strome. They have their star defenseman and are in need of a star centreman.

Maybe, but like the Leafs they kind of suck as a team.  I think it depends on who they feel is the most talented player.  Hopefully they go with the consensus opinion and draft Hanafin, only b/c I would like to see the Leafs get a 1C.

I'd be more than ok with Hanafin and Kylington (sp?) in the same draft assuming there are some good C prospects next year (Leaf scouting should have a good idea about that)....

I would be happy with either one as well, but preference really just boils down to a lack of knowledge about Hanafin.  I wonder if McDavid is the next Crosby, could a guy like Strome be the equivalent of a Tavares?
 
LuncheonMeat said:
I would be happy with either one as well, but preference really just boils down to a lack of knowledge about Hanafin.  I wonder if McDavid is the next Crosby, could a guy like Strome be the equivalent of a Tavares?

I really think that's underselling the sort of hype there was around Tavares. Tavares was a better than ppg player in the OHL at 15.
 
LuncheonMeat said:
My preference is Strome, but like some here I don't know that much about Hanafin.  What are the chances that, five years from now Strome turns out to be a better player than McDavid?  Any?  And who is a comparable for Hanfin?

Strome being better than McDavid, slim to none barring significant injuries.

McDavid isn't the #1 draft choice because of a small advantage, being an exceptional player isn't for players of average talent.  The previous exceptional OHL players were Tavares and Ekblad.  Mind you the 4th player Sean Day has looked like a bit of a dud in terms of being that rare elite talent. 
 
Re:  Dylan Strome

Some (older) articles:

Dylan Strome has helped Connor McDavid become a better player as well.  It works both ways.  McDavid told us earlier in the season just that.

?He?s an unbelievable player,? McDavid said of Strome.  ?Every time he?s on the ice, it feels like something is going to happen.?

Strome is an outstanding player.  He, like most everyone else, has things to work on.  His skating is coming along, but it has work to do.  He is also working on his size.  Compared to the beginning of the season, both are leaps and bounds better.


http://thehockeywriters.com/dylan-strome-great-player-or-trendy-pick/

                                                      --------

He has been compared to a Cory Perry-type or a Ryan Kessler-type:

Ryan Strome told me that his brother plays with a little more of an edge than he did his draft year. Similarly, both Ryan and Dylan have that competitive edge and grittiness. Dylan wants the puck and wants to score and wants to win. He's driven and has that competitive edge. I think a fair comparison is a Ryan Kesler or a Cory Perry type; a guy who's a strong skater, has agility and that reach that scouts love to see." - Mike Morreale

http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2015/02/midseason-mediascout-top-10-for-2015.html?m=1
 
So.....McDavid to the Oilers.

$+!@*#

Our tank was not strong enough by 6/7 points. I remember that one "4 pointer" game where we beat Edmonton quite convincingly late in the season which pretty much put the nail in the coffin on 3rd overall. 

Oh...and McDavid looked crushed.  I don't care what he says, he had no interest in going to Edmonton.

How good is Strome/Hanifin/Marner going to be for the Leafs.  Is there enough talent there to help lead us to a cup past the next cycle of presumably good to great teams (NYI, TBay, Edm, Fla, Buf,Columbus).  These are the team's we will be competing against in 3-5 years. Will we get enough top end picks to help us compete with those teams, especially with the new lottery and cap systems in place.

 
Comparing Strome/Marker/Hanifin -- as per an Arizonian debate:

...a bit hesitant on taking a defenseman high in the NHL draft due to the usual extended learning curve for the position. But, in Hanifin's case I'm not at all hesitant. The couple of times I've seen him play I've been extremely impressed with him on both ends of the ice. He skated well and never seemed to be out of position. He is the rare blueliner, who to me, and apparently most of the scouts, looks like he could be ready to play in the NHL right away"...

"...not sure that Hanifin is clearly better than Strome or Marner..."

"... didn't take Hanifin, it would be Strome. He's bigger and is likely to be a player who can play a two-way game in the NHL better than Marner can. However, I'm readily willing to admit it's a close contest and Marner is clearly a better skater at this point. I just worry about Marner's ability to play the full 200 feet..."

"...Strome probably being a better two way player. He is bigger and his floor is certainly higher than Marner's. But Marner's ceiling is higher".


http://www.fiveforhowling.com/2015/3/30/8308673/c-c-debate-factory-what-the-arizona-coyotes-should-do-if-the-third
 
Mr. Leaf said:
Am I the only one that would strongly consider Marner over Hanafin?

You're probably not alone.  :)

Here's something on Marner:

Some scouts have compared his style to that of Kane or Edmonton Oilers forward Jordan Eberle.

"We used to joke around and say that the way Kane sees guys on the ice resembles a video game because he knows where each of the players on the ice will be going," Hunter said. "That's what Mitch has. A tendency to never get hit. He makes plays when you feel there's no way he should be able to make them, and I can see that comparison between Mitch and Kane. Especially with their skating ability and lateral movement.


http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=758654

                                                 -------

Marner has also been compared to a Jonathan Drouin/Nikolaj Ehlers-type.
Size is not going to hold Mitch back due to his speed, vision, creativity, defensive ability and all-around offensive skills. He is simply an elite hockey player, something of a hybrid of Jonathan Drouin and Nikolaj Ehlers?.

http://thehockeywriters.com/2015-nhl-draft-war-room-top-5-undersized-forwards/
 
This is actually going to be quite an interesting draft. Outside of the top-2, I really don't know how it's going to play out.
 
Forget any talk of picking Marner over Hanifin.  You don't pass up the chance to add a top-pairing rock to the blueline.*  Especially when his strengths complement Rielly's. 






* (Of course, that's what we hoped we were getting with Schenn.)
 
The thing about Hanifin is that he is a good skater.  Schenn was never a good skater but he wasn't even a good skater for the old clutch and grab NHL.  So Schenn just was just born 10+ years too late to be really effective.  Hanifin is built for the modern NHL where he has size but a lot of mobility that can make him a potentially elite defenseman.  He absolutely complements Rielly well and provides a better shot for the powerplay with Rielly. 

I actually don't think it would be a terrible thing if the Leafs came away from the draft with Hanifin + Kylington on defense.  I also would be quite happy if they came away with a combination of Marner/Strome and Kopecky/Svetchnikov either.  The Leafs are certainly going to get a nice bump to their prospect pool with the draft.  I'm still quite confident in saying "F*** Edmonton" though.
 
Any chance that if Strome is taken by AZ and the Leafs take Hanifin the Leafs move back into another top 10-15 pick?  Could a Kessel or Phaneuf trade net a 1st rounder that high?

Leafs could then look at either Barzal or Zacha with another high pick.
 
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