2015 NHL Entry Draft

[CarltonTheBear]

http://www.thescore.com/news/684392

MacT says that he'd be willing to trade his first, even if he wins the lottery, for established players. Granted I'm sure they wouldn't actually trade the pick, but that would be hilarious. Also, they could literally take whatever they wanted from us for it.

To clarify, it looks like theScore misinterpreted something Mac said. Apparently he's open to dealing his 1st rounder that he got from Pittsburgh for Perron, or his early 2nd rounder. Still, those are picks that the Leafs should be looking to acquire also.

 

[ZBBM]

http://www.thescore.com/news/684392

MacT says that he'd be willing to trade his first, even if he wins the lottery, for established players. Granted I'm sure they wouldn't actually trade the pick, but that would be hilarious. Also, they could literally take whatever they wanted from us for it.

To clarify, it looks like theScore misinterpreted something Mac said. Apparently he's open to dealing his 1st rounder that he got from Pittsburgh for Perron, or his early 2nd rounder. Still, those are picks that the Leafs should be looking to acquire also.

Anybody who lands the #1 overall is not going to be trading it and pass on McDavid.  I have pipe dreams that there's a chance this won't be so, but that's all it is, smoke.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Anybody who lands the #1 overall is not going to be trading it and pass on McDavid.  I have pipe dreams that there's a chance this won't be so, but that's all it is, smoke.

Oh I definitely didn't actually think he'd trade the pick, I just thought he was crazy for even suggesting that he'd entertain the possibility. Turns out he obviously isn't though.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

http://www.thescore.com/news/684392

MacT says that he'd be willing to trade his first, even if he wins the lottery, for established players. Granted I'm sure they wouldn't actually trade the pick, but that would be hilarious. Also, they could literally take whatever they wanted from us for it.

To clarify, it looks like theScore misinterpreted something Mac said. Apparently he's open to dealing his 1st rounder that he got from Pittsburgh for Perron, or his early 2nd rounder. Still, those are picks that the Leafs should be looking to acquire also.

Anybody who lands the #1 overall is not going to be trading it and pass on McDavid.  I have pipe dreams that there's a chance this won't be so, but that's all it is, smoke.

Unless the Leafs win the lottery, then you might see it traded.  :-\

 

[L K]

Updated standings and draft slotting heading into the all-star break:

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Well so much for Columbus maybe passing us, they just announced that Bobrovsky will be out 4-6 weeks.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Well so much for Columbus maybe passing us, they just announced that Bobrovsky will be out 4-6 weeks.

Trade them Reimer for a 2nd round pick

 

[Britishbulldog]

Updated standings and draft slotting heading into the all-star break:

Was does the magic # indicate?  Buffalo needs to win 86 pts?  Minnesota needs 73 pts?  I can't figure it out since the Leafs are on pace for 80 pts.  I am usually good with numbers and formulas but I can't see what is being proposed here.

 

[bustaheims]

Was does the magic # indicate?  Buffalo needs to win 86 pts?  Minnesota needs 73 pts?  I can't figure it out since the Leafs are on pace for 80 pts.  I am usually good with numbers and formulas but I can't see what is being proposed here.

It's the number of points that team needs to earn over the rest of the season to ensure they finish ahead of the Leafs in the standings (and, therefore, below them in the draft order) should the Leafs somehow finish the season without losing a game.

 

[L K]

Was does the magic # indicate?  Buffalo needs to win 86 pts?  Minnesota needs 73 pts?  I can't figure it out since the Leafs are on pace for 80 pts.  I am usually good with numbers and formulas but I can't see what is being proposed here.

It's the number of points that team needs to earn over the rest of the season to ensure they finish ahead of the Leafs in the standings (and, therefore, below them in the draft order) should the Leafs somehow finish the season without losing a game.

Essentially this.  I did have a bit of an error in the formula.  The proper format should be
(Leafs Max Point Total) - (Current Point Total of Other Team) +/- ROW Tiebreaker

For the regulation win tie-breaker I have defaulted it to +1 point if the Leafs have the same number of wins/more regulation wins and no additional point if the opponent has more regulation wins.

Two examples:
Anaheim = [Max Leafs Point Total] - [Current Anaheim Point Total] + [ROW Modifier]
Anaheim = 115 - 70 + 0
Anaheim = 45

So if Anaheim grabs another 45 points, the Leafs lose 45 of their remaining 68 points, or some combination of the two, Anaheim clinches a spot ahead of the Leafs in the standings.  If the Leafs ran the table and finished 34-0-0 they would actually finish ahead of Anaheim by virtue of ROW based on the tie-breaker, but that would adjust the ROW modifier to make Anaheim's Magic Number to be 46.

The flip side is Buffalo
Buffalo = 115 - 31 +1
Buffalo = 85

So Buffalo needs a combination of running the table (68 points) PLUS the Leafs losing 17 of their remaining 68 points for the Leafs to have a shot at the #1 overall pick.  Pretty much impossible but who knows.

 

[L K]

Overall a pretty solid night for the Leafs.  Minnesota passes the Leafs.  Carolina picks up two points.  Philadelphia inches closer to passing the Leafs.

 

[Arn]

So a top 4 or 5 pick is very realistic? A loss to the devils tonight would be a good start...

If we were to make it to 4 or 5 territory who would we be likely to be getting?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So a top 4 or 5 pick is very realistic? A loss to the devils tonight would be a good start...

If we were to make it to 4 or 5 territory who would we be likely to be getting?

The general consensus has American defenceman Noah Hanifin and Canadian forwards Dylan Strome and Lawson Crouse going 3-5 in some order. Somebody like Swedish defenceman Oliver Kylington or the high-scoring London Knight Mitch Marner could squeeze in there if Crouse falls. If they got that high I'm sure they would kill for Strome.

I can't see them finishing in the bottom-5 though. At some point a few wins will come out way. Although Carolina is on quite the roll right now...

 

[Arn]

Thanks for that - I think I've heard a bit about Marner, has he been a bit of a dark horse outside bet come good?

Wishful thinking going for top 5 maybe I guess but it's nice to dream.

Would (m)any of those guys be NHL ready for next season?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Thanks for that - I think I've heard a bit about Marner, has he been a bit of a dark horse outside bet come good?

Wishful thinking going for top 5 maybe I guess but it's nice to dream.

Would (m)any of those guys be NHL ready for next season?

I think Marner was still considered a top-10 pick prior to this season, but his performance has definitely solidified that spot for him. Although LK might be able to provide more info. I know he went in the mid-1st round of the OHL draft in 2013 but that was because he was expected to go the college route. I definitely don't think he came out of nowhere though.

As for being NHL ready, McDavid will obviously be there next season. Eichel too as long as he's prepared to leave college. Maybe Crouse because of his size and defensive ability. That's probably it though. Somebody like Strome might do well with another year in the OHL without having to be in McDavid's shadow.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Thanks for that - I think I've heard a bit about Marner, has he been a bit of a dark horse outside bet come good?

Wishful thinking going for top 5 maybe I guess but it's nice to dream.

Would (m)any of those guys be NHL ready for next season?

I think Marner was still considered a top-10 pick prior to this season, but his performance has definitely solidified that spot for him. Although LK might be able to provide more info. I know he went in the mid-1st round of the OHL draft in 2013 but that was because he was expected to go the college route. I definitely don't think he came out of nowhere though.

As for being NHL ready, McDavid will obviously be there next season. Eichel too as long as he's prepared to leave college. Maybe Crouse because of his size and defensive ability. That's probably it though. Somebody like Strome might do well with another year in the OHL without having to be in McDavid's shadow.

Not that I don't necessarily think he'll be a good NHLer, but if he falls into the Leafs' range I hope they don't take Crouse.  Someone did a study of all draft-eligible players in recent memory and their draft year PPG and it's very rare that someone with a lower PPG like him becomes an impactful NHL player.  I understand he contributes in other areas, but I think it's too much of a risky pick.

Would love Marner.  His stats are ridiculous.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Not that I don't necessarily think he'll be a good NHLer, but if he falls into the Leafs' range I hope they don't take Crouse.  Someone did a study of all draft-eligible players in recent memory and their draft year PPG and it's very rare that someone with a lower PPG like him becomes an impactful NHL player.  I understand he contributes in other areas, but I think it's too much of a risky pick.

They're not the same player, but to me it's the Ritchie debate all over again. If we're drafting 10-12 and he's available I'd consider picking him. But 6-9? There are probably better players available.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Not that I don't necessarily think he'll be a good NHLer, but if he falls into the Leafs' range I hope they don't take Crouse.  Someone did a study of all draft-eligible players in recent memory and their draft year PPG and it's very rare that someone with a lower PPG like him becomes an impactful NHL player.  I understand he contributes in other areas, but I think it's too much of a risky pick.

They're not the same player, but to me it's the Ritchie debate all over again. If we're drafting 10-12 and he's available I'd consider picking him. But 6-9? There are probably better players available.

Since I mentioned it, here's the article: http://thehockeywriters.com/attached-with-drafting-lawson-crouse-is-a-high-opportunity-cost/

Also the fact he's a winger.  If he was a C I'd probably be more interested.

 

[L K]

I think I have already made it abundantly known that I am a big fan of Marner.  The only real caveat I think is that he not a Center and he another smaller high skilled player.  Not tiny in a way that would prevent him from being an awesome top 6 player but Kadri, Kessel, Nylander, Marner I think leaves the Leafs in a bit of a bind size-wise.  If the Leafs are drafting top 4 I wonder if drafting Strome might be more appropriate.  Personally I think Marner will be the better pro but Strome isn't giving up much and you are getting a
A nice big potential #1 Center.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think I have already made it abundantly known that I am a big fan of Marner.  The only real caveat I think is that he not a Center and he another smaller high skilled player.  Not tiny in a way that would prevent him from being an awesome top 6 player but Kadri, Kessel, Nylander, Marner I think leaves the Leafs in a bit of a bind size-wise.  If the Leafs are drafting top 4 I wonder if drafting Strome might be more appropriate.  Personally I think Marner will be the better pro but Strome isn't giving up much and you are getting a
A nice big potential #1 Center.

What sold me on Strome is that when McDavid was away from Erie, while his points per game understandably went down, they were still very very good for his age.