Highlander
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Kadri will be a beast
2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
- Thread starter CarltonTheBear
- Start date
bustaheims
Active member
In some ways, the author of that blog post is being fairly optimistic. Some of the Leafs's who saw below average ES shooting percentages will improve. There's also the obvious issue that a significant portion of the players listed there won't be on the Leafs' roster this season, and, for some that will, their "career norm" is based on a very small sample size. Really, other than Kadri and Holland (and, to a lesser extent, Laich), the returnees were either within the typical season to season variance range or exceeded their career ES shooting percentage.
As for the rookies, projecting an 11-12% shooting percentage is pretty generous. A more typical very good rookie season sees the player with a shooting percentage much closer to 10%. Not necessarily a staggering difference, but enough to impact the projections being made, for sure - especially if they come in close to cumulative 9-9.5% shooting percentage (which I'd say is a more realistic projection).
While I do expect some improvement from the offence and goaltending, I don't think it will near as drastic as this blogger makes it out to be. I'd say we're more likely to see the team on pace for a 20-25 goal improvement in terms of differential before vets are moved out at the deadline.
As for the rookies, projecting an 11-12% shooting percentage is pretty generous. A more typical very good rookie season sees the player with a shooting percentage much closer to 10%. Not necessarily a staggering difference, but enough to impact the projections being made, for sure - especially if they come in close to cumulative 9-9.5% shooting percentage (which I'd say is a more realistic projection).
While I do expect some improvement from the offence and goaltending, I don't think it will near as drastic as this blogger makes it out to be. I'd say we're more likely to see the team on pace for a 20-25 goal improvement in terms of differential before vets are moved out at the deadline.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
My take on it for what it's worth...
There weren't a lot of games last season where they were outplayed, we saw a lot of one-goal games and I think that's what impressed a lot of people about Babcock, he took a team largely devoid of talent and made them competitive.
I think they are adding some more game breakers this season, granted they are young, but they are skilled enough that you'd probably back them to convert at a better rate than a guy like Froese or Grabner for example.
If I had to guess at their finish next season within a five spot range I'd probably put it at 18th-23rd.
There weren't a lot of games last season where they were outplayed, we saw a lot of one-goal games and I think that's what impressed a lot of people about Babcock, he took a team largely devoid of talent and made them competitive.
I think they are adding some more game breakers this season, granted they are young, but they are skilled enough that you'd probably back them to convert at a better rate than a guy like Froese or Grabner for example.
If I had to guess at their finish next season within a five spot range I'd probably put it at 18th-23rd.
Kin
New member
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
I think a lot of people see that as being something of a tradeoff. The younger players are probably more talented but raw and there may not be an immediate benefit to having them replace less talented but experienced veterans. I think a lot of the "competitiveness" we saw from last year's team was the result of having a bunch of older players well suited to what Babcock wanted to do. Guys who haven't really been replaced.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
I can see that, I suspect that's why we've seen them go back to the Polak well and the Martin signing too.
You also have guys like Hyman and Soshnikov that I think are probably capable of playing that tighter grinding game.
Matthews isn't going to be a defensive liability I wouldn't think, just based on what I've seen and read about him and Nylander will be a little more protected on the wing.
If Andersen provides close to middle-of-the-pack goaltending, I think they'll be close to where I pegged them.
There is of course the potential for them to catch lightning in a bottle with some of the young talent and surprise us all and equally with significant injuries they could quickly sink.
Kin
New member
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
I think there's a big difference between fitting into something stylistically and doing so with the consistency and determination that can really only be proven over an 82 game NHL season. Hyman, prior to last year, had never played more than 41 games in a season outside of high school. Soshnikov's highest total seems to be 59 games.
Like I said, maybe they're capable of being smart and consistent NHLers from day 1. If so, great. If not, which I think is probably more likely for rookies as a rule, then that's fine too. Progress from those guys is what we should be looking for as opposed to specific results.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
Well, again, I think there's always an NHL learning curve but even still there's not being a liability defensively and there's being a plus and one of the things I've mentioned elsewhere is that the Leafs right now have some serious gaps in terms of penalty killing forwards. Grabner's gone, Winnik's gone.
In terms of SH TOI/G most projections I've seen don't have any of the Leafs' top 6 forwards from last year coming back. So you're going to be relying a ton on Komarov and Laich and probably still need to figure out a second/third group out of guys who don't have a lot of experience doing it or guys who we've seen aren't really good at it(Bozak, JVR). And that's for a PK that was, as far as it goes, one of the team's strengths last year.
Again, progress will be nice. Immediate results? Seems like a lot to ask.
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
Sure. But I think we also have to keep in mind what success could very well mean for a lot of these guys. I've mentioned it before but rookie seasons for guys like Stamkos/Tavares resulted in them barely outproducing what PAP did last year. I don't think it's a good idea to go into next year with the idea that producing at that level is seen as a disappointment or failure.
bustaheims
Active member
Some other rookie seasons, for reference:
Kopitar - 61 points
Tavares - 54 points
Stamkos - 46 points
MacKinnon - 63 points
Landeskog - 52 points
Skinner - 63 points
Huberdeau - 53 point pace (31 in 48 games in lockout shortened season)
Eichel - 56 points
S Reinhart - 42 points
Bennett - 36 points
Barkov - 24 points in 54 games
Monahan - 34 points
A lot of these guys were thought of as highly as Nylander and Marner. There have obviously been some better seasons - Patrick Kane's rookie season, for instance - but these numbers represent a more realistic range we should be expecting from Marner, Nylander, and even Matthews this coming season.
Kopitar - 61 points
Tavares - 54 points
Stamkos - 46 points
MacKinnon - 63 points
Landeskog - 52 points
Skinner - 63 points
Huberdeau - 53 point pace (31 in 48 games in lockout shortened season)
Eichel - 56 points
S Reinhart - 42 points
Bennett - 36 points
Barkov - 24 points in 54 games
Monahan - 34 points
A lot of these guys were thought of as highly as Nylander and Marner. There have obviously been some better seasons - Patrick Kane's rookie season, for instance - but these numbers represent a more realistic range we should be expecting from Marner, Nylander, and even Matthews this coming season.
bustaheims said:
It's a good pool of players for comparison purposes, but it should be noted that almost all of those guys had their rookie seasons in the NHL at the age of 18 and in their D+1 season. Nylander will be 20 and D+3. A couple of comparable players from recent years that fit that mould would be Filip Forsberg and Max Domi, who scored 64 and 52 points respectively as rookies. I don't think he'll get to 64 points, but I mean if Max Domi can get to 50...
My completely unscientific projections for the big-3 would be the following (give or take a few points):
Matthews - 55 points
Nylander - 50 points
Marner - 35 points
It'll really all depend on usage though. I don't expect Marner to play a ton, and while Babcock says Matthews will start at 3C he'll probably move up that ladder fairly quickly.
bustaheims
Active member
CarltonTheBear said:
Neither do I - at least, not in the first couple months. I expect he'll get limited, sheltered minutes, and often see himself playing alongside the team's less talented forwards. Maybe a little PP time, depending on the night. I also expect he'll spend some nights watching from the pressbox. Of the 3 prominent rookie forwards, he's definitely the one I expect they'll be most cautious with.
bustaheims said:
I've said this before I'm pretty sure, but I think he'll basically have an identical season to Brad Boyes. In terms of both usage and results.
bustaheims
Active member
CarltonTheBear said:
Yeah, I can see that. Ideally, he'll have slightly better results/see his ice time increase past what Boyes was getting, but, it's certainly a reasonable scenario.
bustaheims said:
Boyes led all forwards in CF% and was among the leaders in P/60. The results were there, it's just the ice time that wasn't (because when you can play Michael Grabner on your top line instead you just have to).
That's where I see the comparison really striking. Marner should have a very good P/60 despite limited ice-time (similar to Drouin's first year too).
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
I wonder if a guy like Lupul might have a bit of a resurgence next year if he can stay healthier than normal, it might make him tradeable.
With a few extra skill players in the team, Lupul can certainly finish, just a hunch on my part.
With a few extra skill players in the team, Lupul can certainly finish, just a hunch on my part.
I've always liked him