2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[herman]

We're rounding the corner on the second last long weekend until hockey ramps back up, so we might as well have a new space to talk about the team going into next season.

First salvo is a bit nerdy:
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/893484019605790723
www.twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/893484019605790723
https://theathletic.com/81552/2017/08/04/by-the-numbers-what-are-the-ideal-forward-lines-for-the-maple-leafs-this-season/

Using Stimson's passing project data and playstyle clustering, Dom Luszczyszyn throws together a lineup optimized by role distribution. Both the article and playstyle link above show the shot metrics for various combinations.

Dom brings up an interesting thought about Babcock's philosophies on line makeup, ice time distribution, and the performance vs health trade-off.

How would you build the Leafs lines for 2017-18? (Trades are coming...)

 

[herman]

Mine: not as optimized for xG%, but less weird.

LW	C	RW	xG%
Marleau	Matthews	Nylander	55.0
Soshnikov	Kadri	Kapanen	55.0
JvR	Bozak	Marner	50.9
Leivo	Komarov/Moore	Hyman/Brown	44.6
			51.4

Keeps most familiar pairings, 4 PKers (2R, 2L), more than ample PPers.

With some TOI weighting on the xG% (Minutes: 19/17/16/8), the average xG% comes out to 52.5%

 

[CarltonTheBear]

[tweet]894565556501835776[/tweet]
[tweet]894566036779003904[/tweet]

I still wonder if this means that Rielly remains the "shutdown" guy, which means Hainsey is on that pairing as well. Which would be, something. Shades of overplaying Hunwick perhaps.

 

[AvroArrow]

I still wonder if this means that Rielly remains the "shutdown" guy, which means Hainsey is on that pairing as well. Which would be, something. Shades of overplaying Hunwick perhaps.

Given how last year went, I hope he splits the two pairings in that regard.  I think the Gardiner-Zaitsev pairing was good and really helped lighten Reilly's load at the end of the season/playoffs.

 

[disco]

[tweet]894565556501835776[/tweet]
[tweet]894566036779003904[/tweet]

I still wonder if this means that Rielly remains the "shutdown" guy, which means Hainsey is on that pairing as well. Which would be, something. Shades of overplaying Hunwick perhaps.

Babs working with what he has. Seems he wants a difference between Pairing 1 and 2 similar to differences between Lines 1/2 and 3. Makes sense. In the absence of a stud would be wise to specialize.

"... upper-echelon in the league so we needed a partner for him."
(also applies for Matthews' LW )

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/81946/2017/08/09/mirtle-how-will-the-leafs-cap-situation-look-when-the-kids-all-get-paid/

If the kids get paid, are we in cap trouble?

Yes, if we keep signing Martin-esque contracts. Otherwise, we should be okay, comfortably in the upper tier of cap usage, but not selling off the furniture, provided our prospect pipeline perennially pans out third liners and third pairing defenders and the occasional top-6 winger, top-4 defenseman.

 

[cabber24]

[tweet]894565556501835776[/tweet]
[tweet]894566036779003904[/tweet]

I still wonder if this means that Rielly remains the "shutdown" guy, which means Hainsey is on that pairing as well. Which would be, something. Shades of overplaying Hunwick perhaps.

Babs working with what he has. Seems he wants a difference between Pairing 1 and 2 similar to differences between Lines 1/2 and 3. Makes sense. In the absence of a stud would be wise to specialize.

"... upper-echelon in the league so we needed a partner for him."
(also applies for Matthews' LW )

The D is still underwhelming... but realistically who's available and what would the price be?

I think our next best D man will be a Swedish guy already in the Leafs system (Lijegren/Rosen/Borgman).

"Upper-echelon" might be a stretch for Reilly? I obviously hope not.

 

[disco]

https://theathletic.com/81946/2017/08/09/mirtle-how-will-the-leafs-cap-situation-look-when-the-kids-all-get-paid/

If the kids get paid, are we in cap trouble?

Yes, if we keep signing Martin-esque contracts. Otherwise, we should be okay, comfortably in the upper tier of cap usage, but not selling off the furniture, provided our prospect pipeline perennially pans out third liners and third pairing defenders and the occasional top-6 winger, top-4 defenseman.

Good point about the pipeline, the 'Hawks being a fine example. I'm thinking term will bring the AAV down a bit for these guys. We're starting to see it with Naz and Morgan's contract. They can get the security they crave, and they already seem mature and looking to be the best, low risk in them flaking out down the road. Also, the prospect of winning multiple Cups as a talented young group and keeping it together is a plus.

 

[cabber24]

https://theathletic.com/81946/2017/08/09/mirtle-how-will-the-leafs-cap-situation-look-when-the-kids-all-get-paid/

If the kids get paid, are we in cap trouble?

Yes, if we keep signing Martin-esque contracts. Otherwise, we should be okay, comfortably in the upper tier of cap usage, but not selling off the furniture, provided our prospect pipeline perennially pans out third liners and third pairing defenders and the occasional top-6 winger, top-4 defenseman.

Good point about the pipeline, the 'Hawks being a fine example. I'm thinking term will bring the AAV down a bit for these guys. We're starting to see it with Naz and Morgan's contract. They can get the security they crave, and they already seem mature and looking to be the best, low risk in them flaking out down the road. Also, the prospect of winning multiple Cups as a talented young group and keeping it together is a plus.

The stronger $CAD should send the cap up much higher. It's been fairly flat because of a bad CADUSD but we have gone from a low of 0.71 to 0.79 today. I expect the cap to go WAY UP! Thank god McDavid signed when he did, may have saved the NHL a tonne of dough.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/08/14/leafs-offseason-notebook-jvr-watch-sophomore-slumps-defence-planning/

Low key hoping Lou files a bunch of trades down the wire in the midst of the GoT season finale two Sundays from now.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Marchenko was waived today.

 

[Highlander]

he had a name like a cherry and not Don Cherry!  God I wish it was at least training camp.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521
www.twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521

Can someone verify this?

 

[Bill_Berg]

https://twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521
www.twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521

Can someone verify this?

Alas, if anywhere here were to, you'd probably be at the top of the list.


So....

 

[bustaheims]

https://twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521
www.twitter.com/oak_leafs/status/898248906273771521

Can someone verify this?

Hockey-reference verifies this very very specific scenario. Three other players did in in their age 21 season (Kessel, Kucherov, and Gomez).

EDIT: Add 10 minutes of ice time, and you add 2 more players - Gaborik and Laine. Bump it to 1350 total, and your add Pastrnak and Gomez's age 20 season.

Also, at 1300 minutes, Barkov, Eichel, Gagne, and P. Kane all missed the mark by 3 points or less.

 

[Fletch]

Looking into it, I found a cool stat. 

William wasn't the first Nylander to get 60+ points in under 1300 minutes.  Dad Michael did it in 2001-02 (although at a much older 29).

 

[Arn]

What is the significance of 1300 minutes? Works out around 16.50 per game over an 82 game season

 

[herman]

What is the significance of 1300 minutes? Works out around 16.50 per game over an 82 game season

The significance is basically, what parameters make it so that Nylander and Marner show up as the only other representatives on a list with Crosby.

 

[herman]

Alas, if anywhere here were to, you'd probably be at the top of the list.

Ahaha, maybe if I bothered to learn how to use hockey-reference's research tools. If I had access to the raw database, I could probably pull it out pretty easily with a bit of scripting.

busta, what's the secret?

Edit: Nevermind! Figured it out! This really highlights how disgustingly good Crosby is though.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Edit: Nevermind! Figured it out! This really highlights how disgustingly good Crosby is though.

Back in the good old days when scoring was bonkers post-lockout. 23 point-per-game players that season! Same as the past 3 seasons combined.