2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - Playoffs Edition

[herman]

How does this model work?  Why would the leafs be favored over Boston, Tampa and everyone else in their division?

Micah mentioned last week that Toronto's powerplay (particularly our shot volume and location) was a large contributing factor.

Here's his breakdown of the model: http://hockeyviz.com/txt/edgar

The line up estimation aspect takes into account the probability of a player under contract participating in the game as well as the projected TOI. Where Toronto might grade out above this model is that our deployment has generally been curated for balance throughout the season. Boston is top heavy up front and at the back, so their only adjustment option is to spread thinner. Toronto has the option to give Matthews, Nylander, Kadri, Marner, JvR even more minutes than they've received in the regular season and stack their incremental gains to tip win probabilities if they so choose.

Every individual's rates for shots, penalties, etc. is factored into the whole and the single game being played is run through a simulator for a result spread. Each second of the game is assessed for penalty chance or shot chance and the probabilities and rates are run accordingly.

Interestingly, he also has Minnesota with a small leg up on Winnipeg (which models out to overwhelming favourites in others') due to their defensive prowess at reducing shots (even without Suter).

Edit: I should also add that Micah noted that this iteration of the model didn't do so hot in the regular season.

 

[Frank E]

Edit: I should also add that Micah noted that this iteration of the model didn't do so hot in the regular season.

OK, what?  So his model isn't predictive at all?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Here's one area where the Leafs have a pretty huge edge over Boston: Since January 1st the Bruins are 5th in the league in minor penalties taken with 145 in 45 games. The Leafs in that same span are 30th with 107 minors in 42 games.

 

[Frank E]

Really glad to see there are no afternoon games, or stupid Sunday games, so far.

 

[iwas11in67]

Leafs road to the cup is extremely hard - Bruins, Lightning, Penquins and then the Predators. No wonder they call this the hardest sport to win the championship. To win 4 from each of those teams without home ice will be very tough.

 

[nutman]

Leafs road to the cup is extremely hard - Bruins, Lightning, Penquins and then the Predators. No wonder they call this the hardest sport to win the championship. To win 4 from each of those teams without home ice will be very tough.

Tampa, Pitt, and Nash have not made it there yet. Upsets can happen, but ya I agree it will be a tough road for whoever wins it all.

 

[Frank E]

Where's the thread from the beginning of the season where all you idiots made your predictions on where teams were to end up today?

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Where's the thread from the beginning of the season where all you idiots made your predictions on where teams were to end up today?

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4677.0

 

[Zee]

It's funny looking back at the old thread of predictions and seeing how highly regarded Edmonton was before the season began.  ;D

 

[Coco-puffs]

Nik was on fire (he wasn't alone in many of these predictions)...

You all know how this goes.

West

1. Edmonton
2. Nashville
3. Anaheim
4. Calgary
5. Chicago
6. Dallas
7. San Jose
8. Minnesota
9. St. Louis
10. Los Angeles
11. Arizona
12. Winnipeg
13. Vancouver
14. Colorado
15. Vegas

East

1. Pittsburgh
2. Tampa
3. Washington
4. Florida
5. Toronto
6. Montreal
7. Columbus
8. Philly
9. NYR
10. Ottawa
11. NYI
12. Carolina
13. Buffalo
14. Boston
15. New Jersey
16. Detroit

Cup Pick: Tampa over Edmonton
Awards: Connor McDavid for all of them. Norris, Adams, the lot.

12, 14, and 15 in the West all make the playoffs, while 1, 4, 5, 6 miss.
His East wasn't as bad, but Boston and New Jersey had way better years than he (or anyone, in NJ's case) expected.  Montreal was the only real miss at the top of the east.


As much as I'd love to point and laugh- I don't think I would have guessed much differently (except for Boston and Winnipeg).  What a weird year.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm proud to say I did not pick Edmonton to win their division.

 

[cabber24]

Where's the thread from the beginning of the season where all you idiots made your predictions on where teams were to end up today?

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4677.0

I had TOR playing OTT first round... I called 6 right in the east and just 5 right in the west. Teams to make the playoff that is.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

*looks at all my picks*

Well, better luck next year.

 

[herman]

This is not my own observation, but has there ever been a Leafs defenseman as unpolarizing as Travis Dermott? Everybody, and I mean everybody, from the analytically-inclined to the eye-guys-for-lyfe loves him.

 

[herman]

I sort of think that if the Leafs didn't completely pillory Steve Mason in the season opener, he would've gotten more leash with the Jets, and thus they'd miss out on the playoffs by a handful of points.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This is not my own observation, but has there ever been a Leafs defenseman as unpolarizing as Travis Dermott? Everybody, and I mean everybody, from the analytically-inclined to the eye-guys-for-lyfe loves him.

Andreas Borgman doesn't like him.

Also, I'm curious to see what eyes-folk say about him when he doesn't have a 95.2% on-ice save percentage.

 

[Zee]

I sort of think that if the Leafs didn't completely pillory Steve Mason in the season opener, he would've gotten more leash with the Jets, and thus they'd miss out on the playoffs by a handful of points.

It's almost like you want other Canadian teams to fail while the Leafs succeed.

 

[herman]

This is not my own observation, but has there ever been a Leafs defenseman as unpolarizing as Travis Dermott? Everybody, and I mean everybody, from the analytically-inclined to the eye-guys-for-lyfe loves him.

Andreas Borgman doesn't like him.

Also, I'm curious to see what eyes-folk say about him when he doesn't have a 95.2% on-ice save percentage.

I am still a bit wary about some of the NZ pinches he makes, but he is pretty ridiculously successful a great majority of the time getting a stick on the puck and forcing it out of control. He has held back on blue-line pinches more than expected so I think he's actually playing his version of 'cautiously'.

 

[herman]

I sort of think that if the Leafs didn't completely pillory Steve Mason in the season opener, he would've gotten more leash with the Jets, and thus they'd miss out on the playoffs by a handful of points.

It's almost like you want other Canadian teams to fail while the Leafs succeed.

Chaos is a ladder.

 

[rdowdall]

This is not my own observation, but has there ever been a Leafs defenseman as unpolarizing as Travis Dermott? Everybody, and I mean everybody, from the analytically-inclined to the eye-guys-for-lyfe loves him.

Andreas Borgman doesn't like him.

Also, I'm curious to see what eyes-folk say about him when he doesn't have a 95.2% on-ice save percentage.

I am still a bit wary about some of the NZ pinches he makes, but he is pretty ridiculously successful a great majority of the time getting a stick on the puck and forcing it out of control. He has held back on blue-line pinches more than expected so I think he's actually playing his version of 'cautiously'.

What is his ceiling?  Can this guy get any better, or is he pretty much where he is going to be?  Someone I know said that they thought that he would end up being better than Rielly in a couple of years because Dermott is better in his own end.  I'm not sure I totally buy in to that, but I do think that Dermott skates incredibly well and seems to have good instincts.