2017 Playoff Watch

[Zee]

Leafs' loss on Tuesday combined with Boston's win last night likely puts passing the Bruins out of reach for the Leafs.

Could still change.  A Leafs win with a Boston loss tonight would put the Leafs 4 back with 2 games in hand.  Of course the way the Leafs are playing I'm not banking on that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Leafs' loss on Tuesday combined with Boston's win last night likely puts passing the Bruins out of reach for the Leafs.

I'd wait until the game vs. Boston on Monday to say that. A loss there shuts the door, a win still keeps it open (albeit slightly).

 

[rdowdall]

Leafs' loss on Tuesday combined with Boston's win last night likely puts passing the Bruins out of reach for the Leafs.

I'd wait until the game vs. Boston on Monday to say that. A loss there shuts the door, a win still keeps it open (albeit slightly).

Yeah the two games at hand mitigates some of the required effort to catch them.  Although the Leafs do need to win those two games at hand.  I would say that back to back loses in the next couple of games pretty much puts the playoffs out of reach. 

Which all told, isn't all that much of a bad thing.

 

[ZBBM]

Leafs' loss on Tuesday combined with Boston's win last night likely puts passing the Bruins out of reach for the Leafs.

I'd wait until the game vs. Boston on Monday to say that. A loss there shuts the door, a win still keeps it open (albeit slightly).

Yeah the two games at hand mitigates some of the required effort to catch them.  Although the Leafs do need to win those two games at hand.  I would say that back to back loses in the next couple of games pretty much puts the playoffs out of reach. 

Which all told, isn't all that much of a bad thing.

Conversely, if we win the next 3 I'd bet good money that we're in.

 

[louisstamos]

Leafs' loss on Tuesday combined with Boston's win last night likely puts passing the Bruins out of reach for the Leafs.

I'd wait until the game vs. Boston on Monday to say that. A loss there shuts the door, a win still keeps it open (albeit slightly).

Yeah the two games at hand mitigates some of the required effort to catch them.  Although the Leafs do need to win those two games at hand.  I would say that back to back loses in the next couple of games pretty much puts the playoffs out of reach. 

Which all told, isn't all that much of a bad thing.

Conversely, if we win the next 3 I'd bet good money that we're in.

I think they could even stand to lose to Chicago - as long as they beat both Tampa and Boston (in regulation), that helps their chances tenfold.

At this point they've got 14 games left.  That's the equivalent of 2 7-game playoff series.  They want in, they've got to win (so at least 4-3) both those playoff series.

 

[bustaheims]

Could still change.  A Leafs win with a Boston loss tonight would put the Leafs 4 back with 2 games in hand.  Of course the way the Leafs are playing I'm not banking on that.

They'd need 5 points to pass the Bruins, as Boston holds the tie-breaker. It's still possible, but I'd say very unlikely.

 

[Frank E]

This sucks. 

 

[mr grieves]

Leafs' loss on Tuesday combined with Boston's win last night likely puts passing the Bruins out of reach for the Leafs.

I'd wait until the game vs. Boston on Monday to say that. A loss there shuts the door, a win still keeps it open (albeit slightly).

Yeah the two games at hand mitigates some of the required effort to catch them.  Although the Leafs do need to win those two games at hand.  I would say that back to back loses in the next couple of games pretty much puts the playoffs out of reach. 

Which all told, isn't all that much of a bad thing.

The good things:
1. Somewhat higher pick
2. Can shut down Rielly for the season
3. Can call up some AHLers for a few games

The bad things:
1. Result of tailing off in play, not injury, raising questions about the coach's ability to get the most of what he's got. Or maybe the core. But if you were told Kadri was going to have a career year, JvR would be around all season, three top rookies would be on ~60 point paces, the guy from Russia would be solid, and the goaltending would be league average, wouldn't you expect them to be on the inside?

 

[Zee]

Could still change.  A Leafs win with a Boston loss tonight would put the Leafs 4 back with 2 games in hand.  Of course the way the Leafs are playing I'm not banking on that.

They'd need 5 points to pass the Bruins, as Boston holds the tie-breaker. It's still possible, but I'd say very unlikely.

Yeah it doesn't look good today, but then again the Bruins have also been playing at a 131 point pace the last 15 games, when the hell is that team going to hit the skids?  I'm expecting them to lose a bunch at some point.

 

[bustaheims]

Yeah it doesn't look good today, but then again the Bruins have also been playing at a 131 point pace the last 15 games, when the hell is that team going to hit the skids?  I'm expecting them to lose a bunch at some point.

I wouldn't. They'll slow down, sure, but I'll be very surprised if they're not above .500 the rest of the way. They only have 12 games left, and other than games against Chicago and Washington, it's not a particularly rough stretch, either - not super easy, but, mostly against middle of the pack teams.

 

[bustaheims]

Result of tailing off in play, not injury, raising questions about the coach's ability to get the most of what he's got. Or maybe the core. But if you were told Kadri was going to have a career year, JvR would be around all season, three top rookies would be on ~60 point paces, the guy from Russia would be solid, and the goaltending would be league average, wouldn't you expect them to be on the inside?

Not really, no. Without clear improvements on the defensive side of things, with those things in mind, I'd expect them to be right around where they are. All those numbers really tell me is that their offence has improved significantly, while their goaltending has only improved nominally (it's up .007 from last season - which works out to about 1 goal less allowed per 4 games) and their defensive play has arguably gotten worse (a symptom of a roster that's filled with players in their first full NHL season).

I also don't think raises those questions at all. This isn't a veteran team. What we're seeing is inexperience in action.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I wouldn't. They'll slow down, sure, but I'll be very surprised if they're not above .500 the rest of the way. They only have 12 games left, and other than games against Chicago and Washington, it's not a particularly rough stretch, either - not super easy, but, mostly against middle of the pack teams.

Boston and Tampa play each other twice still before the season ends too. We'll likely have to be rooting for the Bruins in those matchups.

 

[ZBBM]

Result of tailing off in play, not injury, raising questions about the coach's ability to get the most of what he's got. Or maybe the core. But if you were told Kadri was going to have a career year, JvR would be around all season, three top rookies would be on ~60 point paces, the guy from Russia would be solid, and the goaltending would be league average, wouldn't you expect them to be on the inside?

Not really, no. Without clear improvements on the defensive side of things, with those things in mind, I'd expect them to be right around where they are. All those numbers really tell me is that their offence has improved significantly, while their goaltending has only improved nominally (it's up .007 from last season - which works out to about 1 goal less allowed per 4 games) and their defensive play has arguably gotten worse (a symptom of a roster that's filled with players in their first full NHL season).

I also don't think raises those questions at all. This isn't a veteran team. What we're seeing is inexperience in action.

Further to that, people should also get ready for the very real possibility that the team backslides next season.  We've been awfully lucky in terms of injuries, for one.  For another, Kadri's career year (in terms of goal scoring) may turn out to be like Kulie's -- a one-time anomaly.  And the superrookies may all have sophomore slumps.  And we'll probably be injecting at least a couple more rookies into the lineup next year.

 

[rdowdall]

Leafs' loss on Tuesday combined with Boston's win last night likely puts passing the Bruins out of reach for the Leafs.

I'd wait until the game vs. Boston on Monday to say that. A loss there shuts the door, a win still keeps it open (albeit slightly).

Yeah the two games at hand mitigates some of the required effort to catch them.  Although the Leafs do need to win those two games at hand.  I would say that back to back loses in the next couple of games pretty much puts the playoffs out of reach. 

Which all told, isn't all that much of a bad thing.

The good things:
1. Somewhat higher pick
2. Can shut down Rielly for the season
3. Can call up some AHLers for a few games

The bad things:
1. Result of tailing off in play, not injury, raising questions about the coach's ability to get the most of what he's got. Or maybe the core. But if you were told Kadri was going to have a career year, JvR would be around all season, three top rookies would be on ~60 point paces, the guy from Russia would be solid, and the goaltending would be league average, wouldn't you expect them to be on the inside?

No.  All those things sound great, but you have to put them in to context League wide and in reference to where this team was last year.  Kadri having a career year still puts him at 30 goals.  That effectively replaces the 30 goals the team lost when Kessel left.  The Kessel teams missed the playoffs so it isn't all that surprising that a team that finishes near the bottom that then replaces that doesn't move the needle forward all that much.  Ditto the same argument for JVR.  He played full seasons with Kessel.  So with those two acheivements maybe you are getting a team back in to the bottom 5 - bottom 8 area that the team would finish during those years.  That's where the team would finish in those years, but the team that the Leafs had last year, finished dead last in the league.  Perhaps not as bad as the Avalanche of this year, but still pretty bad. 

Having three rookies that are scoring at a 60 point pace is great.  It means that the offense is probably more consistent.  However, rookies make mistakes.  There are bound to be goals scored when they are on the ice due to those mistakes.  This means that the defensive side is a little weaker.  So the gains in offense come at the price of a loss on the defensive side.  How much does that move the needle from a dead last team, or even a bottom 5 to bottom 8 to the top 16?

Zaitsev has been pretty solid for much of the season, but the Leafs had Phanuef for 51 games last year, and he was pretty solid as well.  So again, how much does replacing Phanuef with a solid rookie move the needle on this team towards a playoff contender?

As for the goaltending here are the numbers for the Leafs from 2015-2016:

Player Name     GP Min GA GAA W L T Svs Pct       EN SO
James Reimer     32 1797 75 2.49 11 12 7 845 0.918 4 0
Jonathan Bernier    38 2131 103 2.88 12 21 3 1011 0.908 7 3
Garret Sparks     17 970 49 3.02 6 9 1 407 0.893 2 1

How much better is that than this:

# Name               GP Min GA GAA W L T ENG SO Saves SvPct
30 Antoine Bibeau         2 122 4 1.99 1 1 0 0 0 51         0.927
35 Curtis McElhinney 8 447 20 2.70 3 4 0 0 1 233         0.921
31 Frederik Andersen 56 3287 149 2.73 27 15 13 0 3 1619         0.916
35 Jhonas Enroth         6 277 18 3.94 0 3 1 0 0 123         0.872

Just a quick look at the numbers would seem to indicate that the goaltending is performing around the same rate as last year.

So adding all this up, I think it's fair to say they have overachieved to get where they are at and the individual accomplishments that some of the players are enjoying aren't enough to push this team into the upper echelon.  Therefore I don't think missing the playoffs should raise any questions. 

Also you can do this excercise with other teams.  If I told you that a team had a top 5 scorer in the League, the top scoring rookie three other forwards who were flirting with a 60 point pace, a true #1 dman and a solid top four d group, would you expect them to be on the outside looking in for the playoffs at this point in the season?

When looking at the Leafs today, it isn't about what they can do today.  It's about what they can do in three years.  The concern that I have currently, is how are they going to improve the defence.

 

[bustaheims]

Further to that, people should also get ready for the very real possibility that the team backslides next season.  We've been awfully lucky in terms of injuries, for one.  For another, Kadri's career year (in terms of goal scoring) may turn out to be like Kulie's -- a one-time anomaly.  And the superrookies may all have sophomore slumps.  And we'll probably be injecting at least a couple more rookies into the lineup next year.

Well, the nice thing about Kadri's season is that he hasn't put up an unsustainable shooting percentage. In terms of shooting percentage, he's scored at/near this rate before. He's just shooting more - roughly at the same pace he did last season, which also indicates it's somewhat sustainable. He may not push 30+ goals next season, but he's a pretty safe bet for 20+. Everything else you point is, though, is absolutely a real concern. There's real potential for regression or stagnation next season - but, it only really becomes an issue if it persists for multiple seasons.

 

[Zee]

Leafs can still win the division if they close out the season 14-0. We've had crazy win streaks this year with Columbus winning 16, Minnesota 12 and Calgary 10. One more crazy win streak now for the Leafs.

So let it be written.

 

[Zee]

Leafs can still win the division if they close out the season 14-0. We've had crazy win streaks this year with Columbus winning 16, Minnesota 12 and Calgary 10. One more crazy win streak now for the Leafs.

So let it be written.

1 down, 13 to to go. If you're gonna dream might as well dream big.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Coming off a perfect night for the Leafs playoff hopes.

 

[disco]

Ottawa at Boston tonight.
Sens lead 2-1 in the 2nd.

 

[louisstamos]

Ottawa at Boston tonight.
Sens lead 2-1 in the 2nd.

Hang on to win 3-2!  Leafs now 1 point behind Boston with 2 games in hand!