2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1057656840820084736
*Hyman on the PP alert*
I actually don't think this is a terrible idea, although PP2 ain't scoring anyway so what's the point.
*Hyman on the PP alert*
I actually don't think this is a terrible idea, although PP2 ain't scoring anyway so what's the point.
Babcock on Monday:
https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1056940688745521152
Guess he lost his way *shrugs*
https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1056940688745521152
Guess he lost his way *shrugs*
Coco-puffs
New member
herman said:
HAHHAHAA... Auston's scream there is gonna get some serious airplay.
Guilt Trip
Active member
If it's real...On a positive note, his arm moved pretty fast lolCoco-puffs said:
Highlander
Active member
When is a Goat going to get a break around here?princedpw said:
Heroic Shrimp
Active member
herman said:
I have no power to make this happen, but it is my wish that on the very rare occasion that Gauthier should score in Toronto, the fans all start bleating like goats.
If I were dying, it would be my Make-A-Wish.
herman
Well-known member
princedpw said:
Similar to the passing stats, there are so many shot attempts within a quarter of a season that the data is already fairly normalized, barring a drastic change in deployment and usage.
Right now, Gauthier is starting most of his shifts in his own zone and ending most of his shifts in the opponents' zone and nobody getting many shots through, let alone scoring.
For a 4th line, this is an acceptable level of effectiveness. Adding Engvall at some point might also tip the balance towards good. As much as I'd like overmatch scoring to come from the 4th line, if they're only afforded 10ish minutes, I'm okay with them costing pennies and nullifying all hockey-related activities for their ice time.
herman said:
Well, we're not quite yet at the quarter mark of the season, are we?
Also, in this case sample size doesn't just mean games played. We also have to realize that we're dealing with a pretty small amount of total shot attempts in Gauthier's stats because of his low minutes. A 57% CF sounds amazing, sure. But if you look at the raw numbers you'll find that on average the shot attempts while he's on the ice are only about 8-6 per game in Toronto's favour. I mean that's nice and all but a 57% CF for a 15-minute a night player is a completely different thing than a 57% CF for a 8-minute a night player.
herman
Well-known member
https://twitter.com/StapeAthletic/status/1058004638643953665
This Q&A is a worthwhile read if you're interested in analytics but not really into the mathy side of things.
The Leafs are the only team to publicize that they've used Clear Sight's shot analytics data.
You might remember Steve Valiquette's name from the Royal Road article I've posted here previously.
He talks about how his post-retirement career takes the lessons he learned as a backup goaltender to cut through the noise of the NHL's public stats.
That last part might give an indication as to why the Leafs have overused the stretch pass play. When it works, it's a 27-30% chance at a goal. When it doesn't, it's the puck in a reset position. What they need to do more is use a larger variety of plays to take advantage of a defense that is defending the stretch pass (a la football runs vs throws).
He also addresses my least favourite play of all:
Forward down low curls up and feeds a pass low to high for a defenseman to reset the cycle, but the defenseman fires a screen-free slapper at the goalie. This is Roman Polak and Ron Hainsey in a nutshell.
This Q&A is a worthwhile read if you're interested in analytics but not really into the mathy side of things.
The Leafs are the only team to publicize that they've used Clear Sight's shot analytics data.
You might remember Steve Valiquette's name from the Royal Road article I've posted here previously.
He talks about how his post-retirement career takes the lessons he learned as a backup goaltender to cut through the noise of the NHL's public stats.
That last part might give an indication as to why the Leafs have overused the stretch pass play. When it works, it's a 27-30% chance at a goal. When it doesn't, it's the puck in a reset position. What they need to do more is use a larger variety of plays to take advantage of a defense that is defending the stretch pass (a la football runs vs throws).
He also addresses my least favourite play of all:
Forward down low curls up and feeds a pass low to high for a defenseman to reset the cycle, but the defenseman fires a screen-free slapper at the goalie. This is Roman Polak and Ron Hainsey in a nutshell.
herman
Well-known member
CarltonTheBear said:
That's very fair to say. The linked Twitter thread posted a video from 2015 and Dubas' take on Gauthier's numbers back then show he was already pretty positive about what Gauthier brings to the table; there's quite a sample size by now. It's definitely worth anybody's time to scroll through that thread's highlights to see some of the reasons why the numbers are shaking out that way.
Babcock said recently that he always expected Gauthier would show better in the NHL rather than the lower leagues. I took that to mean Gauthier plays the way Babcock likes in his non-scorers: structurally obedient, greater coverage than average, super super boring; in the NHL where it is a lot less chaotic, that's going to have an effect. Gauthier can't shoot worth a lick, but he really does know how to position his body, keep his stick on the puck, and cut off passing lanes. Even though hockey is not his one true love, I can see he definitely has hockey smarts to work with (didn't he turn down an Ivy League school? I guess that's sort of not smart).
With the Barb-boost to his skating, his body is now catching up with his mind. With NHL-ish wingers, and NHL-ish structure, Gauthier is starting to be able to assert himself on the ice the way he has with the Marlies. In other words, he's dependable and because scoring is usually an accident for him, he will always be very cap friendly.