2018-19 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[herman]

https://twitter.com/jonassiegel/status/1083778747986333697

Double shifting Matthews is a valid solution. On unit 1, he's not the primary carrier and he's just a stationary weapon. On unit 2, he is integral to the attack, but still not the primary carrier.

 

[Coco-puffs]

https://twitter.com/jonassiegel/status/1083778747986333697

Double shifting Matthews is a valid solution. On unit 1, he's not the primary carrier and he's just a stationary weapon. On unit 2, he is integral to the attack, but still not the primary carrier.

I think thats why anyone complaining about Kappy being on PP1 shouldn't worry too much.  He's not going to play a whole shift with it very often IMO.  Let Matthews play 80-90 seconds of each PP, time with both units.

 

[Zee]

I mean, it would help if they got more than 1 frickin PP chance a game to try things out.

 

[ZBBM]

I mean, it would help if they got more than 1 frickin PP chance a game to try things out.

You got that right podner.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I think thats why anyone complaining about Kappy being on PP1 shouldn't worry too much.  He's not going to play a whole shift with it very often IMO.  Let Matthews play 80-90 seconds of each PP, time with both units.

O'Dog was talking with Ray Ferraro about Kappy and the PP and they both said maybe the reason Babs isn't using him there is because he doesn't have the capabilities for it. His game is all about speed and that's something you really don't use on a PP. They both said the PP is a total different animal where you have to be thinking at least one move ahead. Ferraro said he can't put into words what the difference is compared to regular play but said it's a lot different and some guys, no matter how talented, just aren't good at it. They didn't suggest Kappy isn't one of them but that could be the reason Babs doesn't use him. On the PK however, speed is a bonus. Makes sense. I'm ok with him not getting too much of a look ir having too much success. Would like to keep him at a reasonable contract.

 

[hockeyfan1]

What Babcock wants out of his players:  the win against New Jeraey Thursday night was demonstration enough on obviously what he means.  The Leafs had their best possession game of the season at nearly 65%.

Note:  This article was written before the Devils-Leafs tilt.

Babcock:

Well, I like lots of things about us,? head coach Mike Babcock says. ?I like our people, I like how bad we want to be good, I like our leadership, I like our depth. Sometimes I don?t like our details. I think we got to to be a way heavier team. Being heavy isn?t getting on a scale and measuring yourself: it?s a state of mind.

?It?s heavy on offence. It?s having the puck, it?s getting the puck back all the time, it?s checking the puck, it?s putting your work in front of your skill, it?s being determined offensively, instead of coming down and having a rush and being one and done. It?s multiple-shot shifts, it?s having some jam ? And so I think we can do a better job there, and I think we can continually get better defensively so we are way better offensively. So we have a lot of work to do.?

Tavares:

?I think ? that feeling going into games that you can just kill another team?s will to win,? says Tavares, when asked what he wants to see between now and season?s end. ?And just knowing that you just feel that when (the Leafs) come into your building, you just know what a tough night it?s going to be. Even if you play your best, you know the odds are still probably against you, where we just have the ability to kind of take games over that way, and generate that momentum. It?s hard to do that on a consistent basis.?

https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/opinion/2019/01/05/the-half-glass-is-full-but-the-maple-leafs-feel-theres-more-to-prove-in-the-stretch-run.html

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1079029483561193473
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1079212289683832833
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1080815030168403968
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1081188645648896000
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1081535976814665730
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1081936108915544064
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1082260718123139072
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1082659170548178949
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1083386322881048576
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1083740577634623489
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1084099108703559680
https://twitter.com/MapleLeafs/status/1084291624941826049

Sorry not sorry.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/51Leafs/status/1084488347169505280

 

[TML fan]

Maybe one day Holl will even get into a game.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/51Leafs/status/1084488347169505280

I can see Rosen getting the call this year. From all accounts he's having a good year and had an excellent playoff last year.
I think if Lilypad gets back and plays well he still may get a shot up here this year.

 

[Bender]

Is there even a downside in trying Rosen over Zaitsev at this point?

https://twitter.com/51Leafs/status/1084488347169505280

I can see Rosen getting the call this year. From all accounts he's having a good year and had an excellent playoff last year.
I think if Lilypad gets back and plays well he still may get a shot up here this year.

 

[herman]

Is there even a downside in trying Rosen over Zaitsev at this point?

Stephen Burtch has been chatting about Zaitsev lately:
https://twitter.com/SteveBurtch/status/1084641076512575488

The defensive component of Evolving Hockey's GAR model paints a positive picture of Zaitsev's contributions. The model also shows that Zaitsev is heavily skewed defensive, Rielly is heavily skewed offensive, and Gardiner is generally balanced.

Gardiner also had some glowing observations about his partner's defensive capabilities over on The Athletic recently. As a pair, 51-22 has improved as the season wears on (given that they were bordering on trash earlier, that's not a high hurdle). Zaitsev is the Zach Hyman of the D corps, and Babcock loves him as such.

I can see Hyman's value with the eyeballs and on the shot stats, but it's harder to come across with Zaitsev. I see he has a lot of tools that should lead to being a good defenseman (fantastic, fantastic skater), and I know he's being instructed to play a very specifically simplified game which probably colours the results.

It's pretty hard to use the eyes to gauge defense because the brain gravitates towards remembering and thus emphasizing goals (either for or against) and discarding the many other little plays off the puck that aren't directly statted. Skating routes to shade off an attack long enough for a teammate to engage a clean takeaway, for example -- teammate gets the credit on the statsheet, but it wouldn't have been possible without that 'assist'. I can't remember specific instances of Zaitsev doing this, but Gardiner certainly does, as well as Hainsey.

As for the actual question posed, Rosen is more Rielly than Zaitsev, and putting him in a position of disadvantage (weak-side) might nullify whatever offensive contribution he adds over Zaitsev.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I once saw someone call Stephen Burtch the Seth Abramson of Hockey Twitter and my life has never quite been the same since then.

 

[herman]

I once saw someone call Stephen Burtch the Seth Abramson of Hockey Twitter and my life has never quite been the same since then.

I'm betting he has a lot of blue yarn walls.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I once saw someone call Stephen Burtch the Seth Abramson of Hockey Twitter and my life has never quite been the same since then.

I'm betting he has a lot of blue yarn walls.

 

[herman]

Perusing the GAR model is also fun to see how Gardiner has been the best Leaf defenseman for the past 3 years and it's not even particularly close. Rielly this year is buoyed significantly by his offense and is the best offensive season ever for a Leafs defenseman.

2016-2019 (so far)

Player		Goals Above Replacement
Victor Hedman		42.2
Mark Giordano		39.5
Brett Pesce		35
Erik Karlsson		34.6
Jared Spurgeon		34
John Klingberg		34
Jake Gardiner		33.3
Colton Parayko		30.9
John Carlson		30.1
Alex Pietrangelo		29.4

 

[Zee]

Perusing the GAR model is also fun to see how Gardiner has been the best Leaf defenseman for the past 3 years and it's not even particularly close. Rielly this year is buoyed significantly by his offense and is the best offensive season ever for a Leafs defenseman.

2016-2019 (so far)

Player		Goals Above Replacement
Victor Hedman		42.2
Mark Giordano		39.5
Brett Pesce		35
Erik Karlsson		34.6
Jared Spurgeon		34
John Klingberg		34
Jake Gardiner		33.3
Colton Parayko		30.9
John Carlson		30.1
Alex Pietrangelo		29.4

Leafs fans that complain about Gardiner really have no idea how bad the Leafs defense would be without him in the lineup.  Having Jake out of this current group and trying to plug in a Marincin or Holl or something like Rosen would be a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[princedpw]

Perusing the GAR model is also fun to see how Gardiner has been the best Leaf defenseman for the past 3 years and it's not even particularly close. Rielly this year is buoyed significantly by his offense and is the best offensive season ever for a Leafs defenseman.

2016-2019 (so far)

Player		Goals Above Replacement
Victor Hedman		42.2
Mark Giordano		39.5
Brett Pesce		35
Erik Karlsson		34.6
Jared Spurgeon		34
John Klingberg		34
Jake Gardiner		33.3
Colton Parayko		30.9
John Carlson		30.1
Alex Pietrangelo		29.4

I don't know how this works but a metric that ranks Alex Tuch, Nate Schmidt and Leon Draisatl (among many others) this year over Connor McDavid seems a little fishy:

https://evolving-hockey.com/

 

[herman]

Perusing the GAR model is also fun to see how Gardiner has been the best Leaf defenseman for the past 3 years and it's not even particularly close. Rielly this year is buoyed significantly by his offense and is the best offensive season ever for a Leafs defenseman.

2016-2019 (so far)

Player		Goals Above Replacement
Victor Hedman		42.2
Mark Giordano		39.5
Brett Pesce		35
Erik Karlsson		34.6
Jared Spurgeon		34
John Klingberg		34
Jake Gardiner		33.3
Colton Parayko		30.9
John Carlson		30.1
Alex Pietrangelo		29.4

I don't know how this works but a metric that ranks Alex Tuch, Nate Schmidt and Leon Draisatl (among many others) this year over Connor McDavid seems a little fishy:

https://evolving-hockey.com/

He's getting a lot of points, but this model measures impact across several elements of the game that contribute to goals.

If you grab the last 3 seasons combined (2016-2019) rather than just this current incomplete season, McDavid is sitting pretty at 62 GAR, nearly 20 pts higher than the next batch of awesome players (Pastrnak, Stone, Kucherov).

 

[Guilt Trip]

Leafs fans that complain about Gardiner really have no idea how bad the Leafs defense would be without him in the lineup.  Having Jake out of this current group and trying to plug in a Marincin or Holl or something like Rosen would be a disaster waiting to happen.

We complain because from a pure defensive view he's not very good. Too many mistakes. We're not asking for a plug to take his spot. We need an upgrade in his spot because he's not good enough defensively to get the minutes he does. We all know that the Leafs aren't going to pay him whatever he'll get on the open market either so he becomes an own rental or we move him at the deadline.